Buying RAM, good time to buy?

[Raven]

My friend built a computer last December. I remember him paying nearly a whopping $200 for 2 GB back then.

He's kicking himself now, and we're wondering how the DRAM forecast is looking.
The reason I've been told for the high prices last fall, and the subsequent drop was because the natural back to school and holiday demand in the fall was excerbated by Vista's high memory requirements and imminent release.

After the holiday season, excess supply pushed prices down to where they are now. DDR3 coming soon also helps.

I'm planning to build my new computer next spring, and we're wondering if it's a good idea to buy 4GB (I run virtual machines) now. I can get them for $120-140, which is incredibly cheap.

Prices in the computer industry naturally fall over time, but from what I've observed, it seems the memory market fluctuates more than other sectors, like CPUs or graphics. (I suppose this is because DRAM chips and the equipment to make them are ubiquitious.)

Memory price will continue to drop in the long term, of course, but it will spike upward in the short term as the current state of oversupply corrects itself, and people buy new computers for school and christmas. Correct me if I'm wrong, I'm just throwing out a prediction here.

However, since I'm not buying till I get back from the Air Force next spring, I'll skip over most of that seasonal demand.

My considerations are:
- How temporary is the current state of memory prices right now? Is the current oversupply a volatile one? How will DDR3 affect DDR2 prices? Will the iPhone affect Samsung's DRAM production?

- I won't need a new computer until late summer/fall '08. I have a crazy idea to hold off for Nehalem, unless there's some game I want to play before then. Then a Penryn/Barcelona + G92 (if it's out by then) will suit me fine. Intel usually drops it's prices sometime in April anyway.

Anyone speculate about the state of DDR3 in H2 '08, and how Nehalem will play with DDR2/DDR3?

- Is it a good idea in general to buy computer parts when they're cheap if you think you might be needing them in the future?

- My stuff is going to be in a storage locker for 6 months or so. It gets pretty hot in those things, if not as hot as a CPU or graphics core.
I don't think memory doesn't get that hot though, and I don't think it's a good idea to subject it to months of baking like that.
Now I'll probably arrange to have my computer stored in a more controlled environment, but it does raise the matter that I'll have to store this stuff after I buy it until I'm ready to use it.


Now it isn't a huge deal whether I buy now or later; $140 for 4GB RAM is chump change.
But it makes for interesting discussion, and I don't have anything better to do. Exploring the reasons why I should or shouldn't go for it is entertaining; saving a few bucks is a secondary concern. (Not that I wouldn't mind saving a few bucks.)

[Arthur_Tuxedo]

I predict that prices will go back up and stay there for at least a few months. I'd say it will probably be 6 months or more after they start going up before they come back down to where they are now. I have nothing but my own intuition to back that up, but I've been following PC component trends fairly closely for years and have a degree in Economics (not that the discipline of Economics is good at making accurate predictions about specific products).

Also, I wouldn't expect any real performance jump going to DDR3. RAM speed and actual performance doesn't correlate very closely unless you're using truly fossilized RAM.

[Typhonis 1]

Depends where you get the Ram as well I paid $179 US for 2 gigs of ram and that included shipping to where I lived.

[Uraniun235]

Crucial supposedly just jumped their prices back up and triggered a wave of price increases, so anyone looking to take advantage of low prices should hop on it before it's too late.

I predict that prices will go back up and stay there for at least a few months. I'd say it will probably be 6 months or more after they start going up before they come back down to where they are now. I have nothing but my own intuition to back that up, but I've been following PC component trends fairly closely for years and have a degree in Economics (not that the discipline of Economics is good at making accurate predictions about specific products).

Supposedly, RAM prices go up as fall approaches, due to increased "Back to School" computer sales.

Also, I wouldn't expect any real performance jump going to DDR3. RAM speed and actual performance doesn't correlate very closely unless you're using truly fossilized RAM.

I think the concern isn't so much with performance as with "futureproofing" - the idea being that it would suck to dump money in RAM that can't be carried over to the next CPU and motherboard. For some people, their upgrade cycle is long enough that this isn't worth considering. For others, it's more relevant.

For example, I'm currently using DDR memory. If I put any more money into DDR, it won't carry over to my next motherboard. However, if I turned around and bought a new CPU, motherboard, and DDR2 memory within the next few months, the DDR2 memory may well not carry over to the next motherboard either, because DDR3 is just around the corner.