We're about a month out in Iowa. Hillary is up by double digits in most other primary states at this point.The top three Democratic contenders remain locked in a close battle in Iowa, with Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) seeing her advantages diminish on key fronts, including the questions of experience and which candidate is best prepared to handle the war in Iraq, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
Illinois Senator Barack Obama gets the support of 30 percent of likely Democratic caucus-goers in Iowa, compared to 26 percent for Clinton, 22 percent for former senator John Edwards and 11 percent for New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson. The results are only marginally changed from a Post-ABC poll in late July, but in a state likely to set the course for the rest of the nominating process, there are significant signs of progress for Obama -- and harbingers of concern for Clinton.
The factors that have made Clinton the clear national front-runner -- including her overwhelming leads on the issues of Iraq and health care, a widespread sense that she is the Democrats' most electable candidate, and her strong support among women -- do not appear to be translating on the ground in Iowa, where campaigning is already fierce and television ads have been running for months.
Obama is running even with Clinton among women in Iowa, drawing 32 percent to her 31 percent, despite the fact that the Clinton campaign has built its effort around attracting female voters.
At the heart of the Democratic race has been the dichotomy between strength and experience (qualities emphasized by Clinton, Richardson and Sens. Joe Biden and Chris Dodd) and the ability to introduce a new approach to governing (as Obama and Edwards have promised to do).
Iowa Democrats are tilting toward change: 55 percent reported that a "new direction and new ideas" are their top priority, compared with 33 percent who favored "strength and experience." That is a shift from July, when 49 percent sought change and 39 percent experience.
Nationally, Clinton is viewed as a candidate of change, winning 41 percent of Democrats who say they are seeking a new direction in a recent Post-ABC poll. But in Iowa, Obama dominates the so-called "change" vote, winning 43 percent of those voters, compared with 25 percent for Edwards and 17 percent for Clinton.
Still, Clinton retains a comfortable lead among Iowa voters who consider strength and experience more important, with 38 percent compared with 19 percent for Edwards, 18 percent for Richardson and 12 percent for Obama, according to the new survey.
Obama has made key gains. His support is up 8 percentage points since July among voters aged 45 and older -- who comprised two-thirds of Iowa caucus-goers in 2004.
And despite widespread impressions that Obama is banking on unreliable first-time voters, Clinton depends on them heavily as well: About half of her supporters say they have never attended a caucus before, compared with 43 percent of first-timers for Obama and 24 percent for Edwards. Previous attendance is one of the strongest indicators of who will turn out to vote.
That gap helps explain Clinton's recent push to get voters to show up on caucus night (including a lively "caucusing is easy" video featuring former Pres. Bill Clinton and a juicy hamburger) and also illustrates why Edwards, with his cadre of experienced caucusgoers, remains a formidable threat.
In another positive shift for Obama, the Illinois senator is increasingly not only the first but also the second choice of Iowa voters, an important trend in a state where voters often switch their support at the last minute after sizing up the political landscape.
Among Edwards supporters, 43 percent said they would make Obama their second choice, up from 32 percent who said so in July.
There was also some movement among Obama supporters: in the new poll, 32 percent said they would choose Clinton second, down from 45 percent four months ago.
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According to Democratic Party rules, a candidate must draw at least 15 percent at each caucus site for the votes to count; if that fails to happen, their supporters often throw their votes to a more viable contender. Combining the second-choice picks of candidates outside the top three, 34 percent would select Obama, 28 percent Edwards and only 15 percent Clinton.
Most supporters of each of the top three said they will "definitely" support their chosen candidate on Jan. 3 of next year. Few, only about two in 10, said there is a "good chance" they will change their minds. That level of certainty suggests the race will continue to be close in the weeks ahead.
Voters in Iowa continue to view Clinton as the most viable of the Democrats, although her advantage is significanltly smaller than it is nationally. About four in 10 Iowa voters called her the Democrats' best hope for November 2008, a quarter said it is Obama, 22 percent Edwards. In the latest Post-ABC national poll, 62 percent said she is the party's strongest general election candidate.
The results of the survey, conducted Nov. 14 to 18, underscore the urgency and fluidity of the contest as it heads into its final seven-week stretch. It was conducted by telephone among a random sample of 500 Iowa adults likely to vote in the 2008 Democratic presidential caucus; the results have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points.
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Iraq and health care dominate as the campaign's top issues. A third of likely voters call the Iraq war the single biggest issue in their choice for the nominee, 26 percent said it is health care. Ten percent highlight the economy and jobs, and all other issues are in the single digits.
The race at the local level only somewhat resembles the national campaign. While Clinton held a 51-point lead on the question of which Democrat would best handle the issue of health care in a national Post-ABC poll in late September, she now has a narrow 9-point on that same question in Iowa.
And Clinton does not have a meaningful edge on the five other issues tested in this poll. Obama rivals her, with 26 percent to 23 percent, on who would best handle Iran. He matches her on who would best handle the economy and Social Security. On Iraq -- on which Clinton prevailed with a 12-point lead in a similar survey in July -- Obama is now even, preferred by 26 percent of those surveyed compared to 23 percent for Clinton and 15 percent each for Edwards and Richardson.
Richardson, the only Hispanic candidate in the race, registered in fourth place on a number of questions. But on the explosive matter of immigration, 25 percent said they trust him the most. During the Democratic debate in Las Vegas last Thursday night, Richardson gave a clear answer to the question of whether he would give drivers licenses to illegal immigrants, saying that as governor, he already had. The same question has flummoxed both Clinton and Obama at various points.
On the issue of experience, 38 percent call Clinton the most well-suited for the White House, significantly more than said so about other candidates. However, Clinton's number on that question has slipped from 50 percent in late July. On that question she dropped 17 percentage points among men, and 8 points among women. Over the same time period, Obama picked up points among women for understanding the problems of people like them, drawing 33 percent, up from 25 percent in July. Clinton remained steady on that question, with about a quarter saying she is best on this.
Regardless of whom they support, voters reported being deeply involved in -- or at least bombarded by -- the campaign well ahead of the final stretch. More than half said they had already attended a campaign event. More than four in 10 had been to a candidate's Web site; two in 10 had donated money. One in three said they had personally spoken to or shaken hands with one of the Democratic candidates. Eight in 10 report receiving calls from one or more of the campaigns, 38 percent have been e-mailed. And an overwhelming nine out of 10 people who attended a previous caucus said they had already been called by one of the campaigns.
Polling analyst Jennifer Agiesta contributed to this report.
Apologies for any random shit appearing it the article; the WaPo's articles are cluttered up with adds and promos, and this is a long article.
). If he buries everyone else it might be worth taking note of but it could also be written off as a fluke.
I like public support for realistic and radical energy policy, including nuclear, and between a green freak and a libertarian, you'd never get that.
