Clinton Banks On Superdelegates

[Teebs]

If the current situation continues it simply won't happen. The superdelegates aren't insane and the majority of them haven't even made any commitment yet.

A more worrying idea in my opinion is that she might try to get the Michigan and Florida delegates seated which would benefit her quite a lot. If that happens then it might be close enough for the superdelegates to swing the decision.

[brianeyci]

That's true Teebs. The supers who are pledged are the die hards. The ones who are not... why the hell aren't they? There's only one real reason. Because they don't want to be seen as the spoiler, so they held their vote.

I don't know enough about the democratic insider politics to say for sure, but given what other people have said (SirNitram about the makeup of the supers) those 405 guys are probably not going to split 60 Clinton 40 Obama. They will wait to see who wins the popular vote, then throw their lot in with whoever does... probably Obama.

In summary I can't imagine anything Hillary doing changing the leftover super's minds. If they have held their vote for this long they will hold all the way to the end, to see who wins (since that's the only reason you wait until the end.) Unless I am missing something drastic.

[General Zod]

That's true Teebs. The supers who are pledged are the die hards. The ones who are not... why the hell aren't they? There's only one real reason. Because they don't want to be seen as the spoiler, so they held their vote.

What? Super delegates are unpledged by definition, and endorsing a candidate does not guarantee the super-delegate will pledge their vote a candidate since they're free to change their mind until the Democratic Convention. Only regular delegates are bound to pledge their vote to the candidate they've announced their preference for.

[Flagg]

If you have this freaky concept of a "Superdelegate" I cannot fault Clinton by trying to get as much of those as possible. She's correctly acting within the bounds of this crazy process. Might not be the best thing, but this is like crying over spilt milk. Someone should have thought about this before they were inventing this concept...

They created the super-delegates for a specific purpose. That purpose is to stop the grassroots people from voting in someone who is unelectable in the general election. Which is a good political strategist move.

It has the side effect of pissing off the grassroots, though. Especially if it's close. Plus, I think you can make the argument that Hillary is the unelectable one.

[Flagg]

Remember what I said? Hell I even had a nightmare scenario I posted some weeks ago Here where Hillary breaks the Democratic Party via just this method.

If she does this, McCain can win and win easily. He simply has to stand up and say I refuse to debate Hillary, you stole the nomination and break the party.

That would blow up in his face, big time. What right does he have to criticize the internal mechanisms of another party as long as they are within the law? I didn't see anyone refusing to debate Bush after "stealing" the nomination from McCain in 2000 by spreading the lie that he had a black baby. I didnt see Kerry refusing to debate Bush because he stole the Presidency from Al Gore.

It's a bad political move that just pisses off the opposition party and makes you look like a bitch.

[brianeyci]

That's true Teebs. The supers who are pledged are the die hards. The ones who are not... why the hell aren't they? There's only one real reason. Because they don't want to be seen as the spoiler, so they held their vote.

What? Super delegates are unpledged by definition, and endorsing a candidate does not guarantee the super-delegate will pledge their vote a candidate since they're free to change their mind until the Democratic Convention. Only regular delegates are bound to pledge their vote to the candidate they've announced their preference for.

When I said pledged I meant those who have their vote in the Obama or Clinton camp for now. Just like pledged delegates.

Of course you knew this but decided to semantic whore pledged for some reason, even though there's plenty of definitions of pledged besides "pledged delegate." All the posts previous to this said supers can change their minds -- you don't think I know that? But the list CNN has up is 157 Obama and 234 Clinton and they wouldn't put that shit up unless it was reliable. Obama and Clinton can alter their lists too whenever they want if they think a super is unreliable.

[Flagg]

That's true Teebs. The supers who are pledged are the die hards. The ones who are not... why the hell aren't they? There's only one real reason. Because they don't want to be seen as the spoiler, so they held their vote.

What? Super delegates are unpledged by definition, and endorsing a candidate does not guarantee the super-delegate will pledge their vote a candidate since they're free to change their mind until the Democratic Convention. Only regular delegates are bound to pledge their vote to the candidate they've announced their preference for.

When I said pledged I meant those who have their vote in the Obama or Clinton camp for now. Just like pledged delegates.

Of course you knew this but decided to semantic whore pledged for some reason, even though there's plenty of definitions of pledged besides "pledged delegate." All the posts previous to this said supers can change their minds -- you don't think I know that? But the list CNN has up is 157 Obama and 234 Clinton and they wouldn't put that shit up unless it was reliable. Obama and Clinton can alter their lists too whenever they want if they think a super is unreliable.

Umm, no you're full of shit. There is no such thing as a "pledged" super-delegate. Just because they say "I'm voting for them" doesn't mean they're actually going to do it, nor do they have to. An endorsement is a powerful sign, but if Obama is the clear choice for the majority of the party, then I wouldn't expect all of those who have said they're going to vote for Hillary to actually do so. Especially if it would give her a win.

[General Zod]

When I said pledged I meant those who have their vote in the Obama or Clinton camp for now. Just like pledged delegates.

Uhm, no. Not like pledged delegates. The difference is very massive since one is allowed to change their mind and the other is not.

Of course you knew this but decided to semantic whore pledged for some reason, even though there's plenty of definitions of pledged besides "pledged delegate." All the posts previous to this said supers can change their minds -- you don't think I know that? But the list CNN has up is 157 Obama and 234 Clinton and they wouldn't put that shit up unless it was reliable. Obama and Clinton can alter their lists too whenever they want if they think a super is unreliable.

What semantics? You used wrong terminology, I pointed out why it was wrong. Saying a super-delegate is pledged and then getting a hair up your ass when it's pointed out what you said is wrong just demonstrates your ignorance of the system.

[brianeyci]

Who the hell said they have to, or that they can't change their minds?

You even put pledged in quotes because you know you're semantic whoring. When I see the 157 and the 234 I consider that CNN, Obama and Clinton have done their homework and those are reliable enough to be depended on. Nowhere in my post does it say that the supers can't change their mind. So you can take the strawman and shove it.

[SirNitram]

Brian, what is this thing where you charge in, not knowing what the fuck you're talking about?

The DelCount is different with each of the major US networks, because there isn't any reliability on how the Supers will split. Or did you leap in not doing your homework?

[General Zod]

Who the hell said they have to, or that they can't change their minds?

You even put pledged in quotes because you know you're semantic whoring. When I see the 157 and the 234 I consider that CNN, Obama and Clinton have done their homework and those are reliable enough to be depended on. Nowhere in my post does it say that the supers can't change their mind. So you can take the strawman and shove it.

Again, what semantics dumbass? I'm using the proper definitions in context, you were not. Trying to say any super-delegates were pledged is confusing and comes off as stupid to people who actually know what the fuck they're talking about, so don't get a hair up your ass when someone calls you on not knowing your shit.

[Flagg]

Who the hell said they have to, or that they can't change their minds?

You even put pledged in quotes because you know you're semantic whoring. When I see the 157 and the 234 I consider that CNN, Obama and Clinton have done their homework and those are reliable enough to be depended on. Nowhere in my post does it say that the supers can't change their mind. So you can take the strawman and shove it.

Retard, the networks all differ in the super-delegates count. I'm not sure that MSNBC (for instance) is even counting them yet. The only super-delegates you can actually count on to vote a certain way are Hillary Clinton, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama.

[brianeyci]

Actually I just assumed it was some kind of lag, just like the pledged delegates. Different networks actually have different numbers for the pledged delegates too last time I checked.

I don't see General Zod's point rather than to argue semantics. The core of my post is still there -- the supers who have decided to endorse (if you want I will use that word) a candidate have done so, and the ones who haven't are holding their votes. Nowhere do I say the supers can't change their vote. And I didn't jump into the thread, I've been here from the (short) start. Zod has this habit of going into threads and picking one puny insignificant point, for example a choice in a word, rather than addressing the core.

[redmagister]

seems strange to me, Obama is only up by 40ish delegates and already people are circling like hyenas trying to pick of the candidate with perceived weakness, the race is still pretty open to my mind. though between Obama's gains among women and Latinos and Clinton's campaign manager and assistant campaign mange leaving her future does look grim.

[Flagg]

It's not so much that Obama has been winning, it's that he's been winning by upwards of 20-30 points. Clinton will need to start turning that around to be able to just get even with him again.

That's why they're still making some noise about including Florida and Michigan delegates, which is a fucking joke. The only one on the ballot in Michigan was Clinton, and the only one to campaign in Florida was Clinton.

[redmagister]

[quote]That's why they're still making some noise about including Florida and Michigan delegates, which is a fucking joke. The only one on the ballot in Michigan was Clinton, and the only one to campaign in Florida was Clinton.[/quote] hhhm I had not heard that, and here was me thinking she was just an ugly individual bent on destroying my happiness by jumping onto every political bandwagon imaginable,and laughing like the wicked witch of the west, oh well happy delusion gone, now she just looks like clinton with his testicles removed and with them our ability to impeach.[/quote]

[General Zod]

Actually I just assumed it was some kind of lag, just like the pledged delegates. Different networks actually have different numbers for the pledged delegates too last time I checked.

I don't see General Zod's point rather than to argue semantics. The core of my post is still there -- the supers who have decided to endorse (if you want I will use that word) a candidate have done so, and the ones who haven't are holding their votes. Nowhere do I say the supers can't change their vote. And I didn't jump into the thread, I've been here from the (short) start. Zod has this habit of going into threads and picking one puny insignificant point, for example a choice in a word, rather than addressing the core.

Brian, stop being such a useless twat. I was offering clarification and an explanation as to why your term was wrong and confusing, but as usual you take it personally and felt a need to jump into full argumentative mode. Perhaps if you acted like less of a bitch on the rag you wouldn't be so uptight.

[Fire Fly]

seems strange to me, Obama is only up by 40ish delegates and already people are circling like hyenas trying to pick of the candidate with perceived weakness, the race is still pretty open to my mind. though between Obama's gains among women and Latinos and Clinton's campaign manager and assistant campaign mange leaving her future does look grim.

If you factor in the super delegates, Obama is up by a few dozen but if you only factor in the pledged delegates, he's up by ~130.

[Mr. Sinister]

Maybe if we're lucky some of Hillary's super-delegates will start leaving her and putting their support with Obama over this. (I realize this is hopelessly optimistic.)

This isn't far-fetched at all IMO. A lot of commentators are predicting that hers might start jumping ship over her behavior and failure to win states. In addition, last I heard most supers remain uncommitted.

Speaking of super-dels bailing...

MILWAUKEE — Representative John Lewis, an elder statesman from the civil rights era and one of Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton’s most prominent black supporters, said Thursday night that he planned to cast his vote as a superdelegate for Senator Barack Obama in hopes of preventing a fight at the Democratic convention.

“In recent days, there is a sense of movement and a sense of spirit,” said Mr. Lewis, a Georgia Democrat who endorsed Mrs. Clinton last fall. “Something is happening in America, and people are prepared and ready to make that great leap.”

Mr. Lewis, who carries great influence among other members of Congress, disclosed his decision in an interview in which he said that as a superdelegate, he could not go against the wishes of the voters of his district, who overwhelmingly supported Mr. Obama.

“I’ve been very impressed with the campaign of Senator Obama,” Mr. Lewis said. “He’s getting better and better every single day.”

His comments came as fresh signs emerged that Mrs. Clinton’s support was beginning to erode from some other African-American lawmakers who also serve as superdelegates. Representative David Scott of Georgia, who was among the first to defect, said he, too, would not go against the will of voters in his district.

The developments came on a day in which Mrs. Clinton set out anew to prove that the fight for the Democratic nomination was far from over. Campaigning in Ohio, she pursued a new strategy of biting attack lines against Mr. Obama, while adopting a newly populist tone as she courted blue-collar voters.

Mrs. Clinton also intensified her efforts in Wisconsin, which holds its primary on Tuesday and where she and Mr. Obama now have the first dueling negative television advertisements of the campaign.

In the ads, Mrs. Clinton taunted Mr. Obama for refusing to debate her in Wisconsin. And she and former President Bill Clinton prepared for a new fund-raising blitz to try to counter Mr. Obama’s edge of several million dollars in campaign cash.

Yet even as the Democratic rivals looked ahead to the primaries in Wisconsin, Ohio and Texas, Mr. Lewis said he and other prominent African-American party leaders had been moved by Mr. Obama’s recent victories and his ability to transcend racial and geographic lines.

Though Mr. Lewis had praise for Mrs. Clinton and for her historic candidacy, he said he could decide within days whether to formally endorse Mr. Obama.

He also said he and other lawmakers would meet in the coming days to decide how they intended to weigh into the nominating fight. If neither Mrs. Clinton nor Mr. Obama receive enough pledged delegates to win the nomination, superdelegates like Mr. Lewis may play the deciding role in who wins.

“If I can be used as a mediator, a negotiator or a peacemaker, I’d be happy to step in,” Mr. Lewis said, adding that he intends to speak to both candidates in hopes of ending the race amicably in the next month. “I don’t want to see Mrs. Clinton damaged or Mr. Obama damaged.”

Jay Carson, a spokesman for Mrs. Clinton, said Thursday: “Congressman Lewis is a true American hero, and we have the utmost respect for him and understand the great pressure he faced. And Senator Clinton enjoys incredibly strong support from superdelegates around the country from all regions and races.”

The comments by Mr. Lewis underscored a growing sentiment among some of the party’s black leaders that they should not stand in the way of Mr. Obama’s historic quest for the nomination and should not go against the will of their constituents. As superdelegates, they may have the final say, which is something Mr. Lewis said he feared would weaken Democrats and raise Republicans’ chances of winning the White House.

Still, the Democratic nominating fight clearly has many turns ahead. On Thursday, Mrs. Clinton unleashed the most ambitious mobilization of her forces in weeks, reflecting the intense pressure she is under from Mr. Obama, the political necessity for her of towering performances in the delegate-rich primaries in Ohio and Texas on March 4, and her fresh hope of an upset victory in Wisconsin.

I love this moment so much I want to have sex with it.

[Illuminatus Primus]

Jesus is Clinton's campaign falling apart. You can smell the desperation and naked fear.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

Is it too early to count the chickens hatching? :S

[Flagg]

Jesus is Clinton's campaign falling apart. You can smell the desperation and naked fear.

Yeah. Still to soon to count her out, unfortunately. She's probably going to win Ohio, though it will likely be close.

[brianeyci]

Brian, stop being such a useless twat. I was offering clarification and an explanation as to why your term was wrong and confusing, but as usual you take it personally and felt a need to jump into full argumentative mode. Perhaps if you acted like less of a bitch on the rag you wouldn't be so uptight.

Hm perhaps you're right. Because of this and other things I will be taking a long break. Let's hope Clinton is finished when I come back.

[Fire Fly]

Jesus is Clinton's campaign falling apart. You can smell the desperation and naked fear.

Until I see the Clintons come out of their command center with their field marshals with their hands held over their head with one hand clutching a white flag and the other one clutching an olive branch, I'm not even close to dismissing them.

[Jadeite]

I'm calling bullshit on anyone saying they'd vote for McCain over Hillary. After eight years of a Republican presidency, I don't think anyone here would be stupid enough to vote for another four years of that shit.