THE largest dam in Iraq is in danger of an imminent collapse that could unleash a huge wave of water, possibly drowning 500,000 people, new assessments by the US Army Corps of Engineers show.
A collapse would put Mosul under 20 metres of water and parts of Baghdad under 4.5 metres, according to Abdulkhalik Thanoon Ayoub, the dam manager.
Even in a country gripped by daily bloodshed, the possibility of a catastrophic failure of the Mosul dam had alarmed US officials, said Abdulkhalik Thanoon Ayoub.
"The Mosul dam is judged to have an unacceptable annual failure probability," an Army Corps of Engineers draft report says.
At the same time, a US reconstruction project to help shore up the dam in northern Iraq has been marred by incompetence and mismanagement, according to Iraqi officials and a report by a US oversight agency that was to be published yesterday. The reconstruction project, worth at least $US27 million, was not intended to be a permanent solution to the dam's deficiencies.
The effort to prevent a failure of the dam has been complicated by behind-the-scenes wrangling between Iraqi and US officials over the severity of the problem and how much money should be allocated to fix it. The Army Corps has recommended building a second dam downstream as a fail-safe measure, but Iraqi officials have rejected the proposal, arguing that it is unnecessary and too expensive.
The debate has taken place largely out of public view because Iraqi and US embassy officials have refused to discuss the details of safety studies - commissioned by the US government for at least $6 million - so as not to frighten Iraqi citizens. Portions of the draft report were read to The Washington Post by an Army Corps official who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter. The Post also reviewed an Army Corps PowerPoint presentation on the dam.
"The Army Corps of Engineers determined that the dam presented unacceptable risks," the US ambassador, Ryan Crocker, and the US commander in Iraq, General David Petraeus, wrote in a May 3 letter to the Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki. "Assuming a worst-case scenario, an instantaneous failure of Mosul dam filled to its maximum operating level could result in a flood wave 20 metres deep at Mosul, which would result in a significant loss of life and property."
Sitting in a picturesque valley 70 kilometres along the Tigris River north of Mosul, the earthen dam has one fundamental problem - it was built on top of gypsum, which dissolves when it comes into contact with water.
Almost immediately after the dam was completed in the early 1980s, engineers began injecting the dam with grout, a liquefied mixture of cement and other additives. More than 45,000 tonnes of material have been pumped into the dam since then in a continual effort to prevent the structure, which can hold up to 11 million megalitres of water, from collapsing.
After the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 US officials began to study risks posed by the dam, which they said were underestimated by Iraqis.
"Iraqi government believes dam is safe," concluded the Army Corps presentation, dated December 2006.
In an interview on Monday Iraq's Minister of Water Resources, Abdul Latif Rashid, said he believed the safety situation was not critical and that he was more inclined to trust his engineers than US reports.
"Is the dam going to collapse tomorrow?" he said. "I can't tell you that. Let us hope that we avoid a disaster and focus now on a solution."
The Army Corps has recommended that a partially built dam at Badush, which lies between the dam and Mosul, be finished as a stopgap measure in case the Mosul dam collapses.
But Iraqi officials would rather spend $300 million on a smaller version of the Badush dam that would generate electricity and provide irrigation, but not serve as a safety valve in case Mosul dam breaks.
Wee! This could be a great new development for the whole mess over there!
Good fucking god. So, the dam was screwed up from the begining (it's dissolving, for fuck's sake) and, upon hearing a proposal to build a secondary dam (even if it is in case of an emergency) gets rejected by the Iraqi government? The Hell?
"To make an apple pie from scratch you must first invent the universe."
— Carl Sagan
Well, that's one way to clean things up in Iraq...
'Ai! ai!' wailed Legolas. 'A Balrog! A Balrog is come!'
Gimli stared with wide eyes. 'Durin's Bane!' he cried, and letting his axe fall he covered his face.
'A Balrog,' muttered Gandalf. 'Now I understand.' He faltered and leaned heavily on his staff. 'What an evil fortune! And I am already weary.'
- J.R.R Tolkien, The Fellowship of the Ring
Erik von Nein wrote:Good fucking god. So, the dam was screwed up from the begining (it's dissolving, for fuck's sake) and, upon hearing a proposal to build a secondary dam (even if it is in case of an emergency) gets rejected by the Iraqi government? The Hell?
This is rather typical of developing governments. Maoist China had a progressive collapse of sixty-two dams on the Yellow River system in the 1970s during a Typhoon, which killed almost 100,000 people and rendered 11 million homeless. It was covered up to the west, of course, though at least the Chinese had the decency to rehabilitate the hydrologist who had been sent to a labour camp for saying the project would fail when it was being built in the early 1960s, as a "right-wing opportunist."
The threshold for inclusion in Wikipedia is verifiability, not truth. -- Wikipedia's No Original Research policy page.
Well the logical short term solution would be to reduce the level of water in the reservoir, but I doubt that will happen, since it would take forever to refill it thanks to all the dams upstream. This would reduces stress on the dam and reduce the severity of any flooding, but it could also cause power shortages.
The Badush dam seems to have had a pretty substantial amount of work done based on its appearance in Google earth, but it would probably still take several years to complete it in any form. Hopefully if the main dam has already stood for 23 years it can survive a couple more.
"This cult of special forces is as sensible as to form a Royal Corps of Tree Climbers and say that no soldier who does not wear its green hat with a bunch of oak leaves stuck in it should be expected to climb a tree"
— Field Marshal William Slim 1956
Yes but it has stood because they've essentially poured 2000 tonnes of glue into the structure every year. There is only so much you can do with that.
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-Kingdom of Heaven
Erik von Nein wrote:Good fucking god. So, the dam was screwed up from the begining (it's dissolving, for fuck's sake) and, upon hearing a proposal to build a secondary dam (even if it is in case of an emergency) gets rejected by the Iraqi government? The Hell?
Because it's too expensive you see. I have news for you: you can put a price on a human life.
MSNBC wrote:Salar Bakir Sami, director general of planning and development at the Water Resources Ministry, said Iraqi government officials do not think it is necessary to spend the estimated $10 billion for such a project.
Obviously 500,000 Iraqi's aren't worth $10b; Joe-hammad Sixpack < $20,000. Less than what Bob Barker would've called "A NEW CAR!"
What about completing the Badush dam for irrigation and electricity as the government wants, and then draining the Mosul resevoir and demolishing the existing structure and relocating the dam somewhat up-river to a geologically safe site? We are putting more than enough money into the country to pay for that.
The threshold for inclusion in Wikipedia is verifiability, not truth. -- Wikipedia's No Original Research policy page.
Jadeite wrote:It wouldn't surprise me if it gets bombed by insurgents now.
Because killing 500k Iraqis helps their cause, of course...
When ballots have fairly and constitutionally decided, there can be no successful appeal back to bullets.
—Abraham Lincoln
People pray so that God won't crush them like bugs.
—Dr. Gregory House
Oil an emergency?! It's about time, Brigadier, that the leaders of this planet of yours realised that to remain dependent upon a mineral slime simply doesn't make sense.
—The Doctor "Terror Of The Zygons" (1975)
Jadeite wrote:It wouldn't surprise me if it gets bombed by insurgents now.
Because killing 500k Iraqis helps their cause, of course...
That depends on who the insurgents are, the ethnical make-up of the drowned Iraqis, and whether the insurgents believe that the deaths will blamed on the US occupation forces or the Iraqi government. In other words, it could help their cause, though it is definitely highly unlikely.
Foreign Jihadists, rather than Iraqi insurgents, are a problem, shower. The Iraqi people hate their guts, so I wouldn't be surprised if some of them decide to return the favour in the name of sowing chaos and undermining the American occupation.
Jadeite wrote:It wouldn't surprise me if it gets bombed by insurgents now.
Because killing 500k Iraqis helps their cause, of course...
Ahem:
"Allah will protect the righteous!"
Riiiiight... because we all know that the insurgents haven't an ounce of political saavy to them.
When ballots have fairly and constitutionally decided, there can be no successful appeal back to bullets.
—Abraham Lincoln
People pray so that God won't crush them like bugs.
—Dr. Gregory House
Oil an emergency?! It's about time, Brigadier, that the leaders of this planet of yours realised that to remain dependent upon a mineral slime simply doesn't make sense.
—The Doctor "Terror Of The Zygons" (1975)
A terrorist bomb, or hell even a large aircraft bomb is a very minimal threat to a large earthen dam. The British Upkeep bouncing bomb was a 9,200lb weapon with 6,600lb of Torpex explosive (a small handful of terrorist bombs have had this kind of size) and yet it could not breach the earthen Sorpe Dam. The Sorpe Dam in turn is much smaller then the Mosul dam.
Earth doesn’t transmit shock like concrete and easily repels air blast; unless terrorist manage to dig a hole in the thing, shove in ten thousand pounds of high explosives, fill and tamp the hole and only then explode the charge we don’t need to worry about much. Somehow I think the Kurds are smart enough not to let that happen to such a blindingly obious target, even if terrorist didn’t want to unleash a flood the turbines are clear targets.
"This cult of special forces is as sensible as to form a Royal Corps of Tree Climbers and say that no soldier who does not wear its green hat with a bunch of oak leaves stuck in it should be expected to climb a tree"
— Field Marshal William Slim 1956
Jadeite wrote:It wouldn't surprise me if it gets bombed by insurgents now.
Because killing 500k Iraqis helps their cause, of course...
That depends on who the insurgents are, the ethnical make-up of the drowned Iraqis, and whether the insurgents believe that the deaths will blamed on the US occupation forces or the Iraqi government. In other words, it could help their cause, though it is definitely highly unlikely.
Foreign Jihadists, rather than Iraqi insurgents, are a problem, shower. The Iraqi people hate their guts, so I wouldn't be surprised if some of them decide to return the favour in the name of sowing chaos and undermining the American occupation.
I rather doubt that. For a start, the dam's been known to have been crumbling almost from the day it was opened, so there's already a pre-existing expectation that the thing might collapse anyway. Seconly, it will be impossible to create a dam collapse which kills only one ethnic group and spares the other —with an expected 500K casualties, both Sunni and Shia populations would suffer grieviously. Thirdly, given that the dam has contractors and soldiers surrounding it, an insurgent attack would be pretty obvious and the list of suspects a very narrow one.
The better bet for al-Qaeda would be to exploit the coming Mosul tragedy by spreading propaganda after the event that the Americans and the Iraqi "government" simply let the thing collapse.
When ballots have fairly and constitutionally decided, there can be no successful appeal back to bullets.
—Abraham Lincoln
People pray so that God won't crush them like bugs.
—Dr. Gregory House
Oil an emergency?! It's about time, Brigadier, that the leaders of this planet of yours realised that to remain dependent upon a mineral slime simply doesn't make sense.
—The Doctor "Terror Of The Zygons" (1975)
If the dam did collapse, how many more people would die afterwards from the aftereffects of not having all that water around? Anyone know what goes on because of the dam (electricity, irrigation, water, flood prevention, etc.)?
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The aftermath of the dam collapse could either be a catalyst for cooperation, or a free for all. The former would be preferred, but the latter could simply be the end of what is called Iraq.
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Patrick Degan wrote:
Because killing 500k Iraqis helps their cause, of course...
Ahem:
"Allah will protect the righteous!"
Riiiiight... because we all know that the insurgents haven't an ounce of political saavy to them.
...remind me. How many Iraqis have been killed by non-American forces at this point? And if the dam is literally dissolving, it wouldn't take a major outfit to bring it crashing down - just a couple of lone psychopaths with some explosives on their hands.
Jadeite wrote:It wouldn't surprise me if it gets bombed by insurgents now.
Because killing 500k Iraqis helps their cause, of course...
Doesn't seem to have prevented them from blowing themselves up in marketplaces and near mosques and what not, has it?
Wow. You're really fucking stupid.
Are you capable of processing two distinct factions, which can be selectively targetted by such a target as a Mosque? Are you capable of processing that a dam is not so discriminating?
Or are you another Right-Wing Retard who goes beyond simply being incapable of thought to being opposed to thinking?
Manic Progressive: A liberal who violently swings from anger at politicos to despondency over them.
Out Of Context theatre: Ron Paul has repeatedly said he's not a racist. - Destructinator XIII on why Ron Paul isn't racist.
SirNitram wrote:
Are you capable of processing two distinct factions, which can be selectively targetted by such a target as a Mosque? Are you capable of processing that a dam is not so discriminating?
Are you capable of processing the idea that maybe people won't make the distinction in either case because they'll happily kill what, a dozen civilians for 2-3 actual soldiers?
Patrick Degan wrote:
Because killing 500k Iraqis helps their cause, of course...
Doesn't seem to have prevented them from blowing themselves up in marketplaces and near mosques and what not, has it?
Wow. You're really fucking stupid.
Are you capable of processing two distinct factions, which can be selectively targetted by such a target as a Mosque? Are you capable of processing that a dam is not so discriminating?
Or are you another Right-Wing Retard who goes beyond simply being incapable of thought to being opposed to thinking?[/quote
All it takes is one pious idiot who really believes that righteous people will be miraculously plucked into Heaven before the water hits, and has access to some explosives.
SirNitram wrote:
Are you capable of processing two distinct factions, which can be selectively targetted by such a target as a Mosque? Are you capable of processing that a dam is not so discriminating?
Are you capable of processing the idea that maybe people won't make the distinction in either case because they'll happily kill what, a dozen civilians for 2-3 actual soldiers?
Oh look, the stupid little fucktard is trying to spin things around and shove the burden of proof on me when he's the one making the claims. Look, kiddie, I don't know how things work in your fact-free idiot preserve, but around here, you are expected to back up claims about people flooding multiple towns and potentially Baghdad with more than just 'Du-UH! I stoopid, dey blew up de MOSKS!'.
Manic Progressive: A liberal who violently swings from anger at politicos to despondency over them.
Out Of Context theatre: Ron Paul has repeatedly said he's not a racist. - Destructinator XIII on why Ron Paul isn't racist.
Ryan Thunder wrote:
Doesn't seem to have prevented them from blowing themselves up in marketplaces and near mosques and what not, has it?
Wow. You're really fucking stupid.
Are you capable of processing two distinct factions, which can be selectively targetted by such a target as a Mosque? Are you capable of processing that a dam is not so discriminating?
Or are you another Right-Wing Retard who goes beyond simply being incapable of thought to being opposed to thinking?
All it takes is one pious idiot who really believes that righteous people will be miraculously plucked into Heaven before the water hits, and has access to some explosives.
Actually, it takes a shitload of explosives and knowledge of how to actually blow up a dam. As has been discussed in this thread. But hey, continue to show you're an idiot. It's amusing as all hellfire.
Manic Progressive: A liberal who violently swings from anger at politicos to despondency over them.
Out Of Context theatre: Ron Paul has repeatedly said he's not a racist. - Destructinator XIII on why Ron Paul isn't racist.
