March 4 primary discussion and results

[Jadeite]

I'm behind a bit... 18 delegates in total count or 18 delegates in that particular race?

In the races. Obama still leads in total count.

[Spin Echo]

So much for the hope of waking up to a deciding victory again. I just have this nagging feeling that even though Clinton didn't get the overwhelming wins in Texas and Ohio she needs to secure herself, she's still going to take the nomination some how.

[Pu-239]

Just donated 15$ to the Obama campaign.

[Covenant]

So much for the hope of waking up to a deciding victory again. I just have this nagging feeling that even though Clinton didn't get the overwhelming wins in Texas and Ohio she needs to secure herself, she's still going to take the nomination some how.

I often feel the same way. It's the feeling of going against an opponent who has a nearly unlimited amount of lifelines. Running against Hillary is hard to do for a whole number of reasons, but the whole gender warfare element combined with the Clinton legacy is pretty awful to face. Obama is running a fantastic campaign and she's really not looking like his equal, even if she may win this. I'd hate her forever if she damages him or herself to the point that we lose this thing to the republicans, but it's just a total wreck every day she stays in. I don't blame her for doing it, of course. I just wish she would have lost texas substantially and squeaked it in Ohio and had members of her staff leave and let the campaign come to a clean, honorable end... instead of this.

[Civil War Man]

The thing is, I think she'd be saying she'd go to the end even if she won just Rhode Island.

She's reminded me of an interview with a quarterback a few years back (I don't remember exactly who, but he was going for some record). Anyway, whoever it was, he was asked that if he had a choice between holding this record, or his team winning the Super Bowl, which would be pick. His answer was the record.

Clinton has shown that she has no qualms with trying poison the well if she doesn't get to drink from it first. After the race baiting, fear mongering, outright bigotry, and obvious projecting her campaign has already resorted to, I'm thinking that Dean and Co. would have to be extrememly convincing in order to get her to drop out.

[Surlethe]

With the results being more or less final, Hillary, for her March Super Tuesday effort in four states, netted a grand total of 18 delegates over Obama. Overall, nothing has changed —as if today's vote didn't even happen as far as momentum is concerned.

I'm not sure how you get that nothing happened today as far as momentum is concerned. Momentum, as I understand, is the general perception of the campaign. And given that Clinton won primaries in three out of the four states, public perception of her campaign is sure to change, and with it, the relative momenta of the campaigns.

[Flagg]

Well, the perceived momentum may have changed, but the reality of the situation has not. IIRC Pennsylvania is the only state that she really has any hope of winning by any real margin in. That could change, but I doubt it. The fact is that she didn't do what she had to do here, which was win by upwards of 20% in all 4 states. The most I would expect from this is maybe a few superdelegates that were going to endorse Obama will keep their mouths shut a bit longer and a party official will wait to have The Talk with the Clintons until after the next few rounds of voting.

[acesand8s]

Beyond the delegate count, we should also be looking at the popular vote in the primaries/caucuses. Given that it doesn't look like Clinton will be able to overtake Obama's lead in pledged delegates but that the race may come down to superdelegates, Clinton may push to have them base their votes on the national popular vote. I think Obama only leads that by a few hundred thousand votes out of 25+ million cast. Since Clinton may be able to pick up momentum from this, she may be able to turn that around. With what happened in 2000, it's going to be a powerful argument.

[The Spartan]

You have got to be shitting me. How the hell did that bitch manage to take Texas? The state, by and large, hates her guts.

I suppose one could argue that the jackasses are trying to spoil Obama's campaign but that would be giving them too much credit.

It boggles the mind.

[Spin Echo]

You have got to be shitting me. How the hell did that bitch manage to take Texas? The state, by and large, hates her guts.

I suppose one could argue that the jackasses are trying to spoil Obama's campaign but that would be giving them too much credit.

It boggles the mind.

As far as I can tell, the texas caucus results haven't come in, so Obama in theory could still win those.

[The Spartan]

You have got to be shitting me. How the hell did that bitch manage to take Texas? The state, by and large, hates her guts.

I suppose one could argue that the jackasses are trying to spoil Obama's campaign but that would be giving them too much credit.

It boggles the mind.

As far as I can tell, the texas caucus results haven't come in, so Obama in theory could still win those.

You sure? MSNBC.com is calling it for her 51% to 47% with 99% reporting.

[acesand8s]

Ah, found the numbers.

Popular Vote (w/o FL & MI):
Obama: 12,946,615
Clinton: 12,363,897

Popular Vote (w/ FL & MI):
Obama: 13,522,829
Clinton: 13,563,192

So, if we count Florida and Michigan, Clinton is already (slightly) beating Obama. If we exclude them, Obama has a slight lead.

Source

It should be noted that Iowa, Nevada, Washington, & Maine results are not included here, as popular vote totals haven't been released.

[Spin Echo]

You sure? MSNBC.com is calling it for her 51% to 47% with 99% reporting.

Those are the primary results, not the caucus results.

[Shroom Man 777]

Goddamn, why won't that bitch just die?!

[The Spartan]

You sure? MSNBC.com is calling it for her 51% to 47% with 99% reporting.

Those are the primary results, not the caucus results.

But are they likely to be all that different?

[Spin Echo]

You sure? MSNBC.com is calling it for her 51% to 47% with 99% reporting.

Those are the primary results, not the caucus results.

But are they likely to be all that different?

From what I've read, Obama appears to have a double digit lead over Clinton in the caucus. So even though she may have won the popular vote in the primary, Obama may come out ahead in delegates from the caucus. Isn't modern democracy grand?

[Xisiqomelir]

You have got to be shitting me. How the hell did that bitch manage to take Texas? The state, by and large, hates her guts.

I suppose one could argue that the jackasses are trying to spoil Obama's campaign but that would be giving them too much credit.

You sure?

I know I'm fighting an uphill battle here, folks, on trying to convince you Republicans in Ohio and Texas to cross over, pimp yourselves for a day, vote for Hillary to keep this campaign going, this Uncivil War, Democrat Party. I know what's going to happen. Even if I convince you to do it -- remember what this is, this is about us winning. You have to understand, it's not about Hillary winning; it's about us winning. It's about our party winning. It's about those people losing. They've got some problems in the Democrat Party. It's not all sweetness and light over there, and we need them to continue warring with each other. We love these stories of black people claiming they've been threatened with violence or their lives because they're not supporting Obama. We want all this kind of stuff out there. We want the Clinton campaign to keep pumping out these pictures of Obama dressed up as Bin Laden. We want this kind of stuff. If Hillary loses this thing, all of that's going to come to a screeching halt. We want all the disruption in that party as possible. It's about us winning. . . .

I also think it's important here to call out ladies and gentlemen, the media. The media has turned on the Clintons, and the bias and the venom shown toward the Clintons and the favoritism being shown toward Obama is offensive. We need to keep chaos alive. That is the slogan of this program, but we're not going to be able to keep chaos alive.

Rush Limbaugh

[Steven Snyder]

You have got to be shitting me. How the hell did that bitch manage to take Texas? The state, by and large, hates her guts.

I suppose one could argue that the jackasses are trying to spoil Obama's campaign but that would be giving them too much credit.

It boggles the mind.

I was at a caucus last night...oh god it was a nightmare. Two hours of standing around a cold dark street, then signing by flashlight...

If those who went to the caucus were any indication, she won because a bunch of old white women didn't like Obama. They were a collection wretched crones screeching "We're votin' fer Hillary!" and bringing up the tired old BS of Obama not saying the Pledge of Allegiance and whatnot. The Obama crowd had a strong showing of blacks, but it was a diverse crowd.

I am immersed in it, so I don't see the racism from day to day. But I know these people hate Hillary, last night I watched them vote for her because the other candidate is too brown for them...well it just puts it all in perspective.

[Fire Fly]

Hillary always had an advantage in Texas anyway. She's not really that much different from a typical Republican, after all.

Funny you should mention that. Take look at the Democratic Results by County maps of Ohio and Texas and compare how they split for Clinton and Obama against how they tend to split in general elections. Obama carried all the urban counties and Hillary took the rural ones, just as the Dems and GOP do in general elections, respectively. It's kind of interesting. If you scroll over the Ohio map county by county, you'll find that the state split pretty close all around, except where the state rolls up into Appalachia near WV and KY--the very nicest part of Ohio, in other words.

It will get more ironic if the average IQ of the voter who votes for Obama is higher than voter who votes for Hillary. Not only ironic, it just adds to the fact that Hillary is a Republican hack.

The average IQ of a voter who votes for Obama is higher: he wins the people who have college degrees and graduate degrees while Hillary wins the voters who have a high school education or no education.

[Haruko]

I heard something about Rush Limbaugh and maybe others urging Republicans to hold their nose and vote for Hillary so this can drag on. I also saw some numbers on MSNBC indicating at least a 5% increase in Republicans voting in yesterday's primaries, while Democratic and Independent had about a 2% decrease.

That said, does anyone here think that there's a connection, and, if there is, that it had a notable effect on Clinton and her slight edge in Texas?

[Haruko]

Oh, right, registered Republican can't vote for an opposing party's presidential candidate? Or someone registered to either party, for that matter?

[CaptainChewbacca]

Oh, right, registered Republican can't vote for an opposing party's presidential candidate? Or someone registered to either party, for that matter?

Some Texan native will correct me, but I believe they can register for either party the day they vote, and so Republicans were able to cross over.

[LadyTevar]

Oh, right, registered Republican can't vote for an opposing party's presidential candidate? Or someone registered to either party, for that matter?

Some Texan native will correct me, but I believe they can register for either party the day they vote, and so Republicans were able to cross over.

That is just CHEATING

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

Those are the primary results, not the caucus results.

But are they likely to be all that different?

From what I've read, Obama appears to have a double digit lead over Clinton in the caucus. So even though she may have won the popular vote in the primary, Obama may come out ahead in delegates from the caucus. Isn't modern democracy grand?

Actually, the most recent CNN results have Obama clinging to a 4% lead over Clinton with less than 40% of the caucus results tallied. It wouldn't surprise me if Clinton eked out a Texas caucus victory by the end of today as well. Already, the news outlets are going on about how Clinton's campaign has turned the corner, devoting a very scant few sentences at the end to the fact that it's not going to matter one whit to Obama's lead in pledged delegates (and very small lead in delegates overall.)

It's essentially going to come down to the superdelegates. Which means smoky back-room deals and horse-trading at the Democratic convention, unless Obama or Clinton's campaigns self-destruct spectacularly in the next couple of months. Hillary Clinton might be able to convince the superdelegates that she'll be more electable in the general election, because she can get the racist, blue-collar, redneck hick, old crone, and "crossover" Republican votes (most of whom will probably jump ship and vote McCain in the general election, because, if nothing else, McCain is an old white man, and the Laaawd blessed Amur'ika 'cause the USA was lead by Gawd fearin' old white men.) whereas the people who would vote for Obama are the same people who voted for Al Gore and John Kerry, and well, we know how those contests turned out... (Though an Obama campaign would be about 10 times better lead and have a hundred times the energy and vigor.)

In short, the only one who comes up smelling of roses today is John McCain, who can look forward to at least a couple of months of near uncontested general election campaigning and burying those skeletons in his closet, before the Democratic presidential candidate can start effectively beating him over the head with his own hypocrisy.

[CaptainChewbacca]

I wonder if McCain will announce a VP prior to the convention. J.C. Watts' keeps popping up, and him in the VP slot would likely hurt Obama's appeal.