March 4 primary discussion and results

[Steven Snyder]

Oh, right, registered Republican can't vote for an opposing party's presidential candidate? Or someone registered to either party, for that matter?

Some Texan native will correct me, but I believe they can register for either party the day they vote, and so Republicans were able to cross over.

Yes,

You walk into the line with your card and they ask you "Democrat or Republican", then you are moved to your respective area.

[Spin Echo]

From what I've read, Obama appears to have a double digit lead over Clinton in the caucus. So even though she may have won the popular vote in the primary, Obama may come out ahead in delegates from the caucus. Isn't modern democracy grand?

Actually, the most recent CNN results have Obama clinging to a 4% lead over Clinton with less than 40% of the caucus results tallied. It wouldn't surprise me if Clinton eked out a Texas caucus victory by the end of today as well. Already, the news outlets are going on about how Clinton's campaign has turned the corner, devoting a very scant few sentences at the end to the fact that it's not going to matter one whit to Obama's lead in pledged delegates (and very small lead in delegates overall.)

Damn. The stuff I had read must have been really early.

Clinton has started hinting at a "Dream Ticket" of her and Obama, with her on top of course. I'm not sure what to make of that.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

She wants her victory to sound inevitable, that's all.

Instead, it's going to go to smoke filled rooms in the summer.

[General Zod]

Damn. The stuff I had read must have been really early.

Clinton has started hinting at a "Dream Ticket" of her and Obama, with her on top of course. I'm not sure what to make of that.

I think the article on CNN put it best. She wants people to vote under the impression that vote for her is a vote for both, even though this most likely won't be the case.

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

From what I've read, Obama appears to have a double digit lead over Clinton in the caucus. So even though she may have won the popular vote in the primary, Obama may come out ahead in delegates from the caucus. Isn't modern democracy grand?

Actually, the most recent CNN results have Obama clinging to a 4% lead over Clinton with less than 40% of the caucus results tallied. It wouldn't surprise me if Clinton eked out a Texas caucus victory by the end of today as well. Already, the news outlets are going on about how Clinton's campaign has turned the corner, devoting a very scant few sentences at the end to the fact that it's not going to matter one whit to Obama's lead in pledged delegates (and very small lead in delegates overall.)

Damn. The stuff I had read must have been really early.

Clinton has started hinting at a "Dream Ticket" of her and Obama, with her on top of course. I'm not sure what to make of that.

Simple. Hillary Clinton wants to be the first nominated woman candidate of a major party for President and she doesn't care if she has to guarantee a McCain victory to do it. A Clinton/Obama ticket has been discussed on this board before, and I believe the consensus was that combining them onto the same ticket would actually hurt the Democrats' chances of taking the White House. Sure, the dedicated Democratic base would vote for a Clinton/Obama ticket, because they know McCain is Shrub Lite. But I imagine more than a few of the people who've supported Obama would not support a Clinton/Obama ticket since given the race-baiting and other general vitriol Clinton has directed at Obama in recent weeks, Obama agreeing to play second fiddle to Hillary would smack heavily of selling out and compromising on his principles, and the people who voted for Clinton because Obama's a brown person will probably desert Clinton if Obama was on her ticket.

[Baal]

I actually listened to a few minutes of the Hillary speech last night and I found one thing really funny.

She is spouting off her line about being able to win the "big" states and starts to list them off.

While doing this she includes Florida and Michigan. Obama was not even on the ballot in Michigan and since both were stripped of delegates I seem to remember Obama agreeing not to appear in either state or campaign there.

Now what really amuses me is then while bouncing between CNN, MSNBC, and FOXNews (yes I enjoy hearing all the morons blather) not a single commentator calls her on the fact that she is basically packing her win list with no-value states that the party her faction dominates stripped of their delegates.

One day I want to live in the same reality as Clinton. It must be a very pretty place where you can warp reality to fit whatever you want it to.


I also find it quite humurous that the talking heads love to talk about how the Democrat primary system is more democratic than the Republican system yet under the Democrat system you can have situations like Nevada where Clinton wins pop vote and Obama wins more delegates, and where you might have the same in Texas.

[Stravo]

First of all, I was depressed that she did as well she did. I know that mathemtically she just can't pull this one out and Obama said so (good for him) during his concession/celebration speech down in San Antonio last night and proiceeded to talk about how he was going to run against McCain. Good for him.

However I am really confused as to why not a single talking head has brought up the very certain reality that numbers wise, unless we see a total implosion of the Obama campaign she just cannot pull this one out. They're all talking about how she's a contender again, this is not decided yet, this will go to the convention, momentum is switching back to Hillary. But not a single solitary "Expert" pointed out the near inevitability of an Obama win - not on FoXNews, CNN, ABC, MSNBC. I was switching around looking for something on that angle and they all avoided it - one on CNN even going so far as to say "Hillary is running on the idea that numbers don't matter." Well of COURSE THEY DO asshole. This is all about numbers and for you to gleefully hop on the Harpy bandwagon of "Numbers don't matter" makes you a dishonest fucktard.

The news wants this to be perceived as an undecided race because it makes it exciting. For them to sit there and say "She won Texas and Ohio but in the end she only gained a handful of delegates and statistically she cannot win anyway" takes the drama out of this election and the ratings out of their coverage.

The news business is precisely that. A business. And it shows.

[The Spartan]

From what I've read, Obama appears to have a double digit lead over Clinton in the caucus. So even though she may have won the popular vote in the primary, Obama may come out ahead in delegates from the caucus. Isn't modern democracy grand?

No, and, in fact, this is only reminding me why I ignored the primaries in the past.

You sure? *snip Limbaugh's Bullfuckery*

I was. But I hadn't realized Il Douche had stepped in to stir shit up. I generally try to avoid anything that corpulent pill popper has to do with he pisses me off so much.

[D.Turtle]

The news wants this to be perceived as an undecided race because it makes it exciting. For them to sit there and say "She won Texas and Ohio but in the end she only gained a handful of delegates and statistically she cannot win anyway" takes the drama out of this election and the ratings out of their coverage.

The news business is precisely that. A business. And it shows.

In my opinion, this is the biggest part as to why the Media isn't pointing out the fact that Hillary can not win the pledged delegate vote.

Even if she wins by a 24.9% margin in every single election yet to come, she would still be losing the pledged delegate numbers. And this result is impossible. The next states voting are Wyoming and Mississippi, which are already leaning towards Obama, not to mention lots of other states that she has no chance to win..

Thr thing is this: About one third of the remaining pledged delegates were at stake yesterday. She will pick up maybe 15-20 delegates in comparison to Obama. This leaves her still more than 130 delegates behind.

The only reason that she is still in the race, is the fact that she has a lead in the superdelegates number - a lead which has only existed because she was the "inevitable" nominee, netting her lots of early endorsers. This lead has been continually eroded as the Primary has been continuing.

Look for Obama closing this thing before the Pennsylvania Primary, by announcing his Fundraising totals of February (which will crush Clintons numbers - not to mention McCains), by pointing out the insurmountable pledged delegate advantage, and by going into the lead with superdelegates by trotting out the more than 50 superdelegates ready to endorse him.

[18-Till-I-Die]

You know what gets me about this, is that i keep hearing this bullshit "Obama has a glass jaw!" Obama's campaign cant take the heat!" and they're acting like that "red phone" ad had any effect at all.

Firstly, i doubt it. Unless there was some backmasking effect i didnt pick up on, i seriously doubt it was that effective. And...God help us...if it is, Jesus Christ but Clinton screwed up! Look, i dont have the same amount of venom and utter disgust in her that others do (i dont know why they do, but i dont) but if she actually opened this can of wroms and, by some miracle, it did pull the dems towards her...Christ lady! Do you know how you're playing into McCain's paws?

Secondly, Clinton won two states that, from my perspective, seemed to be a given. Texas has a huge Latino population, and frankly, they seem to hate Obama for some obscure reason. Ohio...is Ohio. I didnt expect him to win those states, to be honest i expected him to lose by a wider margin--he came DANGEROUSLY close to winning both, Texas more than Ohio, and that tells me he has REAL and tangible electability. That says to me a lot of blue collar types and whites came out to vote for him, not just yuppies and black people like it's been so far.

Thirdly, Obama is still leagues ahead where it counts: the numbers. Unless he does something fantastically stupid in the next few days (knock on wood) i simply don't see Clinton winning this thing.

I find it disturbing how many people in the media really don't seem to ever point this out; i think it goes beyond merely wanting to hadd "spice" to the election for ratings or something, it seems almost like they're actively trying to downplay Obama's lead for some reason. For too long this country's been run by old, old, old crusty ass white men...and if the Media keeps this bullshit up it will be next year too, in the form of McCain. Just once i'd like to vote for someone born in the Twentieth Century, is that too fucking much to ask.

[CJvR]

I find it disturbing how many people in the media really don't seem to ever point this out; i think it goes beyond merely wanting to hadd "spice" to the election for ratings or something, it seems almost like they're actively trying to downplay Obama's lead for some reason.

The closer the race the better the show is, and if it goes the distance then conspiracy nuts and Hollywood will have lots of fun speculating in what went on behind close door when whoever won the nomination. Why on earth would the media want to end the tension by whining about something as boring as facts?

[Surlethe]

From the Obama campaign:

Our projections show the most likely outcome of yesterday's elections will be that Hillary Clinton gained 187 delegates, and we gained 183.

That's a net gain of 4 delegates out of more than 370 delegates available from all the states that voted.

For comparison, that's less than half our net gain of 9 delegates from the District of Columbia alone. It's also less than our net gain of 8 from Nebraska, or 12 from Washington State. And it's considerably less than our net gain of 33 delegates from Georgia.

The task for the Clinton campaign yesterday was clear. In order to have a plausible path to the nomination, they needed to score huge delegate victories and cut into our lead.

They failed.

It's clear, though, that Senator Clinton wants to continue an increasingly desperate, increasingly negative -- and increasingly expensive -- campaign to tear us down.

That's her decision. But it's not stopping John McCain, who clinched the Republican nomination last night, from going on the offensive. He's already made news attacking Barack, and that will only become more frequent in the coming days.

Right now, it's essential for every single supporter of Barack Obama to step up and help fight this two-front battle. In the face of attacks from Hillary Clinton and John McCain, we need to be ready to take them on.

So, according to Obama's campaign, there was no practical net change in delegate count last night.

[Big Phil]

Politics is all about perception and expectations. Hillary Clinton has been successfully redefining expectations since she got hammered in Iowa, and did it again this week: if Obama didn't win all four states yesterday, it was a loss for Obama. Now anyone looking at this argument critically knows it's a sack of shit, but since when did the press start looking at things critically.

What sells more headlines? "OBAMA LOSES TEXAS AND OHIO!" or "Hillary squeaks out narrow wins in two states, and gains no ground on Obama."

Unless Obama implodes or Clinton suddenly catches fire, Obama is the nominee; it'll just take a bit longer than I would have hoped.

[Elfdart]

So, according to Obama's campaign, there was no practical net change in delegate count last night.

That's right. On top of that, Wyoming and Mississippi will hold their primaries in the next week or so and Obama should win both by big margins -more than enough to erase Hillary's measly gain from last night. Considering that it took Hillary and a bunch of mischievous Republitards to win Texas, Obama did well and more importantly will get more delegates from Texas anyway.

About last night:

I went to the local rec center to vote. The crowd was HUGE. Then we split off into out caucuses. Because everything was about as well organized as a four monkeys fucking a soccer ball, we didn't actually get to do anything for two and a half hours. On top of that, our precinct was scheduled to be held in a room with a sign over the door "Maximum Occupancy: 36".There were 107 of us. I pointed this out to the election officials, plus the fact that there were a number of elderly and handicapped people who needed to sit down (and not be standing shoulder-to-shoulder), and this was all extremely stupid, since all three precincts could easily meet in separate parts of the gymnasium in the same building. Finally, the fire and police departments ordered the proceedings out of that room and into the gym.

Because I spoke up, I was "rewarded" by being nominated and elected precinct chairman (meaning I attend the county convention later this month) before I could get a word in edgewise and in spite of the fact that I was an Obama supporter while my precinct went 72-35 for Hillary.

Memo to Elfdart:

Keep your fucking mouth SHUT!

[Flagg]

So, according to Obama's campaign, there was no practical net change in delegate count last night.

That's right. On top of that, Wyoming and Mississippi will hold their primaries in the next week or so and Obama should win both by big margins -more than enough to erase Hillary's measly gain from last night. Considering that it took Hillary and a bunch of mischievous Republitards to win Texas, Obama did well and more importantly will get more delegates from Texas anyway.

About last night:

I went to the local rec center to vote. The crowd was HUGE. Then we split off into out caucuses. Because everything was about as well organized as a four monkeys fucking a soccer ball, we didn't actually get to do anything for two and a half hours. On top of that, our precinct was scheduled to be held in a room with a sign over the door "Maximum Occupancy: 36".There were 107 of us. I pointed this out to the election officials, plus the fact that there were a number of elderly and handicapped people who needed to sit down (and not be standing shoulder-to-shoulder), and this was all extremely stupid, since all three precincts could easily meet in separate parts of the gymnasium in the same building. Finally, the fire and police departments ordered the proceedings out of that room and into the gym.

Because I spoke up, I was "rewarded" by being nominated and elected precinct chairman (meaning I attend the county convention later this month) before I could get a word in edgewise and in spite of the fact that I was an Obama supporter while my precinct went 72-35 for Hillary.

Memo to Elfdart:

Keep your fucking mouth SHUT!

Do you cast a vote at the county convention? And if so, are you obligated to vote for Hillary at the county convention?

[Elfdart]

Our precinct gets 20 delegates to the county convention, which will select delegates for the state convention, which will pick delegates for the national convention...

Since Clinton won our precinct by 2-to-1, she gets 13 while Obama gets 7 (myself included). However, those 20 delegates only get to vote if they actually show up at the county convention. So if 7 of Hillary's delegates decide not to show (a distinct possibility judging from what I saw last night), tough shit: Obama will have a net gain of one delegate for our precinct.

[CaptainChewbacca]

So is your plan to get the other guys to not show up as a part of a concerted effort, or are you just going to not show up?

[Aaron]

That is just CHEATING

How so? The majority of democracy's (parliamentry ones especially) leave you free to vote for whatever party you want, you don't have to register your affliation. That is a symptom of Yank democracy.

[Fire Fly]

The Obama campaign is not being aggressive enough. You can be aggressive but still above the fray; they essentially ceded the media battle to the Clinton camp. Its not like she doesn't have dirt of her own. And the Obama campaign needs to seriously address the Rezko issue and put it out of its misery once and for all.

And I hope they are throwing every single dollar, volunteer and adviser into Mississippi and Wyoming because overwhelming victories there will restore the pre-March 4 delegate count.

[Guardsman Bass]

Damn it to hell! While I'm not worried about the delegate counts (Obama is still in the lead even after his "losses"), I'm much, much more annoyed over the fact that now this damn primary has to drag ever onward, through virtually all of April and probably into May and June.

Meanwhile, John McCain (being the presumptive frontrunner) gets to spend the whole time launching attacks-of-convenience at either Obama or Clinton, while spending his days becoming a better buddy to all of the key people involved in fundraising and campaigning on his side of the field. Meaning that by the time the Democrats finally get a nominee, he probably will be in a much stronger position to compete, while (assuming he doesn't make an Epic Gaff) Obama gets the unwelcome position of getting redefined John Kerry-style by the Republican Party at the same time that he's got to fight off an aggressive challenge from Hillary Clinton's campaign.

I suppose that, on the bright side, at least Obama seems to have the money to fight two wars at once, assuming he picks the right strategies. That's better than the financial hand Kerry was given right after his battle with John Edwards wrapped up.

Still, it is bloody annoying. The Republican candidates were supposed to be the divisive ones as of last year; the ones that dragged the whole bloody thing out to the Republican Convention, while the Democrats rallied around one candidate or another. Who'd have thought so many of the Republican candidates would have turned out to be so damn flaky in their appeal?

[Uraniun235]

My political science professor is almost giddy at the prospect of Oregon's primary results actually being something approaching noteworthy. He also suggested that the ongoing primary battle within the Democratic party might reduce McCain to relative obscurity, whereas Hillary and Barack continue to enjoy free press.

[FSTargetDrone]

That is just CHEATING

How so? The majority of democracy's (parliamentry ones especially) leave you free to vote for whatever party you want, you don't have to register your affliation. That is a symptom of Yank democracy.

The registering on the day of the vote and switching parties isn't available to everyone. It varies state by state. In Pennsylvania, you have to be a registered Democrat or Republican to vote in a Primary. So I've had to change my affiliation from Independent to Democrat (no later than a month before the vote, which will be next month).

[TimothyC]

Some Texan native will correct me, but I believe they can register for either party the day they vote, and so Republicans were able to cross over.

That is just CHEATING

Then you'll hate the Ohio system even more: Because most of the poll workers in my county are elderly or high school seniors, it's not only possible, but VIABLE to stay registered with one party, and vote for the other. I watched that happen yesterday with the two people directly in front of me (republicans voting for a democratic candidate).

While I do disagree with the idea that this would be cheating in general (because you get only one vote you can't vote in your party's primary), I do agree in this case (because the republican side was locked up for all intents and purposes).

[Natorgator]

Hillary can't win. It's pretty much mathematically impossible at this point. Even if she wins every remaining contest by 25%, she's still behind by at least 50 delegates.

[Invictus ChiKen]

How big a win will Obama need to render Florida and Michigan irrelevant if Clinton gets them into play?