US Missile Defence in E. Europe - the view from Russia

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Post by Tanasinn »

It will be decades before China even remotely becomes a threat to the US.
Yeah, it's a great idea to rest on your haunches while an ambitious country ruled by vicious fascists bootstraps its military as fast as it can. Why, look how well that worked for Britain and France as Germany got themselves ready to go! :wink:
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Post by Tanasinn »

What rationale does the Russians have to fear a first strike from the United States?
Our unprovoked attack on Iraq, maybe? :lol:
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Post by Sidewinder »

Tanasinn wrote:
It will be decades before China even remotely becomes a threat to the US.
Yeah, it's a great idea to rest on your haunches while an ambitious country ruled by vicious fascists bootstraps its military as fast as it can. Why, look how well that worked for Britain and France as Germany got themselves ready to go! :wink:
Unlike Germany, China is NOT harboring significant desires to expand its territory, except maybe in certain parts of Siberia that were conquered by Tsarist Russia, and even then, the Russians fear illegal immigrants seeking work more than the (very unlikely) possibility of a Chinese soldier running amok with a rifle.
Please do not make Americans fight giant monsters.

Those gun nuts do not understand the meaning of "overkill," and will simply use weapon after weapon of mass destruction (WMD) until the monster is dead, or until they run out of weapons.

They have more WMD than there are monsters for us to fight. (More insanity here.)
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Post by Kanastrous »

Mange wrote: That is nothing but outright paranoia which the Russians yet have to recover from the Cold War era.
There's a lot they seem to retain from the Cold War era.

Just saw a Russian TV show where people's friends have them put on a show where their lousy fashion sense is dissected and they are given a make-over - and it's called Fashion Court, where people are "denounced" and "arrested" and "tried" by the host as "judge." Kind of like What Not to Wear meets the 1930s purge trials...

...if that's their idea of light tv-entertainment, I shudder to think what their perspective on serious stuff like ABM might be.
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Post by Lonestar »

Tanasinn wrote:
Our unprovoked attack on Iraq, maybe? :lol:
Yeah, because there are no legal, moral, or practical distinctions between attacking Iraq and Russia.

Nope! None at All!
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Post by Ritterin Sophia »

Tanasinn wrote:
It will be decades before China even remotely becomes a threat to the US.
Yeah, it's a great idea to rest on your haunches while an ambitious country ruled by vicious fascists bootstraps its military as fast as it can. Why, look how well that worked for Britain and France as Germany got themselves ready to go! :wink:
Whilst I agree that China is a danger, it's not because of the reason you are positing. With the way China is using up resources it's not going to reach superpower status before it has to wage a war. I say has to because China will have to wage a war for resources just to survive. Link
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Post by Fingolfin_Noldor »

General Schatten wrote: Whilst I agree that China is a danger, it's not because of the reason you are positing. With the way China is using up resources it's not going to reach superpower status before it has to wage a war. I say has to because China will have to wage a war for resources just to survive. Link
The only place to go for China, is north, which I really highly doubt especially if they don't want to get nuked into oblivion, which leaves the Spratlys which is a tricky proposition.
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Post by phongn »

Fingolfin_Noldor wrote:And stealth bombers?
It's not like low-observable aircraft are immune from interception.
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Post by Tanasinn »

Lonestar wrote:
Tanasinn wrote:
Our unprovoked attack on Iraq, maybe? :lol:
Yeah, because there are no legal, moral, or practical distinctions between attacking Iraq and Russia.

Nope! None at All!
When you've just seen a big country fucking sit on a little country that (despite being run by a bunch of assholes) hadn't really done anything lately - despite protest of allies and neutral parties - then you're a little justified in worring when said big country starts talking about missile defense systems and giving you dirty looks over your earlier opinions.

I'm not going to claim it isn't paranoia to think a U.S. attack on Russia as a possibility (it is), but you'd be a terrible statesman if you just put on a shit-eating grin and hoped for the best. The "just in case" attitude towards ABm defense works both ways.
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Post by Adrian Laguna »

phongn wrote:
Fingolfin_Noldor wrote:And stealth bombers?
It's not like low-observable aircraft are immune from interception.
They are not magical invisible bombers. Furthermore stealth bombers can be seen on radar, they're just hard to see. They actively avoid radar sites for that reason.
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Post by K. A. Pital »

Shep, stop your wah-wah. At least we didn't have NAVAL, SPACE and "on your border in an unfriendly state" elements of ABM combined. Oh, and AIR too.

America clearly is breaking the deal. The fact that the deal is outdated is true, but stop insinuating like it was Russia who broke the treaty - show me a comprehensive Russian ABM program with air and space based elements? NO? Well the fuck then.
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Post by Fingolfin_Noldor »

Adrian Laguna wrote:
phongn wrote:
Fingolfin_Noldor wrote:And stealth bombers?
It's not like low-observable aircraft are immune from interception.
They are not magical invisible bombers. Furthermore stealth bombers can be seen on radar, they're just hard to see. They actively avoid radar sites for that reason.
With Russia such a big country, combined with low observability, it will be hard to track every damn thing.
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Post by MKSheppard »

I'd be more concerned with the only 21 built; that doesn't really leave much for operations.

I know that SAC in the old days demanded 80% OR for their bombers; but it seems that the AF has settled for just a 60% OR for the B-2, due to the complexity of maintaining the stealth coatings; they may have improved that requirement since the original formulation.

There's also the fact that you'll need a couple of aircraftremaindered for test and training duties, e.g. to train new pilots formally in the aircraft once they graduate from simulator training, and to drop bombs as part of test programs, to certify new munitions for the fleet.

I'm not sure whether they've continued to upgrade the B-2's capabilities; for about five years from '95 to '00; at least several aircraft were always in the shop at Grumman, being upgraded to block 30.
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Post by K. A. Pital »

Kanastrous wrote:There's a lot they seem to retain from the Cold War era.
It's always nice to hear about us in third person, but did it ever cross you that we might retain some Cold War things for good reasons, no? :roll: Like, the military?
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Post by MKSheppard »

Anyway, this is all just Russian bitching over the fact that life has changed and them demanding that the Europeans continue to have a suicide pact to appease Russian sensibilities.

Europe is building up quite a lot of ABM programs:

MEADS - Joint US/German/Italian program to replace HAWKs, will have TMD capabilities.

SM-3 - The Dutch plan to refit several of their ships to carry SM-3s; IIRC they've already tested out some of the software modifications required for TMD on their ships; they still haven't completely comitted to it; because they have yet to accept delivery of SM-3s.

The French are playing around with Exo atmospheric kill systems similar to our GBI -- On paper now

and of course; by building a missile defense complex in Europe, America is actually fulfilling her committments to NATO defense; by extending her missile shield to her allies as well; so that it's no longer "Hahah, america is invincible, while europe gets pasted".
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Post by hongi »

That is nothing but outright paranoia which the Russians yet have to recover from the Cold War era. What rationale does the Russians have to fear a first strike from the United States?
In a decade or two, that may change. The Russians are looking towards the future. Sure it's not likely that the US will attack Russia, but they can't take the chance can they?
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Post by Sea Skimmer »

MKSheppard wrote:Anyway, this is all just Russian bitching over the fact that life has changed and them demanding that the Europeans continue to have a suicide pact to appease Russian sensibilities.

Europe is building up quite a lot of ABM programs:
You missed a big domestic program, hose the Aster 30 missile has a limited ABM capability when used with the SAMP-T land based system, and a block 2 missile with vastly improved anti missile capability for ships and shore batteries is in the works. This weapon seems to have replaced talk of an Aster 45 ABM missile.

Anyway, as long as Russia is busy building new ICBMs, new SLBMs, and new SSBNs while using US funds to destroy the old ones, I couldn’t give a damn less what they think about our purely defensive weapon systems.
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Post by K. A. Pital »

...so that it's no longer "Hahah, america is invincible, while europe gets pasted".
No, it's exactly that. Warheads or bombers will be used to destroy the first defensive echelon mechanisms, which lie in those countries, and only then target America. Those countries are massively fucked.
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Post by Vympel »

MKSheppard wrote:
Bullshit. It is in no way limited in any form.
Bullshit - it was placed only around Moscow, that's by definition limited, and in accordance with the relevant treaty.
The GALOSH (ABM-1) was 19.8m long, and 2.97m in diameter and weighed 32,700 kg.

Their latest, the GORGON (ABM-4) is 19.8m long, 2.57m in diameter, and weighs 33,000 kg.

In comparison, the Boeing GBI, which can cover virtually all of CONUS from ICBM attack, is 16.8m long, and 1.27m in diameter, and weighs a mere 12,700 kg.

You're telling me that the Commies, despite having a significantly heavier and bigger missisle in all parameters, can only defend a mere 300~ mile radius around Moscow with it, while the Americans with a much smaller missile can defend all of CONUS?

This does not compute.
You're asserting that because old Soviet missiles are larger, they're just as capable as the GBI and in a position to defend all of Russia? That's ludicrous.
Really?

1.) The SA-5 was tested and developed at the Soviet's officially declared ABM range - Sary-Shagan.
Sary-Shagan also has a SAM test range. I can't believe you're conferring S-200 with a credible ABM capability because of where they test-fired the thing. It was a strategic air defence system rendered quite obsolete by the advent of ALCMs (hence replacement by the S-300, which has no ABM capability to speak of save at the purely short-range level)
2.) MRBMs and IRBMs were fired in trajectories closely approximating that of early SLBMs at Sary-Shagan during that time period.
Which proves what?
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Post by Sidewinder »

Stas Bush wrote:Shep, stop your wah-wah. At least we didn't have NAVAL, SPACE and "on your border in an unfriendly state" elements of ABM combined. Oh, and AIR too.
You're probably right regarding the US government's decision to deploy ABM systems in Eastern Europe, but I get the feeling that if the Russian defense budget could accomodate the construction of naval, air, and space-based ABM systems, the Russian government would certainly deploy these systems.
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Those gun nuts do not understand the meaning of "overkill," and will simply use weapon after weapon of mass destruction (WMD) until the monster is dead, or until they run out of weapons.

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Post by B5B7 »

Russian paranoia is historical, not just from Cold War.
US nuke spam attack on Russia - no economic/political justification for this.
Superpower status - whilst US retains some aspects of Superpowerdom, it politically is more just a power. It is being challenged in economic matters; it has lost any moral 'beacon' status. "bulk of humanity looks to America as a cultural and moral beacon" - Yeah? India?, Islam nations (eg Indonesia)?, Africa?, China?, South America?

Its conventional military forces are mainly defensive, it is economically draining for them in offensive ops.
So over next 2 decades US will become more technologically advanced. And the rest of the world won't?!
With all the talk of nukes, everyone seems to have forgotten the other two components of NBC - other nations can have B & C to destroy US in this paranoid future world of the article. And that is ignoring Delta - a completely new weapon that is not part of NBC.
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Post by K. A. Pital »

I get the feeling that if the Russian defense budget could accomodate the construction of naval, air, and space-based ABM systems, the Russian government would certainly deploy these systems.
Well, why didn't the USSR break the treaty? It had the ability to create space-based elements of ABM and quite readily pondered such projects. It could also put ABM elements on Cuba, such as an EW radar and a small interceptor fleet. Why didn't it do so?

I don't know about Russia's current government willingness' to spend on it, but I think since the treaty is defunct anyway pondering Russia's possibilities is irrelevant.
B5B7 wrote:Russian paranoia is historical, not just from Cold War.
Yes, because people didn't invade Russia so many times in history, and the US in particular didn't once upon a time plan to nuke the hell out of it once upon a time, and didn't massively overspend on nuclear offensive forces when Russia barely tested it's own nuclear device and had virtually zero means of delivery! That's right boys, nothing like that happened. It was all stupid, paranoic Russians!
B5B7 wrote:US nuke spam attack on Russia - no economic/political justification for this.
NOW.
B5B7 wrote:Its conventional military forces are mainly defensive, it is economically draining for them in offensive ops.
Purest bullshit. America has the largest Navy in the world and conducts offensive operations far beyond it's own borders. You can't spout a Navy like that and claim it's "purely defensive".
B5B7 wrote:So over next 2 decades US will become more technologically advanced. And the rest of the world won't?!
Yes, won't. The technological gap isn't closed as easily as you think, moron. Especially in military matters, where you can't just import shit and say "OOOH, now I have those nifty technologies! Nevermind my country is a shithole which can't make such technolologies at all!" - that shit just doesn't fly in the military, and a 30 to 500 billion gap in funding obviously creates disparity in military capabilities. Sorry, your objection is moronic.
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Post by Ritterin Sophia »

Stas Bush wrote:
B5B7 wrote:Its conventional military forces are mainly defensive, it is economically draining for them in offensive ops.
Purest bullshit. America has the largest Navy in the world and conducts offensive operations far beyond it's own borders. You can't spout a Navy like that and claim it's "purely defensive".
Pretty sure he's talking about Russia, since indeed, Russia's Navy was purpose designed by the Soviets to make a USN attack and victory a phyrric one.
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Post by Lonestar »

Tanasinn wrote: When you've just seen a big country fucking sit on a little country that (despite being run by a bunch of assholes) hadn't really done anything lately - despite protest of allies and neutral parties - then you're a little justified in worring when said big country starts talking about missile defense systems and giving you dirty looks over your earlier opinions.

I'm not going to claim it isn't paranoia to think a U.S. attack on Russia as a possibility (it is), but you'd be a terrible statesman if you just put on a shit-eating grin and hoped for the best. The "just in case" attitude towards ABm defense works both ways.
Hey asshole, did you even read your own post?
When you've just seen a big country fucking sit on a little country
What you're trying to do is justify a fear that the United States is going to...launch a full scale, un-provoked, attack with nuclear missiles against a country that can remove more than a few American cities in the exchange(and that's assuming that the ABM system works at near 100% effective rate). Can you tell me where in the History of the United States we have ever started a war with a major power through use of a first strike intended to level the country(and the country has the ability to whale the shit out of us in return)?

Or, it could be that Russia is just pissed that this ABM is negating it's one claim to global power? Gee whiz, it couldn't be something that simple, could it?
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Post by brianeyci »

I'm not going to defend what Tanassin said, mostly because I haven't read it all and he can speak for himself.

I am going to say that it's not a conspiracy theory that someone with an overwhelming advantage should attack if he can completely neuter the opponent before he destroys you. It's game theory. It's like Ender's post a long while ago in OSF where given one species finding out about the existence of another species, if given a chance to annihilate, the smart species attacks. The analogy somewhat fails with two of the same species, but then it's only the biological and social connections between Russia and the US stopping it and those are getting worse by the day. You don't plan for ten years or twenty, you plan for fifty or a hundred.

Do you guys really imagine the Russians pissing their pants and whining only because of a fear of loss of its one claim to "global power?" I read an article from one Mikhail Barabanov, you can read it too, which lists many reasons why they fear attack. Maybe the Russians know why Russians fear the Americans a little better than outsiders, eh?
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