Kosovo about to break up?

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Kosovo about to break up?

Post by Vympel »

The NYT
MITROVICA, Kosovo — A day after Kosovo’s ethnic Albanian leadership declared independence from Serbia, 7,000 Serbs took to the streets of this divided city, waving Serbian flags, chanting “Kosovo is Serbia!” and burning an American flag covered with the words “The Fourth Reich.”

A small clutch of radicals stood at the bridge leading to the Albanian side of the city shouting, “Kick, shout, kill the Albanians!” Old men and women wept, some expressing disbelief that Kosovo was no longer theirs. A NATO military helicopter hovered overhead. Armed police officers formed a human shield to keep the protesters from trying to cross to the other side of the bridge, where crowds of Albanians looked on defiantly.

Mitrovica is divided between Albanians, who live south of the Ibar River, and Serbs, who live to the north. The city has long been a flashpoint for violence in Kosovo, a territory of two million people, where a Serb minority of 125,000 people ekes out an existence in isolated enclaves surrounded by Albanians, who make up 95 percent of Kosovo’s population.

An explosion went off Monday night in the northern part of Mitrovica, near the building where the United Nations police and mediation offices are situated, Agence France-Presse reported. The police said that there were no injuries and that damage was confined to a few shattered car windows.

The Serbian-dominated northern part of Kosovo already has parallel institutional structures and a majority of Serbs there do not recognize the authority of the Kosovo government. The ability of NATO’s 16,000 peacekeepers to maintain calm could help determine whether Kosovo will hold together.

As Kosovo’s jubilant ethnic Albanians continued to celebrate, concerns were growing that the Serbian-dominated north could boil over into violence, break off and bring about the partition of Kosovo. Conversely, analysts warned of the risks if Kosovo’s Albanians, newly emboldened by independence, tried to assert authority over the north, which accounts for 15 percent of Kosovo’s territory.

“Mitrovica has for long time been the critical area in the south Balkans where things are going to come to a head,” said Misha Glenny, a leading Balkans expert based in London. “Whatever the outcome of Kosovo’s independence, everyone knows we are heading for de facto partition, but no one is willing to admit it.”

In a sign that Serbia was already asserting its authority in the north of Kosovo, reports emerged Monday that some Serbian policemen had begun to desert the multiethnic Kosovo police force to give their allegiance to Belgrade. The police force in Pristina, the capital of Kosovo, denied that.

Even as Kosovo’s ethnic Albanian leaders pledged to protect the rights of the Serbian minority, Serbs in Mitrovica said Monday that they would never join the “false state” and would remain part of Serbia. They said they had put their faith in Moscow, which vehemently rejects Kosovo’s independence.

“If the Albanians try to cross the bridge, we demand from the Serbian Army to use all available means to stop them,” Marko Jaksic, the Kosovo Serbs’ hard-line leader, told the protesters. “America is no longer the single world power. The Russians are coming. As long as there is Russia and Serbia, there will never be an independent Kosovo.”


Serbian officials in Mitrovica said they had been encouraged by Belgrade to ignore the independence declaration and remain in Kosovo to keep the northern part of the territory under de facto Serbian control. “They will offer us a lot of money to sell our houses, but we will never leave — never!” Mr. Jaksic said, as the crowd raised three fingers in a sign of Serbian unity.

In the Albanian part of Mitrovica, most residents heeded police warnings to stay inside. Bislim Bislimi, an unemployed 28-year-old ethnic Albanian, said it was unjust that Albanians could not move freely on their own territory. “We live here, and we can’t even walk to the other side of the bridge,” he said. “It belongs to us.”

While the demonstrations in Mitrovica were calm by Balkan standards, violence erupted nearby. An explosion early Monday destroyed a United Nations car in Zubin Potok, a village about six miles northwest of Mitrovica, the local police said. No injuries were reported. Another explosion on Sunday rocked a United Nations building near Mitrovica, causing minor damage but no injuries.

In a move that threatened to heighten tensions, the Serbian Interior Ministry filed criminal charges in a Serbian court on Monday against the three Kosovar leaders who were instrumental in proclaiming independence: President Fatmir Sejdiu, Prime Minister Hashim Thaci and the speaker of Parliament, Jakup Krasniqi. It was symbolic, because Kosovo does not recognize the legal jurisdiction of Serbian courts.

Meanwhile, in Belgrade, 7,000 protesters gathered in Republic Square and chanted anti-Albanian slogans.

The march on Monday followed demonstrations on Sunday in which rioters stoned the American Embassy and attacked the mission of Slovenia, which currently holds the rotating European Union presidency. Both countries backed Kosovo’s secession.

Ljubica Gojgic, a leading Serbian commentator, said that if Kosovo’s independence declaration was recognized by the West, it would embolden Serbian nationalists while making it difficult for those who advocate closer ties with Europe to have their voices heard.

On Monday, Serbian defiance also spilled over to Bosnia, where the international community maintains a fragile unity between Bosnia’s entities, the Serb-run Republika Srpska and the Muslim-Croat Federation.

The main opposition Bosnian Serb party called for the independence of the Serb-run half of Bosnia, citing Kosovo as a precedent. A march by several thousand people in Banja Luka, capital of the Bosnian Serb Republic, turned violent as protesters threw stones at the American, French and German consulates.
It's sad that the hard-line Serbs think Moscow is going to come to their aid in any manner other than making sure Kosovo never gets admitted to the UN. The Russians aren't going to stick their neck out for nothing more than historical symbolism and solidarity.

However, given the situation in the north, I suspect they'll need to edit their crappy new flag pretty soon - or else try and take the north by force. Good luck with that. We saw what happened when the ethnic Albanians started up yet another of their "liberation armies" for regions in the rest of Serbia they thought they should own (crushed and disbanded).
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Post by K. A. Pital »

More breakups for Yugoslavia? That's certainly a possibility, and as the article correctly indicates, both in Kosovo and in Bosnia.
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Post by Adrian Laguna »

I remember once seeing an explanation of the Balkanization process that had as its final step the declaration of every individual to be a sovereign nation.
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Post by Guardsman Bass »

I don't suppose there is any chance that the Kosovar government will simply let the northern Serbian-dominated area simply leave and be annexed by Serbia proper (although the article implies that that has effectively happened anyways)?

I'm not quite as familiar with the politics of the region, but how far can the corpse of Yugoslavia possibly fragment? You'd think at some point they'd hit states that encompass too small of areas and populations to truly be economically viable without massive outside assistance.

On a side note, where do you buy an American flag to burn in a place like northern Kosovo?
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Post by K. A. Pital »

I'm not quite as familiar with the politics of the region, but how far can the corpse of Yugoslavia possibly fragment?
Pretty much down to small regions and towns, I guess. Just a little stronger shock and the same fate would've befell Russia. That's not without precendent either, during the early XX century civil war there were nationstates springing up limited to barely several cities... :lol:
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Post by Phantasee »

Guardsman Bass wrote:On a side note, where do you buy an American flag to burn in a place like northern Kosovo?
The wonders of a globalized economy!

I'm guessing that someone just bought a truckload from some place outside, and just drove back in time for the party (they were waving them in the celebrations, and burning them in the riots).
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Post by Netko »

Stas Bush wrote:
I'm not quite as familiar with the politics of the region, but how far can the corpse of Yugoslavia possibly fragment?
Pretty much down to small regions and towns, I guess. Just a little stronger shock and the same fate would've befell Russia. That's not without precendent either, during the early XX century civil war there were nationstates springing up limited to barely several cities... :lol:
Well, if you want to be absurd about it, there is still said northern part of Kosovo, Republika Srpska, Herzegovina, Vojvodina and Istria as relatively clearly defined entities in ex-Yugoslav states that have at least some inkling of separatism, ranked by likelyhood, from highest to lowest - and with the likelyhood dropping sharply with Herzegovina and being essentially non-existant with Istria (where it gets single digit or low double digit support from the populace).

Realistically, its done. The breakup by states (federal republics) is done, the one autonomous region with strong separatist feeling is also independent (Kosovo), while the other one, Vojvodina, doesn't currently harbour any such feelings and it would take a Serbian reversion to full-on '91 nationalism to ignite it even a little (Croats are the local ethnic minority/majority). Of course, that is taking account the territorial units of Yugoslavia - Bosnia has its own problems, namely Republika Srpska and potentially, with a much higher chance for it if Republika Srpska secedes, Herzegovina (or Herceg-Bosna or whatever other name Bosnian Croats dream up). Still, aside from RS (which I still don't give very good chances), its likely that Bosnia will not be breaking up.

As far as the story goes, I don't particularly see why this news merited its own thread. This is mostly expected folklore to let people vent and to satisfy the internal political needs. Doesn't mean that some sort of reshuffling with northern Kosovo will not take place, but the protest aren't much of an indicator of anything. Its more telling that Serbia is basically admitting defeat by only symbolically recalling their ambassadors from countries that recognise Kosovo, but is not doing anything more then that. In all likelyhood, they will allow the people to protest, spout some jingoistic rhetoric for internal consumption and in a few months things will be back to the status quo, minus Kosovo's ambiguous status.
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Post by Vympel »

Kosovo Serbs torch checkpoints
Chanting "Kosovo is Serbia," thousands of Serbs marched Tuesday to a bridge dividing them from ethnic Albanians while others torched U.N. border checkpoints and cars to protest Kosovo's declaration of independence.

Smoke billowed from two checkpoints separating Kosovo from Serbia and flames engulfed several U.N. vehicles set ablaze in protest against Kosovo's weekend proclamation of independence and anger over international recognition of the new nation.

For two days, Kosovo's Serbs have shown their determination to shun the declaration by destroying U.N. and NATO property, setting off small bombs and staging noisy rallies through the Serb stronghold of Kosovska Mitrovica.

The attacks on U.N. border crossings showed the protesters' willingness to use violence to hold onto Kosovo — and could clear the way for Serbian militants to return to fight in Kosovo, a land Serb nationalists consider the cradle of their state and religion.

Kosovo has not been under Belgrade's control since 1999, when NATO launched airstrikes to halt a Serbian crackdown on ethnic Albanian separatists. A U.N. mission since has governed Kosovo, with more than 16,000 NATO troops and a multiethnic police force policing the province.

The divided town of Kosovska Mitrovica in the north has been tense since the ethnic Albanian leadership in Pristina unilaterally declared independence from Serbia on Sunday — widely expected after internationally mediated talks on the province's future fell apart last year.

Overnight, three loud explosions shook the town, with one damaging several cars near a U.N. building. Two hand grenades hit deserted homes that belonged to ethnic Albanians who fled this Serb stronghold after the 1999 war. A U.N. vehicle also was torched overnight in a nearby village.

No injuries were reported, and Kosovo Serb authorities said they were investigating the bombings.

In Jarnije and Banja, some 18 miles north of Kosovska Mitrovica, protesters used plastic explosives and bulldozers to wreck the two border checkpoint posts.

Protesters tipped over metal sheds that housed Kosovo's customs service and sent them sliding down a hill and into a river. They vandalized and set fire to passport control booths.

"It was very dangerous and the police had to withdraw and call for help from NATO peacekeepers," said Veton Elshani, a spokesman for Kosovo's multiethnic police force.

NATO peacekeepers did not intervene but stepped up patrols on the road leading to Serbia. Alliance helicopters buzzed overhead.

Mitrovica's Serb authorities said they intervened at the border because ethnic Albanians were attempting to set up border crossings on the boundary with Serbia. The Serbs called on Belgrade to "urgently take steps" to protect Serbia's territorial integrity and protect its citizens.

About 2,000 young Kosovo Serbs marched to a bridge that spans the Ibar River dividing the town between Serbs and ethnic Albanians, wrecking a NATO car in downtown Mitrovica with sticks and stones along the way.

"We cannot allow the institutions of a nonexistent state to be imposed on us and to pay taxes to some independent Kosovo," said Slavisa Ristic, head of the local Serb municipality. "That is impossible."

International recognition of Kosovo's declaration of independence — led by the U.S., Australia and the European Union's biggest powers — appeared to feed Serbs' anger over a unilateral move the government in Belgrade rejected as illegal.

Russia, China and some EU members also strongly oppose letting Kosovo break away from Serbia over Serbia's objections.

In Vienna, Austria, Serbia's foreign minister urged members of the Organization for Security and Cooperation to condemn Kosovo's "illegal" declaration.

"History will judge those who have chosen to trample the bedrock of the international system and on the principles upon which security and cooperation in Europe have been established," Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic said.

He said Serbia is ready — "at any time, in any place, in any manner" — to engage in talks with Pristina to agree on a mutually acceptable solution for Kosovo's future status.

"But we cannot give them sovereignty. ... For us, Kosovo is the crucible of our identity, it is the essential link between our past and our future," he said.

Kosovo, where the population of 2 million is more than 90 percent ethnic Albanian, insisted during U.N.-led talks on statehood while Serbia, which has deep religious and historic ties to Kosovo, pushed for wide autonomy.

___

Associated Press writer Nebi Qena contributed to this report from Pristina.
KFOR troops deployed to protect the border checkpoints
PRISTINA, Feb 19 (Reuters) - Troops of the NATO-led Kosovo peacekeeping force KFOR were being sent to the northern border of the newly independent republic on Tuesday to defend border posts under attack by Serbs who oppose its secession from Serbia.

"KFOR is going to intervene now," spokesman Colonel Betrand Bonneau told Reuters. He declined to say which troops of the 35-nation force were being deployed.

A second KFOR source said troops were already at one border post which had been burnt to the ground. (Reporting by Shaban Buza, writing by Douglas Hamilton)
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Post by Big Phil »

It's just this sort of stupidity that makes you wonder whether the forced migration of Germans after WWII wasn't the way to go throughout the rest of Europe.
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Post by Kane Starkiller »

No it's exactly that sort of stupid thinking, namely forcibly relocating and killing various unwanted ethnic groups, that lead to lasting hatreds.
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Post by Eris »

Kane Starkiller wrote:No it's exactly that sort of stupid thinking, namely forcibly relocating and killing various unwanted ethnic groups, that lead to lasting hatreds.
Oh? As far as I can tell the Germans don't hate the Poles, Czechs, Slovaks, or any of the other inhabitants of the countries they were evicted from. No more than the usual sprinkling of far right lunatics and assorted bigots. So much so that the government legislates against it.

Unless we're using very different definitions of the term lasting hatred, it doesn't seem like that one turned out too badly beyond the misery inflicted by the relocation itself.
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Post by Big Phil »

Kane Starkiller wrote:No it's exactly that sort of stupid thinking, namely forcibly relocating and killing various unwanted ethnic groups, that lead to lasting hatreds.
There are lots of things that lead to lasting hatreds; the Irish hate each other over religion, for Christ's sake, and the Basques hate the French and Spanish because they won't let them have their own country (they weren't forcibly relocated). It's all ridiculous beyond ridiculous.
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Post by Kane Starkiller »

Eris wrote:Oh? As far as I can tell the Germans don't hate the Poles, Czechs, Slovaks, or any of the other inhabitants of the countries they were evicted from. No more than the usual sprinkling of far right lunatics and assorted bigots. So much so that the government legislates against it.

Unless we're using very different definitions of the term lasting hatred, it doesn't seem like that one turned out too badly beyond the misery inflicted by the relocation itself.
That's because Germany planned to exterminate those countries and accepts that it is guilty party in WW2 and all evil that came out of it.
But the fact that one country let it slide since it's own crimes were far greater doesn't mean that forced relocation of population is somehow a good thing.
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Post by K. A. Pital »

Forced relocation isn't a good thing. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't - a lot depends on how the nationalities integrate or don't integrate. Germany was (more or less) thoroughly de-Nazified from both East and West, it's example is not immediately applicable to other nations.
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Post by Guardsman Bass »

Stas Bush wrote:Forced relocation isn't a good thing. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't - a lot depends on how the nationalities integrate or don't integrate. Germany was (more or less) thoroughly de-Nazified from both East and West, it's example is not immediately applicable to other nations.
Germany is definitely a special case on this. They'd just lost a large part of their population as a whole in Germany proper and outside in the theatres of war, and they had the base upon which to rebuild their economy. Those tend to help integrate people of the same nationality living in different areas.
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Post by FSTargetDrone »

Update. Serbs rally in Belgrade:
Serbs mass in Belgrade to vent anger over Kosovo

Richard Meares

Reuters

Thursday, February 21, 2008

BELGRADE (Reuters) - Serbs poured into their capital on Thursday for a state-run mass protest against Kosovo's declaration of independence, showing their anger at the loss of their religious heartland.

Organizers expect hundreds of thousands to attend the "People's Rally" in Belgrade, in what would be the biggest demonstration since half a million filled the streets in 2000 to oust nationalist autocrat Slobodan Milosevic.

Belgrader Milan Vukosavljevic said it was important to show the strength of Serbian felling against Kosovo's independence, which most see as an illegal move despite Western backing.

"It's an invented state, shame on Europe and on the whole world," he said.

Serbs from across the republic and from Kosovo poured into Belgrade on hundreds of free buses and trains and by car, chanting and waving Serbian flags.

Far to the south, at a border post between Kosovo and Serbia, several hundred Serb army veterans stoned Kosovo riot police who, backed by Czech troops in riot gear, stood ready to drive them back. Burning tyres sent black smoke into the air.

NATO peacekeepers say they are determined to stop a repeat of Tuesday's destruction of two other border posts by Serbs.

In Banja Luka in the Bosnian Serb Republic, several people were injured when protesters holding aloft portraits of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Serbia's chief ally in its opposition to Kosovo, clashed with police in front of the U.S. consulate.
I snipped some of the end of the article about the history, etc. Anyway, there's been some violence in the city, some fires and so forth. Live pictures on Fox and MSNBC right now.
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Post by FSTargetDrone »

Whoops. Mr. Bean's already got a thread about this right here.
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Post by DarthShady »

Serb nationalism showing it's ugly head again.They don't want to admit it, but they lost Kosovo already.
And now Bosnian Serbs are using Kosovo as an excuse to try and separate Republika Srpska from Bosnia. It is the Balkan way.

A lot of idiots in a small place!
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Post by CaptainChewbacca »

DarthShady wrote:Serb nationalism showing it's ugly head again.They don't want to admit it, but they lost Kosovo already.
And now Bosnian Serbs are using Kosovo as an excuse to try and separate Republika Srpska from Bosnia. It is the Balkan way.

A lot of idiots in a small place!
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Post by K. A. Pital »

And now Bosnian Serbs are using Kosovo as an excuse to try and separate Republika Srpska from Bosnia.
Are they not acting within their rights? I mean, Kosovo shows that you can. Just declare yourself and have a bunch of nations admit you exist. Others will follow inevitably. ;) Just take your time.
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Post by Netko »

RS isn't quite ready to put independence on the table... not quite yet. They're smarter then that. The international community would look foolish and would have to clamp down hard if they issued an independence proclamation so close after Kosovo. However, that doesn't mean they aren't milking it for all its worth to stop the reforms and centralisation necessary to make Bosnia a viable nation, effectively conditionally putting independence on the table, however doing so while being "reasonable" enough that there is no blowback.

See here for an interview with RS's PM Dodik on the issue.

My comments on the Belgrade violence are in the other thread.
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Post by K. A. Pital »

The international community would look foolish
That would actually look awesome. I know the RS would be fools for trying this so brazenly and early after, but imagine the looks of Bush and Condileeza! I'd pay lots to see something like that and then them give an interview and speak in the UN :lol:
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Post by DarthShady »

Stas Bush wrote:
And now Bosnian Serbs are using Kosovo as an excuse to try and separate Republika Srpska from Bosnia.
Are they not acting within their rights? I mean, Kosovo shows that you can. Just declare yourself and have a bunch of nations admit you exist. Others will follow inevitably. ;) Just take your time.
They don't have that right.Not yet.I live in Bosnia and i know that the people are not ready for that to happen so soon.(There is too much bad blood)
Maybe in the future but i doubt it, RS is a part of Bosnia and it will stay a part of Bosnia, for the time being at least.Although in my opinion it would be best to just give them what they want and be done with it.
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Post by Sidewinder »

Sounds like we'll be hearing the Kosovar Serbs have become victims of police brutality REAL SOON.

As for the Serbian nationalists who want to buy state-of-the-art weapons from Russia and reconquer Kosovo, I have to ask, can Serbia afford such weapons? Can they financially and logistically support such a campagne? To my knowledge, the Russians are providing weapons in exchange for cold, hard cash, NOT Communist revolutionary solidarity or whatever the reasons given during the Soviet era.
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Post by Big Phil »

I wonder if Kosovo would be willing to trade its northern region (mostly populated by ethnic Serbs anyway) to make this issue go away?
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