Sorry Putin, You're only making Cheney's penis harder.

[wolveraptor]

Despite the fact its been mention several times already outside of this thread.

What can I say? I haven't been on the board much lately. I'm not familiar with the threads you're referring to.

[Illuminatus Primus]

I had no idea that Amedinejad was a powerless figurehead. Though in retrospect, it seems obvious. What real office would be titled "Supreme Leader"? It's right out of Orwellian ethos. Plus, the man is horribly incompetent at foreign politics.

Amedinejad is President of Iran. The Grand Ayotollah Ali Khamenei is the Supreme Leader of Iran.

Needless to say, Iranians (or Persians, if you prefer), do not speak English, so excessively reading into the rough English translation of a Farsi word with its own culturally-specific etymology and connotations is not insightful or productive.

This describes the political structure of Iran.

[wolveraptor]

Amedinejad is President of Iran. The Grand Ayotollah Ali Khamenei is the Supreme Leader of Iran.

Needless to say, Iranians (or Persians, if you prefer), do not speak English, so excessively reading into the rough English translation of a Farsi word with its own culturally-specific etymology and connotations is not insightful or productive.

Conceded.

Heh, I like this quote from your Wiki link to the Iranian power structure:

The reformists say this system creates a closed circle of power. Iranian reformists, such as Mohammad-Ali Abtahi have considered this to be the core legal obstacle for the reform movement in Iran.
However, conservatives reject the existence of a circle, stating the ever-changing members of the Guardian Council and the Assembly of Experts, as well as human free-will, makes this system of checks and balances in power that exist in any system.

Bah, no need for checks on power! Free will takes care of everything!

[Ryan Thunder]

I had no idea that Amedinejad was a powerless figurehead. Though in retrospect, it seems obvious. What real office would be titled "Supreme Leader"? It's right out of Orwellian ethos. Plus, the man is horribly incompetent at foreign politics.

Hey, somebody else who doesn't have time to read the whole board. And I thought Pablo was implying that it was public knowledge or something...

Although, yeah... would've seen it if I'd actually thought about that particular aspect of it...

[Omega18]

China would most likely join the bandwagon, despite economics and all, since in a world without Russia, the US will be far more able to effectively put all sorts of pressure on China on many more issues (if you remember, the Bush admin pre 9/11 was going on and on about the so called "China threat").

China doesn't have to actually have to invade the continental US or anything. They could open up a second front around their corner of the Pacific, which at the very least would tie down and prevent American allies and forces in the region from participating in any action against Russia.

Uh, obviously there isn't a scenario where Russia is going to cease to be around. Russia's nukes ensure any conflict will remain limited in scope. (Either country going nuclear against the other is especially absurd with regards to a situation without many direct Russian interests at stake in the case of Iran.)

You need to explain WHAT China intends to do in order to open up a second front in the Pacific. China lacks the ability to actually successfully outright invade Taiwan right now, and the US could intervene solely with naval and some degree of airpower since Taiwan has a massive army with its reserves mobilized to deal with potentially very large numbers of Chinese troops that land on Taiwan. Japan would be actually a far more difficult target for any military actions by China, especially with the power of their navy. In the case of a North Korean invasion of South Korea with Chinese assistance, the reality is that the situation would create a diplomatic and political disaster for China if they tried it.

South Korea really does have a significant overall military advantage over North Korea at this point and its continuing to grow. Its also quite possible countries such as the UK and France would send significant forces to help defend South Korea from an invasion in such a scenario. The huge problem for China is that the US and South Korea would rapidly gain almost complete air superiority over Chinese forces in the Korean theater, particularly given how South Korea's Air Force massively outclasses North Korea's at this point. North Korea has limited infrastructure for logistics, and the US and South Korea could bomb the heck out of supply convoys trying to get to the front lines. South Korea has a large highly capable military once its reserves are mobilized, and these forces combined with US ones and possibly other allies could crush the force China could effectively project into South Korea. The difference from the Korean War is South Korea has a very effective army at this point with increasingly modern and sophisticated equipment.

Such an invasion of South Korea might screw up US plans for Iran at least for a limited period in this hypothetical scenario, but the diplomatic consequences of China suffering a bloody defeat in their attempt to invade South Korea in combination with North Korea would massively dwarf any benefit from setting the US back in Iran.

[Omega18]

Oh yes, one thing I left out in this situation is its distinctly possible Kim Jong Il will decide that attempting to invade even with Chinese help is likely to be a disaster so he'll simply torpedo the idea which removes any way China can realistically try to effectively go after South Korea.

[Pelranius]

China would most likely join the bandwagon, despite economics and all, since in a world without Russia, the US will be far more able to effectively put all sorts of pressure on China on many more issues (if you remember, the Bush admin pre 9/11 was going on and on about the so called "China threat").

China doesn't have to actually have to invade the continental US or anything. They could open up a second front around their corner of the Pacific, which at the very least would tie down and prevent American allies and forces in the region from participating in any action against Russia.

Uh, obviously there isn't a scenario where Russia is going to cease to be around. Russia's nukes ensure any conflict will remain limited in scope. (Either country going nuclear against the other is especially absurd with regards to a situation without many direct Russian interests at stake in the case of Iran.)

You need to explain WHAT China intends to do in order to open up a second front in the Pacific. China lacks the ability to actually successfully outright invade Taiwan right now, and the US could intervene solely with naval and some degree of airpower since Taiwan has a massive army with its reserves mobilized to deal with potentially very large numbers of Chinese troops that land on Taiwan. Japan would be actually a far more difficult target for any military actions by China, especially with the power of their navy. In the case of a North Korean invasion of South Korea with Chinese assistance, the reality is that the situation would create a diplomatic and political disaster for China if they tried it.

South Korea really does have a significant overall military advantage over North Korea at this point and its continuing to grow. Its also quite possible countries such as the UK and France would send significant forces to help defend South Korea from an invasion in such a scenario. The huge problem for China is that the US and South Korea would rapidly gain almost complete air superiority over Chinese forces in the Korean theater, particularly given how South Korea's Air Force massively outclasses North Korea's at this point. North Korea has limited infrastructure for logistics, and the US and South Korea could bomb the heck out of supply convoys trying to get to the front lines. South Korea has a large highly capable military once its reserves are mobilized, and these forces combined with US ones and possibly other allies could crush the force China could effectively project into South Korea. The difference from the Korean War is South Korea has a very effective army at this point with increasingly modern and sophisticated equipment.

Such an invasion of South Korea might screw up US plans for Iran at least for a limited period in this hypothetical scenario, but the diplomatic consequences of China suffering a bloody defeat in their attempt to invade South Korea in combination with North Korea would massively dwarf any benefit from setting the US back in Iran.

Well, Chinese military action is only in likely in conjunction with whatever military actions Russia is also undertaking, which means they're going to be an annoyance with the purpose of bleeding away assets that would otherwise be used to attack Russia (which in this scenario would most likely be naval and aviation). The PLA is most likely to send out strike aircraft like the JH-7A and H-6 bombers to attack military shipping, as well as using its fleet of submarines to lay mines and generally inconvenience naval movement in the Asian Pacific. Russian aviation assets could also be theoretically based out of Chinese installations as well, though their impact is debatable.

As for China doing anything with Taiwan, the most likely course of military action for China to institute a blockade of some sort around the island. They're not really capable of doing anything else.

The Chinese aren't going to invade South Korea by land (it's not really going to make much of a difference either way) and why waste the effort convincing Pyongyang to do so? One American division isn't really going to be much in the grand strategic picture, and it's not as if the South Korean army figures into American invasion plans for Russia or China. Though Kim Jong Il might try something on his lonesome (doubt either Beijing or Moscow is going to bail his ass out this time, unless the US makes it to the Yalu).

[Omega18]

Well, Chinese military action is only in likely in conjunction with whatever military actions Russia is also undertaking, which means they're going to be an annoyance with the purpose of bleeding away assets that would otherwise be used to attack Russia (which in this scenario would most likely be naval and aviation). The PLA is most likely to send out strike aircraft like the JH-7A and H-6 bombers to attack military shipping, as well as using its fleet of submarines to lay mines and generally inconvenience naval movement in the Asian Pacific. Russian aviation assets could also be theoretically based out of Chinese installations as well, though their impact is debatable.

As for China doing anything with Taiwan, the most likely course of military action for China to institute a blockade of some sort around the island. They're not really capable of doing anything else.

For starters on point two, the question is whether that actions would even significantly impair a US military effort against Iran. The reality is Taiwan can use its ports on the West Coast, which is an area where it would simply be suicidal for China to use surface ships as long as Taiwan's Air Force is intact.

This means you're talking about a key portion of the blockade basically being exclusively sub based. Taiwan has quite a number of different ships effective in the ASW role, including 4 Kidd Class Destroyers. The US could basically just deploy a large portion of their P-3C aircraft force in Taiwan along with some presumably based in Japan, and a substantial portion of their attack sub force to rather quickly break the blockade. Most of China's diesel subs are simply not that good right now which makes them vulnerable to ASW work.

Its not clear what you're even talking about with "aircraft hitting military shipping. The simply reality is the overwhelming portion of the military shipping simply doesn't have to get close to China, particularly any shipping going to Iran. The only Chinese aircraft with the range to pull that off unless we're talking about Kamikaze attacks are the H-6 bombers, and they would be sitting ducks against any sort of US fighters used to intercept them. This could well be US aircraft being based in the Philippines or Singapore, a related huge problem for the Chinese is the crowded shipping lanes make collateral damage extremely likely with such aerial attacks, and it could even end up being Singapore's Air Force which deal with the Chinese bombers on their own.

Mining is an even more problematic proposal. Mining the Strait of Malacca or the Singapore Strait would case much of Asia to intervene militarily against China. Most other locations would have the mines spread out too much to be very effective. If China tries to screw around with shipping lanes near China, and obviously doing it to themselves doesn't make sense, they are likely to get countries such as Japan involved. You should keep in mind that Japan probably has the navy with the second most potent ASW abilities in the world, and formidable de-mining capabilities as well, so they could mostly shoulder the burden on their own.

[Omega18]

Edit: That should have read Taiwan's ports on their East Coast.[/b]

[Ritterin Sophia]

Mining or performing anti-shipping operations against Taiwan are considered attacks and could be misconstrued as a prelude to invasion, and the US has stated that should China try to force Taiwan to return to them, then they will be protected. Additionally, Japan has some military advisors in Taiwan and Singapore does training there, which means it shouldn't take much convincing from the US to have them throw in with the defence of Taiwan.

[Pelranius]

For starters on point two, the question is whether that actions would even significantly impair a US military effort against Iran. The reality is Taiwan can use its ports on the West Coast, which is an area where it would simply be suicidal for China to use surface ships as long as Taiwan's Air Force is intact.

This means you're talking about a key portion of the blockade basically being exclusively sub based. Taiwan has quite a number of different ships effective in the ASW role, including 4 Kidd Class Destroyers. The US could basically just deploy a large portion of their P-3C aircraft force in Taiwan along with some presumably based in Japan, and a substantial portion of their attack sub force to rather quickly break the blockade. Most of China's diesel subs are simply not that good right now which makes them vulnerable to ASW work.

Its not clear what you're even talking about with "aircraft hitting military shipping. The simply reality is the overwhelming portion of the military shipping simply doesn't have to get close to China, particularly any shipping going to Iran. The only Chinese aircraft with the range to pull that off unless we're talking about Kamikaze attacks are the H-6 bombers, and they would be sitting ducks against any sort of US fighters used to intercept them. This could well be US aircraft being based in the Philippines or Singapore, a related huge problem for the Chinese is the crowded shipping lanes make collateral damage extremely likely with such aerial attacks, and it could even end up being Singapore's Air Force which deal with the Chinese bombers on their own.

Mining is an even more problematic proposal. Mining the Strait of Malacca or the Singapore Strait would case much of Asia to intervene militarily against China. Most other locations would have the mines spread out too much to be very effective. If China tries to screw around with shipping lanes near China, and obviously doing it to themselves doesn't make sense, they are likely to get countries such as Japan involved. You should keep in mind that Japan probably has the navy with the second most potent ASW abilities in the world, and formidable de-mining capabilities as well, so they could mostly shoulder the burden on their own.

I'm viewing Chinese involvement in the context of a wider American action against Russian territory in general. My reasoning is that the PLA will overwhelm (or attempt to) American allies such as Japan, RoC, South Korea et al to the point that we will move in to intervene (especially if Russian forces start using Chinese bases). Drawing out American forces doesn't require having to go aboard to the Straits of Malacca or what not.

As for China blockading Taiwan, they're not going to just use submarines. I believe that the PRC is most likely to use the submarines to restrict the sea routes to and from Taiwan. The PLAN will probably then use surface assets to board inbound and outbound maritime commerce and indefinitely quarantine them under some auspice like "looking for WMD" or some other line, into Chinese ports. It'll be a bit like the Cuban blockade in concept, though I don't think the PLAN has quite the numbers to completely cut off maritime traffic (though they probably could force an economic collapse). Beijing may be counting on its vast arsenal of ballistic, cruise missiles, long range artillery rockets and glide bombs to deter Taiwan from escalating the situation attacking the said surface assets.

Though mind you, such a response will depend largely upon the political climate of the time (probably to something like a declaration of independence) and is more likely a political pressure tool rather than an attempt to go into all out conflict, since it's less dramatic than firing off ballistic missiles and theoretically should be bloodless (though it could quite possibly get hot if Taipei decides to up the stakes by attacking involved PLAN assets or if someone runs into a mine). As such, it's admittedly not very relevant to the type of situation we're discussing (a Russian vs. American conflict)

As for the ports on the East Coast of Taiwan, they're really not capable of handling commercial traffic on any appreciable scale. And there have been unpleasant incidents with PLAN SSKs surfacing unnoticed near American carriers (like the business with the Kitty Hawk) and a very old Han SSN once got inside Japanese territorial waters for a while before someone noticed.

[Omega18]

I'm viewing Chinese involvement in the context of a wider American action against Russian territory in general. My reasoning is that the PLA will overwhelm (or attempt to) American allies such as Japan, RoC, South Korea et al to the point that we will move in to intervene (especially if Russian forces start using Chinese bases). Drawing out American forces doesn't require having to go aboard to the Straits of Malacca or what not.

As for China blockading Taiwan, they're not going to just use submarines. I believe that the PRC is most likely to use the submarines to restrict the sea routes to and from Taiwan. The PLAN will probably then use surface assets to board inbound and outbound maritime commerce and indefinitely quarantine them under some auspice like "looking for WMD" or some other line, into Chinese ports. It'll be a bit like the Cuban blockade in concept, though I don't think the PLAN has quite the numbers to completely cut off maritime traffic (though they probably could force an economic collapse). Beijing may be counting on its vast arsenal of ballistic, cruise missiles, long range artillery rockets and glide bombs to deter Taiwan from escalating the situation attacking the said surface assets.

Though mind you, such a response will depend largely upon the political climate of the time (probably to something like a declaration of independence) and is more likely a political pressure tool rather than an attempt to go into all out conflict, since it's less dramatic than firing off ballistic missiles and theoretically should be bloodless (though it could quite possibly get hot if Taipei decides to up the stakes by attacking involved PLAN assets or if someone runs into a mine). As such, it's admittedly not very relevant to the type of situation we're discussing (a Russian vs. American conflict)

As for the ports on the East Coast of Taiwan, they're really not capable of handling commercial traffic on any appreciable scale. And there have been unpleasant incidents with PLAN SSKs surfacing unnoticed near American carriers (like the business with the Kitty Hawk) and a very old Han SSN once got inside Japanese territorial waters for a while before someone noticed.

It frankly sounds like you're just advocating stupidity on the part of China then. Both South Korea and Japan have formidable air forces at this point, and China can't project power very effectively to where its needed given the limited ranges of many of their planes. That's the sort of stunt that could bring in all sorts of other countries and their air forces into the region to deal with Chinese menace suddenly committing unprovoked mad acts.

In the blockade scenario, unless you're talking about minor harassment of a few ships, which won't draw a significant US assets out, Taiwan WILL use its Air Force to start hitting Chinese naval ships after a bit. Its a flat out matter of national survival since economic collapse would eventually force Taiwan to surrender to China otherwise. Especially if not attacked at all first, Taiwan's Air Force could launch a quite devastating sudden attack upon China's surface fleet if those ships expose themselves as part of a blockade. This would essentially end any threat of an immediate Chinese invasion and badly reduce China's military options in dealing with Taiwan. China can't reach Taiwan proper with rocket artillery and can only hit a couple of outlying islands and doesn't even have glide bombs, which means that China can only launch limited terror attacks in this situation which won't persuade Taiwan to do anything. As long as Taiwan tried diplomatic measures first, Taiwan can get away with this actions internationally. This is particularly true since much of the shipping going to Taiwan is from other countries, and they won't be happy about their transports being detained. You don't seem to get that limited risks from subs won't permanently shut down trade to Taiwan, nor how much shipping not going to Taiwan still goes through the area and could get inadvertently sunk by Chinese subs.

[Pelranius]

It frankly sounds like you're just advocating stupidity on the part of China then. Both South Korea and Japan have formidable air forces at this point, and China can't project power very effectively to where its needed given the limited ranges of many of their planes. That's the sort of stunt that could bring in all sorts of other countries and their air forces into the region to deal with Chinese menace suddenly committing unprovoked mad acts.

In the blockade scenario, unless you're talking about minor harassment of a few ships, which won't draw a significant US assets out, Taiwan WILL use its Air Force to start hitting Chinese naval ships after a bit. Its a flat out matter of national survival since economic collapse would eventually force Taiwan to surrender to China otherwise. Especially if not attacked at all first, Taiwan's Air Force could launch a quite devastating sudden attack upon China's surface fleet if those ships expose themselves as part of a blockade. This would essentially end any threat of an immediate Chinese invasion and badly reduce China's military options in dealing with Taiwan. China can't reach Taiwan proper with rocket artillery and can only hit a couple of outlying islands and doesn't even have glide bombs, which means that China can only launch limited terror attacks in this situation which won't persuade Taiwan to do anything. As long as Taiwan tried diplomatic measures first, Taiwan can get away with this actions internationally. This is particularly true since much of the shipping going to Taiwan is from other countries, and they won't be happy about their transports being detained. You don't seem to get that limited risks from subs won't permanently shut down trade to Taiwan, nor how much shipping not going to Taiwan still goes through the area and could get inadvertently sunk by Chinese subs.

Well, China does have glide bombs (LS-6) and their WS-2 rocket artillery has a range of 200km (and a arms expo chart showed future developments with ranges of 300km+ !). sinodefence.com has more info on those two systems.

I'll supply a more detailed rebuttal latter. Have a lot of work tonight.

[Omega18]

Well, China does have glide bombs (LS-6) and their WS-2 rocket artillery has a range of 200km (and a arms expo chart showed future developments with ranges of 300km+ !). sinodefence.com has more info on those two systems.

Sinodefense is notorious for giving inaccurate information and engaging in China wank.

The relevant issue is the WS-2 is not in service and presumably available in rather small numbers. The other key to understand is the WS-2 is going to be so extremely inaccurate towards its maximum ranges, so its really only useful as a terror weapon. They can't do significant damage compared to what a blockade can do. Its hard to find remotely reliable information about the LS-6 and if its actually available in relevant numbers at this point.