A Russia-Belarus Union?

[CaptainChewbacca]

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MOSCOW - President Vladimir Putin may be about to unveil a political bombshell: a full-scale union between Russia and its smaller Slavic neighbor Belarus.

It's a plan that not only would expand Russia's territory and national prestige; it could also give Mr. Putin, required to step down when his second term ends in March, a new lease on power by producing a fresh Constitution.

Citing Kremlin sources, the independent Ekho Moskvy radio station reported Friday that Putin and Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko will sign a union treaty during Putin's two-day visit to Minsk this week.
A Kremlin spokesman said the report came "from the realm of speculative fantasies," though he did not deny that the long-debated Russia-Belarus union might be on the verge of realization.

The purported deal, to be endorsed by popular referendum, would involve a full merger of the two countries, including common currency, legal system, armed forces, and state symbols. Putin would be likely to become the new superstate's provisional leader and Mr. Lukashenko its speaker of parliament, the station said.

Belarus's beleaguered opposition called on Belarussians to the streets this week to protest "imminent annexation" by Russia.

"It has become clear that Russia will use economic levers [such as high energy prices] to annex Belarus, or at least compel it to join a 'union state,' " Viktar Ivashkevich, deputy head of the Belarussian Popular Front coalition, said in a statement.

Belarus is Russia's closest ally among ex-Soviet states and has long been dependent on Moscow for energy supplies, security assistance, and economic subsidies. The two countries have had a partial union since 1996, when Lukashenko championed the idea. Since the youthful and popular Putin took power from a weak Boris Yeltsin, however, Lukashenko has cooled to the idea.

But Russia has racheted up the pressure on Lukashenko. Last week the Russian state gas monopoly Gazprom announced a new round of hikes that will triple the price Belarus paid barely a year ago. "As Lukashenko searches for ways to survive politically, it may be that cutting a deal with Putin is starting to look like his best option," says Nikolai Petrov, an expert with the Carnegie Center in Moscow.

Moscow has been seething with speculation about Putin's endgame. As the March presidential elections approach, Putin has not been acting like a politician on the eve of retirement. He personally led the electoral ticket of the United Russia party, which won a commanding 64 percent majority in parliamentary elections last week – a victory which he said gives him a "moral mandate" to continue exercising power.

But one by one, theories about how he will do that have collapsed. Putin did not resign before the presidential election campaign officially began, which could have circumvented the constitutional limit of two consecutive terms and enabled him to run again in March. Last week he declined the State Duma seat he had won, ruling out scenarios that saw him as head of a parliamentary majority.

"One of Putin's main characteristics is to never disclose his plan until the last moment," says Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of Russia in Global Affairs, a foreign policy journal. "He allows all sorts of misimpressions to thrive, while he bides his time and decides what he wants to do."

Experts say a Russia-Belarus union might provide the perfect solution for Putin. "This Russia-Belarus union looks like a very timely plan, one that's closely connected with all the other things that are going on, politically, right now," says Mr. Petrov. A referendum could be held as early as March, in both countries, to approve the Constitution of the new state, followed by elections for its key leaders, says Petrov.

Surveys show that people in mainly Russian-speaking Belarus remain deeply nostalgic for the former Soviet Union and strongly back the idea of reunification with Russia. With a two-thirds majority in the Duma, Putin would be unlikely to face impediments at home.

"It's a very serious project. Reunification is something vast majorities in both Russia and Belarus want," says Sergei Markov, a Kremlin-connected analyst. He says the final details are yet to be worked out, but the basic plan under discussion would involve giant, oil-rich Russia absorbing tiny, economically dependent Belarus in much the way China took over the former British colony of Hong Kong a decade ago. "There are powerful economic and security reasons to go ahead," says Markov.

Could be interesting to see how this plays, for Putin and everyone else. I seem to recall a few other nations might want in on such a union.

[K. A. Pital]

It already exists, but Gazprom's actions severely damaged the possibility of such a union.

However, good if they actually go through. I wanted to move there permanently.

There's a mutual passport-regime which gives the right to live and work in both countries with either Russian/Belorussian passport, but I think you could simplify some issues connected with train travel, education diploma evaluation (make sure diplomas evaluate the same in both countries, since this issue wrecked many lives in the FSU smaller republics which suddenly put blocks to evaluation of foreign universities).

[Mange]

It already exists, but Gazprom's actions severely damaged the possibility of such a union.

However, good if they actually go through. I wanted to move there permanently.

Well, not every Belorussian (or Russian either) would approve of a union...

And Lukashenko as speaker? I laughed quietly when I read that yesterday. Not that this will happen, but only the idea that this dictator would hold such a position is laughable at best.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

It already exists, but Gazprom's actions severely damaged the possibility of such a union.

However, good if they actually go through. I wanted to move there permanently.

Well, not every Belorussian (or Russian either) would approve of a union...

And Lukashenko as speaker? I laughed quietly when I read that yesterday. Not that this will happen, but only the idea that this dictator would hold such a position is laughable at best.

On the contrary, he's just an old Soviet Apparatchik, if the KGB tells him to jump, he'll ask how high. Remember all of these guys were part of the government of the same country to start with.

[K. A. Pital]

Well, not every Belorussian (or Russian either) would approve of a union...

The majority as of now, would approve however.

And Lukashenko as speaker? I laughed quietly when I read that yesterday. Not that this will happen, but only the idea that this dictator would hold such a position is laughable at best.

Why? He's mildly popular in Russia. He could also take the position over a "council for Russian-Belorussian relations" or something like that.

On the contrary, he's just an old Soviet Apparatchik, if the KGB tells him to jump, he'll ask how high. Remember all of these guys were part of the government of the same country to start with.

Wrong actually. He's never been in any government except Belorussian (only elected to the Belorussian Council in 1990 as a deputee from his home region), he's fairly young for post-Soviet leaders (53) and he only rose to power after 1993 (he presided over the investigatory commitee for commercial corruption, and became very popular since he vowed to stop the bandit privatization). In 1994 he was elected president of Belarus, but in the USSR he was a very small Belorussian official, and prior to year 1990, he was just a director of a sovkhoz.

[K. A. Pital]

Unification of Russia and Belorussia. Three scenarios.

There are three plausible scenarios of reunification: the first has the President of Russia to become the President of the Union, the second allows for a Union president to be elected by the populations of both countries. The third project has a curtailing of presidential power over such a union, and the Supreme State Council becoming the central power organ.

Earlier "Moscow Echo" reported, allegedly from Belorussian sources, that Putin will head the Union after his term expires. Same version has been put forward by WSJ. However those rumors were denied by the Russian administration.

"I love journalists. They think that laws and constitutions are written for a certain leader. That's dumb" - commented the Union administration head P. Borodin. He said that it's not an "under Putin" or "under Belarus" act, but their Minsk meeting will only determine a political solution for the unification.


He said that the Presidents could decide on this solution either on the 1-on-1 meeting, and the Council congress. Later a special commitee would be set up to prepare all for the execution of the project. "Then the question is raised on the Parliamentary assembly of the Union, then the Parliaments of Russia and Belarus, and then - for Referenda, - says Borodin. - What we need are clear terms. We can talk for dozens of years how much we love and respect each others".

The vice-state secretary Ivan Makushok thinks that adversaries of the Union could have made the press leak right before the Supreme Council meeting. "This information leak could have been made to force the presidents to reject something that was prepared for many years" - he said.

The leader of the Communist Party of Russia, Gennady Zyuganov, thinks that Putin's appointment of successor Dmitry Medvedev gives further evidence for him advancing the Union plans, which he wants to head. "Medvedev is the main friend and ally of Putin, a mediator of his ideas to the population. He personally knows Putin for 17 years. Even two years ago Putin unofficially appointed him, yes, without official embrace, but still as a first successor."