4,000

[SirNitram]

A moment of silence, please.

[The Yosemite Bear]

[Justforfun000]

I was honestly stunned that it got that high. Somehow I lost track of the death toll a while ago. I was gaping at TV earlier today. What a horrible shame. I dearly hope this nightmare will be ending soon.

[K. A. Pital]

The toll is really rising fast...

Could someone explain to me the "surge working" math? 914 dead for the surge year, compared to the previous year 933 and yet earlier year 715? How do they measure the surge helping to reduce deaths?

[Flagg]

Goddamned shame. And totally avoidable, making it all the worse.

[Uraniun235]

The toll is really rising fast...

Could someone explain to me the "surge working" math? 914 dead for the surge year, compared to the previous year 933 and yet earlier year 715? How do they measure the surge helping to reduce deaths?

The surge has failed to accomplish the goals set out when it was introduced. Anyone claiming the surge has "worked" is shifting the goalposts.

[Flagg]

The toll is really rising fast...

Could someone explain to me the "surge working" math? 914 dead for the surge year, compared to the previous year 933 and yet earlier year 715? How do they measure the surge helping to reduce deaths?

The surge has failed to accomplish the goals set out when it was introduced. Anyone claiming the surge has "worked" is shifting the goalposts.

And to be fair, the goal of the surge was to increase security in Iraq so as to allow for the political reconciliation to take place, not necessarily to lower the number of American casualties in the short term.

Of course it turns out that most of the security gains were made by simply bribing the Sunni militias to not shoot at us and haven't helped at all with political reconciliation. So it remains a resounding failure. Mission accomplished.

[salm]

Damn, that´s a lot. And still next to nothing compared to the total casualties.

[Keevan_Colton]

The toll is really rising fast...

Could someone explain to me the "surge working" math? 914 dead for the surge year, compared to the previous year 933 and yet earlier year 715? How do they measure the surge helping to reduce deaths?

By percentage?

[Vympel]

By percentage?

If you look at the casualties by month, there's been a precipitous drop in combat deaths from 100+ for three straight months last year to the level of 30 per month that it's been at for the past four or five months. If that level continues throughout this year, the casualties will be significantly lower than the previous years.

Of course, this has more to do with the "Anbar Awakening" (i.e. paying insurgents not to attack American forces) than the Glorious Surge.

[cosmicalstorm]

I wonder what would have happened if they had decided not to invade, was there anyone to take Saddams place or was a civil war uninevitable in the end?

[brianeyci]

The surge has failed to accomplish the goals set out when it was introduced. Anyone claiming the surge has "worked" is shifting the goalposts.

Unfortunately, a conservotard can sidestep this rebuttal by claiming that there were no goals set when the surge started, just like there were no goals set when the War in Iraq started. Sure you can say, the goal was to make lives better for Iraqis, but that's such a nebulous goal that it's difficult to pin them down on it. They set themselves up for victory, so why use their goal that they invented? I can invent a goal for going into the washroom and taking a piss in five minutes, but it doesn't mean anything. Rather, I see no problem in admitting that in the short term, the surge has lowered violence (I'm not a big fan of semantic whoring the word "worked" and when they say the surge worked they're claiming there's less deaths.)

I actually think that Petraeus's counter-insurgency manual, which changed small unit tactics so that Americans are not driving by in humvees but instead walking out, on foot, to challenge dangerous neighborhoods on patrol 3-4 times a day can work. In fact, I called this tactic three years ago, on this board, as the way to lower violence in Baghdad, and it seems the Americans finally put someone in charge with brain enough to figure out to win hearts and minds you can't drive by in a tank or humvee, but get their ass out of their armor and shake hands and enter communities. The problem is theoretically at least, Americans should be sustaining far more casualties than right now with that tactic, since they're exposing themselves. I'm not idealistic enough to believe terrorists suddenly got cowed by many Americans walking through their turf with a big "shoot me" sign on them. This kind of tactic required an increase in American troops for foot patrols, but they should've sustained horrendous casualties walking like that. Something doesn't add up, and it's the extra variable: money.

So it seems Vympel is right, and the pay off insurgents to attack is the main reason there's less deaths. Either that, or the insurgents are husbanding their strength knowing that the Americans will leave soon. But that is conservotard logic and doesn't make much sense either: if I knew someone would leave soon I'd increase my attacks so they wouldn't change their mind and leave faster. But they're terrorists, so logic isn't their forte.

[Dartzap]

So it seems Vympel is right, and the pay off insurgents to attack is the main reason there's less deaths.

According to some recent reports over here, the insurgents in some areas are getting annoyed due to the fact they are not getting paid on time or when are they are paid, its not as much as they were offered :/ I think they said it was in the order of 80,000 people who were in that situation. If they decide to go "Sod this for a lark, CHAAAARRGGGE" someone's going to be in the doodoo.

[brianeyci]

Petraeus is a military commander and a good one at that, and will do the job assigned to him by his civilian masters.

Finally the Americans have someone smart enough to divide and conquer, and to risk American lives to protect Iraqi ones. Had he been in charge right at the start, he probably would've recommended paying former Iraqi soldiers so they wouldn't join a future insurgency, effectively keeping the army together. Then he would've recommended paying off bitter Mullahs and foot patrols through the most dangerous parts of Baghdad.

It could have worked, then.

The problem is it's come years too late. As soon as they get bored or angry like you say Dartzap, we'll see far more deaths since the Americans are exposing themselves with their new tactics, and if the American people are unwilling to pay the price might as well admit it and run rather than do it in halves. But deciding whether the American people are willing to pay the price isn't Petraeus's job -- it's Bush's.

Basically it is wasted money and wasted effort at this point: the best we can hope for is that the insurgents don't get pissed off before the troops withdraw. It is wasted effort because as soon as the Americans withdraw, it will be just like Saigon. Nothing American will remain six months after, except the memories of Americans who came in and broke everything up, then left.

No doubt conservotards will say that because everything is going well in Iraq, the withdrawal should not have happened. They don't realize the Americans are sitting in the eye of the storm.

[SirNitram]

That's enough. Criticizing the war should happen, but this was put up as a memorial thread. I put these up specifically because people do forget, because no one's paying attention to how many people die.

[The Spartan]

Let's not forget there are also tens of thousands more wounded. Some of whom have no outward signs nor debilitating injuries and are, at least physically, capable of living their lives like the rest of us. But there are also many who are permanently disabled through loss of limb, brain damage, various degrees of paralysis, etc. Add in those unable to function normally because of PTSD and the tragedy only grows.

And that's just the occupation forces.

[Darth Wong]

The really sad thing about paying off insurgents is that it's working, but it's not being credited for the improvements. Instead, people credit the Almighty Surge.

The fact is that despite all of the "you can't negotiate with these people" rhetoric from the Republitard set, you can negotiate with these people, and only a fool totally closes that option.

[Ryan Thunder]

I'm not sure how something that leads to simply paying them to not kill Americans is considered a successful negotiation.

If the Americans decide they don't want to pay what (if I understand if correctly) basically amounts to a prolonged ransom, things go back to the shitter.

A successful solution (in my mind) would either severely weaken the insurgent position in the country (which this appears not to have done), or set the stage for something that does (which I guess this could do, but I don't know enough about it to say...)

Otherwise, whoever was paid off could just decide "hey, we want more money" and start all over again.

[Darth Wong]

I'm not sure how something that leads to simply paying them to not kill Americans is considered a successful negotiation.

If the Americans decide they don't want to pay what (if I understand if correctly) basically amounts to a prolonged ransom, things go back to the shitter.

And that's worse than spending $600 billion so far on military operations, with trillions in long-term costs?

[Ryan Thunder]

I'm not sure how something that leads to simply paying them to not kill Americans is considered a successful negotiation.

If the Americans decide they don't want to pay what (if I understand it correctly) basically amounts to a prolonged ransom, things go back to the shitter.

And that's worse than spending $600 billion so far on military operations, with trillions in long-term costs?

Point.

For what little it's worth, though, that money isn't going into the pocket of some AK-toting terrorist somewhere, I figure.

[cosmicalstorm]

Point.

For what little it's worth, though, that money isn't going into the pocket of some AK-toting terrorist somewhere, I figure.

What? Just imagine how much US money is flowing into the border provinces of Iraq right now even without these bribes, want some US issued weapons, GPS, clothing, canned food or toiletpaper cheap? Just ask at any marketplace in Damascus or Teheran.

[The Vortex Empire]

Why'd this war have to start in the first place?

[Fleet Admiral JD]

Here's hoping we don't have to see another four thousand, or another four hundred, or another four.

My friend, you would not tell with such high zest
To children ardent for some desperate glory,
The old Lie: Dulce et decorum est
Pro patria mori.

[Darwin]

Just putting this here for perspective, with no value statement attached.

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/RL32492.pdf

page 10.

Table 4. US Active Duty Military Deaths, 1980 through 2006

Adding up years 1992 to 2000 you get 8035

Adding up years 2001 to present you get 9550

[Voluntaryist]

Does anybody here expect the perpetrators of this crime against humanity (both US and Iraqi deaths) to be held accountable?

And if so, by whom?