An African Black Death (RAR!)

Zor · Post by **Zor** » 2008-01-23 04:25pm

This is something that could conceviably happen in the near future, given the current state of Sub Saharan Africa.

It is some point in the next (roughly) fifty years, a virulent disease comes out of an overpopulated section of Africa, a virus which spreads quickly through some vector or another and when caught, with cause Death in One in three cases if left untreated and can kill in a manner of weeks, although it is possible to vacinate non infected persons against it . Attempts to contain it early on have failed and because of this it spreads across sub Saharan Africa within a couple of years.

What happens?

Zor

Crazy_Vasey · Post by **Crazy_Vasey** » 2008-01-23 04:27pm

The single greatest wave of asylum seekers the world has ever seen. There's no way we're going to be containing that shit in Africa; we're all screwed.

RIPP_n_WIPE · Post by **RIPP_n_WIPE** » 2008-01-23 04:34pm

Hey I think this has happened already.

It's called AIDS.

Havok · Post by **Havok** » 2008-01-23 05:31pm

RIPP_n_WIPE wrote:Hey I think this has happened already.

It's called AIDS.

AIDS is slow and hard to get if know how not to get it. It's not like people are going to go start having sex with the AIDS refugees or sharing needles with them.

I think the OP is proposing a virus or something that is at the very least skin to skin contractible if not air borne.

General Zod · Post by **General Zod** » 2008-01-23 05:35pm

havokeff wrote: I think the OP is proposing a virus or something that is at the very least skin to skin contractible if not air borne.

It's a safe bet that the Boubonic plague was not an STD.

Enforcer Talen · Post by **Enforcer Talen** » 2008-01-23 05:37pm

IIRC, AIDS uses a lot of the same methods of attack as the Plague, so I would say the OP is already occuring.

Admiral Valdemar · Post by **Admiral Valdemar** » 2008-01-23 06:46pm

A more virulent and contagious version of HIV would be needed. One that could have limited airborne transmission and also have a far faster incubation period of weeks or months rather than a decade. Were that pathogen to come about, we'd quite simply be fucked, Peak Oil and climate change wouldn't factor into it.

Post by **LadyTevar** » 2008-01-23 08:37pm

Enforcer Talen wrote:IIRC, AIDS uses a lot of the same methods of attack as the Plague, so I would say the OP is already occuring.

Sorry, Talen, you lose that bet.

The Bubonic Plague was transmitted by fleas, carried mainly by rats from port to port via the sea trade of the time. Once a human was bitten by an infected flea, the Plague was then spread by skin contact, or by contact with the pus/blood from an infected person. I understand it's unclear if there was an aerial dispersion. It is clear that when one member of a household caught the plague, most of the others inside the house would catch it; more than likely because the fleas and other biting insects passed it along to the rest of the family.

HIV/AIDS is far harder to contract and transport from person to person.

Havok · Post by **Havok** » 2008-01-23 09:25pm

LadyTevar wrote:
Enforcer Talen wrote:IIRC, AIDS uses a lot of the same methods of attack as the Plague, so I would say the OP is already occuring.
Sorry, Talen, you lose that bet.

The Bubonic Plague was transmitted by fleas, carried mainly by rats from port to port via the sea trade of the time. Once a human was bitten by an infected flea, the Plague was then spread by skin contact, or by contact with the pus/blood from an infected person. I understand it's unclear if there was an aerial dispersion. It is clear that when one member of a household caught the plague, most of the others inside the house would catch it; more than likely because the fleas and other biting insects passed it along to the rest of the family.

HIV/AIDS is far harder to contract and transport from person to person.

Fleas in the middle ages is just about as good as an aerosol.

Adrian Laguna · Post by **Adrian Laguna** » 2008-01-23 11:46pm

LadyTevar wrote:I understand it's unclear if there was an aerial dispersion.

It has been suggested that there were different strains of bubonic plague, as the symptoms described by ancient sources often vary considerably. Thus some strains could be dispersed aerially through coughing and sneezing, and others not.

Enforcer Talen · Post by **Enforcer Talen** » 2008-01-24 01:04am

LadyTevar wrote:
Enforcer Talen wrote:IIRC, AIDS uses a lot of the same methods of attack as the Plague, so I would say the OP is already occuring.
Sorry, Talen, you lose that bet.

The Bubonic Plague was transmitted by fleas, carried mainly by rats from port to port via the sea trade of the time. Once a human was bitten by an infected flea, the Plague was then spread by skin contact, or by contact with the pus/blood from an infected person. I understand it's unclear if there was an aerial dispersion. It is clear that when one member of a household caught the plague, most of the others inside the house would catch it; more than likely because the fleas and other biting insects passed it along to the rest of the family.

HIV/AIDS is far harder to contract and transport from person to person.

Well, that, obviously. I was thinking more along the lines of it attacking the cells in a certain way that was similar, with European descent having a higher resistance, while Africans not so much, because they haven't dealt with the plague before.

Post by **Edi** » 2008-01-24 04:11am

Plague caused by Yersinia Pestis came in three varieties: Bubonic, pneumonic and septicemic plague. Pneumonic plague had limited airborne transmission from person to person because it affected the lungs. Septicemic plague was he rarest (and deadliest) of them all and attacked the bloodstream directly instead of festering first in the lymph nodes before entering the bloodstream later.

Post by **Vympel** » 2008-01-24 07:58am

This doesn't belong in N&P.

Big Orange · Post by **Big Orange** » 2008-01-24 08:32am

Captain Trips from The Stand was said to be hybrid of AIDs and Influenza, by being airborne like the so-called Common Cold and having the same killing power as AIDs, with noticible incubation symptons occuring within hours or days, with 90+% of the world's population deceased within a month.

Davey · Post by **Davey** » 2008-01-24 11:02am

Then we are well and truly screwed.

I'd be willing to bet that a lot of people would consider sterilizing the affected areas with nukes, but really, in a realistic scenario, that's out of the question.

Joker · Post by **Joker** » 2008-01-24 12:08pm

You people are depressing me.

That NOS Guy · Post by **That NOS Guy** » 2008-01-24 01:31pm

Joker wrote:You people are depressing me.

Avoid the words of the user "Duchess of Zeon" at all costs then, lest you commit suicide.

The Grim Squeaker · Post by **The Grim Squeaker** » 2008-01-24 02:58pm

That NOS Guy wrote:
Joker wrote:You people are depressing me.
Avoid the words of the user "Duchess of Zeon" at all costs then, lest you commit suicide.

Well, there are worse than she, she's the one going on about "The glorious new age, where the fit shall survive and I shall carve out an empire of survivalists as I live till the age of 98 "

. (No offense meant your Duchessness

, I'll gladly serve as a traitorous peon anyday

).

Others go on about how we''ll be lucky to have cities and any society, when even the most pessimistic claims are normally Industrial age drop-off. (Mid 19-early 20th Century era).