Who SHOULD have won the Clone Wars?

[ArcturusMengsk]

Watching the animated series made me think: if we removed Sidious' manipulations from the equation and made it so that the war was 'legitimate', which faction would have come out on top? I know it probably wouldn't have happened without Sidious altogether - at least not in the form we're familiar with; the stagnation of the Republic and subsequent balkanization of the galaxy would surely have led to a similarly tumultuous event regardless - but, for the sake of the scenario, we can imagine that Palpatine decides to quit micromanaging the war for a minute and watch with interest as events run their natural course.

In other words: Had the war been 'fair', would the Separatists have had a chance? I'm inclined to say yes, since, as far as I know, they possessed vastly superior industrial capabilities, more disposable troops, and an overall willingness to violate morality to achieve their aims. But I have no real way of proving it.

[Darth Fanboy]

Without Palpatine's manipulations there is no Trade Federation military buildup, there is no foundation for the eventual CIS Droid Army. Without Sidious, who brings Dooku into the fold, there is no leadership to bring the CIS together into a force that could oppose the Republic. Without either of those two, it is very unlikely that there is no General Grievous.

Had the war been anything but a manipulation it would have never been fought.

Edit:

As far as addressing your question goes, I would say that without the Sith, if the CIS had still formed, they would be in no way able to deal with the Jedi Order, especially if that "dark cloud" brought about by the Sith is not hampering their abilities.

[ArcturusMengsk]

Without Palpatine's manipulations there is no Trade Federation military buildup, there is no foundation for the eventual CIS Droid Army. Without Sidious, who brings Dooku into the fold, there is no leadership to bring the CIS together into a force that could oppose the Republic. Without either of those two, it is very unlikely that there is no General Grievous.

Had the war been anything but a manipulation it would have never been fought.

Edit:

As far as addressing your question goes, I would say that without the Sith, if the CIS had still formed, they would be in no way able to deal with the Jedi Order, especially if that "dark cloud" brought about by the Sith is not hampering their abilities.

Presuming that both sides exist precisely as depicted in the films and literature, but Sidious decides to not manipulate battles and strategy on either side to achieve his own ends - a 'fair' CIS vs. Republic fight.

To put it another way: Dooku, Grievous, et al. all continue to exist, but Sidious, for whatever reason, decides not to interfere and support one side over the other when it would be to his advantage (as he did, for instance, on Cartao) - maybe he had a vision. He stays out of it, letting both sides wage war without his influence.

Any clearer?

[Dark Flame]

I'd throw my vote in for the Republic. Without Palpatine causing problems on Coruscant, the Jedi could have gotten into the war much more effectively, and I think that that would have been the crucial difference.

[Sidewinder]

A state with a million worlds it can draw resources from (the Republic) versus a state with about ten thousand (the CIS)? I say the Republic wins for the same reason the US won the American Civil War-- they have more human and material resources to throw into the meat grinder.

[Darth Raptor]

A state with a million worlds it can draw resources from (the Republic) versus a state with about ten thousand (the CIS)? I say the Republic wins for the same reason the US won the American Civil War-- they have more human and material resources to throw into the meat grinder.

Don't the systems under Confederate control boast a disproportionately large share of the galaxy's economic wealth? Virtually every founding member is some kind of industrial or financial powerhouse. I don't think with their quadrillions of battle droids that the Confederacy is exactly short on material.

[Stark]

How does the CIS have 'about ten thousand' systems? Didn't ten thousand new systems join at a meeting where nobody seemed very impressed in AOTC? Using a Civil War comparison when the CIS has a massive 'human resource' numerical advantage seems strange.

[Jim Raynor]

How does the CIS have 'about ten thousand' systems? Didn't ten thousand new systems join at a meeting where nobody seemed very impressed in AOTC? Using a Civil War comparison when the CIS has a massive 'human resource' numerical advantage seems strange.

Yeah, ten thousand wasn't the upper limit. Those were 10,000 systems which presumably joined the CIS willingly, after the Trade Federation, Banking Clan, Techno Union, etc. had already come onboard. We know that the Trade Federation was represented in the Galactic Senate, which meant that it probably controlled an entire sector. The other big corporations there could be on a similar scale.

I don't think with their quadrillions of battle droids that the Confederacy is exactly short on material.

It's quintillions, according to ROTS ICS. A mere several quadrillion battledroids isn't impressive at all in a galaxy with tens of millions of inhabited worlds. Making conservative assumptions like the Republic only having 10 million worlds (the EU claims several tens of millions) and that the average population is about 6 billion (basically ignoring all the huge city worlds like Coruscant), the Republic could come up with quadrillions of troops simply by drafting a small percentage of its population.

The idea that the good, realistic number of battledroids is several quadrillion is a brain bug that I think can be traced back Karen Traviss. She pulled the supposedly "big" number out of her ass in her wretched short story Odds, without doing the math. Then she shot it down as if it was something ridiculous (because we all know the Grand Army was only 3 million), even though it was in fact too small.

[Zirotecha]

The CIS of course. A Collocoid Annihilator Droid itself would blast 2 platoons off their feet like a clone trooper stated, but calling it a thing. Some droidekas would be pwned by a clone commando or AT-PT. And the battle droids, the quintillions of b1s, b2s, and b3 ultra battle droids would certainly crush the rep. One large prob would be the jedi. They pwn the battle droids, tanks, and everything.






The CIS would still win.

[Anguirus]

A Collocoid Annihilator Droid itself would blast 2 platoons off their feet like a clone trooper stated

Pity that they are expensive, rare, and useless against armored units. And that even a single clone trooper can kill one with a lucky shot (reference AotC).

(I assume that you are talking about Droidekas...but if you are not, then you are talking about a unit that is EVEN RARER and probably still can't stand up to a single AT-TE.)

Anyway, I think a lot of you guys are missing the point. The Republic was controlling the war because it controlled space...its fleet of Star Destroyers and other Kuati bruisers was bottling up CIS ground forces in the Outer Rim. The CIS could only have won a victory by convincing the Republic that the war wasn't worth the cost, and even then, the Republic would still exis and still be more powerful than the CIS.

[Darth Fanboy]

Presuming that both sides exist precisely as depicted in the films and literature, but Sidious decides to not manipulate battles and strategy on either side to achieve his own ends - a 'fair' CIS vs. Republic fight.

To put it another way: Dooku, Grievous, et al. all continue to exist, but Sidious, for whatever reason, decides not to interfere and support one side over the other when it would be to his advantage (as he did, for instance, on Cartao) - maybe he had a vision. He stays out of it, letting both sides wage war without his influence.

Any clearer?

I understand exactly what you're saying, i'm just telling you that it's a scenario not possible given the circumstances.

Either way the answer I gave in my Edit still stands, without Sidious influence the Jedi no longer have to worry about defending themselves from within and can focus their entire efforts on dealing with the CIS. The Confederacy has nothing that could stnad against a Jedi order unhindered by the Dark Side, and the Clone Army.

[Darth Fanboy]

http://starwars.wikia.com/wiki/Colicoid ... ator_Droid

Basically Droideka wank that actually made it into the canon. They were very powerful, but ultimately did little to change the tide of the war as the Republic fleets still managed to maintain the Sieges IIRC.

[Anguirus]

Ok, so there are one hundred of them, they are mostly on one planet, and it usually takes about a dozen AT-TEs to beat them. So in the worst case scenario, the Republic loses 1200 AT-TEs that it would not have otherwise? Wow, that's gonna turn the tide of the war.

More realistically, the CIS would probably try to ship them somewhere on a cargo ship and the convoy would be destroyed by a flotilla of Venators.

[Duckie]

One hundred badass droids?

Even assuming said droids are worth a million men in terms of fighting power, they're still defeated by 0.00001% of the galaxy levying a percentage point of population as militia against them.
100 Badass Droids on the side of the Seperatists makes as much difference as giving the Kaiser the command of Otto Skorzeny would change WWI's outcome. Less, even, as Skorzeny was pretty badass and good at causing crazy havoc in spec. ops type stuff.

[Lord Pounder]

Ok, so there are one hundred of them, they are mostly on one planet, and it usually takes about a dozen AT-TEs to beat them. So in the worst case scenario, the Republic loses 1200 AT-TEs that it would not have otherwise? Wow, that's gonna turn the tide of the war.

More realistically, the CIS would probably try to ship them somewhere on a cargo ship and the convoy would be destroyed by a flotilla of Venators.

Would this be one of those cargo ships that are larger and just as heavily armed as a Venator? The CIS where hardly without a good Navy.

[Warsie]

Anyway, I think a lot of you guys are missing the point. The Republic was controlling the war because it controlled space...its fleet of Star Destroyers and other Kuati bruisers was bottling up CIS ground forces in the Outer Rim. The CIS could only have won a victory by convincing the Republic that the war wasn't worth the cost, and even then, the Republic would still exis and still be more powerful than the CIS.

The Republic was still having its' ass kicked in the Outer Rim sieges; the Confederates had an advantage in Fortress world where they would supply themselves indefinitely often, and the only problem would be civilian casualties (supposedly Sluis Van's civilian population starved due to the Republic Blockade int he Outer Rim sieges. The Republic did not "bottle" the CIS out there; Grievous ordered a retreat and even still the millions of CIS ships were effective in dealing with the Republic and keeping the Outer Rim worlds form being blockaded often.

EDIT: Palpatine did not "rig" the Clone Wars; he allowed the war to go on and did not interfere heavily; he only interfered somewhat so he would be in a position to take advantage.

[Anguirus]

Would this be one of those cargo ships that are larger and just as heavily armed as a Venator? The CIS where hardly without a good Navy.

A flotilla should still do the job nicely, considering that the Republic knows where these hundred droids are coming from. And hey, even if they don't it doesn't matter, because we're just talking about a few uberwank droids here. Might as well say the TIE Defender would have won the war for the Empire without Luke mucking about.

Episode III shows us that the Republic's Kuati ships were highly effective against CIS designs of comparable role and tonnage.

The Republic was still having its' ass kicked in the Outer Rim sieges

It is impossible to have a planetary siege unless you have control of the spaceways. What do you think a siege is? Moreover, Obi-Wan seemed to think they were "going very well."

[Warsie]

It is impossible to have a planetary siege unless you have control of the spaceways. What do you think a siege is? Moreover, Obi-Wan seemed to think they were "going very well."

1. "Outer Rim Sieges" was a broad term for all the shit happening in the Outer Rim. Other people called it "Outer Rim Wars", so the name does not mean everything; Obi-Wan may have thought it was going "Well" but so did the Confederate leadership in that they were able to maintain themselves; for every world the Republic took the CIS was able to fill in and take a world from the Republic.

2. "millions" of CIS ships were still able to effectively duel Republic Fleets in the Rim areas, so they could not even get decently close to blockading worlds sometimes; combined with the Fortress Worlds and their factories.

EDIT: And in the novelization of ROTS: Obi-Wan says the war progress is more unclear.

[Master_Baerne]

A state with a million worlds it can draw resources from (the Republic) versus a state with about ten thousand (the CIS)? I say the Republic wins for the same reason the US won the American Civil War-- they have more human and material resources to throw into the meat grinder.

Plus, droids don't have the Rebel Yell

I agree. The vastly superior numbers that the Republic can bring to bear, combined with the prescense of Jedi, almost guarantees their victory.

[Cykeisme]

As we saw events unfold, the CIS lost the war; this is, of course, with Palpatine's manipulation of key events.

Since the OP would like to discuss how events would have unfolded without Palpy's intervention, the real question is this:
How much effect did Palpatine's string-pulling have?


I'd say if he didn't instigate the attack on Coruscant (he, as Sidious, ordered Grievous to attack), Count Dooku would not have been slain; as we understand, he was a major political and military rallying point for the Separatist forces.
Furthermore, he provided the Republic military with the precise location of General Grievous, leading to the assassination of the cyborg general by a dogged, bloodthirsty Jedi Master and his marauding band of clones.

Arguably, by this point, the Separatist war machine would have crumbled under the Republic's constant assault; the montage of Outer Rim Siege scenes are but a tiny slice in the massive war, but we can assume that the writer's intent is to select scenes that give the viewers a general feel for how things are going, at large.

Finally, of course, he finishes this off by leading his new apprentice directly to the hideaway of the Separatist political leadership, finally sealing the deal with the remote deactivation of the entire droid army.


Considering he's responsible for the existence of the CIS in the first place, it makes things a bit complicated and very relevant when the qusetion is asked:
Which of these parts, exactly, are we removing from this RAR?

[Havok]

I think the OP is asking...

Palpatine starts the CIS, hands the reigns over to Dooku and ceases to interfer with his leadership.

Palaptine becomes Chancellor and leads the Republic against the CIS with no more involvement in the CIS whatsoever.

Almost like an intergalactic war game between the two Sith Lords.

[Surlethe]

Given Palpatine's intimate knowledge of the CIS, his superior skills in the Force (he would paste the wall with Dooku), and the Republic's superior numbers, my reaction is that the Republic curbstomps the CIS, especially since Palpatine will presumably no longer need to milk the war for every last bit of popularity.

[Connor MacLeod]

In theory the Separatists had yearS (a decade?) of military buildup on their side prior to the outbreak of the Clone Wars. The Republic was essentially massive but unprepared for war. Some sectors had their own defence forces/fleets (some, like Kuat, were downright massive.) at least in the Core systems, but others were virtually undefended (Naboo being a prime example.) It also took some time before the Republic's industrial might began to equalize things (about a year or so IIRC).

Thus in theory its possible for the Separatists to have won a significant advantage if not outright victory before the Republic has time to actually mobilize its own power, at least if they're intelligently lead and argument is minimized (the "intelligently lead" bit is possible, I believe Grievous adn some other military leaders were around by hte time of Geonosis, but no one particular was dominant. However, the Separatists were also fundamentally bankers and commercial interests and tend to be virtual ignoramuses of military matters, and have interfered on more than one occasion.)

At the very least, the Separatists could take/hold alot of key territory and expand their own territory. This would give them accecss to some resources, of course, ,but the other key advantage the Separatists had is that they could establish construction facitliies for troops vehicles and ships vritually anywhere. Barren planets and moons, aseroid belts, etc. via automated factories, so long as they had access to those resources. Much easier to build than Clones were, anyhow.

In the short term, the Republic is best off trading space/territory for time, using a draft/conscription to fill out its clone trroops, and rely heavily on defensive fleets to establish cordons. Hit and run/gureilla tactics could help in the year or so it would take them to build up any sizable fleet numbers.

In the short term, I'd say the CIS has a chance of winning if they're fast, but the REpublic in the long term if they're allowed to bring their resources to bear and if the CIS doesn't spam out automated factories. But I'm not betting on unified leadership frfom the CIS Side at all.

[CaptJodan]

I'd say removing the shroud of the Darkside, let's say about the time of the end of AOTC, would do much for the Jedi's ability to prosecute the war. They seemed to still get a sense of things and what was right and wrong through the Force even with the shroud. Without it, they likely would have had an easier time diagnosing what the enemy was up to. This is a society that basically kept the peace for thousands of years with little or no major standing army, just the Jedi and whatever support from local governments and such. I don't think Dooku is up to shouding them like Sideous was.

For that, and many other reasons mentioned, I'd say the CIS ultimately loses. The majority of the battles fought in the cartoons were victories for the Republic, especially when Jedi were invovled. Dooku and Grevious stay on the run, hit targets they can hit and run as they did and try to avoid the Jedi, but in the end fall.

[Connor MacLeod]

How is that going to "remove' the Shroud? At most it might lessen its impact some, but a big part of the Shroud was the Clone Wars itself - the perpetuation of violence, hate, pain and suffering that the JEdi were a part of was as much a factor in their downfall as the Clones/Order 66 or any other factor. A widespread conflict even without palpatine's machinations is bound to have at least some adverse effects on Jedi abilities.