The Fed Rescue Has Failed

[Einhander Sn0m4n]

Would going to total war with China, Russia, Iran, India et al (or somehow shifting to a complete war economy) be enough to reverse or at least halt a recession?

If we went to war with another nuclear power, it'd certainly prevent a recession from biting you in the butt... question is, do you think that "being dead" is a reasonable alternative to sitting out a recession?

Like a sudden sledgehammer-blow to the teeth, I am immediately reminded of 95% of the drug commercials on the fucking tube, the other 5% being anti-marijuana propaganda.

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

Would going to total war with China, Russia, Iran, India et al (or somehow shifting to a complete war economy) be enough to reverse or at least halt a recession?

Not that I'm actually advocating committing suicide to avoid cancer.

It's like treating a migraine with an overdose of heroin. Sure the high will take your pain away, but the coming down afterwards part is lethal. And the way we switch to a war economy involves printing money and issuing lots and lots of debt. And once there, we're building things that have no use after a war (bombs, tanks, guided missiles, rifles.)

In short, we'd be amassing even more debt, setting ourselves up for a hefty dose of post-war inflation (making the ensuring depression much worse,) and transferring our economic focus from things people can't eat (iPods, SUVs, 42" plasma TVs, Google) to other things people can't eat (tanks, bombs, airplanes, automatic rifles.)

[Darth Wong]

Where the fuck did this widespread notion of "war helps the economy" come from anyway? It's total bullshit. Wars helped empires in the past only if they were able to plunder conquered lands for slaves and treasure. Otherwise they're nothing more than a huge financial drain. The US caught a break with a rather unusual circumstance after WW2, where they effectively opened up huge new markets for their manufactured goods by dropping their isolationist stance at the same time the rest of the developed world virtually destroyed its own industrial base.

[aerius]

Where the fuck did this widespread notion of "war helps the economy" come from anyway?

Star Trek.
Ferengi Rule of Acquisition #34: War is good for business.

[Battlehymn Republic]

Well, World War II brought not just the U.S., but much of the world, out of the Great Depression. So the meme's been really strong ever since.

[Big Orange]

Big Orange: Yes. That's what I refer to. Also consider the fact that the VA is falling apart and we'll have hundreds of thousands of angry, embittered veterans returning from the war who believe they were stabbed in the back by the new left-wing administration.

The idea that American political discourse could degenerate into Freikorps and leftist groups (as more people turn to marxism as the middle class for the first time plunges in value) clashing in the streets is not an improbable one.

And the Far Right nuts will have more of a excuse than usual to blame popular scapegoats like the JOOOS (Alan Greenspan), LIBERALZ (Democrat Party), and MOOSLEMZ (could be President Obama) for the upcoming crashing into the basement of the American economy. In the worst case scenario the United States would drop pretenses of being a world policeman, pulling back many overseas military forces to the homeland in the effort to stop American citizens from tearing each other apart over political, religious, social, and ethnic reasons (the divides in US society being grossly exacerbated by genuinely harsh times).

I agree with Keevan-Colton that the UK and America needs a lot of the original manufacturing base back to help rebuild a rather hollow economy that is sorely lacking reliable employment opportunities - even large sections of the IT, administration, and service economies are being packed up and sent to Chindia by shortsighted companies seeking to the cut corners at the expense of home economies, employees, administrative efficiency, and even the longterm welfare of the companies themselves (which are most possibly disproportionately managed by uninspired and insipid greedy morons, very high-functioning psychotics, and needlessly ruthless sociopaths who are entirely concerned about themselves, not giving a fuck about society, their employees and shareholders, or even their companies).

I only agree with Stuart Mackey about the pitfalls of economic protectionism in regards to sweeping nationalization of the consumer economy and blocks on international trade (which was partially responsible for the Great Depression), but at the same time the United States was able to become a superpower, both ecomomically and militarily, mainly due to it's manufacturing base (Battlehymn Republic, how did Britain and Germany got "out of the Great Depression", when they were both economically driven to breaking point early on with Britain having crippling debts owed to the US, and Germany ending up a smoldering crater?).

[ArmorPierce]

Where the fuck did this widespread notion of "war helps the economy" come from anyway? It's total bullshit. Wars helped empires in the past only if they were able to plunder conquered lands for slaves and treasure. Otherwise they're nothing more than a huge financial drain. The US caught a break with a rather unusual circumstance after WW2, where they effectively opened up huge new markets for their manufactured goods by dropping their isolationist stance at the same time the rest of the developed world virtually destroyed its own industrial base.

It comes from the Keynesian economic model. It concludes that spending money anywhere basically, is good for the economy. It Brings up world war two as evidence to support it.

[Big Orange]

Where the fuck did this widespread notion of "war helps the economy" come from anyway? It's total bullshit. Wars helped empires in the past only if they were able to plunder conquered lands for slaves and treasure. Otherwise they're nothing more than a huge financial drain. The US caught a break with a rather unusual circumstance after WW2, where they effectively opened up huge new markets for their manufactured goods by dropping their isolationist stance at the same time the rest of the developed world virtually destroyed its own industrial base.

It comes from the Keynesian economic model. It concludes that spending money anywhere basically, is good for the economy. It Brings up world war two as evidence to support it.

That seems dogmatic and putting a cart before a horse (since wars bankrupt economies and have drained out empires).

[Keevan_Colton]

Yes, but it rocked for america, it just sucks for other people...dont you know america is the world?

[Nephtys]

Would going to total war with China, Russia, Iran, India et al (or somehow shifting to a complete war economy) be enough to reverse or at least halt a recession?

Not that I'm actually advocating committing suicide to avoid cancer.

It's like treating a migraine with an overdose of heroin. Sure the high will take your pain away, but the coming down afterwards part is lethal. And the way we switch to a war economy involves printing money and issuing lots and lots of debt. And once there, we're building things that have no use after a war (bombs, tanks, guided missiles, rifles.)

In short, we'd be amassing even more debt, setting ourselves up for a hefty dose of post-war inflation (making the ensuring depression much worse,) and transferring our economic focus from things people can't eat (iPods, SUVs, 42" plasma TVs, Google) to other things people can't eat (tanks, bombs, airplanes, automatic rifles.)

Absurd. Major wars between leading nations for resources and wealth have long since become obsolete. Nowadays, global trade means that if a nation has some natural resource, product, labor, etc... instead of conquering them or claiming suzerainty in the Imperialistic style of the turn of the century sort, you now trade with them economically. Naturally, the First World with it's superior resources, technology, industry and so forth has used this.

The economies of the world are so intertwined, that if you smash up India or China, you're also indirectly breaking the knees of the US or UK or whoever.

Also, this thread has a lot of 'Why, if the US made something like steel, things would be better!'. This is unfounded and reeks of irrational nostalgia. The total manufacturing sector has not shrunk. It's GROWN over 'the good old days' of steel mills and auto plants of the 50. However, the only difference is that Information and Services (Tech jobs, medicine, professionals, as well as service jobs) have grown at 5 times the rate. Making it suddenly that the US produces cars at a loss of opportunity cost compared to having China make them... that doesn't do a damn thing.

[Darth Wong]

Well, World War II brought not just the U.S., but much of the world, out of the Great Depression. So the meme's been really strong ever since.

You actually think that Europe and Asia were better off after WW2 than before? What the fuck have you been smoking?

[Keevan_Colton]

Well, World War II brought not just the U.S., but much of the world, out of the Great Depression. So the meme's been really strong ever since.

You actually think that Europe and Asia were better off after WW2 than before? What the fuck have you been smoking?

To give a sense of scale, the UK only just finished paying off its debt for WW2 to the US last year.

[Adrian Laguna]

Also consider the fact that the VA is falling apart and we'll have hundreds of thousands of angry, embittered veterans returning from the war who believe they were stabbed in the back by the new left-wing administration.

I can totally see how this would happen. We pull out of Iraq, oil peaks, and everyone starts yelling post hoc ergo propter hoc.

The idea that American political discourse could degenerate into Freikorps and leftist groups (as more people turn to marxism as the middle class for the first time plunges in value) clashing in the streets is not an improbable one.

Oh this would be such fun times. I lean fairly heavily left, but I also hate Communists and Marxists with a burning passion. If the leftists go too far left there will be this urge to jump ship and go fascist... except that in this country the fascists are likely to side with the fundies, the one group I hate more than the fucking Commies.

[Adrian Laguna]

To give a sense of scale, the UK only just finished paying off its debt for WW2 to the US last year.

Isn't the UK still not done paying off WW1? Were those debts forgiven or are they still outstanding?

[ArmorPierce]

Where the fuck did this widespread notion of "war helps the economy" come from anyway? It's total bullshit. Wars helped empires in the past only if they were able to plunder conquered lands for slaves and treasure. Otherwise they're nothing more than a huge financial drain. The US caught a break with a rather unusual circumstance after WW2, where they effectively opened up huge new markets for their manufactured goods by dropping their isolationist stance at the same time the rest of the developed world virtually destroyed its own industrial base.

It comes from the Keynesian economic model. It concludes that spending money anywhere basically, is good for the economy. It Brings up world war two as evidence to support it.

That seems dogmatic and putting a cart before a horse (since wars bankrupt economies and have drained out empires).

Well, it's under the assumption when the war is going good for the nation in it rather than being a fight to the death struggle with resources being cut off and whatever.

[Battlehymn Republic]

Well, World War II brought not just the U.S., but much of the world, out of the Great Depression. So the meme's been really strong ever since.

You actually think that Europe and Asia were better off after WW2 than before? What the fuck have you been smoking?

Uh, I'm in America right now. We're highly parochial, if you haven't noticed.

[Darth Wong]

Well, World War II brought not just the U.S., but much of the world, out of the Great Depression. So the meme's been really strong ever since.

You actually think that Europe and Asia were better off after WW2 than before? What the fuck have you been smoking?

Uh, I'm in America right now. We're highly parochial, if you haven't noticed.

You say that as if it's an excuse for posting the most preposterous bullshit I've seen on this board all day, with the exception of the anarchism thread in HoS.

[Battlehymn Republic]

I'm talking about why the meme would flourish in the U.S. Perhaps I shouldn't have said "much of the world", though didn't the armament and build-up to the war at least revitalized some economies? But as far as your initial question goes: 'Where the fuck did this widespread notion of "war helps the economy" come from anyway?'

America did well economically from World War II. The Great Depression was one of the worst economic downturns of recent memory, and World War II was certainly the most major wars of recent history. It's not hard to see how such a misconception would spread. At least among the general public. Or are you saying that academics are thinking that "war is good for the economy" as well? And what did you mean by widespread, anyways? Outside of North America? I didn't think that Europeans or Latin Americans or East Asians or anyone else in the developed world thought that.

[Darth Wong]

I'm talking about why the meme would flourish in the U.S. Perhaps I shouldn't have said "much of the world", though didn't the armament and build-up to the war at least revitalized some economies? But as far as your initial question goes: 'Where the fuck did this widespread notion of "war helps the economy" come from anyway?'

America did well economically from World War II. The Great Depression was one of the worst economic downturns of recent memory, and World War II was certainly the most major wars of recent history. It's not hard to see how such a misconception would spread. At least among the general public. Or are you saying that academics are thinking that "war is good for the economy" as well? And what did you mean by widespread, anyways? Outside of North America? I didn't think that Europeans or Latin Americans or East Asians or anyone else in the developed world thought that.

It's widespread among English speaking people who post on message boards.

[Battlehymn Republic]

Most of whom come from North America, right? And Americans are, on average, rather parochial? And have good images about the Greatest Generation and the Arsenal of Democracy and the prosperity of the '50s and all that when you think of the immediate post-World War II world, right?

Well, that's my theory of how the misconception of "war is good for economy" is widespread.

[Darth Wong]

Most of whom come from North America, right? And Americans are, on average, rather parochial? And have good images about the Greatest Generation and the Arsenal of Democracy and the prosperity of the '50s and all that when you think of the immediate post-World War II world, right?

Well, that's my theory of how the misconception of "war is good for economy" is widespread.

Well then perhaps you should have said "Stupid Americans believe that World War II brought not just the U.S., but much of the world, out of the Great Depression" instead of saying "Well, World War II brought not just the U.S., but much of the world, out of the Great Depression."

[Battlehymn Republic]

Yeah, I was wrong on that point, and recanted.

But didn't the build-up to World War II revitalize the economies of Germany and any other European countries? At the cost of sacrificing consumer goods and individual freedoms, and instituting measures such as rationing, of course.

[Darth Wong]

Yeah, I was wrong on that point, and recanted.

But didn't the build-up to World War II revitalize the economies of Germany and any other European countries? At the cost of sacrificing consumer goods and individual freedoms, and instituting measures such as rationing, of course.

It's a little difficult to say that an economy is being "revitalized" when the living standard is plummeting, isn't it?

[Battlehymn Republic]

Maybe the "war for economy" people like jobless recoveries.

Okay, so I was wrong. Only the U.S., and maybe some nations in the Americas that were pretty much untouched by the war, benefited from World War II. Not much of the world.

[The Yosemite Bear]

ACtually the whole war economy thing has been around far longer then that. when your empire is small and lean, using brute force will increase ones economic benefit for a short period of time. however it's not sustainable. people tend to look at Rome when they conquered this, this and this around 200 BC, not when the same empire was putting down rebellions in Jeruselem, and dealing with Proto-mongols from eastern europe back in 65AD....