Obama sweeps Wyoming

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Mr Bean
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Obama sweeps Wyoming

Post by Mr Bean »

CNN Calls it 61% Obama to 38% Hillary
CNN wrote: CHEYENNE, Wyoming (CNN) -- Presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama has won the Wyoming Democratic caucus, CNN projected Saturday.
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Sen. Barack Obama poses with University of Wyoming mascot Pistol Pete in Laramie on Friday.
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Obama led rival Sen. Hillary Clinton at 59 percent to 40 percent, with 96 percent of precincts reporting.

The caucus thrust the state, which has only 12 delegates, into the spotlight because the close race between Obama and Clinton means that every delegate counts.

Although Wyoming typically is not a stop for Democrats looking for delegates to clinch the party's presidential nomination, its numbers could make a difference this year because of the delegate deadlock.

With slightly more than 600 delegates left at stake, every remaining contest is crucial to both candidates. The two are separated by fewer than 100 delegates, CNN estimates, with Obama leading Clinton 1,527 to 1,428. Video See where the Democratic race stands »

CNN estimates that Obama will win at least seven delegates and Clinton will win at least four, with one delegate still outstanding. Five of Wyoming's 12 delegates will be allocated at the state convention, which will be held Memorial Day in Jackson, but the allocation will be based on caucus results.

"We are thrilled with this near split in delegates and are grateful to the people of Wyoming for their support," Clinton's campaign manager, Maggie Williams, said in a statement.
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"Although the Obama campaign predicted victory in Wyoming weeks ago, we worked hard to present Sen. Clinton's vision to the caucus-goers, and we thank them for turning out today."

On Friday, both senators were in Wyoming to lure last-minute votes. Clinton held town hall meetings in Cheyenne and Casper, and also dispatched former President Clinton to help drum up support.

Obama spoke at a town hall meeting in Casper, using the opportunity to criticize Clinton's 2002 vote on the war in Iraq.

"I will bring this war to an end in 2009, so don't be confused ... when Senator Clinton is not willing to acknowledge that she voted for war," he said. "I don't want to play politics on this issue, because she doesn't have standing to question my position on this issue."

The state's Democratic governor, Dave Freudenthal, said he has endorsed neither candidate because, in his view, they have mostly neglected "Western issues" like the environment, water and energy. However, he said he was lobbied hard by both campaigns in the weeks leading up to the caucus.

Former Gov. Mike Sullivan backed Clinton some time ago. State Democratic Party chief John Millin has endorsed Obama.
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"Seriously, I never imagined when I took this job that we would see the day when the two front-runners for the Democratic presidential nomination would hold events in Wyoming on the eve of our county caucuses," state Democratic Party spokesman Bill Luckett wrote on the state party's Web site this week.

"I think there's a reasonable chance we'll get our 15 minutes in the national spotlight when the deal goes down on Saturday."
Obama won either 8 to 7 delegates from this state depending on who you ask. On another note, lets review

Obama has 1378(Or 1379) Pledged Delegates w/supers he has 1588(Or 1589)

Hillary has 1223 Pledged Delegates w/supers she has 1465.

Meaning with super factored in he still has 123 vote lead, without supers it grows to 155 vote lead. Either way, he's still in the lead and still far in the lead.

Our next state is Mississippi, good luck figuring that out Obama's either projected to win with near 68% of the vote, or just edge it out at 52%.

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Post by Patrick Degan »

So much for that Big Momentum Swing™. Ah, but I forget, Wyoming doesn't really count. Neither will Mississippi, I suppose...
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Drooling Iguana
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Re: Obama sweeps Wyoming

Post by Drooling Iguana »

Mr Bean wrote:Obama won either 8 to 7 delegates from this state depending on who you ask. On another note, lets review

Obama has 1378(Or 1379) Pledged Delegates w/supers he has 1588(Or 1589)

Hillary has 1223 Pledged Delegates w/supers she has 1465.

Meaning with super factored in he still has 123 vote lead, without supers it grows to 155 vote lead. Either way, he's still in the lead and still far in the lead.

Our next state is Mississippi, good luck figuring that out Obama's either projected to win with near 68% of the vote, or just edge it out at 52%.
So has he already erased the gains Clinton made on Tuesday?
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Mr Bean
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Re: Obama sweeps Wyoming

Post by Mr Bean »

Drooling Iguana wrote: So has he already erased the gains Clinton made on Tuesday?
He's eight delegates away from that(Or 7).

After March 4th in total Hillary picked up 10 delegates on him, he's gotten two(maybe three) tonight. If he beats the 60% mark in Mississippi then he will have erased the gains and be up a delegate when we go into PA which Hillary is almost 100% going to win by 53%-58% due to lots of old money democrat ties and it's one of the very few states she has an actual network in.

So in Mississippi if he wins it by 62% or more he's up, if he wins it by 59%-61% he will have made it a sum zero from March 4th, and anything less he of course he will be "down" by anywhere from 5 to 1 delegates.

But of course the gains he has made will be erased in Pennsylvania, but in turn the gains by Hillary will certainly be erased by Obama in North Carolina and Indiana.

And that's it, every state after that is pro Obama with the possible exception of Guam and Puerto Rico, Oregon? Forget about it, Kentucky? Maybe but unlikely, Montana and South Dakota? Please.

Either way the race while not raped up still has one last shot at being called, and that's in Pennsylvania, if he can win it, even with a squeeker it's going to be Obama winning 34-38 states to Hillary's 13-21.

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The Yosemite Bear
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Post by The Yosemite Bear »

I hear it's comming down to the non states

Marianas Islands, Gaum, and P.R.
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Post by D.Turtle »

Obama got 7 delegates, Clinton 5. Which means Obama gets 2 more than Clinton.

March 4 netted Clinton a total of about 10 delegates more than Obama, so he hasn't erased the gains of Clinton.

On Tuesday is the Mississippi Primary, which should be an easy Obama victory and should net him enough delegates to pretty much erase the pledged delegate gain made by Clinton in the March 4 primary.

If you count in the superdelegate endorsements at 2008 Democratic Convention Watch you see that since March 4th they have added 11 superdelegates to the Obama list vs 4 on the Clinton list. So if you add that in, her gain has already been pretty much erased.

It should be noted that they only add names onto their list who have officially announced their endorsement of one candidate or the other.

Clinton is down to a 40 person lead in the superdelegate endorsements (from a high point of 97 on February 10).
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Post by Drooling Iguana »

I misread Mr Bean's post as saying that Obama gained 7-8 more delegates than Clinton in this primary, rather than gaining 7-8 in total. Yeah, he still had a fair bit left to do before he cancels out the gains Clinton (I'm not going to refer to a Presidential candidate by her first name) made in Ohio/Rhode Island, but then again she has a hell of a lot more to do before she cancels out the gains Obama made in every other state since Super Tuesday.
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Post by brianeyci »

Drooling Iguana wrote:She has a hell of a lot more to do before she cancels out the gains Obama made in every other state since Super Tuesday.
Actually it's near impossible because the Democrats work by proportional representation.

To put it in perspective for the students, it's like going into the final exam of a course with nothing or near nothing. Even though the final exam is weighted 40 or even 60% for an undergraduate, the idea that you can go in with nothing and still pass the course is ridiculous. Because all the results are weighted, Hillary doesn't just have to win by 10 or 20 percent margins. She'd have to win by incredible margins, in complete blowout territory like 60/40 or 80/20.

Students know even with the majority of the marks left, if they're not close to 50% by the drop date (usually the middle of the term) to drop faster than upside down Superman. I think Patrick Degan is right -- Hillary's ruined her career by not quitting and her drop date has long past. She's clinging onto a delusion of an outside shot, when she was finished as soon as she blew Super Tuesday.
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Post by CaptainChewbacca »

I think it'll come down to just Puerto-Rico. I am pretty sure Guam and the Marianas only get 1 delegate each, and I doubt either candidate will fly out there.
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Post by Xisiqomelir »

Patrick Degan wrote:So much for that Big Momentum Swing™. Ah, but I forget, Wyoming doesn't really count. Neither will Mississippi, I suppose...
MS has the highest black population in the Union, of course it doesn't count.
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