I think we all know I need not comment. Oops, just did.Oil jumps above $100 on refinery outage
By JOHN WILEN, AP Business Writer 33 minutes ago
NEW YORK - Oil futures shot to a new record above $100 Tuesday for the first time since Jan. 3 as investors bet that crude prices will keep climbing despite evidence of plentiful supplies and falling demand. At the pump, gas prices rose further above $3 a gallon.
There was no single driver behind oil's sharp price jump; investors seized on an explosion at a 67,000 barrel per day refinery in Texas, the falling dollar, the possibility that OPEC may cut production next month, and continuing tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela.
Gasoline and heating oil prices appeared to be leading the advance, rising faster in percentage terms than oil due to the explosion Monday at Alon USA's Big Spring, Texas, refinery, which could be shuttered for two months.
"The refinery fire in Texas is making people a little concerned," said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research Inc. in Amherst, Mass.
Light, sweet crude for March delivery rose $4.30 to $99.80 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after earlier rising as high as $100.10, a new record [Ed: Yeah, they conveniently don't make that the banner headline]. Final settlement prices weren't available yet. March gasoline jumped 10.17 cents to $2.5955 a gallon, and March heating oil rose 10.81 cents to $2.755 a gallon.
Oil prices are still within the range of inflation-adjusted highs set in early 1980. Depending on how the adjustment is calculated, $38 a barrel then would be worth $96 to $103 or more today.
The dollar fell Tuesday, giving investors another reason to buy oil. Crude futures offer a hedge against a falling dollar, and oil futures bought and sold in dollars are more attractive to foreign investors when the greenback is falling.
For the moment, investors appear to have put aside concerns about the economy that have sent oil prices down into the mid-$80 range twice since crude peaked above $100 last month. Traders are instead focused on the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which will meet early next month to map out production plans, and Venezuela, where President Hugo Chavez made conflicting statements this weekend about the country's legal dispute with Exxon Mobil Corp.
OPEC could move to cut production in the second quarter, typically a period of low demand, though many analysts feel that's unlikely. In Venezuela, Chavez said he was not serious about an earlier threat to cut oil sales to the U.S., but also threatened to sue Exxon Mobil. The world's largest oil company is fighting Venezuela's nationalization of an oil project, and recently convinced several courts to freeze $12 billion in Venezuelan oil assets.
None of the news is enough to justify a nearly $3 a barrel jump in the price of crude, said James Cordier, founder of OptionSellers.com, a Tampa, Fla., trading firm. Echoing other analysts, Cordier argued that the oil market is in the process of "decoupling" from oil's supply and demand fundamentals. He said investors drawn by the falling dollar and momentum are pushing oil prices sharply higher despite reports last week from the Energy Department, OPEC and the International Energy Agency which all cut oil demand growth predictions for this year.
"Everyone concurs that we've got smaller demand coming in the U.S.," Cordier said.
Retail gas prices, meanwhile, jumped 1.8 cents to a national average price of $3.032 a gallon Tuesday, according to AAA and the Oil Price Information Service. Retail prices, which typically lag the futures market, are following oil prices higher. The Energy Department expects gas prices to peak near $3.40 a gallon this spring.
Other energy futures also rose Tuesday. March natural gas jumped 32 cents to $8.98 per 1,000 cubic feet. Analysts said prices were supported by forecasts for cooler weather, but that futures were also following oil prices higher.
In London, Brent crude for April delivery rose $3.38 to $98.29 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.
___
AP Business Writers George Jahn in Vienna and Thomas Hogue in Bangkok contributed to this report.
Oil Breaks A New Record
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- Admiral Valdemar
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Oil Breaks A New Record
Laaaaadies and gentlemen. Let's geeeet ready to ruuuuuuumblllllleeeee!
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Re: Oil Breaks A New Record
"...despite evidence of plentiful supplies and falling demand."
Okay, John Wilen. Whatever you say.
Okay, John Wilen. Whatever you say.
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- Admiral Valdemar
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Excellent news for my investments!
I, for one, will cheer for higher oil & energy prices.
Also, today would be a good day to fill up your car and a few 5 gallon cans as well since the price of gas will be up rather significantly tomorrow.
I, for one, will cheer for higher oil & energy prices.

Also, today would be a good day to fill up your car and a few 5 gallon cans as well since the price of gas will be up rather significantly tomorrow.
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Don't look at me, I only have around 700 gallons stashed away so far...Admiral Valdemar wrote:HOARDING!
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I'm not sure why people choose 'To Love is to Bury' as their wedding song...It's about a murder-suicide
- Margo Timmins
When it becomes serious, you have to lie
- Jean-Claude Juncker
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I'm not sure why people choose 'To Love is to Bury' as their wedding song...It's about a murder-suicide
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Heh. Solution is to build more damn refineries, so the ones we have aren't forced to run at 95% capacity all the time; and can be lowered down for preventive maintenance, so there aren't as many fires and explosions.
But no, oil refineries are eeevul!
But no, oil refineries are eeevul!
"If scientists and inventors who develop disease cures and useful technologies don't get lifetime royalties, I'd like to know what fucking rationale you have for some guy getting lifetime royalties for writing an episode of Full House." - Mike Wong
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Except that the oil companies know oil is peaking, so they're not willing to invest in more refineries, which will take several years to come online and only be profitable for a matter of years as production begins to dwindle.MKSheppard wrote:Heh. Solution is to build more damn refineries, so the ones we have aren't forced to run at 95% capacity all the time; and can be lowered down for preventive maintenance, so there aren't as many fires and explosions.
But no, oil refineries are eeevul!
A Government founded upon justice, and recognizing the equal rights of all men; claiming higher authority for existence, or sanction for its laws, that nature, reason, and the regularly ascertained will of the people; steadily refusing to put its sword and purse in the service of any religious creed or family is a standing offense to most of the Governments of the world, and to some narrow and bigoted people among ourselves.
F. Douglass
You mean the refineries which haven't run at 95% since August 2005, and where utilization has been in the 85%-93% range since then? And which are now running at around 85%?MKSheppard wrote:Heh. Solution is to build more damn refineries, so the ones we have aren't forced to run at 95% capacity all the time; and can be lowered down for preventive maintenance, so there aren't as many fires and explosions.
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The slight variations in spelling and grammar enhance its individual character and beauty and in no way are to be considered flaws or defects
I'm not sure why people choose 'To Love is to Bury' as their wedding song...It's about a murder-suicide
- Margo Timmins
When it becomes serious, you have to lie
- Jean-Claude Juncker
The slight variations in spelling and grammar enhance its individual character and beauty and in no way are to be considered flaws or defects
I'm not sure why people choose 'To Love is to Bury' as their wedding song...It's about a murder-suicide
- Margo Timmins
When it becomes serious, you have to lie
- Jean-Claude Juncker
Do you have a reference for this?J wrote:You mean the refineries which haven't run at 95% since August 2005, and where utilization has been in the 85%-93% range since then? And which are now running at around 85%?
A Government founded upon justice, and recognizing the equal rights of all men; claiming higher authority for existence, or sanction for its laws, that nature, reason, and the regularly ascertained will of the people; steadily refusing to put its sword and purse in the service of any religious creed or family is a standing offense to most of the Governments of the world, and to some narrow and bigoted people among ourselves.
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A tad bit late. Prices around here shot up twenty cents at the cheap stations just while I was at work.J wrote:Excellent news for my investments!
I, for one, will cheer for higher oil & energy prices.
Also, today would be a good day to fill up your car and a few 5 gallon cans as well since the price of gas will be up rather significantly tomorrow.
"And the sign said, 'Anybody caught tresspassing, will be shot on sight.' So I jumped over the fence and yelled at the house, 'Hey! What -'" BAM*BAM*BAM*BAM*BAM
Yup.Surlethe wrote:Do you have a reference for this?J wrote:You mean the refineries which haven't run at 95% since August 2005, and where utilization has been in the 85%-93% range since then? And which are now running at around 85%?
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/wpuleus3w.htm
Ok, so there were 2 weeks where utilization were 93.4% & 93.6%, but that's more than averaged out by the weeks where it was below 85%.
This post is a 100% natural organic product.
The slight variations in spelling and grammar enhance its individual character and beauty and in no way are to be considered flaws or defects
I'm not sure why people choose 'To Love is to Bury' as their wedding song...It's about a murder-suicide
- Margo Timmins
When it becomes serious, you have to lie
- Jean-Claude Juncker
The slight variations in spelling and grammar enhance its individual character and beauty and in no way are to be considered flaws or defects
I'm not sure why people choose 'To Love is to Bury' as their wedding song...It's about a murder-suicide
- Margo Timmins
When it becomes serious, you have to lie
- Jean-Claude Juncker
Meh, nothing new here. Maybe I can isolate myself from all this silliness by living in a hut and living off the land and such. But with internet access.
Also, I am guilty in that my family has an SUV, but we generally only use it for big-ass family trips.
When I gain a life I am going to walk to places. I won't be able to afford fuel along with the interest rates in 7 years time.
Also, I am guilty in that my family has an SUV, but we generally only use it for big-ass family trips.
When I gain a life I am going to walk to places. I won't be able to afford fuel along with the interest rates in 7 years time.
Jupiter Oak Evolution!
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PROTIP: Fill up your vehicles before March.
Thankfully as the American dollar falls, the Australian dollar gets stronger. SBS news was just saying how that will help insulate Australia from large fuel price rises.
*JAWDROP*
That's like, 13 big 200L drums! Good God lady! Are you certain that much domestic storage of flammables is legal?
Thankfully as the American dollar falls, the Australian dollar gets stronger. SBS news was just saying how that will help insulate Australia from large fuel price rises.
Guardian wrote:The price of crude oil closed at more than $100 a barrel for the first time last night following a steep rise prompted by jitters over a possible tightening of supply by countries in the Opec cartel.
On the New York mercantile exchange, oil futures briefly hit $100.10 - the highest level since trading began in 1983. The benchmark contract for March delivery of crude oil ended the day at $100.01.
An explosion at a Texas oil refinery caused initial alarm among traders, following shutdown of the Big Spring facility, which processes 70,000 barrels of oil a day. There was also concern about heightened tension between America and Hugo Chávez's regime in Venezuela, a key oil producer.
But analysts said the real reason for a $4.51 rise during the day was mounting recognition that Opec could tighten the fuel flow to the global market when oil ministers meet on March 5.
Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading, said: "The oil bulls were buffeted with unrelenting winter weather, an oil refinery explosion and an Opec cartel that has no regard for the world economy."
Opec nations are concerned about the prospect of an economic slowdown in America spreading across the world. A fall in industrial production could reduce demand for oil, pushing the price lower.
Algeria's oil minister, Chakib Khelil, who chairs Opec, told Reuters: "Production is not going to increase. It will either decrease or be stable."
Motorists can expect fresh increases in the price of petrol. In Britain, an alliance including the AA, the RAC and the Freight Transport Association, has called on the chancellor to scrap a tax increase of 2p a litre scheduled for April.
The Venezuelan government has become increasingly bellicose over compensation for the nationalisation of an Exxon Mobil oil project.
*quick Google conversion into litres*J wrote:Don't look at me, I only have around 700 gallons stashed away so far...
*JAWDROP*
That's like, 13 big 200L drums! Good God lady! Are you certain that much domestic storage of flammables is legal?
Thank you. This will make a useful addition to my peak oil arsenal.J wrote:Yup.Surlethe wrote:Do you have a reference for this?
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/wpuleus3w.htm
Ok, so there were 2 weeks where utilization were 93.4% & 93.6%, but that's more than averaged out by the weeks where it was below 85%.
A Government founded upon justice, and recognizing the equal rights of all men; claiming higher authority for existence, or sanction for its laws, that nature, reason, and the regularly ascertained will of the people; steadily refusing to put its sword and purse in the service of any religious creed or family is a standing offense to most of the Governments of the world, and to some narrow and bigoted people among ourselves.
F. Douglass
Bloomberg reporters are funny
Clearly the work of those damn speculators, no doubt about it. You gotta love how out of touch with reality they are.Lehman Will Revise First-Quarter Oil Price Forecast (Update1)
By Jeremy Naylor and Grant Smith
Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. will revise its first-quarter New York crude oil price forecast of $86 a barrel, chief energy economist Edward Morse said.
``We will be revising it up,'' Morse said in an interview with Bloomberg television. Oil prices, which rose to a record $100.10 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange yesterday, are being driven by financial markets rather than supply-demand fundamentals, he said.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is unlikely to reduce output at its March 5 meeting with prices at current levels, Morse said. The 13-member group, which produces more than 40 percent of the world's oil, left production targets unchanged at its previous Feb. 1 conference.
``It's unlikely that at $100 a barrel anybody's going to be in the mood for a cut,'' said Morse. ``The Saudis are uncomfortable at $100 oil.''
Consumption in export-driven emerging markets won't be immune to a slowdown in the U.S., the world's biggest energy user, Morse said. Some analysts have said that Asian markets are ``decoupled'' from the U.S. and so demand there can weather a U.S. recession.
``We will be seeing an impact on Chinese demand, probably after the Olympics, and that's because of what's happening in the U.S. economy,'' he said.
Yesterday's price record was part of a broader flow of investment into commodities rather than the result of any genuine threat to crude supplies, Morse said.
``It's certainly not oil market fundamentals and nothing to do with geopolitics,'' he said. ``This is a commodities issue rather than an oil market issue.''
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Lusankya: Deal!
Say, do you want it to be a threesome with your wife? Or a foursome with your wife and sister-in-law? I'm up for either.
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If I see one more one-liner, spam, bitching post coming from you I'm make sure you get banned or deleted from existence. This is your first and final warning.Zablorg wrote:O frabjous day! Caloo! Callay!Winston Blake wrote:PROTIP: Fill up your vehicles before March.
Thankfully as the American dollar falls, the Australian dollar gets stronger.
Thinking about refineries more, is it feasible for them to run at 98% or 100% for extended periods of time? I have no idea, so I'm thinking by analogy (danger!): if you try to run any sort of machine at or near 100% for an extended period of time, it will eventually overheat or give out, or something will break, right? So if that's true, wouldn't the same hold for refineries?J wrote:Yup.
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/wpuleus3w.htm
Ok, so there were 2 weeks where utilization were 93.4% & 93.6%, but that's more than averaged out by the weeks where it was below 85%.
A Government founded upon justice, and recognizing the equal rights of all men; claiming higher authority for existence, or sanction for its laws, that nature, reason, and the regularly ascertained will of the people; steadily refusing to put its sword and purse in the service of any religious creed or family is a standing offense to most of the Governments of the world, and to some narrow and bigoted people among ourselves.
F. Douglass
Citibank report says there is a...
That's not real far away.
In response to oil optimists, they also say
I'm happy about one thing. I ride a postie-bike.
I could go 210,000km on Spin Echo's (neighbour's) stash. And have a lot of fun.
According to Citibank this would mean current production could only be maintained (or exceeded) until 2013.view of some market observers that net depletion across all global production is running at 4% currently
That's not real far away.
In response to oil optimists, they also say
Now, I actually feel that government action (subsidies, etc) will delay disaster (and make it worse), but I'm feeling a wise man makes plans for eventualities......four years of failed supply response have shifted the burden of proof away from the sceptics and onto the supply optimists.
I'm happy about one thing. I ride a postie-bike.

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Sigismund, Holy Roman Emperor
According to my friend who works in the oil industry, refineries can run at close to 100% for months on end but then they have to be shut down or greatly drop production while maintenance is done. Generally this happens in late fall & early spring when refineries change the mix of products they're supplying, more gasoline for the summer months and more heating oil for the winter.Surlethe wrote:Thinking about refineries more, is it feasible for them to run at 98% or 100% for extended periods of time? I have no idea, so I'm thinking by analogy (danger!): if you try to run any sort of machine at or near 100% for an extended period of time, it will eventually overheat or give out, or something will break, right? So if that's true, wouldn't the same hold for refineries?
Also, most refineries will usually have several units, kinda like a nuke plant which has has several reactor cores. Once the units check out they ramp them up to full capacity and keep it there as long as the oil keeps coming in and all the lights are green. Sometimes they'll have to take a unit down for the day to do some maintenance but generally speaking they keep them running full out as much as possible between the fall & spring changeovers. Up here in Canada, we've been running at around 95% utilization for the last few years according to my friend, I'll see if I can track down some official stats.


Lusankya: Deal!
Say, do you want it to be a threesome with your wife? Or a foursome with your wife and sister-in-law? I'm up for either.
