Iowa Caucus

[Flagg]

Oh man, President Huckabee is going to make the US a sad country.

Then again, so will Romney or most any of the other major Republican candidates. I find the prospect of someone like Huckabee in the White House terrifying, but also I find Romney's two-faced, cowardly ignorance absolutely repellent; I can't help but revel in his fall.

When Bhutto was killed, Huckabee went to the press and said that America needs to clamp down on immigration from Pakistan. His aides said that this was the only statement he could make until he was "up to speed" on Pakistan (translation: he didn't even know how to find Pakistan on a map, or who Bhutto was, so he needed to be briefed before he could say anything other than "stop the immigrants").

Several hours after the NIE about Iran was relased Huckabee was asked about it by a reporter at one of his campaign stops and he had no fucking clue what the guy was talking about. It wasn't just that he hadn't had time to read it or anything, he had no fucking clue as to its very existance.

[brianeyci]

Brian, I've never heard Obama speak (coverage in AU is limited to 'zomg darkie said a mean thing' some time ago). Don't tell me someone actually has competent speechwriters and can speak without his nose in a teleprompter?

You have to listen man, listen now! (This one is old, but one of his best, sorry for the fundraising couldn't find another video.)

He makes Hillary, Edwards, Huckabee, et al., look like fresh off the boat. Time didn't call him a possible Kennedy for nothing. I don't know about the teleprompter; they make the fucking things almost invisible nowadays, and it could be somewhere off camera. But I know other events he's spoken, totally unscripted like the link.

[CmdrWilkens]

Obama's victory speech was incredible. Every time I hear the man talk, it's inspiring. And he was doing it with a fucking cold; what the hell is this man like when he's not sick?

"We are not a collection of red states or blue states. We are the United States of America."

I'm still sucking in the fact that a black man won in the whitest state of the USA. It makes me feel that maybe there is hope. We will see in five days.

In five days we'll also see the truly whitest state of them all (97% non-hispanic White)

[Darth Wong]

I'm not worried about a Huckabee presidency because it's just not going to happen. If the guy get's the nomination, Bloomberg will probably run as a moderate conservative option that the non-fundies in the tattered remains of the Rethuglican party will run to.

Back in 2000, I heard a lot of Americans remarking that "liberal fearmongering" about a fundie president was totally unwarranted. And we all know how that turned out, so I see no reason to be blase about the fear of a Hillbilly presidency.

[MKSheppard]

I'm not worried about a Huckabee presidency because it's just not going to happen.

PLEASE.

Don't insult our intelligence like that.

The man has THOUSANDS of willie hortons all ready, waiting to leap out of his closet; "I pardoned convicted killers because they found jesus!" et al.

[Noble Ire]

Oh man, President Huckabee is going to make the US a sad country.

Then again, so will Romney or most any of the other major Republican candidates. I find the prospect of someone like Huckabee in the White House terrifying, but also I find Romney's two-faced, cowardly ignorance absolutely repellent; I can't help but revel in his fall.

When Bhutto was killed, Huckabee went to the press and said that America needs to clamp down on immigration from Pakistan. His aides said that this was the only statement he could make until he was "up to speed" on Pakistan (translation: he didn't even know how to find Pakistan on a map, or who Bhutto was, so he needed to be briefed before he could say anything other than "stop the immigrants").

As I said, I find the prospect of him in the Oval Office terrifying. I just despise Romney, too.

[Metatwaddle]

I think Mike Huckabee is a very dangerous candidate, but I'd feel much better with Obama as the Democratic candidate than Clinton. Clinton bothers people by being transparently power-hungry and just feeling fake, whereas Obama is downright inspiring. I think he might be able to beat Huckabee in a general election. I don't think Clinton could.

[Darth Wong]

I'm not worried about a Huckabee presidency because it's just not going to happen.

PLEASE.

Don't insult our intelligence like that.

Yeah, Americans would never be stupid enough to vote for a Bible thumping moron with no knowledge of foreign affairs and a checkered past, would they?

Oops.

[Durandal]

There are some very interesting statistics coming out of this.

41% of Obama's supporters were first-time voters. So this means that he's galvanizing the youth vote. Almost two thirds of caucus-goers were Democrats. 60% of Republican caucus-goers were evangelical Christians, which should explain Huckabee's win.

Basically, the Republicans don't have much beyond the evangelical crowd, and the fact that they had such a dismal showing in the caucuses compared to the Democrats says that Republicans are, in general, not happy with their choices. (And why should they be? The least offensive front-runner pushed for the release of a serial rapist who went on to rape again after being released.)

It's even more significant when you consider that registered Republicans and Democrats in Iowa are even as a proportion of the population at 30%, with 40% being unaffiliated.

This pretty much spells out that people are getting sick of the Republicans. Finally.

[Flagg]

I'm not worried about a Huckabee presidency because it's just not going to happen. If the guy get's the nomination, Bloomberg will probably run as a moderate conservative option that the non-fundies in the tattered remains of the Rethuglican party will run to.

Back in 2000, I heard a lot of Americans remarking that "liberal fearmongering" about a fundie president was totally unwarranted. And we all know how that turned out, so I see no reason to be blase about the fear of a Hillbilly presidency.

I'm just not that worried about it because I don;t think he'll get the nomination, and even if he does, I don;t think that the Republicans and Independants that are sick of Bush would get behind this guy. Things could change, and I don't think it's impossible, but I just don't see it happening.

[Darth Wong]

My concern is that I've come to the following conclusion about the majority of the American electorate: they will vote for whoever they would feel most comfortable about inviting to a backyard barbecue. And for an awful lot of Americans, I'm pretty sure that guy is Hillbilly Huckabee.

[Flagg]

I'm not worried about a Huckabee presidency because it's just not going to happen.

PLEASE.

Don't insult our intelligence like that.

The man has THOUSANDS of willie hortons all ready, waiting to leap out of his closet; "I pardoned convicted killers because they found jesus!" et al.

Like the rapist he helped get released as Governor of Arkansas who went on to rape and murder another woman? All because of the rightwing conspiracy nonsense surrounding the case claiming the guy was railroaded since it was the daughter a close friend of the Clinton's who had been raped and Bill was Governor when the fucker was convicted?

[HemlockGrey]

The Reagan coalition is deader than Jacob Marley. No matter who wins the Democratic nomination, the Democratic Party will united behind them. But the GOP is degenerating into warring tribes. G.W. was able to hold them together, but none of the current Republican nominees are going to be able to do that.

[Flagg]

My concern is that I've come to the following conclusion about the majority of the American electorate: they will vote for whoever they would feel most comfortable about inviting to a backyard barbecue. And for an awful lot of Americans, I'm pretty sure that guy is Hillbilly Huckabee.

I could see it with Bush. He definately has this weird "good old boy" charisma about him and I could imagine sitting at home watching a football game with him while drinking some beers. It's hard to imagine him sitting in a boardroom. Most of that is affected, of course.

But I just can't see with Huckabee. He's like the guy you invite over to watch football and some drink beers who won't shut the fuck up about how great Jesus is.

[Flagg]

The Reagan coalition is deader than Jacob Marley. No matter who wins the Democratic nomination, the Democratic Party will united behind them. But the GOP is degenerating into warring tribes. G.W. was able to hold them together, but none of the current Republican nominees are going to be able to do that.

The only one who could have pulled it off is Fred Thompson. 16 years ago.

[Darth Wong]

My concern is that I've come to the following conclusion about the majority of the American electorate: they will vote for whoever they would feel most comfortable about inviting to a backyard barbecue. And for an awful lot of Americans, I'm pretty sure that guy is Hillbilly Huckabee.

I could see it with Bush. He definately has this weird "good old boy" charisma about him and I could imagine sitting at home watching a football game with him while drinking some beers. It's hard to imagine him sitting in a boardroom. Most of that is affected, of course.

But I just can't see with Huckabee. He's like the guy you invite over to watch football and some drink beers who won't shut the fuck up about how great Jesus is.

Yeah, I'm sure that's a huge liability in a country where almost half the population thinks the world is less than 10,000 years old because the Bible says so.

[brianeyci]

I found Obama's victory speech for you Stark.

"In the face of impossible odds, people who love this country can change it."

"You'll be able to look back with pride and say, this is the moment when it all began."

I don't really care if people think he's a MLK ripoff. The only thing in common with him and MLK is they're both black; Obama has his own charisma and inspiration; if he didn't, he wouldn't have gotten so far from almost nothing.

[Elfdart]

The big thing Huckabee has going against him is the fact that his own party can't stand him. Why? Because he used a few populist dogwhistles in his speeches about the plight of the poor, is not a total harlot for NAFTA, gives hints that he's not a complete war whore, doesn't seethe over the fact that Hispanics are allowed to live north of the Rio Grande, and raised taxes to pay for roads. To the Republitards, these are mortal sins. The abortion/gay marriage stuff is the plausible diversion, which is why Romney, Thompson and Benito Ghouliani get passes on those bullshit issues. Just watch as the right-wing organ grinders and their trained monkeys hurl one sticky paw full of shit after another at Hucksterbee over the next 30 days. It will make the train they pulled on St John McCain look like a foot massage.

[Elfdart]

Speaking of piles of shit that will soon be hurled, I hope Obama studied what the Republitards did to Harold Ford in Tennessee in 2006 and is ready for it.

[Flagg]

My concern is that I've come to the following conclusion about the majority of the American electorate: they will vote for whoever they would feel most comfortable about inviting to a backyard barbecue. And for an awful lot of Americans, I'm pretty sure that guy is Hillbilly Huckabee.

I could see it with Bush. He definately has this weird "good old boy" charisma about him and I could imagine sitting at home watching a football game with him while drinking some beers. It's hard to imagine him sitting in a boardroom. Most of that is affected, of course.

But I just can't see with Huckabee. He's like the guy you invite over to watch football and some drink beers who won't shut the fuck up about how great Jesus is.

Yeah, I'm sure that's a huge liability in a country where almost half the population thinks the world is less than 10,000 years old because the Bible says so.

It surprisingly is, actually. Even Christians who go to church every Sunday get sick of those assholes. Why do you think Bush always has to use code when talking to the fundies? He can say shit like 'God' and 'Faith' and 'Prayer' and even throw out 'Jesus' a few times and get away with it. But when you start spouting off about that shit unsolicited, alot of people just get annoyed and want you to go the fuck away.

[Flagg]

Speaking of piles of shit that will soon be hurled, I hope Obama studied what the Republitards did to Harold Ford in Tennessee in 2006 and is ready for it.

He should have SS agents out there scooping up every conga drum within a 3 mile radius of his appearences.

[Darth Wong]

Yeah, well, I'll believe in America's right-wing collectively curb-stomping Huckabee when I see it. I have lost all faith in the American electorate.

[Flagg]

Yeah, well, I'll believe in America's right-wing collectively curb-stomping Huckabee when I see it. I have lost all faith in the American electorate.

Well you do have a functioning brain, afterall.

[Metatwaddle]

My concern is that I've come to the following conclusion about the majority of the American electorate: they will vote for whoever they would feel most comfortable about inviting to a backyard barbecue. And for an awful lot of Americans, I'm pretty sure that guy is Hillbilly Huckabee.

Huckabee's certainly the most affable (and probably the least internationally informed) of the Republican candidates, and Obama's the most likeable of the Democratic candidates, so you may be onto something there. But I think a lot of people are hard up on money and suffering from high costs of health insurance and so on. I'm hoping rural white people will finally vote in their own interests for once. The majority of Americans are not actually evangelical Christians, although they're so rabid and obnoxious that it's easy to forget that.

Anyway, Obama's just as personable as Huckabee, so even if you're right, Obama's personal charisma can be a counterweight to Huckabee's.

[The Guid]

So, informed political commentators who are the big winners and losers from tonight?

My guess is that the big winners are of course Obama and Huckabee but I think the Iowa caucus has had other effects:

First of all it has confirmed to most that the Democratic race is a three horse race. The combined allocation of the "small players" in the race is not even a tenth of that of Hillary who came third. They have clearly been dwarfed.

Furthermore I would say that Romney will be disappointed. Coming second to anyone is bad, coming second to the guy who he has been targeting and the guy appealing to the same type of voter will be bad for him. Also I understand that Iowa has been a focus of the Romney campaign machine.

It is a bad night for both Edwards and Clinton. Potentially worse for Edwards. Edwards is pitching a similar young charismatic line as Obama, and losing to him and not to Hillary means that he is less likely to pick up the "anti" votes.

Duncan Hunter should give in now.

Fred Thompson, John McCain, Ron Paul and Rudoply Guliani have not had a bad night but not a good one either. Guliani looks bad but his campaign is not Iowa focused as others are. None of the other candidates had so small a showing that they need to throw in the towel.