IEA: Oil Demand has Surpassed Supply

[J]

Houston, we have a problem...

IEA: oil demand has surpassed supply

Posted by Rembrandt on December 6, 2007 - 10:00am in The Oil Drum: Europe
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: crisis, demand, iea, supply (list all tags)



The energy watchdog of the OECD countries, the International Energy Agency (IEA), recently started to talk about looming oil shortages. The high oil price of today will remain is the message they are spreading. We need to save more oil, invest more in increasing oil production and upscale alternatives. However, the IEA does not see a peak in worldwide oil production occurring in the coming decades. Based on the expectation that large amounts of oil will be discovered, not yet on the radar of oil companies worldwide. This new stance follows below from the translated transcript of an interview recently broadcasted on the Dutch television channel RTL-Z with Aad van Bohemen, the Director of Crisis Management at the IEA

What is the significance of the current crisis on the oil market?

“The situation on the oil market is worrisome in the sense of there being more demand than supply. This does not mean that we should panic because of an acute shortage of oil, there is sufficient oil in the world. There is production capacity that can be brought to the market by the oil producing countries. But this capacity should be brought to the market to meet supply. So the situation is on overall worrisome, but it is not yet time to panic.”

But if there is more demand then supply then stocks will decrease, how long can the west maintain this situation?

“This is indeed already happening for almost a year. A year ago OPEC decided to decrease their production. They are able to increase production again since the capacity is still there. Because of this decline, however, demand has surpassed supply and the western countries are consuming their own oil stocks to fill the gap. In the last quarter this event was reflected in higher oil prices. It can be solved by increasing production, but then the oil producing countries have to decide that they want to increase production.”

Can producing countries increase production? One of the questions that some analists have is if OPEC is still able to increase production?

“Certainly on the short term OPEC will be able to increase production, one and a half years ago they were also able to decrease their production. But we also see that the demand will continue its increase in the long term. Not only in the western countries but also in other countries amongst which China and India. To meet this increasing demand we need more then the present spare production capacity, new production capacity needs to be developed for the oil markets. A large number of fields are under development, new fields are being discovered and developed. What we are concerned about is if these fields will be brought to the market in time, if sufficient investment is taking place in new production capacity. Currently we are not sure if this is the case, whether enough new oil fields are being developed to meet demand."

Are you optimistic about the oil market?

“The IEA is not optimistic. We see a gap developing in the future between demand, if nothing is done to curtail demand, and production. So something has to happen, either more investment in production or more investment in substitution for oil or the curtailment of demand. All these three things will probably happen at the same time. Such developments don’t happen on their own, it can very well be that this is going to hurt. Meaning that we are going to enter a period wherein oil prices are quite a bit higher, possibly even higher than today's near all time high price, before we have found new solutions. If your question refers to the optimistic stance that it will all be fine, then I am not optimistic.”

Who is going to feel the largest impact of the problems on the oil market, are these the poor countries?

“It is sad to say but this will be the case, the western countries have become so rich that we are nearly not impacted at all by high oil prices. Only now the oil price is nearing 100 dollars per barrel we are seeing a demand reaction, but this is only a very modest reaction. At the same time the national budget of developing countries is more and more dominated by energy costs. And these countries want to grow and economic growth is always paired with growth in the consumption of energy. So such countries will be hit much harder then we in the west will be.”

When are we going to see in your view that factories will stop production because there no longer is any fuel available?

“Not, this is not going to happen. In this sense I am optimistic. Humanity has always been intelligent enough to find solution when new challenges come forth. Possibly we will have difficulties muddling through, but not in the sense that a crunch is going to occur in which factories will have to stop production.”

You are familiar with the phenomenon of peak oil, what is your view on this?

“The theory of Peakoil says that we have currently used about half of the oil production that is available under ground. That implies that we can no longer produce more than we are currently doing, and that oil production is going to drop sooner than later. At the IEA we do not believe this, we think that we know that we are still not nearly halfway, that there are plenty of reserves underground in areas where little to no oil exploration has taken place. Until now oil companies have only searched in areas where oil was relatively simple to find. Now we are looking for oil at increasingly greater depths in the oceans and more and more at northern locations above Russia. Oil is still being found at the moment, and we can continue to find oil for a long time to come.”

It does seem to become a race against the clock though, which will eventually on the long term be lost.

“On the long term oil will run out, it is a finite resource. So on the long term we need to shift to different energy sources. The question is whether we have sufficient time to switch to energy sources such as sustainable energy, solar energy. For the time being we should maybe also use more nuclear energy. One can call that a running match, a race against the clock. Will we have other sources of energy in time before oil runs out? What we say is that this will not happen as quickly as the peak oil theory which you are talking about predicts. The IEA thinks that we have more time. This does not mean that we do not need to worry, as I just explained, a shortage of oil is looming on the horizon.”

Not so long ago large adverts have been published by a number of large oil companies in all financial newspapers in the world. Didn’t it become clear from these that we have consumed the first half of oil reserves already and that the second half will be consumed in the next 30 years?

“These adverts were published by one oil company, other oil companies have a different take on the situation, they are more optimistic. It is of course about the entire picture. If one looks at western oil companies, their supplies are decreasing. These companies are not always allowed to areas where there still is a lot of oil, the Middle-East and Russia, to look for new reserves. So specifically for that oil company, or specifically for the Western countries we are already more or less at the plateau of maximum production. All that we need in additional supplies needs to come from either the Middle East or Russia.”

Isn’t it dangerous for the IEA to anticipate on oil discoveries that have not yet been made?

“This is an experience that has been built up as time passed from which we have learnt that when new areas are being explored more oil will be found. So far this has been proven to be the case. In the eighties we have started to search for oil in the North Sea, there we found oil at locations of one hundred to two hundred meters deep. At the time that was called non-conventional oil. Nowadays it is very normal to search for oil at such depths, even a depth of one thousand meters is considered as normal. Oil companies are now searching for oil at a depth of three thousand to four thousand meters on the bottom of the ocean, and even there large oil fields are being found. So a lot of locations have not yet been explored, and at these oil can still be found."

But, isn’t it true that in any case whether we find new oil fields at a depth of 3000 to 4000 meters or not, that a shortage will occur and that prices on overall will rise?

“Yes this will inevitably happen. Not only because of a shortage but also because it is simply to expensive to find oil at such depths. So an oil company will only do so if it is rewarded with a firm price for their oil. And then we are no longer talking about the 10 to 20 dollar oil of which we spoke about six years ago. This means talking about the 60 to 70 dollar oil that is needed to develop such risky projects.”

The oil price has already reached 90 to 100 dollars per barrel?

“On this price there is a premium that is to our opinion caused by a temporary scarcity of oil. It is not the structural oil price that is needed to bring new projects to the market.”

So the price increases of late is the work of speculators on the market?

“That’s what is being said, I think that this is correct. But only under the present conditions that makes it possible to speculate due to the artificial shortage on the market that has been caused by OPEC. By brining insufficient production to the market. “

And this artificial shortage is caused by insufficient dollars?

“Well I can not peer into the minds of OPEC and what they are envisioning by creating an artificial shortage. If we look at the latest remarks, and believe those, then we see that OPEC is also not that happy with the high oil price of today. What we are now seeing for the first time is that in the past quarter the worldwide demand for oil is falling. This is not what OPEC was expecting and also the IEA did not expect this to happen. But this is the effect of the high oil price and I cannot imagine that OPEC is happy with this situation. That the worldwide demand for oil starts to decrease. Because in the end they still have a lot of oil that they want to produce and sell. At these prices people will start to drive more sparingly, start to drive less, and look for alternatives for oil. Maybe much faster than OPEC itself would want."

Your function is head of crisis management, when is a crisis occuring according to the IEA?

“If there is a sudden shortage of oil, that is different from the situation that we just spoke about which can be described as a gradual mismatch between supply and demand. We call something a crisis if there is an incident or war or something somewhere that causes a significant temporary shortage of oil. In such a situation we have mechanisms, especially strategic oil stocks that can be brought to the market to meet the difference between supply and demand. Depending on the size of such a shortage the gap can be filled for a year, or maybe two years. In anyway there is quite substantial amount of oil stored in strategic oil stocks. But insufficient to fill a gap between supply and demand for years and years. That is why in the case of a gradual mismatch of supply and demand these stocks will not be used.”

As the oil price rises and the energy hunger of the large powerful countries increases, we see that these countries are increasing their aggressive stance. How do you see Europe maintaining itself in such a world?

“Energy politics are of all ages. That energy politics and geo politics have always been intertwined. A wonderful book has been written about this that described that at the end of the 19th century this was already the case, and that the 1st and 2nd world war were finally decided because of energy availability. At the moment, for Europe specifically we still have quite a substantial amount of natural gas but not so much oil anymore. The North Sea is depleted which implies that we need to import more from outside of Europe. In itself this is not bad at all, world trade exists simply due to the fact that one product moves from place A to B. In the Netherlands we also no longer grow coffee but we still drink it. So there is no real basis for concern, where we do have to invest in though is good relations with countries were there is still energy. And for Europe there is certainly a role to play in the direction of Russia, the Caspian Countries and the Middle East. To make sure that our relationships with these countries are good and being looked after."

Those who have been keeping up to date on Peak Oil know that supply's been falling short of demand for quite some time now. For those who haven't, this is not good news, and probably explains why oil prices went up significantly today.

[brianeyci]

It's funny that they don't even understand the Peak Oil argument at all.

They say that "in the long term the oil will run out."

NO, it will not run out. If it get to the point it's that low, they will just grow the shit and stuff like the US military will always have oil. The problem is the loss of cheap oil not the loss of all oil, which has serious economic consequences.

They can't even get that part of it right, and buy into the strawman that Peak Oil is about the loss of all oil. One wonders if they've ever heard of the concept of limit, or done any Calculus at all. Taking half of half over and over is not zero, and it will never run out: it will just reach astronomical prices and only governments will have the capital to procure oil.

[Natorgator]

Who gives a shit? The main idea is thusly:

At the IEA we do not believe this, we think that we know that we are still not nearly halfway, that there are plenty of reserves underground in areas where little to no oil exploration has taken place. Until now oil companies have only searched in areas where oil was relatively simple to find. Now we are looking for oil at increasingly greater depths in the oceans and more and more at northern locations above Russia. Oil is still being found at the moment, and we can continue to find oil for a long time to come.”

[Admiral Valdemar]

The IEA is a funny bunch. They've said this past month that all liquids has made a new all time peak. Something that flies against the EIA, who are now more conservative when once it was the other way around.

It may yet be revised down, but if the figures are accurate, then we have a new peak year at around 86 mbpd. However, this is all liquids, which means ethanol too and NGL. Those do not contain as much energy as light, sweet crude, and so while they have made a sizeable increase (which has peaked) in recent years thanks to the bio-fuels grab, they have not turned the tide all that much, if anything, only helping keep us standing still.

[J]

One has to read between the lines a bit with the IEA; when they say "we may have a slight problem in the future with meeting demand" it more or less translates as "we're really up the creek without a paddle now..."

[Admiral Valdemar]

Their medium term outlook this summer both confirmed, and denied, peak oil was reached. I've not even seen the likes of CERA's very own Baghdad Bob, Dan Yergin, twist around that badly. If they came out and said it as it really is, the markets would crash and there'd be runs on banks. Fortunately (in some ways), they say just enough to placate the markets and also let those who really know that we are in dire straits.

[Androsphinx]

It's funny that they don't even understand the Peak Oil argument at all.

They say that "in the long term the oil will run out."

NO, it will not run out. If it get to the point it's that low, they will just grow the shit and stuff like the US military will always have oil. The problem is the loss of cheap oil not the loss of all oil, which has serious economic consequences.

They can't even get that part of it right, and buy into the strawman that Peak Oil is about the loss of all oil. One wonders if they've ever heard of the concept of limit, or done any Calculus at all. Taking half of half over and over is not zero, and it will never run out: it will just reach astronomical prices and only governments will have the capital to procure oil.

He did say "The theory of Peakoil says that we have currently used about half of the oil production that is available under ground. That implies that we can no longer produce more than we are currently doing, and that oil production is going to drop sooner than later".

And it's that drop in production which will push prices up unpredictably and potentially catastrophically. More expensive oil we can deal with, but it's the inability of supply to meet demand which will have the most devestating impact.

[Admiral Valdemar]

The Kingdom is now selling cheap heavy crud for a discount, which explains the sudden jump in some C+C this past few weeks to allay fears in the market, that, and they likely used some of their own inventory stored.

When Cantarell finally fails, it will be seriously hard to ignore even for the boneheads on Wall Street. The loss of 12% of the US' imports will devastate them. The loss of around 5% caused the fuel lines of '73.

And let's not forget, the many new fields coming on stream are smaller, don't last as long and will be taking more energy to produce, assuming they even come on-stream on time. The older giants are all peaked and only the ones that were carefully managed with older technology are going the way of the original Texan fields, rather than the North Sea of GOM fields.

[J]

The Kingdom is now selling cheap heavy crud for a discount, which explains the sudden jump in some C+C this past few weeks to allay fears in the market, that, and they likely used some of their own inventory stored.

There was also some speculation on TOD about the seemingly amazing coincidence of the Saudis shutting down a 400,000 barrel per day refinery around the time the new quotas kicked in. It could be a coincidence, or it could be an attempt to run the Export Land Model in reverse.

[Androsphinx]

The Kingdom is now selling cheap heavy crud for a discount, which explains the sudden jump in some C+C this past few weeks to allay fears in the market, that, and they likely used some of their own inventory stored.

When Cantarell finally fails, it will be seriously hard to ignore even for the boneheads on Wall Street. The loss of 12% of the US' imports will devastate them. The loss of around 5% caused the fuel lines of '73.

I had dinner with an energy investor tonight, who suspects that the KSA will do enough to drive down prices, (probably to about $50-60, maybe lower), to give them some breathing-room to grab all they can while people are distracted. "Then", he finished "we'll make out like pirates one last time".

[The Duchess of Zeon]

Most of the major oil companies in the world in their own internal correspondence now agree that absolute peak (the most ominous and final of the peaks) will happen in 2012. Until then we will still be increasing production, though primarily from extremely heavy and hard to refine sources with reduced energy yield. After that point, we will at best be on an undulating plateau. The length of the plateau is variable and is based on how frantically we respond to peak oil; there are two options, more or less:

1. We allow production to decline immediately, with a short peak, and a managed decline.

2. Oil companies, under pressure from immense prices and incredible demand, artificially sustain the plateau for a decade or even 15 - 18 years, using all the new technology they can to scrape and suck every bit of oil out of the ground as fast as they can. This includes such destructive methods as water-forced pumping which actually reduce the total amount of recoverable oil in the field in exchange for getting it out rapidly. Such behaviour will allow our economy and car culture to limp along for a while, but, if it is done, will result in an abrupt crash at the end of the plateau where supplies, as the overtaxed fields give out, plunge at incredible rates.

Guess which one is more likely?

Furthermore, there is the other factor we must consider. What the IEA is admitting now (and what is fact), is that demand is growing faster than production. That means oil production per capita is now falling. That is going to cause continuously rising prices and severe shortages, even if production continues to slightly increase for the next five years. Quite simply, we don't even need peak to happen yet for a large oil crisis to start; all we need is the developing world's demand to be so high that it's rising at rates which the very limited increases in production possible simply cannot cope with.

And that is what is happening right now.

[brianeyci]

He did say "The theory of Peakoil says that we have currently used about half of the oil production that is available under ground. That implies that we can no longer produce more than we are currently doing, and that oil production is going to drop sooner than later".

And it's that drop in production which will push prices up unpredictably and potentially catastrophically. More expensive oil we can deal with, but it's the inability of supply to meet demand which will have the most devestating impact.

Without understanding that peak oil means the destruction of cheap oil and not the destruction of all oil, they will not understand that above a certain point, oil will simply be too expensive for the citizen and result in the destruction of the economy. The problem with the destruction of all oil hypothesis is it makes people roll their eyes, say it's impossible because they'll always be oil, and mention other ways of making oil or more expensive oil like the tar sands. But get in a moderate's head that it's the destruction of cheap oil and they say, hey maybe this bell curve has a point.

You cannot deal with more expensive oil, because some people have money and others do not, end of story. Supply will always meet demand in economic models because that's the meaning of supply and demand in economics. Those guys who are able and willing to pay for the oil are the demand: I am not kidding, this is the way economists think. The demand will evaporate according to them, because if you can't afford it it's the same as if you don't want it according to their retarded logic.

To explain peak oil to people, I would sidestep economic terms entirely and talk about it as the loss of all cheap oil.

[Admiral Valdemar]

Well that's typically the only way to get any sense out of a discussion, because otherwise it turns to the "there'll always be oil" argument, which is true, if fallacious in this instance with respect to how it will affect our predicament. Oil and coal left in the ground thanks to price is useless to everyone.

[brianeyci]

Yeah, they'll always be oil. Just give it to them. But mention the price increases the past few years, then mention four hundred dollar a barrel or one thousand dollar a barrel oil and ask the person if he can afford it. Ask him if he can afford ten dollars a litre oil. Then move on to ramifications throughout the entire economy.

Anybody can understand price. Even the most dumb can understand, yesterday 90 cents today 110 cents maybe two years from now ten bucks and I get fired.

If you really want to get people aware of peak oil and help them, you're going to have to sell it and unfortunately turn down alarmism of running out of oil. You even admit the IEA is preventing bank runs and so on by not saying all is doomed, so there is some societal impetus to an optimistic outlook.

To summary it is not the only way to start a peak oil discussion by saying the oil will run out. That's about the worst way to talk about it, because it's not even true.

[Guardsman Bass]

At least the topic is getting more serious discussion worldwide - the Association for the Study of Peak Oil website mentions that they actually just opened up the Chinese Chapter of ASPO, with some important figures from Chinese universities, the petroleum industry there, and the government involved. It's only Step 1 out of 1337, but it's better than taking two steps back.

[Winston Blake]

Furthermore, there is the other factor we must consider. What the IEA is admitting now (and what is fact), is that demand is growing faster than production. That means oil production per capita is now falling. That is going to cause continuously rising prices and severe shortages, even if production continues to slightly increase for the next five years. Quite simply, we don't even need peak to happen yet for a large oil crisis to start; all we need is the developing world's demand to be so high that it's rising at rates which the very limited increases in production possible simply cannot cope with.

And that is what is happening right now.

I saw a relevant diagram on a Peak Oil website once, explaining why the shit will hit the fan before the peak arrives. This is my crude freehand (or 'freemouse') reproduction:

Essentially, since the rate of increase will go from positive to negative as the peak approaches, we'll be screwed before the peak hits even as production is still increasing. This would be true even if oil supply continued to increase forever - the important point is that demand will eventually be growing faster than supply.

Of course, after the peak, the gap grows much faster.

[Androsphinx]

You cannot deal with more expensive oil, because some people have money and others do not, end of story. Supply will always meet demand in economic models because that's the meaning of supply and demand in economics. Those guys who are able and willing to pay for the oil are the demand: I am not kidding, this is the way economists think. The demand will evaporate according to them, because if you can't afford it it's the same as if you don't want it according to their retarded logic.
To explain peak oil to people, I would sidestep economic terms entirely and talk about it as the loss of all cheap oil.

Oh, I see what you mean. All I meant was that price increases now and for the next few years are less to do with production costs, and more to do with demand exceeding supply. The IEA do know what Peak Oil is, they just aren't very happy with it. So it's inaccurate to blame them for ignorance - as opposed to, say, obsfucation.

[Natorgator]

Most of the major oil companies in the world in their own internal correspondence now agree that absolute peak (the most ominous and final of the peaks) will happen in 2012.

Source?

Leave it to the Peak Oil doom and gloomers to spin this report in the absolute worst case possible. I think it's more likely that the price of oil will gradually keep rising, and eventually other forms of energy will find their way to market. $150/per barrel of oil is a pretty fucking powerful incentive to invent new forms of energy production. It's already happening and we haven't even hit $100 yet; nevermind the fact that a large part of the high price is due to the dollar being worth less than the toilet paper I wipe my ass with.

[K. A. Pital]

Natorgator

I think you don't understand a fundamental problem:
1) more expensive energy reduces demand
2) EROEI for types of energy other than oil is rather low, which means alternative power sources will not increase total supply of energy or lower prices in any way

The age of expensive energy will mean massive economic calamities. In fact, they already are occuring, it's just that many try to turn a blind eye. Especially the First World, which has control over world finances and a large asset-rich "underbelly" to try to suffer through the crisis. Most other nations and people don't, so they're already suffering.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

Most of the major oil companies in the world in their own internal correspondence now agree that absolute peak (the most ominous and final of the peaks) will happen in 2012.

Source?

Leave it to the Peak Oil doom and gloomers to spin this report in the absolute worst case possible. I think it's more likely that the price of oil will gradually keep rising, and eventually other forms of energy will find their way to market. $150/per barrel of oil is a pretty fucking powerful incentive to invent new forms of energy production. It's already happening and we haven't even hit $100 yet; nevermind the fact that a large part of the high price is due to the dollar being worth less than the toilet paper I wipe my ass with.

The easiest source is right here, with the crucial part being: "heard representatives from industry forecast that the best data available data pointed to reserves of 250 billion barrels of yet-to-find global conventional oil, and as a result oil production would plateau at less than 100 million barrels per day before 2020."


That is fact. The part about a specific 2012 date is in the article in detail. Now how does your freakish response to it, so filled with fear and denial, change objective fact?

ASPO conference confirms a peak in global oil production by 2012

by Douglas Low

A conference held in Cork, Ireland by the Association for the Study of Peak oil and Gas (ASPO) last week [1] heard representatives from industry forecast that the best data available data pointed to reserves of 250 billion barrels of yet-to-find global conventional oil, and as a result oil production would plateau at less than 100 million barrels per day before 2020.

This was followed up by a range of speakers who stated that current trends in bringing new projects onstream indicate that global oil production would peak on or before 2012, a forecast that coincides with the latest announcement from International Energy Agency that an oil crunch will occur by 2012 [2].

The case for a plateau in global oil production of less than 100M barrels/day before 2020 was put by Ray Leonard, Vice President (Eurasia) of Kuwait Energy Company, who presented a summary of the results from the Hedberg Conference [3]. The Hedberg conference concluded that there were about 250 B barrels of conventional oil yet-to-find, 200 -1000 B barrels will be available from reserves growth, and future production from unconventional oil [4] is unlikely to exceed 6 Mb/d. Taking all these factors into account, Leonard forecast that global oil production will plateau at less than 100 M barrels/ day before 2020. This forecast was reiterated by Mike Rodgers, Senior Partner with the highly respected US-based energy consultancy PFC Energy.

There then followed a series of speakers led by Chris Skrebowski, editor of the London-based Energy Institute's Petroleum Review [5], who share the previous speakers' views on reserves, but concluded that global oil production will peak about 2011. Skrebowski presented data from his MegaProjects database [6] that showed oil production from new projects will peak in 2009, then decline such that by 2011-2012, depletion from existing fields will outstrip growth from new fields. Skrebowski stated that it is possible to forecast production capacity from new fields 5-6 years ahead because it takes an average of 6-7 years to take a major oil field from first discovery to first production. While there may be 250B barrels of conventional oil yet-to-be discovered, if any particular field was not already being developed, it was unlikely to be producing before 2013. There are exceptions, but for every field that could be developed in less than six years, there was one that would take longer. A global peak in oil production by 2011 was backed up by James Buckee, CEO of Talisman Energy Inc.

Summarising, Douglas Low, Director of ODAC, said: "The conference speakers from both industry and the Peak Oil community agreed that there were two scenarios for a maximum in global oil production.

The emphasis from the first group of speakers was that based on the best oil reserves data, global oil production would plateau before 2020, at less than 100M barrels / day.

The second group agreed with the reserve figures quoted, but said that due to constraints in implementing new projects such as lack of skilled staff, resource nationalism and oil depletion, global oil production was likely to peak rather than plateau no later than 2011.

Now that this analysis is backed up by the IEA's recent forecast that we are facing a global supply crunch by 2012, we have to start asking why our governments are not treating the oil supply issue with an increased sense of urgency."

---
1. Time to React? The sixth annual conference of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, 17-18 September, Cork, Ireland.

2. Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) - July 2007. omrpublic.iea.org/mtomr.htm. From the Executive Summary: "Despite four years of high oil prices, this report sees increasing market tightness beyond 2010, with OPEC spare capacity declining to minimal levels by 2012... It is possible that the supply crunch could be deferred - but not by much... Indeed, any easing in expected tightness may be even less than this snapshot analysis suggests."

3. The Hedberg Conference on World Oil reserves, held in Colorado Springs in November 2006, was a gathering of industry and government experts to debate the level of world oil reserves and future production potential. Represented were the six "super major" private firms, the leading national oil firms, such as Aramco, Petronas, Pemex and Petrobras, leading independent oil companies and state organizations and think-tanks. Participants were invited based on expertise and willingness to give a detailed presentation on a significant petroleum province. Press was not invited and presentations were only shared between participants in order to allow a free exchange of information and ideas. The conference was divided into three sections; new reserves to be found through exploration, additions to existing fields and future production from unconventional (tar and oil sands, shale oil) methods.

4. Unconventional oil - Canadian tar sands, Venezuelan heavy oil and USA shales.

5. Chris Skrebowski is also a member of the ODAC Board of Trustees.

6. See Table 1 in: http://www.odac-info.org/bulletin/docum ... eb2007.pdf.

7. The Oil Depletion Analysis Centre (ODAC) is a UK-registered educational charity working to raise international public awareness and promote better understanding of the world's oil and gas depletion problems. Further information is available at www.odac-info.org/. ODAC is the ASPO branch in the UK and produces two free e-mail newsletters.

[Illuminatus Primus]

Gloom and doomers = DEAD WRONG! See mommy, I made an argument!

[TheMuffinKing]

Gloom and Doomers=Totally Right! See Daddy, I made a rebuttal!

[Admiral Valdemar]

Gloom and doomers = DEAD WRONG! See mommy, I made an argument!

Hilariously, this took five pages of debate over at SB.com a few months back which ended with me finally flat out stating I couldn't give a shit any more, but more verbose and after a great many links, citations and diagrams proving people wrong (we had CERA quoted as a factual source and the USGS, I wish I was joking).

There will always be a "The market knows best" response, because there are loads of people who do not get economics. The market GOT US INTO THIS MESS.

And I'm sure we'll all be driving solar powered cars when oil reaches $150 a barrel. Next summer. The small matter of replacing every car being over $10 trillion is something only doomsayers dwell upon. They have no vision, after all, optimism isn't a delusion like gross pessimism.

Plus surely the gov'mint is always on top of things and would never let us fall into the abyss without a plan, not with technology and advisers on our side!

Gloom and Doomers=Totally Right! See Daddy, I made a rebuttal!

Haven't you got tired of taking it up the arse here yet on this topic, or are you simply masochistic?

[Zablorg]

Go to your rooms, both of you. Mommy and I have something important we need to talk about. Don't open our door.

I fucking hate being born in the age of apoclypse. Everywhere I look there's something bad happening to the planet.

[Admiral Valdemar]

To be honest, I go through motions of depression and blind optimism depending on the day. Explaining it to people online is a good primer for talking about it in person, and on TOD.com, some members have given talks to their children even, to educate them on what may come.

I think given we're seeing exports drop sharply before a cessation in production growth and true peak, we should anticipate a worst case scenario and prepare people for that eventuality. That way, if a miracle does happen and God plants some more Prudhoe Bays and Brents in the ground, we may just be thankful for what we have.

Actually, even without major disruption, the talk should still be given if we all achieved personal nuclear fusion tomorrow, because one way or another, growth will end. And no, I don't find blasting into space is going to change that fact until we find new Earths. Energy is just the more immediate limiter to our livelihoods right now, so the inevitability of capitalism being drastically re-analysed or simply replaced needs to be on the agenda, so long as it kow tows the infinite growth line of reasoning,