Yeah, well, I'll believe in America's right-wing collectively curb-stomping Huckabee when I see it. I have lost all faith in the American electorate.
This obviously isn't a precise method of measurement, but I read the Rapture Ready forums sometimes for a laugh, and half the people there absolutely will not vote for Huckabee ever because, get this, he's soft on illegal immigration. When the most religious candidate fails to capture segments of the crowd that perpetually believes they'll be raptured in the next six to eight months, dude's got issues.
My bet this election cycle is that the racist, religious, libertarian, and business wings of the GOP eat each other and a lot of Republicans just end up staying home. Barack Obama cruises to the Presidency.
The End of Suburbia
"If more cars are inevitable, must there not be roads for them to run on?"
-Robert Moses
"The Wire" is the best show in the history of television. Watch it today.
Flagg wrote:Like the rapist he helped get released as Governor of Arkansas who went on to rape and murder another woman?
Well, there's that one; but did you know:
As govenor of Arkansas; Hucksanity pardoned 1,003 people; that's TWICE as many pardons and commutations as the last three people to hold the office COMBINED.
Think about that.
He granted more pardons than:
David Pryor
Bill Clinton
Jim Guy Tucker
COMBINED.
And all over "Jesus told me he was a good person!"
"If scientists and inventors who develop disease cures and useful technologies don't get lifetime royalties, I'd like to know what fucking rationale you have for some guy getting lifetime royalties for writing an episode of Full House." - Mike Wong
"The present air situation in the Pacific is entirely the result of fighting a fifth rate air power." - U.S. Navy Memo - 24 July 1944
Darth Wong wrote:Every white-bread cowboy redneck asshole in the country was already leaning toward Hillbilly anyway, because he's just like Bush. Now that a black man is looking like the early favourite for the Democrats, they will run to vote for Hillbilly.
That was my feeling also. Being a black man seems like much more of a problem than a bonus, and when the alternative is Huckabee... well.
While being black is a liability for Obama, anyone who wouldn't vote for him because he's black is lalso unlikely to vote for him because a Democrat. As it is, they don't hate him as much as Clinton so it's unlikely they'll vote specifically against him. What I mean is, after the race it narrowed down to two people, they might abstain from voting at all if Obama is the Dem guy and they don't like the Republican candidate. Not so with Clinton.
I also think being black is Obama's greatest asset. Quite frankly I'm not convinced that he would have been a viable candidate if he wasn't, no matter how powerful his voice and inspirational his words.
One thing has emerged, the silence on Ron Paul has reached conspiracy levels by the MSM.
Ok how does the Republicans shake out
Huckabee takes home the gold with 34%, Mitt follows up with second place at 25%, while third place is a tie between Fred Thompson and John McCain, and the fourth place?
Ron Paul with 10% of the vote, not great but a hell of allot better than Giuliani who got just 4%!
In four hours of coverage I watched on MSNBC and CNN(Both TV's on) Ron Paul was mentioned only in passing twice on CNN, and not at all on MSNBC. Both times Paul was mentioned only in the lineup, while they spend a good ten minutes discussion on all the rest, including Giuliani and Bill Richardson who both had much worse showings.
Not, mind you that I want a Ron Paul presidency But to see such an obvious conspiracy of silence annoys me greatly. Hell when the MSNBC panel was discussing viable alternatives to Huckabee, they went so far down the list as to talk about Duncan Hunter despite him not even getting 1% of the vote in Iowa and yet they would not mention or bring up Ron Pauls name.
"A cult is a religion with no political power." -Tom Wolfe Pardon me for sounding like a dick, but I'm playing the tiniest violin in the world right now-Dalton
Shocking surprise, both Dodd and Biden have bailed out:
Dodd and Biden drop out of White House race
Fri Jan 4, 2008 12:35am EST
DES MOINES, Iowa (Reuters) - Veteran U.S. Sens. Joe Biden and Chris Dodd dropped out of the race for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination on Thursday after placing a distant fifth and sixth, respectively, in the Iowa caucuses.
Biden of Delaware and Dodd of Connecticut offered perhaps the most experience among the Democratic contenders, having each served in Congress for more than a quarter century. Both chaired powerful committees.
But they came up far short in the race for the White House with polls showing Americans demanding change.
"This evening Democrats sent a clear message that this party is united in our belief that our nation needs change to restore our security, our middle class and all that makes this country great," Dodd, 63, told supporters in conceding defeat.
Biden, 65 -- buoyed in recent days by big crowds and an increase in campaign donations -- said earlier he intended to stick in the race at least until the end of the month. But after the Iowa votes were in, he was out.
Both lawmakers are key figures in the Democratic-led Senate, with Biden chairing the Foreign Relations Committee, which has held hearings examining the unpopular Iraq war, and Dodd heading the Banking Committee, which is eyeing reform to the subprime mortgage market.
Biden, a frequent guest on Sunday TV talks shows who drew good reviews for his performances in Democratic debates, had voiced frustration about his White House bid while freshman Sen. Barack Obama, former Sen. John Edwards and Sen. Hillary Clinton dominated the headlines.
"I'm not a superstar," Biden told Reuters in an interview last month. "People say they like me, people tell me they think I'd be a good president but that they just don't think I can win."
No word on possible endorsements or backings of the remaining candidates.
Mr Bean wrote:One thing has emerged, the silence on Ron Paul has reached conspiracy levels by the MSM.
That's because him and his supporters are fucking nuts. A perfect storm of neo nazis, truthers, and other assorted "Fun" people.
"If scientists and inventors who develop disease cures and useful technologies don't get lifetime royalties, I'd like to know what fucking rationale you have for some guy getting lifetime royalties for writing an episode of Full House." - Mike Wong
"The present air situation in the Pacific is entirely the result of fighting a fifth rate air power." - U.S. Navy Memo - 24 July 1944
Relating to Obama's victory speech. My father, whose judgement I respect tremendously on matters like this, said that Obama will likely be a big hit with Chavez as he's saying "all the right things". He also said that all Obama supporters should hope that Chavez will keep his goddammed trap shut, the man has already cost someone an election.
Yeah, seems the repubs stand a good chance of eating each other. Especially the fundies. Now that the evangelicals have had their war on mormons, could the red state go blue?
Granted, on the large scale, Utah's electorial votes are insignificant and yet Huckabee's attacks on Romney has been viewed as personal here in Zion. So while SLC will probably vote blue and Park City will too, it'll be interesting to see if the other counties shift some too.
If it does, then Huckabee will single handedly pry the GOP's grip off of Utah politics after decades of a super majority. I can't help but lolz at that.
They say, "the tree of liberty must be watered with the blood of tyrants and patriots." I suppose it never occurred to them that they are the tyrants, not the patriots. Those weapons are not being used to fight some kind of tyranny; they are bringing them to an event where people are getting together to talk. -Mike Wong
But as far as board culture in general, I do think that young male overaggression is a contributing factor to the general atmosphere of hostility. It's not SOS and the Mess throwing hand grenades all over the forum- Red
I watched the Harold Ford ad again and I got angry. Let me say that if that happened in any other country, the people in charge would be saced and possibly investigated for hate crime.
As for whether Obama can survive the same kind of attack: being black is only a disadvantage if the opponent can get out enough of the racist vote to overwhelm the candidate. If there is one thing Obama has been good at, it's getting out his own vote.
A strong response by Obama if a Ford happened to him probably wouldn't win him any votes. The racists will still come out in full force, A lot of Obama's success has been because he's been perceived to not "play the race card." The RNC will try and lure Obama into "playing the race card" with the same kind of provocative ad. He should probably respond with a joke like he did about the kindergarten essay. Unfortunate, that dumb shits see noticing racism as racism itself, but that's the reality Obama has to deal with and he can't get suckered into looking like a whiner, not when his whole campaign revolves around the high road. He can also point to the ad as evidence that they are against unity and he is for addition (his whole campaign slogan). If he can't get people angry about the ad enough as racism, he can at least make the ad look ridiculous and retarded.
Obama should enjoy this one, because Hillary has a very decisive lead in just about every other state, and by all indications, he's going to get creamed in New Hampshire.
The problem is that he just can't be everywhere at once. Everyone's been aggressively campaigning in Iowa for the last month, so his message is out there, and people like it. But there are still 49 other states, and Clinton is the brand people trust. Granted, I don't know what kind of effect Iowa's results will have on the rest of the states, but we're talking some serious gaps to overcome (ranging from 10% to over 35% in important states), and I don't see an Iowa win alone doing it.
Obama's got a good message, and he's been running a pretty clean campaign so far. That's his advantage; he just needs more people to hear about it. I'd really like to see him get the nomination over Hillary, but it's still hard to see it happening, even with such a decisive win in Iowa.
Damien Sorresso
"Ever see what them computa bitchez do to numbas? It ain't natural. Numbas ain't supposed to be code, they supposed to quantify shit."
- The Onion
I hope in the Obama surge that Edwards can hang on and make a race of it. This will be really bad news if New Hampshire drinks the John Kerry kool-aid and states start rubber-stamping Obama just because freaking IOWA made a decision.
Huckabee's ascension is different from Bush's. People love to harp on Bush's Dominionist Christian tendencies, but he was the perfect uniter for the GOP, coming from aristo corporate-loving interests, and his advisors were neocon foreign policy hawks.
Huckabee only represents the former of those three interest groups. Huckabee being the nominee will shatter the GOP. The corporatists may very well jump ship to support Bloomberg's Unity cabal. Ron Paul will bring his jihad out of the Republican Party to do their own thing. Some neocons may find a way to ingratiate themselves with Huckabee (who is pretty vacuous on foreign policy, after all). It depends on who his VP would be in the scenario. But for all we know, some of them will cross the aisle.
It's sheer craziness, people. Times are a changing. Time for a realignment and reshuffling of American politics. Could it be this? Who knows.
Durandal wrote:Obama should enjoy this one, because Hillary has a very decisive lead in just about every other state, and by all indications, he's going to get creamed in New Hampshire.
Those polls are all pre-Iowa, though, and some of them are a few months old. I'm not saying Clinton's 30-point leads are going to vanish overnight because Obama won Iowa, but I think the picture is rosier than those statistics would have us believe.
I think New Hampshire is a lost cause for Obama, too, but I also think that the Iowa win is maybe more of a victory for him than any sort of landslide Hillary could possibly get in New Hampshire. People expect her to win New Hampshire. Eugene Robinson (Washington Post guy) said on MSNBC that a lot of the black voters in South Carolina (40% of Democratic SC voters) weren't decided yet because they wanted to see who did well in the first couple of contests. Well, they've got an answer now. Hillary may win handily in NH, but that was always expected. Obama's got momentum from doing better than expected in Iowa, and I think that if Obama finishes a respectable second in NH (what are the poll numbers there, anyway?) he may win SC. That'll be two of the first three.
But I am worried about Super Tuesday for Obama. If primaries happened one state at a time, with big media coverage of each one, I think that would work in his favor, but that's not the way it goes. We'll have to see what happens then.
Should any political party attempt to abolish social security, unemployment insurance, and eliminate labor laws and farm programs, you would not hear of that party again in our political history. There is a tiny splinter group, of course, that believes you can do these things... their number is negligible and they are stupid. --Dwight D. Eisenhower
Precisely. Clinton's money and name-brand recognition give her a massive Super Tuesday advantage. And yes, post-Iowa polls will be interesting, and Obama will probably get help in a lot of places. But that itself won't be enough. What he desperately needs is a grassroots movement akin to what Ron Paul has built up.
Also, this disregards changes Clinton will make to her campaign. I have a hard time believing that heads aren't going to roll after such a decisive loss in the first caucus. It's time for her to stop courting left-wing voters with right-wing scare tactics, and if she doesn't learn that from Iowa, there may be hope for an Obama nomination.
Damien Sorresso
"Ever see what them computa bitchez do to numbas? It ain't natural. Numbas ain't supposed to be code, they supposed to quantify shit."
- The Onion
Durandal wrote:Precisely. Clinton's money and name-brand recognition give her a massive Super Tuesday advantage. And yes, post-Iowa polls will be interesting, and Obama will probably get help in a lot of places. But that itself won't be enough. What he desperately needs is a grassroots movement akin to what Ron Paul has built up.
I'll start putting banners on the overpasses tomorrow. Do you guys have those, or is that an East Coast thing?
Also, this disregards changes Clinton will make to her campaign. I have a hard time believing that heads aren't going to roll after such a decisive loss in the first caucus. It's time for her to stop courting left-wing voters with right-wing scare tactics, and if she doesn't learn that from Iowa, there may be hope for an Obama nomination.
I think the reason she was being a chickenhawk was because she thought it was inevitable that she would be the Democratic nominee for president. In a few months she's gone from inevitability to third place in the first state to vote. That's why I think Obama could have some legs, and why I'm being cautiously optimistic for now. But yeah, she's probably going to change her tune. And I imagine people are going to get fired.
Should any political party attempt to abolish social security, unemployment insurance, and eliminate labor laws and farm programs, you would not hear of that party again in our political history. There is a tiny splinter group, of course, that believes you can do these things... their number is negligible and they are stupid. --Dwight D. Eisenhower
Mr Bean wrote:One thing has emerged, the silence on Ron Paul has reached conspiracy levels by the MSM.
That's because him and his supporters are fucking nuts. A perfect storm of neo nazis, truthers, and other assorted "Fun" people.
Jesus fucking Christ. I find myself agreeing basically with everything SHEP has said in a U.S. ELECTION THREAD. I can't believe it.
"You know what the problem with Hollywood is. They make shit. Unbelievable. Unremarkable. Shit." - Gabriel Shear, Swordfish
"This statement, in its utterly clueless hubristic stupidity, cannot be improved upon. I merely quote it in admiration of its perfection." - Garibaldi in reply to an incredibly stupid post.
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Durandal wrote:Obama should enjoy this one, because Hillary has a very decisive lead in just about every other state, and by all indications, he's going to get creamed in New Hampshire.
The problem is that he just can't be everywhere at once. Everyone's been aggressively campaigning in Iowa for the last month, so his message is out there, and people like it. But there are still 49 other states, and Clinton is the brand people trust. Granted, I don't know what kind of effect Iowa's results will have on the rest of the states, but we're talking some serious gaps to overcome (ranging from 10% to over 35% in important states), and I don't see an Iowa win alone doing it.
Obama's got a good message, and he's been running a pretty clean campaign so far. That's his advantage; he just needs more people to hear about it. I'd really like to see him get the nomination over Hillary, but it's still hard to see it happening, even with such a decisive win in Iowa.
I think Hilary is going to be knocked WAY off balance by this. Her entire schtick is basically "don't really listen to what any of the contestants say, I already really have the nomination." She has no meaningful substance outside of just "being" the establishment pick, and having lost her first test as supposedly locked-in front runner is going to shake her credibility.
"You know what the problem with Hollywood is. They make shit. Unbelievable. Unremarkable. Shit." - Gabriel Shear, Swordfish
"This statement, in its utterly clueless hubristic stupidity, cannot be improved upon. I merely quote it in admiration of its perfection." - Garibaldi in reply to an incredibly stupid post.
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If Huckabee wins the Republican nomination, it will destroy the Republican party. Hell, I'll help that happen. The only way I'm voting in the election at all is if Huckabee is nominated--and then I'll simply vote for whomever the democrat it is. He is such a loathesome individual that I take personal offence to the idea of his running a country.
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Durandal wrote:Obama should enjoy this one, because Hillary has a very decisive lead in just about every other state, and by all indications, he's going to get creamed in New Hampshire.
Really? The lattest CNN poll in New Hampshire has Clinton at 34% and Obama at 30% with the margin at 5% so they are in a statistical dead heat. I think that's a long way from "getting creamed" and that poll was taken in the last days of December so its a lot more recent and relevant.
Once we get beyond New Hampshire we still have to get past South Carolina and Nevada before even talking about Super Tuesday. In South Carolina Obama was holding the lead (though in a statistical dead heat) over Clinton and that polling was done back in mid-December so it likely doesn't even capture Obama's surge to the finish in Iowa.
Simply put there is every reason to believe that Obama can use Iowa to finish overtaking Clinton in New Hampshire as 5 days is not enough time to revamp her whole message in the state but plenty of time for Obama to sell himself as the candidate with the momentum. South Carolina is already leaning towards him and Nevada is within reachable distance. I wouldn't worry too much about michigan first because they may loose all their delegates and thus not matter and second because with two weeks to go and close exposure to both Iowa (where the phone banks are staying open to keep pushing Michigan presumably) and NH the state could swing any which way. So simply put Obama could finish January capturing every Democratic primary except Florida which would give him tremendous momentum going in to Super Tuesday. I think the key is now folks really believe he can win their state because he came from behind in Iowa and if he comes from behind in New Hampshire suddenly the Clinton brand losses some luster and Obama has all the spotlight. So not a sure thing but certainly possible and plausible especially as winning South carolina might finally knock Edwards out and give Obama a huge boost by uniting all the anti-Clinton elements of the party behind him.
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"I put no stock in religion. By the word religion I have seen the lunacy of fanatics of every denomination be called the will of god. I have seen too much religion in the eyes of too many murderers. Holiness is in right action, and courage on behalf of those who cannot defend themselves, and goodness. "
-Kingdom of Heaven
I have always suspected that Romney will get dinged on the fact that he is a Mormon whether people will admit that or not. The Republican base is conservative Christian and they would view Mormons as nothing more than a cult and a mysterious one at that. I think Romney trying to paint his Mormonism as akin to Catholicism (aka JFK) is just not the same since Catholicism for all its differences is Christianity, Mormonism is not. That will be a major contributing factor to his defeat and why Huckabee - ass that he is - is surging in the polls.
Frankly the Republican field is extremely weak this go around and I don't doubt that this election is going to a democrat, however uninviting the choices the democrats are offering are.
I am soooo glad Obama won and Hillary essentially got trounced into third place. Much like Bush when he first ran, there was this awful heir apparent vibe to her campaign that I despised. I don't like her as a person at all and she can never have my vote but its good to see that the rest of the democrats aren't just blind sheep. She is going to have to fight for this nomination.
I have always liked Edwards out of the top Democratic contenders though I don't think he has a chance in hell.
In the end, however, I feel that the Iowa Caucauses may not have the impact that many people seem to think it will have - long term I mean. I think in the end Hillary has the Democratic machine fully behind her and our dynastic presidency continues, as much as I despise the thought. I think her name recognition coupled with the fact that no one has really taken a long hard look at Obama yet (and you KNOW the Clinton dirty tricks are about to start any minute now) may lead to her eventual victory come Super Tuesday.
I'm just glad this has turned into a sort of horse race and not a cake walk for any of the candidates.
Wherever you go, there you are.
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Darth Wong wrote:Yeah, well, I'll believe in America's right-wing collectively curb-stomping Huckabee when I see it. I have lost all faith in the American electorate.
I mean during the primaries. If Hucksterbee gets the nomination, they'll still vote for him. It's just hilarious hearing fanwhores for Il Douchebag (Faux News, Sean Insanity) and Romney (the wankers at Townhall.com) suddenly deciding that Hucksterbee is too much of a fundie redneck for their liking.
There were already talking about last night how Huckabee was not accetable to the business interests of the Republican party even if the Chickenhawks and Born Again's love him.
The more telling point is the fact the former two front runners(Mitt and Giuliani) both did much worse than predicated. Depending on New Hampshire we might see the Republican field finally narrow down some.
"A cult is a religion with no political power." -Tom Wolfe Pardon me for sounding like a dick, but I'm playing the tiniest violin in the world right now-Dalton
Mr Bean wrote:The more telling point is the fact the former two front runners(Mitt and Giuliani) both did much worse than predicated. Depending on New Hampshire we might see the Republican field finally narrow down some.
Giuliani was barely even trying in IA; he's pinning his hopes in Florida.
I'm still holding out hope for a McCain victory. He's in a statistical dead heat with Romney in New Hampshire, and Romney didn't do as well as predicted in Iowa. What if he wins New Hampshire, loses South Carolina (who are we kidding, that's an idea state for Huckabee) and then competes with Huckabee in states like Michigan and Nevada and Florida (okay, Giuliani might have that one pretty well covered), then goes into Super Tuesday? The Republicans in big states like New York and California aren't going to vote for a fundamentalist Christian who knows nothing about foreign policy.
I'm not sure where Romney's going to be in all this, but he lost badly in Iowa, and if he loses in New Hampshire too, that's not going to be good for him at all.
Should any political party attempt to abolish social security, unemployment insurance, and eliminate labor laws and farm programs, you would not hear of that party again in our political history. There is a tiny splinter group, of course, that believes you can do these things... their number is negligible and they are stupid. --Dwight D. Eisenhower
Do you guys have those, or is that an East Coast thing?
