The Big One

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Stuart
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Post by Stuart »

MariusRoi wrote: I was wondering a few days ago - what does the US look like from a mental health perspective in TBO (ie: stigmas, ect) relative to OTL?
Probably no different in strict mental health terms. The PTSD rate in Russian Front veterans is certainly significantly higher than in US Army veterans from OTL. The Russian Front was a stressful experience (how's that for understatement!). The PTSD on the SAC bomber crews is probably inconsequential, far lower than that of OTL bomber crews. Viewed objectively, other than the B-29 crews, SAC had a very easy war; the B-36s spent two years training then flew one mission that turned out to be pretty much of a cakewalk.

As for stigma effect, I went largely by the experience of the 509th; they showed no difference from any other bomb group. There's no public stigma attached to the nuclear bombing in the population as a whole, the attitude is more, "Thank God, they got our boys off the Russian Front". In Eye of the Beholder (set in 1951) TBO a Hispanic girl is a minor character and she goes to the church each Sunday to light a candle for the B-36 crews because her brothers and cousins had been drafted into the US Army but The Big One saved them from going to the Russian Front.

In a large generic sense, the Russian Front scarred America much more deeply than the nuclear raid. The Americans looked at their million-plus dead there, and swore "never again". Hence the very small U.S. Army, and the total reliance on nuclear attack to end wars. Never again, any President who commits to a large standing army and a foreign deployment of ground troops won't stay in office. He'd probably be impeached and removed so fast it would make people's eyes swim. That's why Johnson in Crusade is so dead set against McNamara's policy initiatives. Lyndon B Johnson was probably the best politician (in a mechanics of politics sense) that America has ever had. (He also comes across in his writings as an intensely human person behind his political manipulations, I tried to get that across in Crusade). He knew McNamara's plans for a large U.S. Army were political suicide and wanted none of them.

There is a quite strong "peace movement" in TBOverse America (its mentioned in The Great Game) but it really isn't mentioned very much because its peripheral to the environment in which the stories take place. That has political impacts all of its own.

One story I've though of writing is a citizen in the TBOverse finding himself in a universe that bears an uncanny resemblance to ours :). He spends the story in growing disbelief at what he sees and ends up screaming in horror at the doscovery that there are American troops deployed all over the world - but no strategic defense system. That makes him wake up of course, it was all just a horrible dream. :twisted:
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Post by XaLEv »

Stuart wrote:It's quite possible that the same characters can be transliterated multiple ways.
Well, fu can be transliterated a few different ways, but every source I've looked at agrees that in this case the /f/ (an unvoiced bilabial fricative) becomes /p/ (an unvoiced biliabial stop), which is only ever transliterated one way. This is a very common shift, for example fuku (belly) in seppuku and fu (father) in shinpu (priest, same shin). I've looked around a bit and only found a few instances of /f/ occuring right after a moraic n without having become either /p/ or /b/. I suspect the author of the book you mentioned was either unaware of this consonant shift or mistook the pu for a fu, since they are distinguished in writing only by the presence of a diacritical mark.
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Post by Stuart »

XaLEv wrote:Well, fu can be transliterated a few different ways, but every source I've looked at agrees that in this case the /f/ (an unvoiced bilabial fricative) becomes /p/ (an unvoiced biliabial stop), which is only ever transliterated one way. This is a very common shift, for example fuku (belly) in seppuku and fu (father) in shinpu (priest, same shin). I've looked around a bit and only found a few instances of /f/ occuring right after a moraic n without having become either /p/ or /b/. I suspect the author of the book you mentioned was either unaware of this consonant shift or mistook the pu for a fu, since they are distinguished in writing only by the presence of a diacritical mark.
That's very useful input; thank you very much for sorting it out. I'll ammend the text when the dead tree version comes out next year.
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NAZI LOVER!!!

I was the one who found the original blog. I had a good laugh and sent it on the Chewie and Shep, and it kinda snowballed from there...
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Post by Stuart »

skyman8081 wrote:I was the one who found the original blog. I had a good laugh and sent it on the Chewie and Shep, and it kinda snowballed from there...
The funny thing is that its appearance coincided with a major increase in sales of TBO - kicking it up from a niche product to a mainstream seller. Correlation isn't causality of course but also 'there's no such thing as bad publicity'. It's quite possible that the blog in question has done me a major favor.

By the way, one guess who was behind it (rhetorical question only)
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Post by Master of Cards »

A lot of the questions sounded like some people on SB.
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Master of Cards wrote:A lot of the questions sounded like some people on SB.
Most of the questions struck me as reasonable (some were just silly), at least for someone who hadn't actually read TBO and was just going on the summaries. But this guy's personal crusade against Stuart obviously ruled out any real attempt to answer or discuss them. I would be interested to read an 'official' rebuttal/response to this 'FAQ' if one exists.
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Post by Stuart »

Starglider wrote: Most of the questions struck me as reasonable (some were just silly), at least for someone who hadn't actually read TBO and was just going on the summaries.
If you've got any questions you'd like to bring up, please feel free to do so. I'll try and explain how and why we ended up where we did (the we isn't royal, a lot of people and organizations contributed to the background research that went into the TBOverse). Quite a few times, we've revised canon in order to accommodate people's legitimate comments and corrections (like Shin-Fu becoming Shin-pu :) )
I would be interested to read an 'official' rebuttal/response to this 'FAQ' if one exists.
Here you go. Again, any comments, opinions and questions for addition gratefully received.
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Post by XaLEv »

Stuart wrote: That's very useful input; thank you very much for sorting it out. I'll ammend the text when the dead tree version comes out next year.
Glad to have helped. One more matter, in Japanese vowel length is important; long vowels are pronounced for roughly twice as long as short vowels. The u in fuu is long, and is perhaps even more important than the f-p shift, so I suggest spelling it Shinpuu, or Shin-puu if you like. Dashes aren't usually used but I don't think it's a problem.
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Stuart wrote:
Starglider wrote:I would be interested to read an 'official' rebuttal/response to this 'FAQ' if one exists.
Here you go.
Thanks, that's an excellent FAQ, not sure how I missed it when I was initially reading through all the online stuff. The main deficiency that occurs to me at present is that 'US can't reasonably do an amphib. assault on Ireland/UK/Scandinavia' could use a bit more analysis. The US has the industrial capability to build a fairly huge assault fleet, but not the experience, and there's no proof that it can be done in TBO. Amphib. operations across the entire North Atlantic are horribly impractical. However there are thousands of islands off the coast of Scotland that are effectively impossible to defend on land and which might be useful as staging areas if the US carrier forces can gain local air superiority (if holding off a massive German/British/Irish land attack on the bridgehead is established is the main problem - which it may not be).
Stuart wrote:Again, any comments, opinions and questions for addition gratefully received.
In OTL the UK occupied Iceland in 1940 to prevent the Germans from using it as a base, then the US took over the occupation in 1941. Presumably in TBO they allow the German occupation to go ahead? Does the US consider taking Iceland as a bomber and carrier base? Historically it only had 25,000ish troops defending it. Also in OTL Spain negotiated to join the Axis, but did not follow through, though Franco still sent 'volunteer' troops to the Eastern Front and allowed German ships and aircraft to use Spanish facilities throughout at least the first half of the war. Is this still true in TBO? By late in the war Spain will look like a pretty useful source of manpower and resources to the Reich (sorry if this is detailed in Crusade - haven't read that one yet).

Nitpicking:
'One is that radar sets are much more powerful than in OTL (an order of magnitude more so) to give greater range.' - if this is physically possible, why isn't it done in OTL? I thought it was constrained by the platform's generator capability and the radar system mass allowance. Isn't TBO power semiconductor technology actually less advanced than OTL?

'Since the TBOverse radar sets pump out much more energy, more is reflected, increasing detection range' - a) why isn't this done in real life against stealth threats and b) doesn't this increase the amount of noise/backscatter as well? I'm not versed in radar theory, but at least for look-down-shoot-down against low level penetrators, doesn't the signal-to-noise stay pretty much the same (at least at non-extreme ranges)? Then again : 'This is quite effective against stealthy targets since the ground underneath is static but an aircraft like a B-2 flying over it creates a moving shadow of "no returns". When a B-2 is over a patch of ground, that ground doesn't generate a return. That shadow can be detected.' - I didn't know this and maybe it works better with higher radar powers - is there any possibility of adjusting the stealth aircraft's signature to roughly match the terrain, or is it just too variable?

'Why does the US buy B-70s which fly from 75,000 to 100,000 feet when the ceiling of the Nike-Hercules SAM is 150,000 feet?' - plus TBOverse B-70s have active countermeasures, do these work against SAMs or just fighters? You say 'And the B-70 shoots back.' but it's not clear in context whether that means countermeasures against the missiles or just attacking the launch sites.

'The B-70 flies higher than an SR-71, its significantly faster,' - back out here in unclassified land, the B-70A has a max speed of mach 3.1, while the SR-71's max speed is at least mach 3.3 (probably slightly higher for short bursts). You've noted that the theoretical B70C can hit mach 3.4, but that doesnt seem 'significantly faster' unless I'm missing something.

The B-36 and B-70 capability upgrades over OTL are quite well detailed, but it'd be nice to hear about how far the B-52, A-12 and particularly B-58 capabilities were pushed (e.g. what the specs on the late model B-58s in 'Ride of the Valkyries' were - and what the F-108's capability turned out to be, we only got some initial projections in OTL). I may have asked this before, but did the Sukhoi T-4 make an appearance in the TBO timeline?

'In fact, viewed objectively, in the TBOverse, the Japanese are the other really big winner of WW2.' - personal opinion, but this could do with a caveat to respond to the 'Japan conquering China wish fulfilment' accusation. The supremacy of SAC is undeniably wish fulfilment to some extent. However the TBOverse illustrates that the Japanese conquest is ultimately a bad thing relative to OTL even for the Japanese themselves.

'In some cases, the attitudes just defy belief - ther was one "demand" that TBO be re-written to reflect a UK greatly strengthened by the experience of being occupied and going on to found "The Third British Empire"' - I confess I had a strong expectation someone would demand this, and I find it rather amusing. Aren't there enough 'British Empire still going strong' alternate histories out there already to choose from?

It would be interesting to have the timeline for development of nuclear weapons by various states, compared to OTL. I am not clear exactly when Japan first tested one.

Incidentally does the Japanese occupation of many Pacific islands cause the relocation of any US nuclear testing, compared to OTL?
The reason why is that the warheads are contained on a bus that is lofted by the missile. That bus is equipped with a manoeuvering system that makes a series of alterations to its course and fires a warhead at a pre-selected target. This isn't very accurate and there is a major accuracy penalty in shifting from unitary warheads (one warhead per missile) to MIRVs. That loss of accuracy sets a maximum distance at which a warhead can be discharged from the bus. Also, the warheads are discharged one at a time from that bus which puts further constraints on how far they can be released from the target and the degree of separation between the targets engaged. The effect of that is that the bus containing the MIRVs is within the range of the ABMs before it starts to discharge its warheads and would be shot down before those warheads are released. In fact, this is so prominent a factor that MIRV is not only not an answer to ABM defenses, MIRVed missiles are only viable in the absence of such defenses.
Not relevant to the FAQ exactly but I asked this question in another thread and I'd appreciate an answer if possible. Is the reason MIRV warheads can't be discharged from the bus immediately post boost solely accuracy? If so, surely this is a technological limitation (specifically, a sensors and processing one), not a physical one? Given the steady increase in inertial guidance system accuracy, doesn't this mean that early-MIRV is likely to become practical eventually, even though it isn't yet?

Will have to reread 'Interstellar Highway' and read 'Sceptered Isle' at some point and generate more questions, I have relatively more expertise in potential future tech than historical military tech. :)

Do you have any ideas for filling the big gap between 2070 and 2545 that have seen public discussion?

Something of an extreme luxury item, but it would be nice if a 'US Army Aircraft' page was added to the TBO orders of battle list, just to find out what happened to US helicopter development in the TBOverse. I'd guess it was retarded somewhat by the scaling back of conventional forces - but tthat they eventually switched to rotodynes (implying the V-22 never existed)? Did the US ever build a version of the Harrier in the TBOverse, or was the USMC too scaled back to have aircraft like this? Any other VTOL aircraft in service?
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Post by Stuart »

Starglider wrote: The US has the industrial capability to build a fairly huge assault fleet, but not the experience, and there's no proof that it can be done in TBO. Amphib. operations across the entire North Atlantic are horribly impractical. However there are thousands of islands off the coast of Scotland that are effectively impossible to defend on land and which might be useful as staging areas if the US carrier forces can gain local air superiority (if holding off a massive German/British/Irish land attack on the bridgehead is established is the main problem - which it may not be).
This is a little bit of a spoiler for a future part of Winter Warriors so beware :). There are in fact three plans for an amphibious invasion of Western Europe. One is Plan Red which envisages an invasion of the U.K. directly with landings on the west coast of the UK. The second is Plan Emerald which envisages a landing in Ireland and the third is Plan Gold which envisages a landing in France. There were two other plans, Plan Olive which envisaged a landing in Spain had that country entered the war and Plan Silver which looked to an invasion of North Africa. However, Olive was scuppered by Spain not entering the war and Silver was scuppered by the fact that North Africa doesn't actually lead anywhere. It's a dead end. The carrier strikes on Germany, by the way, are War Plan Black.

Plans Red and Emerald both have the same problem, the number of suitable invasion beaches is quite limited. The cost of Ireland is not conducive to an amphibious invasion with 1940s technology (remember also that the U.S. Navy hasn't fought a war in the Pacific, its knowledge of amphibious operations and the necessray equipment is at 1942 levels). The UK mainland is only marginally better and it has the added problem that an invasion of the UK directly leaves Ireland in enemy hands behind it.

That leaves Plan Gold (the names, before anybody accuses me of being anti-something or other, are all genuine U.S. Navy plans for these specific invasions). Plan Gold envisages a landing along the Aquitaine Coast (again, don't blame me, thats what Gold envisaged) and then a swing up and across France. The problem is that the U.K. is the great fortress that guards Europe from a westerly invasion, it can't be by-passed So, an invasion of France would have to be followed by one of the UK. However, invading across the Channel into the Southern Coast is much easier than invading across the Atlantic into the western coast.

However, by 1945, things have changed, The B-36 is flying and working albeit taking time to debug. The atomic bomb has been designed and tested and is in mass production. The decision has been taken to launch a single overwhelming nuclear strike against Germany to utterly destroy its war-making potential. So, the invasions have been derated from a genuine invasion to landing occupation troops who will simply accept a German surrender. The problem would come if the destruction of Germany did not bring about the surrender of the German armies in the field (as happened in Russia).
In OTL the UK occupied Iceland in 1940 to prevent the Germans from using it as a base, then the US took over the occupation in 1941. Presumably in TBO they allow the German occupation to go ahead? Does the US consider taking Iceland as a bomber and carrier base? Historically it only had 25,000ish troops defending it.
Iceland was invaded and occupied by the UK as per history (it happened before the PoD) and that occupation was taken over by the U.S. also as per history. The difference is that the U.S. move into Iceland was massive, and established a very large semi-permanent population. Eventually Iceland became the 51st state (the Azores being the 52nd)
Also in OTL Spain negotiated to join the Axis, but did not follow through, though Franco still sent 'volunteer' troops to the Eastern Front and allowed German ships and aircraft to use Spanish facilities throughout at least the first half of the war. Is this still true in TBO? By late in the war Spain will look like a pretty useful source of manpower and resources to the Reich.
Much the same, Franco does a balancing act, makes enough noises to keep the Germans happy while not getting bombed, shot up and/or invaded. The sight of what's happening to France and the UK convinces him that its a good plan not to upset the US. That means Spain actually survives WW2 in pretty good condition.
'One is that radar sets are much more powerful than in OTL (an order of magnitude more so) to give greater range.' - if this is physically possible, why isn't it done in OTL? I thought it was constrained by the platform's generator capability and the radar system mass allowance. Isn't TBO power semiconductor technology actually less advanced than OTL?
Its a policy decision. Like everything else, radar performance is a balance between characteristics. The U.S. TBOverse fighters are optimized for long-range engagements using nuclear-tipped air-to-air missiles. They're significantly bigger and much more powerful than OTL fighters, that allows them to have bigger radar dishes in their nose, they have greater generating capacity etc etc. In OTL we optimized airborne radars for tactical roles; in the TBOverse strategic airborne radars are the rule rather than the exception. For example, the OTL F-14As AWG-9 radar would be regarded as the norm for an airborne radar set rather than an exception.
'Since the TBOverse radar sets pump out much more energy, more is reflected, increasing detection range' - a) why isn't this done in real life against stealth threats and b) doesn't this increase the amount of noise/backscatter as well?
It is. It's a standard anti-stealth technique. The U.S. Navy claim that the SPY-1 can pick up the F-117 at tactically significant ranges using that dodge.
I didn't know this and maybe it works better with higher radar powers - is there any possibility of adjusting the stealth aircraft's signature to roughly match the terrain, or is it just too variable?
Again, its a standard dodge, the Russians claim they can track a B-2 that way and I believe them. The Australians have tracked a B-2 using a Jindalee radar using a variation of that technique. It's not very accurate but for TBOverse fighters it doesn't have to be, all they need is a rough position, the nuclear warheads on their AAMs will do the rest.
plus TBOverse B-70s have active countermeasures, do these work against SAMs or just fighters? You say 'And the B-70 shoots back.' but it's not clear in context whether that means countermeasures against the missiles or just attacking the launch sites.
Both fighters and ground-based defenses. The bombers carry air-to-air and air-to-ground missiles in addition to their primary bombload. If somebody fires at them, they fire back. Again, that's standard. The B-58 was actually able to use AIM-7 Sparrow missiles although I don't think they ever did (so was the F-111D) and there have been tantalizing hints that the Bone could carry AIM-54. Buffs carried air-to-surface anti-SAM site and anti-radar weapons.
'The B-70 flies higher than an SR-71, its significantly faster,' - back out here in unclassified land, the B-70A has a max speed of mach 3.1, while the SR-71's max speed is at least mach 3.3 (probably slightly higher for short bursts). You've noted that the theoretical B70C can hit mach 3.4, but that doesnt seem 'significantly faster' unless I'm missing something.
Most of the performance figures for the B-70 are those of XB-70 AV1, the first prototype, which had some of its fuel tanks sealed off due to leakage and was engine power and air-frame restricted. These problems were solved in AV2 but she crashed before her performance could be documented. The YB-70 (AV3) had further improvements to her airframe and more powerful engines plus carried extra fuel. SHe was scrapped before completion. North American were hoping to get Mach 3.4 - Mach 3.5 out of her and I've used that as the standard for the production B-70. That makes her Mach 0.2 faster than an SR-71. They key point is that a B-70 can hold that speed for hours without refuelling so that 132 mph difference really mounts up. By the way, I've seen some more tantalizing hints that North American came up with an advanced B-70 that could manage Mach 4.62 but I've never seen any written confirmation of it so I've delayed that until the turboscram-powered B-103 Aurora gets into service.
it'd be nice to hear about how far the B-52, A-12 and particularly B-58 capabilities were pushed (e.g. what the specs on the late model B-58s in 'Ride of the Valkyries' were - and what the F-108's capability turned out to be, we only got some initial projections in OTL).
I'm doing factfiles on the B-58 and B-70. The B-52 is pretty much as ours except that the B-52G and H are not low-altitude modified and there is a B-52J that is really the OTL "big belly" B-52D.
I may have asked this before, but did the Sukhoi T-4 make an appearance in the TBO timeline?
It does indeed, its ordered into production in "Ride of the Valkyries" and makes a brief (non-violent) appearance in "High Frontier"
Personal opinion, but this could do with a caveat to respond to the 'Japan conquering China wish fulfilment' accusation.
I honestly don't think that "Japan conquering China" is wish fulfillment, my personal sympathies are entirely with the Chinese. However, reality demands that we note what actually happened and in OTL the Japanese were still defeating the Chinese in 1945 - despite everything else that had happened. In TBO, the Japanese have no distractions so can go about China unconstrained. So I think that Japan completing the occupation of China by 1949/50 is not unreasonable. Note though, occupation, not conquered. In fact Japan never conquers China, the Chinese are still resisting (made clear in Crusade), its just they're goinga bout it in a different way. Historically, China has been conquered (my the Mongols and the Manchus for example and China has always won out by absorbing the "conqueror". It wasn't long before the Mongols andManchus were mroe Chinese than the Chinese. In TBO, that nearly happens to Japan, the Japanese escape by teh skin of their teeth,
The supremacy of SAC is undeniably wish fulfilment to some extent.
I disagree; its what happens if the bomber replaces the missile at teh center of U.S. power projection. Also, in TBO, there's no great duopoly of power as there was in OTL. There isn't a major rival to the USA so SAC isn't really challenged.
I confess I had a strong expectation someone would demand this, and I find it rather amusing. Aren't there enough 'British Empire still going strong' alternate histories out there already to choose from?
I know, although I must admit I am befuddled as to how anybody could suggest that being occupied for seven years will strengthen a nation :roll: Incidentally, I'm putting together a short story that sets the stage for a full novel set in occupied Britain.
It would be interesting to have the timeline for development of nuclear weapons by various states, compared to OTL. I am not clear exactly when Japan first tested one.
Briefly, Japan, 1952, UK 1959, India 1964, Australia 1965, France 1966, Brazil 1968, Argentina 1980. Technically Russia never tested a nuclear device although it has them and can ask the US for more any time it wants them "Oh, hi Dmitri..... sure, no problem, how many and where d'ya want them delivered. OK. My regards to your wife and kids."
Incidentally does the Japanese occupation of many Pacific islands cause the relocation of any US nuclear testing, compared to OTL?
Oh yes. Nevada real estate values drop quite a bit. By the way, that means an earlier development of underground testing.
Not relevant to the FAQ exactly but I asked this question in another thread and I'd appreciate an answer if possible. Is the reason MIRV warheads can't be discharged from the bus immediately post boost solely accuracy? If so, surely this is a technological limitation (specifically, a sensors and processing one), not a physical one? Given the steady increase in inertial guidance system accuracy, doesn't this mean that early-MIRV is likely to become practical eventually, even though it isn't yet?
Umm. Got to be very careful here. No, accuracy is not the only reason. There are limits as to how early a MIRV bus can start discharging and the performance we have now is what we're stuck with. Really MIRVs are only viable in the absence of ABM (which is a major reason why ABM was stopped in the OTL 1970s). If there is an ABM screen, really the single-warhead missile is the best option, but its MUCH more costly than MIRVEd missiles.
Do you have any ideas for filling the big gap between 2070 and 2545 that have seen public discussion?
Not at the moment. I'd like to keep it as a sort of shadowy horror that nobody can quite define or describe but which fills people with dread. I don't know if you've seen the 1996 film Dracula with Winona Ryder but there's a sequence there where Count Dracula is talking to the hero and he's quite normal and pleasant but his shadow on the wall behind him is of a batlike monster - and if you watch carefully, the shadow is moving independently. That's the sort of effect I'm aiming at. The dark ages are that sort of evil backdrop that nobody in the stories wants to talk about.
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Post by Stuart »

Starglider wrote: Something of an extreme luxury item, but it would be nice if a 'US Army Aircraft' page was added to the TBO orders of battle list, just to find out what happened to US helicopter development in the TBOverse. I'd guess it was retarded somewhat by the scaling back of conventional forces - but tthat they eventually switched to rotodynes (implying the V-22 never existed)? Did the US ever build a version of the Harrier in the TBOverse, or was the USMC too scaled back to have aircraft like this? Any other VTOL aircraft in service?
I've got it planned. It's just I have so MUCH planned...............

No Harrier in the TBOverse although attack rotodynes do much of the same work. The Rotodyne is really the workhorse of the TBOverse, it does the same jobs as helicopters, feeder lines, puddle hoppers and executive jets.
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Technically Russia never tested a nuclear device although it has them and can ask the US for more any time it wants them "Oh, hi Dmitri..... sure, no problem, how many and where d'ya want them delivered. OK. My regards to your wife and kids."
That seems very strange, did the Russians get major access to US nuclear warhead designs and thus didn’t have to validate their own work? Not testing seems like the Russians have a confidence they should not.
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Sea Skimmer wrote:That seems very strange, did the Russians get major access to US nuclear warhead designs and thus didn’t have to validate their own work? Not testing seems like the Russians have a confidence they should not.
They shipped their warheads to Nevada and they were tested there as part of the U.S. program. There are some political and military reasons for that but the most pressing is that the Russians want to keep as much ambiguity about their military capability as possible. Maskirovka, always maskirovka.
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Oh, hi Dmitri..... sure, no problem, how many and where d'ya want them delivered. OK. My regards to your wife and kids.
Russia has a nice position in TBO, sure. Actually this gives us a shadow hand with our own devices which grant security but are not to be used since we can always rely on the US as our unconditional ally. Yet the alliance of two greatest powers in TBO certainly has an element of doom to it. Russia and America seem to completely dominate the world in TBO, and rival powers from both East and West look like bugs who run beneath their feet, minus possibly Japan. But even they look pale.
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Post by Redleader34 »

Uh, some questions here. One, What is the biggest Aircraft carrier built in TBOverse? and two, what type of space stations are built by Interstellar Highway? Are they O'Neils or just really large Cylinders?

How did Afric get hit by the Blackpox, and what type of Ground to Orbit capability do we have? Is it like a Supper Dynastar? Also., have we biult a space elevator yet?

Thanks for answering.
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Post by Stuart »

Redleader34 wrote:What is the biggest Aircraft carrier built in TBOverse?
The CVN-81 North Dakota class. They displace 102,000 tons and are more or less the analogue of the OTL CVN-78 Gerald R. Ford class. The size is limited by docking and port facilities; they're common to both timelines.
what type of space stations are built by Interstellar Highway? Are they O'Neils or just really large Cylinders?
The MOWS stations are basically zero-gravity lattice structures

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The Geostationary and Legrange Point stations are massive rotating cylindrical structures with living accommodation on the outside (where its 1 g, industry inside and the flight deck and maintenance areas in the center. The shuttles land like aircraft on a carrier, complete with lifts and arrester wires.
How did Africa get hit by the Blackpox
Backwash from the release in North Africa. That's the horror of biological weapons, they're completely uncontrollable. In RotV, the First Biowar is incredibly bloody even though its of short duration. The Great Biowars in 2040 onwards are very close to being an extinction event.
What type of Ground to Orbit capability do we have? Is it like a Supper Dynastar?
There's a few false starts, Dynasoar for example and the use of a manned first stage. In the end, the solution is what amounts to a conventional aircraft that has triple-phase turbo-scram-rockets to get single-state-to-orbit. The aircraft take off and land by conventional means. They re-enter by "skipping" rather than the direct re-entry we use. In the TBOverse, spaceflight is simply an extension of the higher-faster philosophy of aircraft design.
Also., have we biult a space elevator yet?
No, I'm not sure that a space elevator will feature. I have to get some expert of advice on whether its possible with the technology level available in TBO. Perhaps the Nutkins (who are better engineers than we are) might have something they can use.
Thanks for answering.
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Post by Instant Sunrise »

I'm writing a short story that is a series of vingiettes regarding the 60 anniversary of TBO. So I have a few research questions regarding the TBO-verse as of 2007.

I gather that 9/11 happened in TBO, what was the US response? Since TBO-US doesn't have a standing army capable of invading Afghanistan or Iraq.

And was there another USS Shiloh by 2007?
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Post by Stuart »

skyman8081 wrote:I'm writing a short story that is a series of vingiettes regarding the 60 anniversary of TBO.
Welcome to the TBOverse author's stable. Could you let me have a quick look at the text before you put it up please so I can check to make sure its consistent with Canon. That's just a formality but it saves complications.
So I have a few research questions regarding the TBO-verse as of 2007. I gather that 9/11 happened in TBO, what was the US response?
The initial response was a panic-stricken effort to find out who did it. The first assumption was The Caliphate but they'd been quiet for a good number of years and were frantically denying reponsibility. Of course, nobody believed them and there was a huge amount of public pressure to nuke The Caliphate out of existance. There was also a lot of criticism of the air defense systems that let the aircraft get through so another initial response was to upgrade the air defense system that had been allowed to drift during the Clinton years. (A quick note on that by the way. There's quite a degree of parallelism and convergence in TBO; although the concepts are criticized by some parts of the alternative history community, I believe that its inevitable. The events in TBO, although they make massive differences in specific areas are only a part of much broader trends and, over time, the disruptions caused to the timeline tend to fade out. The comparison I use is to imagine time as a flowing river. Stick a log in the river and it causes massive disruption to the flow in the short term but the further one goes downstream, the less notable that turbulence becomes and the more the river reverts to its pre-log state.)

Anyway, the US Government attempts to get to the bottom of what happened, tracing people etc. It slowly becomes apparent that The Caliphate wasn't actually responsible for the attacks so the question becomes who was? At the time, that question was never really answered. (SPOILER ALERT) In fact, it was the South East Asian Islamic movement (Jamyaat Islamiyah in OTL) who also wanted to set up a hegemonic Islamic state but one that was centered around Indonesia and the Moslem areas of SE Asia rather than the Middle East and who wanted an "Asian Islam" rather than the "Arabic Islam" of The Caliphate. (Again, this reflects the agendas of the OTL groups. Al Qaeda and Jamyaat Islamiyah are allies at the moment but their long-term goals are very different. The TBO The Caliphate is basically a realization of Al Qaeda and the Taliban's political/social goals). JI carried out the Towers attack, hoping that it would provoke the US into destroying The Caliphate, thus clearing the way for the JI state and also consolidating Moslem support for them. The US holding its fire wrecked that plan. These events are in the novel "The Towers Fall" coming some time in the future (after WW and "A Mighty Endeavor".

The JI involvement isn't known for many years and at the time the Towers attack gets written off as the actions of mad extremists in the US. That has an unfortunate long-term impact as well
Since TBO-US doesn't have a standing army capable of invading Afghanistan or Iraq.
A much better situation doncha think? :) If one doesn't have an army, one isn't so inclined to think of invasions as a first solution. Which is precisely why Eisenhower gutted the US Army in the 1950s.
And was there another USS Shiloh by 2007?
Commissioned June 6, 2007. Replacement for the older USS Shiloh (decommissioned 1999). Shiloh and Enterprise are the two non-state names provided for the US carriers. They were the only two fleet carriers lost in WW2
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Post by Starglider »

Stuart wrote:There are in fact three plans for an amphibious invasion of Western Europe. One is Plan Red which envisages an invasion of the U.K. directly with landings on the west coast of the UK. The second is Plan Emerald which envisages a landing in Ireland and the third is Plan Gold which envisages a landing in France.
I'm curious what the projected casualties for those are. On top of the losses the US already suffered on the Russian front, they'd have to be pretty horrific, easily taking the TBOverse past the OTL WWII US casualty figures.
The U.S. TBOverse fighters are optimized for long-range engagements using nuclear-tipped air-to-air missiles.
So nuclear AAMs made the 'missile bus' argument valid, and TBO fighters really don't need to dogfight? I note you've still got the F-15 and F-16 in the OOB; as an interceptor in the TBOverse the F-116 in particular seems like a step backwards from the F-108 and F-112 - unless you've radically changed the specs from OTL. I like the fact you have the XF-123 at ~mach 3 - AFAIK superior supercruise performance on the YF-23 vs the YF-22 has never been confirmed by the USAF, but it's widely rumoured (though you've probably bumped it further over OTL).
plus TBOverse B-70s have active countermeasures, do these work against SAMs or just fighters? You say 'And the B-70 shoots back.' but it's not clear in context whether that means countermeasures against the missiles or just attacking the launch sites.
Both fighters and ground-based defenses. The bombers carry air-to-air and air-to-ground missiles in addition to their primary bombload. If somebody fires at them, they fire back.
Yes, but do the B-70s have interceptor missiles? Those long-range SAMs look pretty big and unmaneuverable, can they be realistically engaged by a bomber launched missile?
I may have asked this before, but did the Sukhoi T-4 make an appearance in the TBO timeline?
It does indeed, its ordered into production in "Ride of the Valkyries" and makes a brief (non-violent) appearance in "High Frontier"
Sorry, slipped my mind.
The supremacy of SAC is undeniably wish fulfilment to some extent.
I disagree; its what happens if the bomber replaces the missile at teh center of U.S. power projection.
I think we're using different definitions of 'wish fullfilment'. AFAIK nothing in the TBOverse is wish fulfillment in the 'couldn't have happened without writer fiat' sense other than the immortal humans, which are a dramatic device rather than an alt-history feature anyway. However you can't deny that when you sat down and decided to write the first story, you wanted SAC to feature prominently and go on to deploy all the weapons that should have been deployed historically. It's wish fullfilment in the sense that you personally would presumably have like to have seen it happen, though hopefully not via the horrific mass nuclear attacks in TBO.

That said, the one thing I do find a little contrived is your conversion of the USSR from a mass murdering totalitarian state arguably worse than the Nazis, and the bitter enemies of the US and the West in general, to a free and reasonably pleasant country that's /extremely/ US-friendly. It isn't /unreasonable/, but I do get a very strong 'author wishes things could've been that way' vibe, and unlike the SAC ascendant it is a genuine suspension-of-disbelief stretcher. Though of course any sane person with the benefit of hindsight would want Stalin and the rest of the communist hardliners gone ASAP. In particular I agree with Sea Skimmer in that it seems very unlikely Russia would make any compromises in nuclear security, particularly with the larger number of deployed warheads in TBO.
Umm. Got to be very careful here. No, accuracy is not the only reason. There are limits as to how early a MIRV bus can start discharging and the performance we have now is what we're stuck with.
I've been trying to think of why, but I haven't come up with anything that would compromise MIRV performance (given very good INS) that wouldn't also compromise single-missile performance. However there are things that would compromise some of the economic advantage of MIRV, i.e. having to put some cold gas thrusters on the RVs to compensate for exosphere turbulence and weather effects particularly in the separation phase. Low-powered cold gas trajectory correction thrusters are somewhat cheaper and simpler than bus monopropellent thrusters, but it's still mass, and now you need a decent INS for every warhead instead of just the bus - but then electronics cost does steadily decrease to a much greater extent than structure and plumbing.

But I suppose I will have to keep guessing on this front. :)
Do you have any ideas for filling the big gap between 2070 and 2545 that have seen public discussion?
Not at the moment. I'd like to keep it as a sort of shadowy horror that nobody can quite define or describe but which fills people with dread.[/quote]

When I read Sceptered Isle I will be checking carefully for 'why haven't they got X yet' technology, but for 'Interstellar Highway' presumably you can just say 'horrible nightmares from the dark age, can't explain'. Though that's kinda frustrating, for things like Redleader's space elevators particularly.
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Post by Andras »

Starglider wrote:
Stuart wrote:
The U.S. TBOverse fighters are optimized for long-range engagements using nuclear-tipped air-to-air missiles.
So nuclear AAMs made the 'missile bus' argument valid, and TBO fighters really don't need to dogfight? I note you've still got the F-15 and F-16 in the OOB; as an interceptor in the TBOverse the F-116 in particular seems like a step backwards from the F-108 and F-112 - unless you've radically changed the specs from OTL.
IIRC, the TBO F116 is more like a Super-Crusader follow-on with a single J93 then the lightweight day fighter originally intended in OTL
Both fighters and ground-based defenses. The bombers carry air-to-air and air-to-ground missiles in addition to their primary bombload. If somebody fires at them, they fire back.
Yes, but do the B-70s have interceptor missiles? Those long-range SAMs look pretty big and unmaneuverable, can they be realistically engaged by a bomber launched missile?
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Post by Ritterin Sophia »

Stuart wrote:By the way, one guess who was behind it (rhetorical question only)
Okay, a couple questions, first, can someone explain this joke to me?

Two is there a TBO Timeline with major events noted?

Finally, whilst I know TBO America has taken a pretty strict Bombers-Come-First policy, I was wondering how development of other military equipment has gone? For example what are these F-114's and -116's I hear of and what is the standard equipment as of 2007 in the TBO-verse?
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Post by Stuart »

Starglider wrote: I'm curious what the projected casualties for those are. On top of the losses the US already suffered on the Russian front, they'd have to be pretty horrific, easily taking the TBOverse past the OTL WWII US casualty figures.
This might help. I'm sorry its a bit hard to read. @ = OTL

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The casualty calculations for the invasion of Western Europe in the absence of the strategic nuclear bombardment were based on the assumption (in hindsight probably wrong) that it would result in a second "Russian Front" with equivalent casualty rates. While the US has very good intelligence on Nazi Germany, it isn't perfect and the idea of doubling the US death rate is profoundly horrifying.
So nuclear AAMs made the 'missile bus' argument valid, and TBO fighters really don't need to dogfight?
Not quite a missile bus, that idea was tried with the F6D Missileer and it didn't work too well. The TBO interceptors are very fast, high-flying fighters that are optimized for specific roles. The F-108 is a long-range escort fighter, its designed to locate enemy fighters and destroy them (and their airfields) before the bombers arrive. The F-112 is the long-range interceptor that's designed to break up inbound enemy bomber formations while they are still a long way from the US, the F-114 is basically a Tomcat analogue although its a whole Mech number faster and flies a lot higher. Its job is to take on the broken bomber formations and down them. The F-116 is a point-defense interceptor, its a fast reaction aircraft flown by the Air National Guard and is designed to pick off any bombers that leak through the air defense system. Note that they're all primarily bomber destroyers, the TBOverse in general isn't really in to tactical warfare.
I note you've still got the F-15 and F-16 in the OOB; as an interceptor in the TBOverse the F-116 in particular seems like a step backwards from the F-108 and F-112 - unless you've radically changed the specs from OTL.
The Viper in TBO is very different from the OTL F-16. It's a very fast-climbing, high-altitude interceptor that is armed witha single nuclear-tipped air-to-air missile, two conventional warhead AAMs and a cannon. It owes much more to the OTL F-104 that the OTL F-16

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Imagine the F116 as a J-93 powered F-104 and you're in the ballpark

The TBOverse F-115 is sort of like the OTL F-15 but its got J-58s instead of its OTL engines, is a high-altitude fighter and its a whole mach number faster. It's a swing fighter, it can serve in both tactical and strategic roles. Again, its an ANG aircraft.
I like the fact you have the XF-123 at ~mach 3 - AFAIK superior supercruise performance on the YF-23 vs the YF-22 has never been confirmed by the USAF, but it's widely rumoured (though you've probably bumped it further over OTL).
Both the XF-122 and the XF-123 are analogues of the OTL F-22 and F-23 but by TBO standards the performance of the OTl aircraft is obsolete. Pretty much all the TBO front-line combat aircraft cruise at Mach 3 plus (one of the odd things about that flight regime is that once you're in it, your cruising speed is your maximum speed. Don't ask me why and I didn't believe it when I read it but I checked it out and its true). The XF-122 and XF-123 are TBO implementations of reduced signature technology but their life depends on the evaluation of the value of reduced signatures versus the high speed, enormous firepower and high operating ceilings of the existing aircraft. As of TBO 2007, that's still under examination but things don't look good for stealth.
Yes, but do the B-70s have interceptor missiles? Those long-range SAMs look pretty big and unmaneuverable, can they be realistically engaged by a bomber launched missile?
Yes in both cases. The bombers carry both self defense missiles (Pyewacket or "The Frisbee") and a complex and comprehensive defense suite called the Defensive Anti-Missile System (DAMS) that's described (sparingly, most of DAMS is highly classified still) in RotV. DAMS integrates with sensors on the strategic recon aircraft flying ahead of the bombers so that its able to counter attacks as they develop. Possible systemic counters to DAMS are also described in RotV.
I think we're using different definitions of 'wish fullfilment'. AFAIK nothing in the TBOverse is wish fulfillment in the 'couldn't have happened without writer fiat' sense other than the immortal humans, which are a dramatic device rather than an alt-history feature anyway.
I've tried to develop things as logically as I can. The long-lifers are a sort of personification of the faceless bureaucrats who have really run society since the time of the Pharoahs. I thought that instead of having apparently immortal bureaucrats, I'd have really immortal (actually they're not technically immortal, they can be killed or die, its just they don't get older once they've gone through Transition).
However you can't deny that when you sat down and decided to write the first story, you wanted SAC to feature prominently and go on to deploy all the weapons that should have been deployed historically.
Oddly, that's not how it all started. I wanted to do a story that was a counter to all the "Erwin Rommel and Nazi Uberweapons Conquer the World" tales that were doing the rounds. Also, at the time, there were lots of anti-ABM press stories about how wonderful the days of "Mutually Assured Destruction" were. So I wanted to try and remind people what assured destruction meant in nuclear terms.

Anyway, to get a better-than-historical result for teh Germans I had to knock the U.K. out of the war. Whichever way one looks at it, the resistance of the UK in 1940 was absolutely critical, it was the key turning point. Now, one way is to presume that Sealion worked but I wanted to keep things sensible and Sealion working is impossible. Then, I read about the Halifax-Butler telegram to Germany in June 1940 (t really existed) and the machinations that went on around it and it clicked. That was it. That gave me the date and the PoD.

At almost the same time, the US was in a critical defense strategy debate. Basically, it can be summarized as a "foreign bases" policy versus a "Continental US" strategy. This was critical for future planning because the "foreign bases" approach meant concentrating on the B-29 while the "Continental US" approach meant concentrating on the B-36. In OTL, Britain hung on, validating the Foreign bases policy and the B-29. In TBO, The Halifax-Butler coup (coup is the wrong word, everything was quite legal) worked, the "Continental US " option was validated and the US went full steam on the B-36. Debate was historically correct with regard to substance and timing, the British resistance in the Battle of Britain was critical as per history, only the result was changed as a result of Halifax's actions.

Once that was done, the course of the story was set. We had an invasion of Russia that worked better than in OTL (more troops, more resources, no bombing of Germany), the development of the B-36 as top priority (as demanded by the continental based strategy) and the atomic bomb added in as the last ingredient. That was largely unaffected by the changes. So, the end of the War was set by the political and strategic circumstances. It would be a massive nuclear strike using high-altitude bombing by B-36s. After TBO was written, it was clear to me that the story raised a lot of issues that needed addressing and the rest, as they say, is history.
It's wish fullfilment in the sense that you personally would presumably have like to have seen it happen, though hopefully not via the horrific mass nuclear attacks in TBO.
I must admit, I don't see blowing up Nazi Germany (or other fascists as determined by the Government of the United States) as being a bad idea. Also, to me, nuclear weapons are a part of the enviornment I work in; I suspect I view them much more clinically than most people.
That said, the one thing I do find a little contrived is your conversion of the USSR from a mass murdering totalitarian state arguably worse than the Nazis, and the bitter enemies of the US and the West in general, to a free and reasonably pleasant country that's /extremely/ US-friendly.
Well, there's two factors to this. One is that Zhukov et al really did stage what amounted to a coup in 1942. They went to Stalin, told him that his actions and interference were severely damaging Russian defense and if he wanted to continue, he could do it without them. They gave him a list of demands, he complied with them and that's when the war changed. Details are in Ericssen's "The Road To Stalingrad". In TBO, same coup but the war being that much worse, the action is that much more decisive. Same group of people, more or less the same motivations, just a different result.

In OTL 1942, Stalin really did ask - almost beg - for American and British troops for the Russian Front. He really did offer to have them as independent units under US and British national control fighting on German territory. The US and Brits hummed and debated, then by the time they got around to making the decision, Sixth Army was besieged, the German frontw as crumbling so Stalin back-pedalled. In TBO, Moscow has fallen, Stalingrad is falling, circumstances mean a different decision, the request is accepted and the US Army arrives in Russia. Those troops are vital; the front can't be held without them.

Post war, Russia needs America. The country has lost so much manpower that it can't fight another war (note it takes them ten years to mop up the residue of the German Army in Russia). They need the Americans to survive both militarily and economically. So, the government is smart enough to understand that they need to present a face to the Americans that the US can live with. Hence the change in attitude. Not a matter of choice, driven by circumstance - the Anvil of Necessity. Having started down that line, things carry on that way by force of momentum. Russia isn't necessarily a free country, politically they are most certainly not - there's no elections or anything like that and the President rules (in capital letters). Its a free-er economy. It's pro-US because it has to be to survive (still got a manpower problem) and because the benefits far outweigh the costs. If I had to define Russia in the post-war TBO era, its an intensely pragmatic country. It does what it has to do to make itself work. Later, it finds out that by being such a close ally of the US it shares the shadow of American power and has a position and influence it couldn't possibly have by itself. Also, by being such a close ally, it can bend and shape American policy to suit its own ends.
It isn't /unreasonable/, but I do get a very strong 'author wishes things could've been that way' vibe, and unlike the SAC ascendant it is a genuine suspension-of-disbelief stretcher.
It's probably influenced by the fact that I've always got on well with the Russians I've worked with and found them to be pleasant and congenial company.
In particular I agree with Sea Skimmer in that it seems very unlikely Russia would make any compromises in nuclear security, particularly with the larger number of deployed warheads in TBO.
They haven't really, they've just disguised, concealed and hidden their nuclear capability. Nobody quite knows what the Russian nuclear deterrent is, how much of it is American, how much is Russian, who delivers what etc. Very much the Israeli policy in OTL.
But I suppose I will have to keep guessing on this front. :)
I'm afraid so. :( Sorry. But if you come up with the answers, be warned, keep them to yourself.
When I read Sceptered Isle I will be checking carefully for 'why haven't they got X yet' technology, but for 'Interstellar Highway' presumably you can just say 'horrible nightmares from the dark age, can't explain'. Though that's kinda frustrating, for things like Redleader's space elevators particularly.
Most technology development is going on in space and is space orientated. So, the Moon, Mars and Lagrange point colonies are all well in advance of present day technology (although extrapolatable - I'm trying hard to avoid the use of Handwavium and Unobtanium). Earthly technology isn't that much more developed than OTL, advanced but extrapolated from what we have now. Of course from 2040 to the Interstellar Highway era there's virtually no technology advance at all. Humanity has all it can do to save what they've got. The really big change (structurally) is the development of metal-ceramic composites that can only be made in zero-gravity. I've seen some initial reports on their potential and its truly remarkable.

I really don't know whether a space elevator is practical. I'm now going to make a terrible confession. Sometimes I toss ideas out in the discussion of stories and feed off people's reactions as to whether they are practical or not - and if so, how they can be done. The Space Elevator is a good example. I don't have the technical or metallurgical knowledge to determine whether the idea is practical or not, so I consult people who do. If somebody can come up with a practical, plausible way of doing it, I'll write it in. It has to be detailed though (for example when discussing rifle development in the TBOverse, we went down to the level of considering what kind of machine tooling was available and the economic impact of existing ammunition stocks). So, for example, if the way of building the space elevator is to use carbon molecular level monofilament, we have to know how to make it, what the processing costs are likely to be, what alternative uses for the material there might be and what the priority of those other uses will be compared with the Space Elevator.
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