Election 07: Australia flips a coin

[mr friendly guy]

Voted.

As always I start off with who I hate the worse and put them last. So from the end I put

7. One nation - racist shit heads, inbred red necks and conspiracy theorists. Need I say more.

6. Family First - where family = anti-homosexual bigotry. Note the pro family party apparently preferred to preference a party which supported porn and incest over the environemntalist Green party.

Not that I have a problem with adult porn, but it seemed kind of funny given their "family values" pitch. As for the incest, come on, this happened in the Bible all the time, so why should we be surprised given the party's Christian roots.

5. Christian democrats - more homophobic shitheads, and like family first apparently haven't heard of the word "secular". I mean, whats that mean? It was really a toss up between them and family first. I wonder if they realise the irony of having "Christian" and "democrat" in the same line, since I don't recall God winning an election to be voted king of the hill.

4. Liberal - fuck Howard and his bullshit asylum seeker denigration, slapping his wrist of racist ministers, OMG the Muslim terrrorists shit, "keeping interest rates low" crap, imaginary WMDs in Iraq, giving George Bush a blowjob and his tough line on refugees which resulted in us wasting money paying another country to build facilities to house them while we eventually decided most were really refugees and could settle here anyway.

The list gets longer, but suffice to say its tempting to vote for Harold Saxon instead of this wanker.

3. Some independent I never heard of.

2. Greens

1. ALP - Not that they will win in this strong Liberal seat anyway.

And in the upper house

as always, I voted for a minor party to try and keep the bastards honest. Hint I didn't vote for the democrats since they can't do the job anymore since they self destructed with infighting a few years back.

[Flagg]

Looks like Howard's gonna be out on his ass and Labor will be in charge.

Exit poll says Labor to win, PM to lose seat
November 24, 2007 04:45pm

A MAJOR exit poll of voters in today's federal election predict Kevin Rudd will be the next prime minister of Australia and that John Howard will lose his seat of Bennelong.

The Sky News exit poll taken in 31 key seats predicts a two-party preferred result of 53 per cent to Labor to 47 per cen to the Coalition.

The poll predicts Mr Howard's seat of Bennelong will fall to Labor, with celebrity candidate Maxine McKew tipped to get 53 per cent of the two-party preferred vote.

Voters in the bellwether seat of Eden-Monaro in NSW, which has changed hands with each change of government since 1974, indicated an even greater swing to Labor, with 58 per cent of people preferring it over the Coalition on 42 per cent.

Actual voting trends in the election 2007 are expected to become clear within 30 minutes of the 6pm close of polling in Australia's eastern states tonight.

If the result is close it may be several hours before it is known if Labor has captured the 16 extra seats it needs to win government.

The Sky News exit poll found health and hospitals, the economy, industrial relations laws and the environment were the top issues for voters.

A NEWS.com.au exit poll currently on the website has indicated a similar result to a major poll published in The Weekend Australian today.

In the NEWS.com.au poll 45 per cent of participants said they had voted for the Liberals or the Nationals, while 43 per cent had given Labor their vote. Just 6 per cent of participants voted for the Greens and 1 per cent for the Nationals. More than 8000 votes have been cast by 4.30pm.

With polling stations in some parts of Australia to be open for several more hours, the results of exit polling may yet change considerably.

The Newspoll published this morning found Coalition at 43 per cent and Labor on 44 per cent.

Labor needs a uniform swing of about 5 per cent to win an outright majority in the lower house of parliament.

Votes from NSW, Victoria and Tasmania, will be the first to be counted after the close of polls, with the other states, in different time zones, set to follow. Western Australia is two hours behind, and Queensland one hour.

Prime Minister John Howard and Labor leader Kevin Rudd today continued their bid to snatch-up any last minute votes through to the close of polls.

The two leaders cast their votes early this morning before targeting un-decided voters at polling booths in their electorates.

Mr Howard was handed a how-to vote card by his daughter Melanie and grandson Angus shortly after he arrived at a polling booth in his Sydney seat of Bennelong this morning.

"I think you need to vote for this guy," Ms Howard-McDonald said pointing to a picture of her father.
"Is he alright?'' Mr Howard joked.

In Brisbane, Labor leader Kevin Rudd was joined by his wife Therese Rein and their children, when they arrived at their local parish, St John the Baptist Anglican Church in Bulimba, to vote.

Rudd maintained his view that the race for government would be very tight.

"It's a tight and tough race ... I've been saying that all year. Nothing's changed,'' Mr Rudd said.

The Newspoll published today showed the Coalition and Labor essentially equal on primary votes.

The poll, taken from Tuesday to Thursday and published in The Weekend Australian today has the Coalition at 43 per cent with Labor at 44 per cent.

On a two-party-preferred basis, Labor has 52 per cent of the vote compared to the coalition on 48 per cent.

The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) estimates around 13.6 million voters will have cast their votes by the close of polls.

With AAP

Wow, not only does it look like Rudd will be the new PM, but it also looks like Howard lost his seat. Assuming these exit polls are accurate, anyway.

[Stark]

Howard losing his seat was always more likely than the Liberals losing. After the last three elections, I'm not going to waste my time speculating over who wins until tomorrow when the result is finalised.

Frankly Labor winning is probably the second worst outcome possible.

[weemadando]

Looks like the swing may have been bigger than the polls predicted. For anyone interested, the ABC.net.au webcast is really good.

Anthony Green is the king of nerds.

Though it looks like the marginal Tassie seats might stay Liberal.

And the Democrats may be making a good showing in the senate.

To top it all off, the ACT may put the Greens in the House of Reps.

[mr friendly guy]

ABC is cautiously calling it a ALP victory and thats without my state of WA being counted. But like we matter anyway.

Its still early days, but like Ando says, that ABC guy is good. Update later on.

[weemadando]

12% swing against Mal Brough. I fucking hate that man.

And from the ABC Website, detailing just why Anthony Green is awesome:

Profile: Antony Green
Antony Green is the ABCs election analyst

Antony Green is the ABC's election analyst. His expert views on the nation's 150 electorates will be heard throughout the election campaign on ABC radio and television news and current affairs programs and on election night on Australia Votes 2004.

Antony has worked on ABC election coverages for 15 years. He has worked on every federal, state and territory election since his first election with the ABC in Queensland in 1989. He has appeared regularly on camera since the 1993 Federal election, when he was the first to call the return of the Keating government. In all Antony has covered 35 election nights with the ABC, the most recent being the election in Queensland on February 7. The 2004 federal election will be the sixth he has covered.

Antony has a Bachelor of Science in mathematics and computing, and a Bachelor of Economics with honours in politics. Before joining the ABC he worked as a data analyst in the computing industry, and for a polling company. Antony designed the ABC's current election night computer system, which has set new benchmarks in the speed and accuracy of result calls.

Antony also produces publications on electoral matters for the New South Wales Parliamentary Library, and has also produced publications on electoral matters for other state Parliaments.

[mr friendly guy]

Looks like the Libs have lost the seat of Lindsay. For those who don't know it was the electorate where members of the Liberal party resorted to blatant dirty tricks which embarrassed the PM.

Essentially they descributed phony Islamic flyers from a made up islamic group with extremist views asking Muslims to vote Labor. The blatant racist fear mongering seems to back fired.

Suck it down arseholes.

[weemadando]

To quote the Twelfth Man:

Got him yes! Piss off you're out!

Howard is gone.

ALP up by 20 seats. ABC has called it.

[weemadando]

Damnit! The Senate looks like a total mess.

Lyn Allison appears to have lost her seat so the Democrats are all but gone.

Greens have already picked up 2 in the new allocation. But it looks like its might be a Labor majority in the Senate too.

And that's something I don't like - any party to have control of the Senate.

[Vympel]

Wow. Howard loses his own seat. What pwnage.

[mr friendly guy]

He hasn't lost it yet, as its still on a knife edge.

However I am hoping he loses it. Then two things on my election wish list would have happened?

[weemadando]

He hasn't lost it yet, as its still on a knife edge.

However I am hoping he loses it. Then two things on my election wish list would have happened?

I was mainly referring to the massive gains by Labor - Bennelong is still way too close to call. In fact, its looking like it might even go to a by-election according to the latest commentary.

Senate results keep on changing as preferences are distributed - Greens go up, Greens go down.

On the bright side, no Family First or other racist, fundie or other gains.

[mr friendly guy]

Now all that we need now is Barack Obama to make a snide comment about Howard.

For those who don't remember Howard did a big no no and commented on the domestic politics of another nation which is allied to us. Namely that it would be a disaster in Iraq if Obama became president of the US (like its going so well right now ).

[Gandalf]

It might just be that Howard's been in power for about half of my life, but I'm going to miss him.

Now if Costello could put on some weight, he could be the next Kim Beazley.

[mr friendly guy]

Howard has conceded. Good riddance to bad rubbish.

Now his supporters can suck it down.

[Ubiquitous]

Australia is the country where the political parties try and confuse everyone by calling themselves the opposite to what they actually are, right? Labor are Conservatives? [or am I thinking of the wrong country here?]

Either way, I seem to remember the BBC saying that Labor want to keep the Queen as head of state. If that is the case, I hope they win.

[mr friendly guy]

Er no. Liberals are the conservatives. Labor (notice the Americanised spelling), are a mixture of left and right (various factions), although generally in terms of social issues they are more left leaning than Howard.

Traditionally Labor support the working "battler" while the Liberals big business and the bigger end of town. And yes that is just a gross generalisation to give non Aussies the idea.

And it was the Liberals under fucking Howard who wanted to keep the Queen as the head of state. Previous Labor leaders wanted it changed. Kevin Rudd IIRC plans to hold a referendum on it at the next election (so he is most probably not tipping his hand). I suspect next time the republic question is asked, he won't get Howards bullshit rigging of the questionaire and then its bye bye Monarchy.

and here comes the concession

Defeated Howard thanks Australia

Posted 12 minutes ago

Prime Minister John Howard has formally conceded defeat to Kevin Rudd in the federal election and paid tribute to the Australian people.

Addressing a gathering of Liberal party supporters at Sydney's Wentworth Hotel, Mr Howard admitted it was "very likely" that he could lose his own seat of Bennelong to Labor challenger Maxine McKew.

But he said it had been an immense privilege to have been the prime minister, and thanked the Australian people.

"My fellow Australians, I telephoned Mr Kevin Rudd and I congratulated him and the Australian Labor Party on a very emphatic victory," he said.

"This is a great democracy and I want to wish Mr Rudd well.

"There is no prouder job in the world that anyone can occupy than being prime minister of this country."

Mr Howard acknowledged that the speech was being delivered "at the end of my political career".

"I take full responsibility for this campaign and I therefore accept full reponsibility for the defeat in this election," he added.

[loomer]

Allow me to say this. Woot.

[Archaic`]

*sigh* I might dislike both Howard and Costello as individuals (and I'm hoping that Turnbull's massive showing will allow him to steal the leadership of the Liberals in opposition), but they were both very effective leaders of our economy. I honestly worry about the future of Australia under Rudd, both in terms of our economy with the unions taking the reins; and in terms of the freedom of our society, with Rudd and many of his people being Christian fundamentalists, strongly opposed to homosexual marriage and to abortions, amongst other things.

[mr friendly guy]

Er, you realise Howard actively opposed gay marriages right, with his bullshit appeal to tradition line. Howard was also the one who legislated to stop homosexuals adopting kids.

Rudd while he doesn't believe in it, AFAIK preferred the states to decide. I am willing to bet over here the WA Labor government would legalise it as they have already increased gay rights here despite the whining from Christian fuckwits.

Rudd also voted to allow the use of the abortion drug RU-486 while the other Christian bloke Tony Abbott tried to block it. Sorry, but fundamentalist isn't the right word to describe Rudd.

To reiterate Loomer's point, woot.

No more Tampa.
No more children overboard.
No more OMG terrorists are coming over in leaking refugee boats.
No more WMDs in Iraq lies.
No more interest rate scares.
No more cuddling up to One Nation.
No more defending people who cover up child sex abuse in the Anglican church just because you like the guy
No more rigging of the Republic question
No more persecuting foreign doctors on trumped up charges.

The list goes on and the payment has come due. Now cop it sweet Howard.

Now all I need is someone to photoshop a picture of asylum seekers throwing Howard overboard, with a picture of someone saying I don't want these people governing the country.

[hongi]

End of an era...now we can start whinging about Rudd's reign.

[Stark]

If I thought any of that swayed voters I'd have faith in democracy. Frankly, while I think Howard's self-appropriation of the economic boom is almost as stupid as people who believe it, people voted for Rudd because of scaremongering, just like they used to vote Howard because of scaremongering. I was in line to vote today and I doubt most of those people even remember the bullshit Howard has used to stay in power.

Except me, and I had to vote for Rudd because he cooked sausages.

Archaic, if you think Rudd is more fundamentalist than the Liberals, that's quite the tinfoil hat you've got there. I have to say it would have been fun to see Howard in power when inflation caught up with the economy: then people could shut the fuck up about the Howard Magic and how he gives the Australian economy +15% profit by being in charge.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

End of an era...now we can start whinging about Rudd's reign.

And I wonder if the SEA nations will start whining about loosing the regional sheriff.

[mr friendly guy]

ABC once against does excellent analysis

Looking at it

a) the ALP maintains its total dominance of the ACT

b)Tasmania has become an ALP white wash

c) the Northern Territory could either break even or become totally ALP dominanted (granted they only have 2 seats)

d) South Australia (my old state) has changed from Liberal dominanted to giving the ALP slight ascendency

e) Western Australia (my current state) has bucked the trend with the Liberals gaining ground here, leaving it a Liberal stronghold. Not surprising given those wanker union officials are prominent here, and the fact I notice a lot of people here are right wing. Granted it may be skewed and just seem that because the local newspaper is right wing.

f) Queensland, Rudd's home state appears to be where the damage has been done. The ALP went up from a small percentage of seats to something like 60%. Its not as bad a white wash as some of the other states, but Qld has lots of seats.

g) Victoria had some small change. The ALP only won a few seats, giving them a bit more than half.

h) New South Wales - has the most number of seats. The ALP looks to have done better here than victoria, winning a few seats.

In short, in the 3 bigger states (which ultimately decided the contest) NSW, Victoria, and Qld, the ALP made small to moderate gains in Vic, and NSW, but wiped the floor with the coalition in Queensland.

[Archaic`]

Archaic, if you think Rudd is more fundamentalist than the Liberals, that's quite the tinfoil hat you've got there. I have to say it would have been fun to see Howard in power when inflation caught up with the economy: then people could shut the fuck up about the Howard Magic and how he gives the Australian economy +15% profit by being in charge.

Let's put it this way. I think a Rudd government is more likely to act on those sort of policies than a potential liberal government would have. Howard wouldn't have had the time to really contribute to new policy based on his own position before he retired to the backbench, and I would've expected an ascendant Turnbull in a Costello government to act as a counter-balance to the wacko's like Abbot. I don't really see any potential counter-balancing figures in Labor to their own group of wackos.

As to the economy...I find it incomprehensible that people can't seem to get that a promise to keep interest rates low doesn't mean that there wouldn't be occasional interest rate rises. I expect we'll be getting a lot more of them down the track over the next couple of years, as Labor spending and industrial relations policy sends inflation spiralling upwards.

What annoys me most about this election is that it's been turned into a referendum on who people would prefer as a Prime Minister. People have voted for the person they thought was most likeable, personable and photogenic, or voted Rudd just based on the idea that they wanted a change from Howard, or voted Rudd because they seem to think Labor politicians aren't going to lie to them just as much as the ones we already had did. Far too few people seem to have made any judgement of which party to vote for based on any actual position (regardless of how well or poorly thought out that position may have been) as to the policies put forward by each party.