Republican Florida Primary AKA Giuliani's end?

[Guardsman Bass]

If anyone in America hasn't been watching any of the major television networks, the Florida Primary for the Republicans (which actually does count) is happening right now.

Right now, it's too close to call, at least according to MSNBC.

MIAMI - John McCain and Mitt Romney were locked in a hard-fought Florida primary that was too close to call Tuesday, as they sought campaign momentum before the race for the Republican presidential nomination turns into a nationwide delegate struggle on Feb. 5.

As the polls closed at 5 p.m. EST, the first returns — from 20 percent of the state's 6,913 precincts — showed McCain with 34 percent and Romney with 31 percent, The Associated Press reported. Rudy Giuliani and Mike Huckabee were running far behind, struggling for survival.

The winner stood to gain all 57 national convention delegates at stake, the biggest prize so far in an early round of primaries and caucuses.

Heavy turnout was reported by state election officials. A survey of voters as they left their polling places showed the economy was the top issue for nearly half the Republican electorate. Terrorism, the war in Iraq and immigration followed in importance. Not surprisingly in a state that is a magnet for retirees, more than one-third of the voters were 65 or older.

The poll was conducted by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International for NBC News, the other television networks and The Associated Press.

No delegates at stake for Democrats
In the Democrats' primary — a nonbinding contest in which no delegates were at stake — NBC News projected that Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton would finish more votes than her rivals. Sen. Barack Obama was projected to finish second, with John Edwards third.

The Democratic primary was controversial by its very existence, held earlier in the year than national party officials had wanted. That made it a popularity contest with no delegates awarded on the basis of the outcome.

All the Democratic candidates agreed in advance not to campaign in the state. Clinton, who was routed in the South Carolina primary last weekend, repeatedly sought to draw attention to an event she expected to win. Without success, she challenged her rivals to agree to heed the results when it came time to seat delegates at next summer's Democratic National Convention.

Romney began the evening with 59 Republican delegates, to 36 for McCain and 40 for Huckabee. Giuliani had one.

Poor Giuliani. He's clinging on to something like 16-17% of the vote out of what's been counted so far - meaning that his vaunted bulwark in Florida that he kept bragging is showing a couple of leaks. I'm actually kind of surprised; there was a lot of absentee voting for the Republicans before today, and I thought Giuliani would get more of a boost from those guys, since they started voting early before McCain and Romney started hitting in full force.

[Guardsman Bass]

Was anybody watching Fox News when Hillary gave her "victory" speech? At least according to The Times UK US election Blog, Faux News actually took a commercial break in the middle of her speech.

[CaptJodan]

CNN says it's McCain.

[Guardsman Bass]

So CNN actually called it? MSNBC seems to be holding of - waita minute, they just called it for McCain! That was pretty hilarious; Olbermann had the NBC Political Director talking about why they hadn't called it when in the middle of his spiel, MSNBC called it!

[Guardsman Bass]

Come on, Huckabee - pass Giuliani!

[Havok]

So, where does this put McCain?

[Guardsman Bass]

If the media is to be believed, this type of bump just before the February 5th Super Tuesday primaries will rapidly increase McCain's funds from donations while give him enough push to win in closed Republican primaries.

That last part is probably one of the more important pieces of information. There was some worry that McCain wouldn't be able to really win in a closed Republican primary (where only registered Republicans can vote) because he usually depends heavily on independents to give him a bump to victory.

[RedImperator]

So, where does this put McCain?

In the catbird seat. A solid win on Super Tuesday, and he runs the table afterwards.

[Guardsman Bass]

Incidently, Giuliani just got cut off in the middle of his speech by the Big Three networks so that Romney could speak.

[Guardsman Bass]

So, where does this put McCain?

In the catbird seat. A solid win on Super Tuesday, and he runs the table afterwards.

Although from a strategic standpoint I'd rather not have McCain take the Republican nomination (since he seems to be the most competitive in the Republican field, and I'm a Democrat), I would definitely love to see the look on Rush Limbaugh's face if McCain takes the nomination (Limbaugh said that nominating McCain would destroy the Republican Party).

[FSTargetDrone]

Now MSNBC is saying Guliani may drop out and make an endorsement for McCain tomorrow.

[Noble Ire]

So much for Giuliani's daring campaign strategy. Seeing his candidacy collapse is quite satisfying, but I'm still surprised that he did just as badly as he evidently has done considering the amount of money and effort he put into Florida. National momentum, or lack there of, is truly a force to be reckoned with.

Although from a strategic standpoint I'd rather not have McCain take the Republican nomination (since he seems to be the most competitive in the Republican field, and I'm a Democrat), I would definitely love to see the look on Rush Limbaugh's face if McCain takes the nomination (Limbaugh said that nominating McCain would destroy the Republican Party).

I'm conflicted as well. I'd vastly prefer to see a democratic presidential-elect, and McCain might well be a sizeable threat to that prospect, but it would also be nice to have a general election lacking a participant who is genuinely revolting for once.

[FSTargetDrone]

MSNBC has confirmed that Giuliani will endorse McCain on Wednesday (from the Regan Library!):

NBC News and news services
updated 2 minutes ago

MIAMI - Sen. John McCain won Florida's Republican primary on Tuesday, driving Rudy Giuliani from the race and taking a critical victory over Mitt Romney in the battle for momentum before the race for the GOP presidential nomination turns to Super Tuesday.

NBC News and National Journal said Tuesday night that Giuliani would endorse McCain on Wednesday in California.

NBC news analyst Howard Fineman reported that sources told him the two campaigns were negotiating details of the deal.

With about two-thirds of the state's 6,913 precincts reporting, McCain had 36 percent of the vote, and Romney had 31 percent. Giuliani was third and Mike Huckabee fourth.

McCain solidified his status as the front-runner for the GOP nomination, his candidacy having come full circle in little more than a year.

[RedImperator]

So, where does this put McCain?

In the catbird seat. A solid win on Super Tuesday, and he runs the table afterwards.

Although from a strategic standpoint I'd rather not have McCain take the Republican nomination (since he seems to be the most competitive in the Republican field, and I'm a Democrat), I would definitely love to see the look on Rush Limbaugh's face if McCain takes the nomination (Limbaugh said that nominating McCain would destroy the Republican Party).

To hell with strategic voting. If the Democrats somehow manage to blow this election (*cough*Hillary*cough*), I'd prefer the next president of the United States not be an empty suit or terrifying theocrat.

[Darth Wong]

So much for Giuliani's daring campaign strategy. Seeing his candidacy collapse is quite satisfying, but I'm still surprised that he did just as badly as he evidently has done considering the amount of money and effort he put into Florida. National momentum, or lack there of, is truly a force to be reckoned with.

Is it "momentum", or is it the the fact that the media follows the clump of leading politicians around through the early primaries, so they all get tons of media exposure while people who eschew the early primaries become invisible? Ghouliani looks like a weirdo standing outside on the street ranting at the people inside, because that's pretty much what he's become. He hasn't really participated in the election campaign so far, and there's been a fuckton of coverage, all of it about people other than him.

[Guardsman Bass]

I'm with you on this one, Noble Ire. I'm glad that Rudy Giuliani's candidacy collapsed; the guy, while a crimefighter in New York, also clearly had strong authoritarian tendencies.

At the same time, I almost feel kind of sad for his campaign. When Fred Thompson's campaign finally collapsed, it was probably a relief; he'd been an enormous disappointment (he was the guy who was supposed to be the Second Coming of Ronald Reagan last summer)in terms of his campaign performance (although at least he tried to be more specific in what he wanted to do in terms of policy), and the finishing blow of South Carolina had been long expected.

Giuliani, on the other hand, kept holding off, holding off, bragging about how he'd launch the late strike in the big states - and then suddenly, he was a goner just before the Florida Primary. The New York Times reported that the day before the primary, when he rented a jet to do fly around airport stops, not even 100 people showed up at his most crowded gathering. On top of that, he somehow burned through nearly $60 million in campaign cash. It's almost maddeningly anti-climactic.

[Guardsman Bass]

So much for Giuliani's daring campaign strategy. Seeing his candidacy collapse is quite satisfying, but I'm still surprised that he did just as badly as he evidently has done considering the amount of money and effort he put into Florida. National momentum, or lack there of, is truly a force to be reckoned with.

Is it "momentum", or is it the the fact that the media follows the clump of leading politicians around through the early primaries, so they all get tons of media exposure while people who eschew the early primaries become invisible? Ghouliani looks like a weirdo standing outside on the street ranting at the people inside, because that's pretty much what he's become. He hasn't really participated in the election campaign so far, and there's been a fuckton of coverage, all of it about people other than him.

I think it's more surprising that he suddenly just disintegrated in the last two weeks before the Florida Primary, although, as you said, you can't ignore the influence of the media's focus on the early nomination-fighters. I mean, the guy didn't even get a lot of the early votes (before the media along with the Big Two from the Republican side descended on Florida after South Carolina). You'd think the Floridians would go for someone who actually made the amount of time and money investments that Giuliani made in the state for his campaign.

[Noble Ire]

So much for Giuliani's daring campaign strategy. Seeing his candidacy collapse is quite satisfying, but I'm still surprised that he did just as badly as he evidently has done considering the amount of money and effort he put into Florida. National momentum, or lack there of, is truly a force to be reckoned with.

Is it "momentum", or is it the the fact that the media follows the clump of leading politicians around through the early primaries, so they all get tons of media exposure while people who eschew the early primaries become invisible? Ghouliani looks like a weirdo standing outside on the street ranting at the people inside, because that's pretty much what he's become. He hasn't really participated in the election campaign so far, and there's been a fuckton of coverage, all of it about people other than him.

Media attention is part of what political momentum in America is, I suppose. It shouldn't be that way, but a large proportion of US voters are more inclined to vote for a candidate because of the frequency they see their faces and hear their names on news soundbites than because of actual policy differences.

Still, I expected Giuliani's plastering of the state to yield more results, in spite of his distance from the headlines. I can only imagine how much money he poured into TV ads and the like in Florida.

[Darth Wong]

Still, I expected Giuliani's plastering of the state to yield more results, in spite of his distance from the headlines. I can only imagine how much money he poured into TV ads and the like in Florida.

While this may have been a personal catastrophe for Giuliani (as if I care), it has been potentially very enlightening in terms of the way American politics works. It would appear that regional advertising can push someone over the top if it's close, but it still pales in importance compared to news media exposure.

[Guardsman Bass]

So much for Giuliani's daring campaign strategy. Seeing his candidacy collapse is quite satisfying, but I'm still surprised that he did just as badly as he evidently has done considering the amount of money and effort he put into Florida. National momentum, or lack there of, is truly a force to be reckoned with.

Is it "momentum", or is it the the fact that the media follows the clump of leading politicians around through the early primaries, so they all get tons of media exposure while people who eschew the early primaries become invisible? Ghouliani looks like a weirdo standing outside on the street ranting at the people inside, because that's pretty much what he's become. He hasn't really participated in the election campaign so far, and there's been a fuckton of coverage, all of it about people other than him.

Media attention is part of what political momentum in America is, I suppose. It shouldn't be that way, but a large proportion of US voters are more inclined to vote for a candidate because of the frequency they see their faces and hear their names on news soundbites than because of actual policy differences.

I'm wondering, though, if the media was exceptionally powerful in either helping or hurting the candidates this year. I remember reading an article in the New York Times a good while back about how the Primary Race is drawing higher viewership than normal - not simply because it's a competitive race, but also, indirectly, because of the Writers' strike crippling a bunch of television programs.

Still, I expected Giuliani's plastering of the state to yield more results, in spite of his distance from the headlines. I can only imagine how much money he poured into TV ads and the like in Florida.

Tens of millions, at least. He's burned through at least $55 million of the $62 million campaign funds that he reportedly raised, although to be fair, not all of that was on Florida (he wasted a good $2-3 million in New Hampshire before running away). If his campaign finances for 2007 still get released on January 31 along with everybody else in the race in spite of his dropping out, then we'll know for sure.

[Guardsman Bass]

Still, I expected Giuliani's plastering of the state to yield more results, in spite of his distance from the headlines. I can only imagine how much money he poured into TV ads and the like in Florida.

While this may have been a personal catastrophe for Giuliani (as if I care), it has been potentially very enlightening in terms of the way American politics works. It would appear that regional advertising can push someone over the top if it's close, but it still pales in importance compared to news media exposure.

I wonder if that's a good or bad thing. McCain certainly benefited from heavy (and mostly positive) media attention after New Hampshire.

[Skylon]

Still, I expected Giuliani's plastering of the state to yield more results, in spite of his distance from the headlines. I can only imagine how much money he poured into TV ads and the like in Florida.

While this may have been a personal catastrophe for Giuliani (as if I care), it has been potentially very enlightening in terms of the way American politics works. It would appear that regional advertising can push someone over the top if it's close, but it still pales in importance compared to news media exposure.

Something of a double edge. On one hand, it shows Americans vote for the face on the TV. On the other hand, it shows Americans want their candidates to put themselves on the field. He just looked like a man standing still, overconfident of victory.

Personally, I am not exactly doing backflips that McCain is doing well (I would have, if this was the year 2000)...but, I am enjoying how scared shitless the far right wing pundits are of a McCain victory. I barely hear them mention Hillary accept to say "Gasp! McCain agreed With Hillary on this!" or "McCain joked with Hillary! He must be an EVIL LIBERAL!"[/i]

[SirNitram]

I hope McCain gets it. He went with matching funds. This means that there's a limited amount of money he can spend.. A limit the Democrat won't have to play by unless Edwards pulls a rabbit out of the hat before the convention.

Worse, the fund from which those funds are drawn is currently empty, and will remain so until the tax returns are done. He appears to be broke, and now courting K-Street... The Lobbyists he claimed were a big problem.

I do love the self-imposed pain of the modern GOP.

[Guardsman Bass]

I hope McCain gets it. He went with matching funds. This means that there's a limited amount of money he can spend.. A limit the Democrat won't have to play by unless Edwards pulls a rabbit out of the hat before the convention.

He's trying to back out of the Federal financing system. Here's to hoping it won't get him until AFTER he dispatches Mitt Romney (assuming that he does).

Worse, the fund from which those funds are drawn is currently empty, and will remain so until the tax returns are done. He appears to be broke, and now courting K-Street... The Lobbyists he claimed were a big problem.

I do love the self-imposed pain of the modern GOP.

It is definitely nice to be the better financed side this time, after 8 years of Bush's titanic fundraising (although I think Kerry ultimately raised more, but too late to save his campaign in 2004).

[CaptainChewbacca]

Anyone think Giuliani could get tacked onto a McCain ticket if he's throwing his support in before Super Tuesday?