Tajikistan - energy and food crisis, welcome stone age...

N&P: Discuss governments, nations, politics and recent related news here.

Moderators: Alyrium Denryle, Edi, K. A. Pital

Post Reply
User avatar
K. A. Pital
Glamorous Commie
Posts: 20813
Joined: 2003-02-26 11:39am
Location: Elysium

Tajikistan - energy and food crisis, welcome stone age...

Post by K. A. Pital »

BBC
By Natalia Antelava
BBC News, Dushanbe
Image
Children carrying containers of water
For some Tajik families, drinking water can only be fetched on foot
Tajikistan is well-versed in hardship, but this winter has been too much.

Millions of people here are trying to survive without heat, water or electricity in temperatures that stay well below zero.

In a freezing maternity ward, outside the capital Dushanbe, nurses and doctors scurry as Unicef, accompanied by health ministry officials, deliver emergency supplies of extra blankets and small gas heaters.

One of the officials is quick to assure me that all the hospital needs are being met, and the situation is under full control.

But in a quiet room, a few feet away, nurses speak of their worries.

"It's horrible," one of them says as she wraps a newborn baby girl in several layers of blankets.

The maternity ward, she explains, has no heating, and only a limited electricity supply.

"We are terrified that this will become worse, we have children here who are sick, who need special attention. We need electricity," she adds.

She lays the baby down and gently slips a bottle of hot water next to her.

It is the best heating method they have, but it does not always work.

Power failures

In the past few weeks, a number of babies are reported to have died in hospitals across the country, although no-one knows how many.

Image
Many Tajiks are struggling to survive without basic utilities

There is no official data, because the government says the deaths are not related to the energy crisis.

But aid workers disagree.

"There have been deaths prompted by the cold weather and power failures, but all these reports are anecdotal.

"Unfortunately there are no official reports about these deaths," says Sobir Kurbonov, a Unicef health worker.

Some international aid workers suggest that the general lack of transparency has made it very difficult to estimate the scale of the problem.

But now, there is no longer any doubt that Tajikistan could face a serious humanitarian crisis.

On Wednesday, the Tajik government appealed for emergency aid and together with international donors it is now designing an action plan aimed at easing the situation.

Frozen rivers

The crisis has already gone far beyond power supplies, affecting every sphere of this impoverished and fragile society.

Humanitarian agencies say hundreds of thousands of people are suffering from severe food shortages.

"People are spending all they have on trying to keep warm, and they don't have enough money to buy food," says Zlatan Milisic, the country director for the UN's World Food Programme.

And things are likely to get worse before they get better.

With rivers frozen, the country's hydropower stations continue to slow down.

Nurek, the main plant, is losing its reservoir of water.

Set high up in the mountains and surrounded by snow-covered peaks, Nurek is like a giant bathtub that has been unplugged.

Energy experts predict that within days the water will reach the critical level, and the whole country could shut down.

'Harder and harder'

The government's mammoth task is to keep Tajikistan away from slipping into a stone age.

But some believe its too late for that.

"This country has no future," says Ermokhmad, an intelligent, soft-spoken man, who lives in the outskirts of the capital.

Woman and baby in hospital
Aid workers say babies have died because of the cold
"Is this what you call life?" he asks as he shows me around his house.

The tour is quick. To keep warm, all 10 members of his family live in one room.

It's lit by a bleak kerosene lamp; they do not remember the last time they saw electricity.

The air is heavy and full of smoke. In the corner, Ermokhmad's four children, their heads buried in school textbooks, are sitting on the floor next to the crackling woodstove.

Gurgling on top of it is their dinner - rice porridge.

Ermokhmad has a long list of complaints, and an even longer list of questions.

Why is it, he asks, that his children have to walk for an hour every day to get to the nearest school? Why is every winter more and more difficult for him and his neighbours? Why have prices gone up so much?

He does not seem to have many answers, but he does have a solution.

"I will go to Russia," he says.

That is what hundreds of thousands of Tajiks have already done.

"Soon there will be no young people left here - just elderly and women. Everyone is going away. I want to save money for the ticket to Russia, so that I can feed my family from there," Ermokhmad says.

A few minutes later, as he expands on his plans, he jokes that he may even marry a Russian woman. His own, Tajik, wife does not seem excited about the prospect. Yet she is willing to let him go.

"We have to eat," she says.
The happy daily life of the post-Soviet "liberated" republics, duh. And the source of new engine of growth for the Russian economy - the migrant workforce which is often used as not just illegal labour, but outright slaves.

As for the food crisis, a related article: BBC
Exc wrote:The cost of food has tripled in recent months, partially because of rising world prices.
Lì ci sono chiese, macerie, moschee e questure, lì frontiere, prezzi inaccessibile e freddure
Lì paludi, minacce, cecchini coi fucili, documenti, file notturne e clandestini
Qui incontri, lotte, passi sincronizzati, colori, capannelli non autorizzati,
Uccelli migratori, reti, informazioni, piazze di Tutti i like pazze di passioni...

...La tranquillità è importante ma la libertà è tutto!
Assalti Frontali
User avatar
Guardsman Bass
Cowardly Codfish
Posts: 9281
Joined: 2002-07-07 12:01am
Location: Beneath the Deepest Sea

Post by Guardsman Bass »

A victim of the increasing speculation and demand for biofuels, no doubt. You get a cookie for predicting something like this way back in the thread where you got in the big tussle with Master of Ossus over food production. :D

On the horrible but mildly bright side, could enough Tajiks flood into Russia to slow down the demographic crisis in your country?
“It is possible to commit no mistakes and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life.”
-Jean-Luc Picard


"Men are afraid that women will laugh at them. Women are afraid that men will kill them."
-Margaret Atwood
User avatar
K. A. Pital
Glamorous Commie
Posts: 20813
Joined: 2003-02-26 11:39am
Location: Elysium

Post by K. A. Pital »

On the horrible but mildly bright side, could enough Tajiks flood into Russia to slow down the demographic crisis in your country?
Of course there could be an even greater influx from Central Asia as it turns into a complete hellhole... however, Russia would end up in a bad situation - the migrants would be almost all illegals, used as the cheapest possible workforce, "declassified elements" - and treated as dirt. Ripe potential for ethnic conflict and class war right there. If France is any indicator... Russia is no longer strongly assimilating other cultures, it's too weak for such assimilatory policies, and especially weak to run them with success. So there's bad stuff down the road, sadly.
Lì ci sono chiese, macerie, moschee e questure, lì frontiere, prezzi inaccessibile e freddure
Lì paludi, minacce, cecchini coi fucili, documenti, file notturne e clandestini
Qui incontri, lotte, passi sincronizzati, colori, capannelli non autorizzati,
Uccelli migratori, reti, informazioni, piazze di Tutti i like pazze di passioni...

...La tranquillità è importante ma la libertà è tutto!
Assalti Frontali
User avatar
Fingolfin_Noldor
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 11834
Joined: 2006-05-15 10:36am
Location: At the Helm of the HAB Star Dreadnaught Star Fist

Post by Fingolfin_Noldor »

The Irony of things when the "Great Iron Curtain" came down, which was, in the West's opinion, supposed to be a great herald for peace and prosperity.

My ass.
Image
STGOD: Byzantine Empire
Your spirit, diseased as it is, refuses to allow you to give up, no matter what threats you face... and whatever wreckage you leave behind you.
Kreia
User avatar
Sea Skimmer
Yankee Capitalist Air Pirate
Posts: 37390
Joined: 2002-07-03 11:49pm
Location: Passchendaele City, HAB

Post by Sea Skimmer »

An awful lot of people predicted in the early 1990s that the 30 years after the fall of the Berlin wall would be more uncertain, unstable and violent then the preceding 30 years when the duel of the superpowers sort of kept a lid on things. I’m not really surprised its coming true.
"This cult of special forces is as sensible as to form a Royal Corps of Tree Climbers and say that no soldier who does not wear its green hat with a bunch of oak leaves stuck in it should be expected to climb a tree"
— Field Marshal William Slim 1956
User avatar
Vympel
Spetsnaz
Spetsnaz
Posts: 29312
Joined: 2002-07-19 01:08am
Location: Sydney Australia

Post by Vympel »

I won't be surprised if 30 years from now, the territory of the USSR has largely been reassembled in another form, under Russian dominion, as always. It seems to be the natural order of things (minus the Baltic States and the west of Ukraine ...)
Like Legend of Galactic Heroes? Please contribute to http://gineipaedia.com/
User avatar
Illuminatus Primus
All Seeing Eye
Posts: 15774
Joined: 2002-10-12 02:52pm
Location: Gainesville, Florida, USA
Contact:

Post by Illuminatus Primus »

Natural order of things...unless Russia is weak. On the contrary, an appropriate scale of historical analysis could feature the rise of a stronger Iran and its dominance of Central Asia, a stronger power or bloc in Eastern Europe, and most likely of all - a resurgence by Far East Asia in the PRC and Japan which could in the future erode Russian dominion in the Far East and in Central Asia.
"You know what the problem with Hollywood is. They make shit. Unbelievable. Unremarkable. Shit." - Gabriel Shear, Swordfish

"This statement, in its utterly clueless hubristic stupidity, cannot be improved upon. I merely quote it in admiration of its perfection." - Garibaldi in reply to an incredibly stupid post.

The Fifth Illuminatus Primus | Warsie | Skeptical Empiricist | Florida Gator | Sustainability Advocate | Libertarian Socialist |
Image
User avatar
Kane Starkiller
Jedi Council Member
Posts: 1510
Joined: 2005-01-21 01:39pm

Post by Kane Starkiller »

Yes I don't see how anyone's dominance is "natural". Either you have the muscle or you don't. Central Asia won't be coming back under Russian rule naturally any more than Australia will come back under British rule.
China seems far more likely to move in given it's huge economy and growth.
But if the forces of evil should rise again, to cast a shadow on the heart of the city.
Call me. -Batman
User avatar
Vympel
Spetsnaz
Spetsnaz
Posts: 29312
Joined: 2002-07-19 01:08am
Location: Sydney Australia

Post by Vympel »


Natural order of things...unless Russia is weak. On the contrary, an appropriate scale of historical analysis could feature the rise of a stronger Iran and its dominance of Central Asia
I find that ludicrous in the conceivable future. What tools does it have at its disposal to dominate Central Asia?
a stronger power or bloc in Eastern Europe
Like who?
and most likely of all - a resurgence by Far East Asia in the PRC and Japan which could in the future erode Russian dominion in the Far East and in Central Asia.
How could they possibly "erode Russian dominion in the Far East"? The Far East is part of the Russian Federation proper. That's like saying a resurgent Mexico could erode American dominion of Texas and California. It's nigh nonsensical. Any attempt to erode Russia's natural borders would be deemed a hostile act, and neither China nor Japan would be so insane as to provoke that.
Last edited by Vympel on 2008-02-12 08:36am, edited 1 time in total.
Like Legend of Galactic Heroes? Please contribute to http://gineipaedia.com/
User avatar
Vympel
Spetsnaz
Spetsnaz
Posts: 29312
Joined: 2002-07-19 01:08am
Location: Sydney Australia

Post by Vympel »

Kane Starkiller wrote: China seems far more likely to move in given it's huge economy and growth.
A big economy and growth doesn't somehow translate into a natural sphere of influence (that exists from years of outright domination) that can be exploited to bring a country under one's wing, even more so than it already is.
Like Legend of Galactic Heroes? Please contribute to http://gineipaedia.com/
User avatar
Kane Starkiller
Jedi Council Member
Posts: 1510
Joined: 2005-01-21 01:39pm

Post by Kane Starkiller »

Vympel wrote:A big economy and growth doesn't somehow translate into a natural sphere of influence (that exists from years of outright domination) that can be exploited to bring a country under one's wing, even more so than it already is.
This is why China will try to dominate the Central Asia. And since the trade between them and China is booming at the expense of Russia that will become increasingly easier as China's economy rises and Russia's population drops.
Witness the Shanghai Cooperation Organization which already institutionalizes growing links between China and Central Asia.
But if the forces of evil should rise again, to cast a shadow on the heart of the city.
Call me. -Batman
User avatar
Vympel
Spetsnaz
Spetsnaz
Posts: 29312
Joined: 2002-07-19 01:08am
Location: Sydney Australia

Post by Vympel »

Kane Starkiller wrote: This is why China will try to dominate the Central Asia.
I never said China wouldn't try. However, its chances aren't particularly good, IMO. Better than those of the US, anyway, which has been soundly dacked in the great game for the past few years.
And since the trade between them and China is booming at the expense of Russia that will become increasingly easier as China's economy rises and Russia's population drops.
I don't see what Russia's population has to do with the issue (given that Russia's economy has grown in leaps and bounds at the same time the population has been undergoing a decline) - heck, Tajikistan is apparently supported, to a ridiculously large degree, by Tajik migrant workers in Russia sending money back home (note the article).

After all, where else are they going to go? The desolate wasteland that is China's west (or anywhere that isn't the coast, really).
Witness the Shanghai Cooperation Organization which already institutionalizes growing links between China and Central Asia.
Russia's a member of that too, precisely to check Chinese influence.
Like Legend of Galactic Heroes? Please contribute to http://gineipaedia.com/
User avatar
K. A. Pital
Glamorous Commie
Posts: 20813
Joined: 2003-02-26 11:39am
Location: Elysium

Post by K. A. Pital »

Tajikistan is apparently supported, to a ridiculously large degree, by Tajik migrant workers in Russia sending money back home
Indeed. Without this informal capital inflow into Tajikistan, it would've been an even worse hellhole than it has become today.

And let us not forget (looking into the proposed Iran option) that Islamists have already tried to take control in Tajikistan - after the USSR collapsed, democrats and jihadis, with Afghan and Al-Quaeda support, fought against communists and pro-Russian forces in a bloody civil war that wrecked the nation. The islamists lost.

And with the current grain prices shit going on, Tajikistan is more than even dependent - no, not on China, but on Russia and Kazakhstan, main grain producers in the region - to do something about the soaring food prices, since they literally garrot people in their domestic market.
Lì ci sono chiese, macerie, moschee e questure, lì frontiere, prezzi inaccessibile e freddure
Lì paludi, minacce, cecchini coi fucili, documenti, file notturne e clandestini
Qui incontri, lotte, passi sincronizzati, colori, capannelli non autorizzati,
Uccelli migratori, reti, informazioni, piazze di Tutti i like pazze di passioni...

...La tranquillità è importante ma la libertà è tutto!
Assalti Frontali
User avatar
Sidewinder
Sith Acolyte
Posts: 5466
Joined: 2005-05-18 10:23pm
Location: Feasting on those who fell in battle
Contact:

Post by Sidewinder »

Tajikistan is going back to the stone age? The Islamists are probably cheering on-- no electricity means no radio, movies, TV, or internet to spread western ideas, e.g., that women are human beings instead of chattel.
Wikipedia wrote:Russian troops were stationed in southern Tajikistan, in order to guard the border with Afghanistan, until summer 2005. Since the September 11, 2001, attacks, American, Indian and French troops have also been stationed in the country.
I wonder if these nations are willing to provide financial and humanitarian aid to Tajikistan? At the very least, they have nothing to gain from letting the Islamists take power there.
Please do not make Americans fight giant monsters.

Those gun nuts do not understand the meaning of "overkill," and will simply use weapon after weapon of mass destruction (WMD) until the monster is dead, or until they run out of weapons.

They have more WMD than there are monsters for us to fight. (More insanity here.)
User avatar
CaptainChewbacca
Browncoat Wookiee
Posts: 15746
Joined: 2003-05-06 02:36am
Location: Deep beneath Boatmurdered.

Post by CaptainChewbacca »

A friend of mine is currently on an agricultural mission in Tajikistan to help them with topsoil issues and teaching them effective farming practices they can actually use. I hope they're ok.
Stuart: The only problem is, I'm losing track of which universe I'm in.
You kinda look like Jesus. With a lightsaber.- Peregrin Toker
ImageImage
User avatar
K. A. Pital
Glamorous Commie
Posts: 20813
Joined: 2003-02-26 11:39am
Location: Elysium

Post by K. A. Pital »

Sidewinder wrote:The Islamists are probably cheering on
Most of them are, well, either dead or displaced (note the massive civil war I mentioned), but a new breed of "creep islam" spreads through the youth in Central Asia's impoverished regions (most notably Turkmenistan, but that could very well spread to Tajikistan too). But the source of their support in the early 90s, Al-Quaeda and Afghani insurgent groups, aren't quite having their best days in Afghanistan now, and thus their threat is (relatively) diminished from Civil War times.

As for aid, there already are massive amounts of aid poured into Tajikistan.

Also, there's not only no power but no food as well, since Tajikistan fell prey to hyperinflation of food prices. People choose between starving and freezing... so if there'll be conflicts and protests, don't be surprised.
Lì ci sono chiese, macerie, moschee e questure, lì frontiere, prezzi inaccessibile e freddure
Lì paludi, minacce, cecchini coi fucili, documenti, file notturne e clandestini
Qui incontri, lotte, passi sincronizzati, colori, capannelli non autorizzati,
Uccelli migratori, reti, informazioni, piazze di Tutti i like pazze di passioni...

...La tranquillità è importante ma la libertà è tutto!
Assalti Frontali
User avatar
K. A. Pital
Glamorous Commie
Posts: 20813
Joined: 2003-02-26 11:39am
Location: Elysium

Post by K. A. Pital »

And somewhere - not far - across the world, another food crisis unfolds:
South Asia hit by food shortages
Lì ci sono chiese, macerie, moschee e questure, lì frontiere, prezzi inaccessibile e freddure
Lì paludi, minacce, cecchini coi fucili, documenti, file notturne e clandestini
Qui incontri, lotte, passi sincronizzati, colori, capannelli non autorizzati,
Uccelli migratori, reti, informazioni, piazze di Tutti i like pazze di passioni...

...La tranquillità è importante ma la libertà è tutto!
Assalti Frontali
User avatar
Dartzap
Sith Acolyte
Posts: 5969
Joined: 2002-09-05 09:56am
Location: Britain, Britain, Britain: Land Of Rain
Contact:

Post by Dartzap »

It'll start hitting us soon enough, I suspect. We import vastly too much food. Time to press gang people and chain 'em to the ploughs.....
EBC: Northeners, Huh! What are they good for?! Absolutely nothing! :P

Cybertron, Justice league...MM, HAB SDN City Watch: Sergeant Detritus

Days Unstabbed, Unabused, Unassualted and Unwavedatwithabutchersknife: 0
User avatar
K. A. Pital
Glamorous Commie
Posts: 20813
Joined: 2003-02-26 11:39am
Location: Elysium

Post by K. A. Pital »

Well, at least we got praised by Greenspan...
Russia Extends Deal To Curb Food Price Rises To May 1
Speaking at an international business forum in Moscow on Wednesday, former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan expressed "concern" over the inflation problem but also praised Russia's economic leadership.
Hehehe. I guess that's a big achievement of our leadership that half the country is now spending most of their money on food. Still better than Tajiks, but we're a leading grain producer and we shouldn't be having this shit happening at all.

The First World isn't that much at harm though. You have "fat moneys" to cut down before you get hungry and die. Even we do. However, some of our former comrades already don't and the shit is coming our way fast.

I need to keep a track of FAO figures for caloric intakes. In a few years we'll see how good our policy fares.
Lì ci sono chiese, macerie, moschee e questure, lì frontiere, prezzi inaccessibile e freddure
Lì paludi, minacce, cecchini coi fucili, documenti, file notturne e clandestini
Qui incontri, lotte, passi sincronizzati, colori, capannelli non autorizzati,
Uccelli migratori, reti, informazioni, piazze di Tutti i like pazze di passioni...

...La tranquillità è importante ma la libertà è tutto!
Assalti Frontali
Pelranius
Sith Marauder
Posts: 3539
Joined: 2006-10-24 11:35am
Location: Around and about the Beltway

Post by Pelranius »

Russia and China will probably both be too busy with other problems to take an interest in actively dominating Central Asia (China isn't going to complain as long as they get to trade, and the Russians probably don't have much of a use for imperial enterprises, after all, what's in it for them to rule Tajikistan?)
Turns out that a five way cross over between It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia, the Ali G Show, Fargo, Idiocracy and Veep is a lot less funny when you're actually living in it.
User avatar
Fingolfin_Noldor
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 11834
Joined: 2006-05-15 10:36am
Location: At the Helm of the HAB Star Dreadnaught Star Fist

Post by Fingolfin_Noldor »

Pelranius wrote:Russia and China will probably both be too busy with other problems to take an interest in actively dominating Central Asia (China isn't going to complain as long as they get to trade, and the Russians probably don't have much of a use for imperial enterprises, after all, what's in it for them to rule Tajikistan?)
Well, when the US tried to set up outposts in their backyard, both sides took notice. They regard those countries as their own backyard and don't want anyone to mess with them.
Image
STGOD: Byzantine Empire
Your spirit, diseased as it is, refuses to allow you to give up, no matter what threats you face... and whatever wreckage you leave behind you.
Kreia
User avatar
Stuart Mackey
Drunken Kiwi Editor of the ASVS Press
Posts: 5946
Joined: 2002-07-04 12:28am
Location: New Zealand
Contact:

Post by Stuart Mackey »

Dartzap wrote:It'll start hitting us soon enough, I suspect. We import vastly too much food. Time to press gang people and chain 'em to the ploughs.....
No no, NZ is the farm, remember the last war? All you need to do is get rid of the quota
Via money Europe could become political in five years" "... the current communities should be completed by a Finance Common Market which would lead us to European economic unity. Only then would ... the mutual commitments make it fairly easy to produce the political union which is the goal"

Jean Omer Marie Gabriel Monnet
--------------
Post Reply