Mosul dam may be in danger of collapsing in the future...

Patrick Degan · Post by **Patrick Degan** » 2007-10-31 03:00pm

Molyneux wrote:
Patrick Degan wrote:
Molyneux wrote: Ahem:

"Allah will protect the righteous!"
Riiiiight... because we all know that the insurgents haven't an ounce of political saavy to them.
...remind me. How many Iraqis have been killed by non-American forces at this point? And if the dam is literally dissolving, it wouldn't take a major outfit to bring it crashing down - just a couple of lone psychopaths with some explosives on their hands.

And, as has been pointed out to you, more explosive than they have and a lot of engineering knowledge which they definitely don't have.

Medic · Post by **Medic** » 2007-10-31 04:24pm

A dam is also easily enough guarded. Insurgent's penchant for using IED's doesn't translate to sabotaging a point target especially outside of the urban cluster. IED's are RANDOMLY placed and only thusly present the problem they do, there isn't enough guns in country to keep an eye on all the roads.

That and seriously 1) if the administration's to be believed, then AQ is on the ropes finally and as Degan points out 2) in what crazy scenario is blowing up that damn in ANYONE ELSE's interest? Only the random slashers concievably might but according to Bush we've beaten down AQ in Iraq.

Adrian Laguna · Post by **Adrian Laguna** » 2007-10-31 04:35pm

Patrick Degan wrote:I rather doubt that.

As I pointed out, it's a highly unlikely scenario. If say, 80% of the people downriver just so happen to be Sunni, it might look attractive to Shia insurgents. I strongly suspect they aren't given one of the areas listed as being in danger of severe flooding is Bagdad, which is quite diverse. I was just pointing out the possible scenario where insurgents might want to blow it up, a scenario that I don't really believe to exist.

Post by **Sea Skimmer** » 2007-10-31 05:04pm

Patrick Degan wrote: And, as has been pointed out to you, more explosive than they have and a lot of engineering knowledge which they definitely don't have.

You’d be mistaken to think they couldn’t possibly get an engineer involved to tell them the optimal place for a demolition charge; they already have electrical engineers building triggering devices for IEDs. But of course, knowing what you need to do and doing it are whole different worlds.

Raptor 597 · Post by **Raptor 597** » 2007-10-31 07:12pm

Patrick Degan wrote:
Molyneux wrote:
Patrick Degan wrote: Riiiiight... because we all know that the insurgents haven't an ounce of political saavy to them.
...remind me. How many Iraqis have been killed by non-American forces at this point? And if the dam is literally dissolving, it wouldn't take a major outfit to bring it crashing down - just a couple of lone psychopaths with some explosives on their hands.
And, as has been pointed out to you, more explosive than they have and a lot of engineering knowledge which they definitely don't have.

The terrorist group Ansar al-Islam may have know how and ability to launch an attack on the dam. They have conducted some of the most lethal and complicated attacks in Iraq. They were responsible for the killing of 14 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne earlier this year when they sent multiple VBIEDs into a FOB. However, this dam is heavily guarded and I doubt that any attack would succeed.

CJvR · Post by **CJvR** » 2007-11-01 04:27am

Patrick Degan wrote:Because killing 500k Iraqis helps their cause, of course...

Well since the US would be blamed anyway... However keeping the damn dam intact should be something at least the domestic gangs should be able to agree on. Mosul have considerable Kurd and Sunni populations and Bagdad have Sunni and Shia so sanity will likely prevail.

Mayabird · Post by **Mayabird** » 2007-11-01 02:01pm

If the dam is going to collapse anyway, and if someone really wanted it destroyed, couldn't these hypothetical people simply prevent any serious maintenance or repair from occurring until the thing finally gave way?

Post by **Sea Skimmer** » 2007-11-01 03:54pm

Mayabird wrote:If the dam is going to collapse anyway, and if someone really wanted it destroyed, couldn't these hypothetical people simply prevent any serious maintenance or repair from occurring until the thing finally gave way?

I doubt any group in Iraq except the local Kurdish administration would have enough resources and firepower to do that, and they happen to be the ones with the most reason to defend the place! Plus fixating on a single remote defended target just runs counter to an effective guerilla strategy. You make yourself predictable, removing the element of surprise and letting superior enemy forces concentrate against you.