What life will be like in 40 years(Cic-1964)

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What life will be like in 40 years(Cic-1964)

Post by Mr Bean »

I come in peace
So this mag gets the idea to forcast 40 years into the future in 1964, how well did they do?
Mechanix Illustrated wrote: What Will Life Be Like in the Year 2008? (Nov, 1968)
Filed under: Sign of the Times — @ 12:16 am
Source: Mechanix Illustrated
Issue: Nov, 1968
More articles from this issue

Well, we do have flat-screen computers you can write on that fit in a briefcase, but I’m still waiting to take my 250 MPH car to a business meeting in another domed city. Perhaps by the end of the year.

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40 Years in the Future

By James R. Berry

IT’S 8 a.m., Tuesday, Nov. 18, 2008, and you are headed for a business appointment 300 mi. away. You slide into your sleek, two-passenger air-cushion car, press a sequence of buttons and the national traffic computer notes your destination, figures out the current traffic situation and signals your car to slide out of the garage. Hands free, you sit back and begin to read the morning paper—which is flashed on a flat TV screen over the car’s dashboard. Tapping a button changes the page.

The car accelerates to 150 mph in the city’s suburbs, then hits 250 mph in less built-up areas, gliding over the smooth plastic road. You whizz past a string of cities, many of them covered by the new domes that keep them evenly climatized year round. Traffic is heavy, typically, but there’s no need to worry. The traffic computer, which feeds and receives signals to and from all cars in transit between cities, keeps vehicles at least 50 yds. apart. There hasn’t been an accident since the system was inaugurated. Suddenly your TV phone buzzes. A business associate wants a sketch of a new kind of impeller your firm is putting out for sports boats. You reach for your attache case and draw the diagram with a pencil-thin infrared flashlight on what looks like a TV screen lining the back of the case. The diagram is relayed to a similar screen in your associate’s office, 200 mi. away. He jabs a button and a fixed copy of the sketch rolls out of the device. He wishes you good luck at the coming meeting and signs off.

Ninety minutes after leaving your home, you slide beneath the dome of your destination city. Your car decelerates and heads for an outer-core office building where you’ll meet your colleagues. After you get out, the vehicle parks itself in a convenient municipal garage to await your return. Private cars are banned inside most city cores. Moving sidewalks and electrams carry the public from one location to another.

With the U.S. population having soared to 350 million, 2008 transportation is among the most important factors keeping the economy running smoothly. Giant transportation hubs called modemixers are located anywhere from 15 to 50 mi. outside all major urban centers. Tube trains, pushed through bores by compressed air, make the trip between modemixer and central city in 10 to 15 minutes.

A major feature of most modemixers is the launching pad from which 200-passenger rockets blast off for other continents. For less well-heeled travelers there are SST and hypersonic planes that carry 200 to 300 passengers at speeds up to 4,000 mph. Short trips— between cities less than 1,000 mi. apart—are handled by slower jumbo jets.

Homes in Mi’s 80th year are practically self-maintaining. Electrostatic precipitators clean the air and climatizers maintain the temperature and humidity at optimum levels. Robots are available to do housework and other simple chores. New materials for siding and interiors are self-cleaning and never peel, chip or crack.

Dwellings for the most part are assembled from prefabricated modules, which can be attached speedily in the configuration that best suits the homeowner. Once the foundation is laid, attaching the modules to make up a two- or three-bedroom house is a job that doesn’t take more than a day. Such modular homes easily can be expanded to accommodate a growing family. A typical wedding present for the 21st century newlyweds is a fully equipped bedroom, kitchen or living room module.

Other conveniences ease kitchenwork. The housewife simply determines in advance her menus for the week, then slips prepackaged meals into the freezer and lets the automatic food utility do the rest. At preset times, each meal slides into the microwave oven and is cooked or thawed. The meal then is served on disposable plastic plates. These plates, as well as knives, forks and spoons of the same material, are so inexpensive they can be discarded after use.

The single most important item in 2008 households is the computer. These electronic brains govern everything from meal preparation and waking up the household to assembling shopping lists and keeping track of the bank balance. Sensors in kitchen appliances, climatizing units, communicators, power supply and other household utilities warn the computer when the item is likely to fail. A repairman will show up even before any obvious breakdown occurs.

Computers also handle travel reservations, relay telephone messages, keep track of birthdays and anniversaries, compute taxes and even figure the monthly bills for electricity, water, telephone and other utilities. Not every family has its private computer. Many families reserve time on a city or regional computer to serve their needs. The machine tallies up its own services and submits a bill, just as it does with other utilities.

Money has all but disappeared. Employers deposit salary checks directly into their employees’ accounts. Credit cards are used for paying all bills. Each time you buy something, the card’s number is fed into the store’s computer station. A master computer then deducts the charge from your bank balance.

Computers not only keep track of money, they make spending it easier. TV-telephone shopping is common. To shop, you simply press the numbered code of a giant shopping center. You press another combination to zero in on the department and the merchandise in which you are interested. When you see what you want, you press a number that signifies “buy,” and the household computer takes over, places the order, notifies the store of the home address and subtracts the purchase price from your bank balance. Much of the family shopping is done this way. Instead of being jostled by crowds, shoppers electronically browse through the merchandise of any number of stores.

People have more time for leisure activities in the year 2008. The average work day is about four hours. But the extra time isn’t totally free. The pace of technological advance is such that a certain amount of a jobholder’s spare time is used in keeping up with the new developments—on the average, about two hours of home study a day.

Most of this study is in the form of programmed TV courses, which can be rented or borrowed from tape _ * libraries. In fact most schooling—from first grade through college—consists of programmed TV courses or lectures via closed circuit. Students visit a campus once or twice a week for personal consultations or for lab work that has to be done on site. Progress of each student is followed by computer, which assigns end term marks on the basis of tests given throughout the term.

Besides school lessons, other educational material is available for TV viewing. You simply press a combination of buttons and the pages flash on your home screen. The world’s information is available to you almost instantaneously.

TV screens cover an entire wall in most homes and show most subjects other than straight text matter in color and three dimensions. In addition to programmed TV and the multiplicity of commercial fare, you can see top Broadway shows, hit movies and current nightclub acts for a nominal charge. Best-selling books are on TV tape and can be borrowed or rented from tape libraries.

A typical vacation in 2008 is to spend a week at an undersea resort, where your hotel room window looks out on a tropical underwater reef, a sunken ship or an ancient, excavated city. Available to guests are two- and three-person submarines in which you can cruise well-marked underwater trails.

Another vacation is a stay < on a hotel satellite. The rocket ride to the satellite and back, plus the vistas of earth and moon, make a memorable vacation jaunt.

While city life in 2008 has changed greatly, the farm has altered even more. Farmers are business executives running operations as automated as factories. TV scanners monitor tractors and other equipment computer programmed to plow, harrow and harvest. Wires imbedded in the ground send control signals to the machines. Computers also keep track of yields-, fertilization, soil composition and other factors influencing crops. At the beginning of each year, a print-out tells the farmer what to plant where, how much to fertilize and how much yield he can expect.

Farming isn't confined to land. Mariculturists have turned areas of the sea into beds of protein-rich seaweed and algae. This raw material is processed into food that looks and tastes like steak and other meats. It also is cheap; families can have steak-like meals twice a day without feeling a budget pinch. Areas in bays or close to shore have been turned into shrimp, lobster, clam and other shellfish ranches, like the cattle spreads of yesteryear.

Medical research has guaranteed that most babies born in the 21st century will live long and healthy lives. Heart disease has virtually been eliminated by drugs and diet. If hearts or other major organs do give trouble, they can be replaced with artificial organs.

Medical examinations are a matter of sitting in a diagnostic chair for a minute or two, then receiving a full health report. Ultrasensitive microphones and electronic sensors in the chair's headrest, back and armrests pick up heartbeat, pulse, breathing rate, galvanic skin response, blood pressure, nerve reflexes and other medical signs. A computer attached to the chair digests these responses, compares them to the normal standard and prints out a full medical report.

No need to worry about failing memory or intelligence either. The intelligence pill is another 21st century commodity. Slow learners or people struck with forgetful-ness are given pills which increase the production of enzymes controlling production of the chemicals known to control learning and memory. Everyone is able to use his full mental potential.

Despite the fact that the year 2008 is only 40 years away—as far ahead as 1928 is in the past—it will be a world as strange to us as our time (1968) would be to the pilgrims. •
Last edited by Mr Bean on 2008-03-26 07:53pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Post by Zablorg »

They got a couple of fundementals right, but it sort of irritates me that people in the past had to be so damn optimistic?

And plastic roads? Am I right in assuming that that would take far more than 40 years to replace all current roads with plastic ones, even if the tech was there?
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Post by K. A. Pital »

Bad. The eco-paradise and the super-rational urbanism age never came.
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Post by Surlethe »

They underestimated antipathy to government control. The scenario is remotely plausible, if people are willing to give power to the government to nationalize traffic, build huge domes, centralize the transportation network, etc. However, that's socialism, so it never happened.
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Post by Darth Tanner »

However, that's socialism, so it never happened.
Even in socialist countries? The problem is that the tech simply isnt there to achieve most of those things. Computer controlled cars would result in hundreds of thousands of death on the first day of operation.

I'm impressed how close they were with predicitng mobile phone development though.
Dwellings for the most part are assembled from prefabricated modules
:lol: I'd love to see them get through most countries planning legislation.
The housewife simply determines in advance her menus for the week
They didnt predict some things changing then.
but it sort of irritates me that people in the past had to be so damn optimistic?
They expected paradise. We expect mass famine and fuel crisis.
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Post by The Grim Squeaker »

Darth Tanner wrote:
but it sort of irritates me that people in the past had to be so damn optimistic?
They expected paradise. We expect mass famine and fuel crisis.
You do, and many members on this forum do. The avergae person does not, the average american does not, and while this is a guess, I'd presume that most humans imagine that things will improve in the future. (Although that may be wrong, if you think about certain 3d world nations where extreme poverty exists).
Ask a Chinese, an Indian, a westerner, someone working in the rapidly advancing sciences (biology, genetics, computers, nanomachines, solar) and they'll be optimistic. And no, Valdemar doesn't count :wink: .
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Post by Alferd Packer »

I thought it was interesting that they still thought you'd have to buy CPU time on a municipal computer. Though for the most part, they got the computer related stuff right.
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Post by Rye »

Zablorg wrote:They got a couple of fundementals right, but it sort of irritates me that people in the past had to be so damn optimistic?
You have to remember that in the 60s, a lot of relatively new science was really coming into its own. The utopian dreams were common to that era (new technology, new architecture post ww2, etc) and society was undergoing some pretty odd progression in regards to civil rights and consumerism. The politics of fear became more popular since then, in media as well as political discourse, so naturally our predictions nowadays would probably be something more cynical and focusing on the unpleasant things.
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Re: What life will be like in 40 years(Cic-1984)

Post by Broomstick »

Mr Bean wrote:I come in peace
So this mag gets the idea to forcast 40 years into the future in 1984, how well did they do?
>cough<

You mean circa 1968, don't you?

HIT:

Flat screen "TV's" - (inclusive of what we call video displays)
Computers in cars
"TV phones" - video phones/cellphones
"Attache case" computers - laptops
Internet transmission of information
Moving sidewalks and "electric trams" - limited, but found in major airports these days.
Transportation hubs next to major cities (we call them "airports") with connections to downtown areas - but only in the largest urban areas.
"Electrostatic precipitators" - home air filtration systems.
"climatizers" - heating/cooling/humidifying/dehumidying systems are available, although most people don't have the full bundle.
Household robots - available (roomba, robot lawn mowers, automatic shower cleaners) but not in wide use and they don't do everything.
Modular buildings - not assembled on site, but "modular homes" are factory produced of interchangable parts and shipped to sites.
A computer in every household - well, OK not quite yet but the "home computer" is certainly common these days.
Computers for "travel reservations, relay telephone messages, keep track of birthdays and anniversaries, compute taxes and even figure the monthly bills for electricity, water, telephone and other utilities" BUT they missed on-line bill paying.
Direct deposit of paychecks
Rise in use of credit cards/debit cards for common payments.
TV/internet shopping
Computer/on-line learning (although not as universal as they predicted)
Wall-size flat screen TV's
Pay-per-view programming
Color TV as the default option (most TV's in 1968 were still black and white - I expect most on this board are too young to remember that)
Books on tape
Fish farming.


MISS:

250 mph "air cushion" car
National traffic control
Automobile autopilots
Plastic roads
Domed cities
350 million population - we have "only" 303 million
Civil SST, hypersonic, and rocket transportation
That whole "pre-packaged automated food delivery" system - yes we have pre-packaged meals but people haven't given up old fashioned cooking, and eating out is more common than in 1968,
Routine use of plastic disposable plates/cutlery - our microwave meals are like that but most folks still use old fashioned ceramic and metal.
Monitoring of household appliances and appearance of repairman before breakdowns
More leisure time.
4 hour work days (HA!)
3-D TV
Underwater vacation resorts
Hotels in orbit
Automation of farms - farming is much more high-tech these days, but not to extent envisioned here.
Processing seaweed and algae into meat facsimiles.
Elimination of heart disease
Artificial organs - and they missed organ transplants.
Diagnostic chairs like Star Trek medical beds.
"Intelligence pills"


There was also a failure to anticipate computer aided design and the role of computer in entertainment and on-line gaming. No mention of weather sites or satellite navigation. A lot of people here probably don't realize this, but in 1968 digital clocks were almost unheard of, digital watches nonexistant, and pocket calculators likewise. Microwave ovens didn't exist in homes yet - there just were no consumer models being made yet.

But really, they didn't do too bad for 1968 - after all, in 1968 we hadn't even gotten to moon yet.
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Post by Broomstick »

Alferd Packer wrote:I thought it was interesting that they still thought you'd have to buy CPU time on a municipal computer.
That's because in 1968 computers filled entire rooms, if not buildings. The average cheap-ass solar-powered calculator these days has more computing power than the so-called computer on the Apollo moon missions. There were a very few "kit computers" out there for hobbyist nerds, but no one took them seriously. The Apple computer and personal computer revolution was still nearly 10 years in the future when the article was written.

The idea of a computer fitting on someone's desk was just not conceivable even to most computer scientists back then.
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Post by Coyote »

The thing with the predictions is that they always seem to fall back on old canards that have been predicted by futurists for years-- flying cars, domed cities. It's like there's some quota or something-- no matter how realistic or well thought the future scenario, there has to at least by flying or "air" cars. :lol:

At least this one stopped at air cushion cars. Better than most, I guess.
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Post by Broomstick »

There's a particular irony from my viewpoint about "flying cars" because there's no reason the average human being couldn't learn to fly a small airplane - which we've had for over a century now. Really, a flying car isn't going to be any more useful than one of those, and in fact would probably combine the worst features of both.
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Now I did a job. I got nothing but trouble since I did it, not to mention more than a few unkind words as regard to my character so let me make this abundantly clear. I do the job. And then I get paid.- Malcolm Reynolds, Captain of Serenity, which sums up my feelings regarding the lawsuit discussed here.

If a free society cannot help the many who are poor, it cannot save the few who are rich. - John F. Kennedy

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Post by Coyote »

Broomstick wrote:...Really, a flying car isn't going to be any more useful than one of those, and in fact would probably combine the worst features of both.
Yeah, I barely trust people to drive in 2 dimensions; imagine some of these retards trying to navigate in 3 dimensions as they talk on cellphones; put on makeup, a tie, or comb their hair; eat; argue with kids in backseat, etc...
Something about Libertarianism always bothered me. Then one day, I realized what it was:
Libertarian philosophy can be boiled down to the phrase, "Work Will Make You Free."


In Libertarianism, there is no Government, so the Bosses are free to exploit the Workers.
In Communism, there is no Government, so the Workers are free to exploit the Bosses.
So in Libertarianism, man exploits man, but in Communism, its the other way around!

If all you want to do is have some harmless, mindless fun, go H3RE INST3ADZ0RZ!!
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Post by DPDarkPrimus »

Though obviously they did not predict the emergence of the Internet, the tv-telephone shopping they describe is close enough.
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Post by Guardsman Bass »

Coyote wrote:
Broomstick wrote:...Really, a flying car isn't going to be any more useful than one of those, and in fact would probably combine the worst features of both.
Yeah, I barely trust people to drive in 2 dimensions; imagine some of these retards trying to navigate in 3 dimensions as they talk on cellphones; put on makeup, a tie, or comb their hair; eat; argue with kids in backseat, etc...
Not to mention the greatly increased lethality of accidents, since now you have to worry about the flying car crashing to the ground killing all the occupants.
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Post by EmperorChrostas the Cruel »

...and increased need for repairs.

You don't just "pull over, put on your hazzardss and wait for AAA to come" when your flying machine has a failure of a system.
Aircraft is much more expencive that ground craft for a reason. The failure in more harsh.
Hmmmmmm.

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Post by Alferd Packer »

I wonder if any of these so-called "In the Year 2000" prediction articles/news pieces predicted anything close to the internet. Or is it just too far out there to have been considered realistic?
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Post by Nephtys »

I don't know about you guys, but I sure as hell am planning on driving my GEV to the Semi-Ballistic for my trip to the Imperial Republic of Britain in 2014.

Incidentally, check out Tales of Future Past.
http://www.davidszondy.com/future/futurepast.htm

They've got a lot of stuff on what people back when thought stuff would be like now. Like a youtube video of circa 1968 people trying to shop online or microwave dinners. Or how in 1916, future wars would involve Giant Flying Submarine Dreadnaughts that would land on enemy towns and disgorge giant ferris-wheels with gun lanterns hanging off the sides to overrun enemy trenches armed with robot turrets.
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Re: What life will be like in 40 years(Cic-1984)

Post by Xisiqomelir »

Reading that puts me on life tilt. Especially when I consider that we achieved total success in the wasteful consumer bullshit categories (microwave dinners, tv shopping, credit card avalanches).
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Post by Broomstick »

Guardsman Bass wrote:
Coyote wrote:
Broomstick wrote:...Really, a flying car isn't going to be any more useful than one of those, and in fact would probably combine the worst features of both.
Yeah, I barely trust people to drive in 2 dimensions; imagine some of these retards trying to navigate in 3 dimensions as they talk on cellphones; put on makeup, a tie, or comb their hair; eat; argue with kids in backseat, etc...
Not to mention the greatly increased lethality of accidents, since now you have to worry about the flying car crashing to the ground killing all the occupants.
No that I'm going to disagree on just a bit - most people's familiarity with airplane accidents involve big jets in the mainstream media. While I wouldn't want to crash a small airplane, the small size and speed means the impact and energy involved is considerably less than in a 747 crash. As a result, it is quite possible to walk away form or recover from the crash of a small airplane, and I know a half dozen people who have done so.

On top of that, recent years have seen the advent of airbag systems and whole-airplane parachutes that have, unquestionably, saved some lives. It's not as dangerous as it used to be.
EmperorChrostas the Cruel wrote: You don't just "pull over, put on your hazzardss and wait for AAA to come" when your flying machine has a failure of a system.
Now, you have to keep flying the damn thing no matter what's busted. Which is very annoying. Which means pilot has to know what the fuck he or she is doing, unlike the average car driver. That has always been the biggest obstacle to people learning to fly aircraft - you actually have to LEARN shit, you can't just snooze through training.
Xisiqomelir wrote:Reading that puts me on life tilt. Especially when I consider that we achieved total success in the wasteful consumer bullshit categories (microwave dinners, tv shopping, credit card avalanches).
Now, wait a minute - microwaves are typically more efficient than conventional ovens. It's the pre-packaged stuff that's the problem - and even then there are times when the convenience is worth it. It's when people buy more expensive than necessary dinners and eat them exclusively that there's a problem.

Likewise, TV and internet shopping can be a good thing - avoiding disease-spreading crowds, not using gasoline to drive to the mall... it's when someone sits around all day buying useless crap that it's a problem

So, really, the problem is in how we apply the inventions, not the inventions themselves.
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Now I did a job. I got nothing but trouble since I did it, not to mention more than a few unkind words as regard to my character so let me make this abundantly clear. I do the job. And then I get paid.- Malcolm Reynolds, Captain of Serenity, which sums up my feelings regarding the lawsuit discussed here.

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Mr Bean
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Re: What life will be like in 40 years(Cic-1984)

Post by Mr Bean »

Broomstick wrote: >cough<

You mean circa 1968, don't you?
Facepalm
To be fair I posted this as I was leaving for work so I did not have time to double check it.
To also be fair, that's no excuse, I can only hope my family does not disown me due to this shameful incident.

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Winston Blake
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Post by Winston Blake »

Alferd Packer wrote:I wonder if any of these so-called "In the Year 2000" prediction articles/news pieces predicted anything close to the internet. Or is it just too far out there to have been considered realistic?
There's a common thread in these fascinating predictions from the past - inflexibility. It's always a dedicated TV shopping network, or special TV phone, or dedicated picture transmission machines. The basic ideas are there, but the idea of a grand overarching telecommunications scheme wasn't. Somebody, somewhere must have wondered how these various machines and networks might be combined. Yet even foreseeing the technology itself, I doubt they could foresee its uses.

About inflexibility, computers are usually predicted to have a wide range of functions, but it's just that, a collection of functions. A balance checkbook machine, a date reminder machine, a tax computing machine - they're just a collection of calculators and electronic office staff. Computers are seen as mere robo-slave adaptations of a secretary or maid or tax service.
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Post by Mr. Coffee »

Ya know, guys like this 20 years ago said I'd have a flying car and a robot housekeeper by now.
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Darth Raptor
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Post by Darth Raptor »

While they would be wildly impractical, I think our lack of flying cars has more to do with gravity than anything.
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Broomstick
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Post by Broomstick »

Winston Blake wrote:
Alferd Packer wrote:I wonder if any of these so-called "In the Year 2000" prediction articles/news pieces predicted anything close to the internet. Or is it just too far out there to have been considered realistic?
There's a common thread in these fascinating predictions from the past - inflexibility. It's always a dedicated TV shopping network, or special TV phone, or dedicated picture transmission machines. The basic ideas are there, but the idea of a grand overarching telecommunications scheme wasn't. Somebody, somewhere must have wondered how these various machines and networks might be combined. Yet even foreseeing the technology itself, I doubt they could foresee its uses.

About inflexibility, computers are usually predicted to have a wide range of functions, but it's just that, a collection of functions. A balance checkbook machine, a date reminder machine, a tax computing machine - they're just a collection of calculators and electronic office staff. Computers are seen as mere robo-slave adaptations of a secretary or maid or tax service.
Right.

And there's a reason for that.

Before computers as we know them became common, each tool had one and only one use. Computers are the tools that can be many tools, and that makes them unique.

Those of you who have no memory of the world before the computer became commonplace don't understand the huge change that occurred. The old predictions have the "balance checkbook machine" and the "date reminder machine" because, to the average person, it was not conceivable that one machine could do both. Hell, I remember when it was an amazing novelty to have a watch that gave you both the time AND the date! (And that was for a mechanical, analog watch that did that, and was usually much more expensive than a time-only watch)
A life is like a garden. Perfect moments can be had, but not preserved, except in memory. Leonard Nimoy.

Now I did a job. I got nothing but trouble since I did it, not to mention more than a few unkind words as regard to my character so let me make this abundantly clear. I do the job. And then I get paid.- Malcolm Reynolds, Captain of Serenity, which sums up my feelings regarding the lawsuit discussed here.

If a free society cannot help the many who are poor, it cannot save the few who are rich. - John F. Kennedy

Sam Vimes Theory of Economic Injustice
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