North Korea warns of pre-emptive nuclear strike

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North Korea warns of pre-emptive nuclear strike

Post by cosmicalstorm »

Do they even have nuclear weapons?

I've heard a lot of people claim that the test up in the mountains the other year was a dud.
An escalating war of words across the world’s last Cold War, nuclear-armed border spiraled dramatically yesterday when North Korea threatened to wreak total destruction on its neighbour to the south.

“Our military will not sit idle until warmongers launch a pre-emptive strike,” the official news agency in Pyongyang reported a senior military commander as saing, “everything will be in ashes, not just a sea of fire, if our advanced pre-emptive strike once begins.”

The threat was among the most direct and bellicose statements from Pyongyang since North Korea test-fired an atomic device in late 2006. International efforts since then to persuade the country’s enigmatic dictator, Kim Jong il, to abandon his weapons programme have repeatedly stalled.

The threat also marked a fourth day of rapidly deteriorating relations on the Korean peninsula, which remains technically still at war despite more than 50 years of often uncomfortable armistice.

The two countries – the prosperous, modern South and the unpredictable Stalinist Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) – continue to glare at one another across the world’s most heavily armed border.

A note sent by a North Korean military delegation to its South Korean counterpart on Saturday, said that “these outbursts are the gravest challenge ever in the history of the inter-Korean relations and a reckless provocation little short of a war declaration against the DPRK.”

Sunday’s warning followed remarks in Seoul earlier in the weekend in which the head of South Korea’s military vowed to conduct a pre-emptive strike on the suspected North Korean nuclear weapons site if Pyongyang tried to attack with atomic weapons.

The office of the chairman of the South’s joint chiefs of staff later explained that it was a statement of general principles, rather than a hint that the South was planning any unprovoked attack on the North. Pyongyang said that it would suspend all cross-border dialogue unless the remarks were withdrawn and an apology issued.

Although the communist regime of Kim Jong Il has regularly used this form of extreme language in the past, long-term North Korea experts said that its renewed appearance of the past few days should be treated with some caution.

The row, which has already seen 11 South Korean officials expelled from a joint economic “friendship” zone by the North, is thought to be a test by Pyongyang of the mettle of the new president in Seoul.

On Friday the DPRK test-fired a salvo of short-range missiles, reprising an act that has traditionally provoked outrage in Seoul and placed South Korean leaderships under immense domestic strain.

Lee Myung Bak was elected to the South Korean presidency in December last year on promises of a stronger economy. But he made little secret that his view towards North Korea and Kim Jong il would be far less conciliatory than his predecessor’s.

His response to the current escalation of tensions will be closely scrutinised on both sides of the demilitarized zone that splits the peninsula.

In addition to the deeper conflict over Pyongyang’s atomic weapons programme, the most recent row has ignited an argument over a line in the Yellow Sea that has never been recognised by North Korea: officials in Pyongyang said on Friday that “armed conflict may break out at any moment” over the boundary.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/w ... 648882.ece
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Re: North Korea warns of pre-emptive nuclear strike

Post by CJvR »

cosmicalstorm wrote:Do they even have nuclear weapons?

I've heard a lot of people claim that the test up in the mountains the other year was a dud.
Perhaps, even a misfiring nuke isn't really healty to be around. They hardly need it though, Seoul is within range of hundreds, perhaps thousands of artillery pieces and if there is anything basketcase states tend to be good at it is massproducing cheap simple weapons.

I doubt Little Kim, the world's only fat NorK, is suicidal enough to fire one off outside his mega-Gulag. If there is one thing that would get the PRC to dump support for him in a hurry that would be it.
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Post by SirNitram »

North Korea jumps up and down, demands world pay attention to it. It must be Monday.
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Post by Admiral Valdemar »

SirNitram wrote:North Korea jumps up and down, demands world pay attention to it. It must be Monday.
I concur. The only blowhard more vocal than The Great Leader is Chavez. Pay the international trolls no heed. I dislike threats, especially toothless ones.
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Post by Shroom Man 777 »

I wonder what the internal politics of North Korea is like. If the country is even worse off than we think, if the Great Leader (not Skimmer) is that detached with reality and his own nation. Hell, maybe he doesn't even know his men are making these grandiose statements and threats - he's off in his own world being all lonely and sadly alone with his piano. Perhaps they're gonna make more and more threats and saber-rattlings as their country gets worse and worse and worse and in a few years, when the North Korean government dissolves - foreigners are gonna come in and see incomprehensible sights that no one expected. Like how no one was expecting the Holocaust in WW2.

The media and all these alarmists are expecting some sort of violent explosion from North Korea. But what's happening is just an entire country being eaten from inside out by cancer.
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Post by K. A. Pital »

Shroom Man 777 wrote:I wonder what the internal politics of North Korea is like.
Read Lankov, "The natural death of Korean stalinism".
Shroom Man 777 wrote:...the Great Leader (not Skimmer) is that detached with reality and his own nation
He may be, but not the bureaucracy. It pretty much understands that it maintains the regime for their own safety - the safety of NORK bureaucrats.

It's like riding a train on fire, they know it will wreck with a high probability, but can't leave.

This is why they act like they do.
Shroom Man 777 wrote:...foreigners are gonna come in and see incomprehensible sights that no one expected.
Google Earth can show you every prison or military complex in DPRK, as far as I know.
Shroom Man 777 wrote:Hell, maybe he doesn't even know his men are making these grandiose statements and threats
He does and so do bureaucrats. They need convincing counteraction from the West to maintain the "imperialist enemies look out to crush us" ruse.
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Post by Guardsman Bass »

He makes these threats pretty much any time the US and South Korea conduct joint military exercises. It's probably hot air.
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Re: North Korea warns of pre-emptive nuclear strike

Post by Sea Skimmer »

cosmicalstorm wrote:Do they even have nuclear weapons?

I've heard a lot of people claim that the test up in the mountains the other year was a dud.
It wasn’t a dud, the device fizzled and yielded less then 1kt but this still means that a nuclear chain reaction occurred. By now we must assume, for lack of contrary evidence, that North Korea has corrected the flaw in its design and may have completely alternative designs. Any properly functioning nuclear weapon will produce at least 15-20kt yield, it takes a lot of extra design work to make them deliberately yield less then that. Even this relatively small yield could still kill 300,000 people if not a more given optimal air bursting over a major city.

It is highly unlikely that North Korean have miniaturized a device to a point that it would fit in a ballistic missile or decently compact cruise missile. However even the crudest nuke could be delivered by tactical aircraft, inside a submarine (they have hoards of small 250-350 ton subs of several classes for delivering special forces and mine laying, no reason why one can’t be used to drop a nuclear mine, something the British considered with X-craft) or via (this is admittedly unlikely) a very large cruise missile. In theory the North Koreans could also simply position nuclear devices inside the numerous tunnels they’ve dug under the DMZ, but this is really unlikely for a whole bunch of reasons.
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Post by KlavoHunter »

Shroom Man 777 wrote:if the Great Leader (not Skimmer)
Minor point of order, but the "Great Leader", KJI's father, is actually dead and rules as Head of State of the DPRK.

Kim Jong-il is referred to as the DEAR Leader.
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Re: North Korea warns of pre-emptive nuclear strike

Post by Sidewinder »

CJvR wrote:If there is one thing that would get the PRC to dump support for him in a hurry that would be it.
I agree with this assessment, but I wonder: Why the hell doesn't the Chinese government tell Kim Jong-il "Shut the fuck up, stop rocking the boat with the South and the US, or we're stopping the flow of aid to your country."
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Re: North Korea warns of pre-emptive nuclear strike

Post by brianeyci »

Sidewinder wrote:
CJvR wrote:If there is one thing that would get the PRC to dump support for him in a hurry that would be it.
I agree with this assessment, but I wonder: Why the hell doesn't the Chinese government tell Kim Jong-il "Shut the fuck up, stop rocking the boat with the South and the US, or we're stopping the flow of aid to your country."
It could be because the Chinese are scared shitless. Like parents who are afraid of a kid going into a temper tantrum, only this kid can blow up the house. NK is fucking stealing the trains going from China to NK. The Chinese can wipe NK off the face of the earth, but not before NK kills hundreds of thousands of SK.

They're just crossing their fingers and hoping it's a "phase" like the rest of the world... a phase that will end once Kim is dead.

Alternatively, a much more frightening option: once Kim is gone, the whole thing comes crashing down and he's the only one keeping his delusional generals on a leash.
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Re: North Korea warns of pre-emptive nuclear strike

Post by Fingolfin_Noldor »

brianeyci wrote: It could be because the Chinese are scared shitless. Like parents who are afraid of a kid going into a temper tantrum, only this kid can blow up the house. NK is fucking stealing the trains going from China to NK. The Chinese can wipe NK off the face of the earth, but not before NK kills hundreds of thousands of SK.

They're just crossing their fingers and hoping it's a "phase" like the rest of the world... a phase that will end once Kim is dead.

Alternatively, a much more frightening option: once Kim is gone, the whole thing comes crashing down and he's the only one keeping his delusional generals on a leash.
Eh, I think the real reason is that the Chinese don't fancy a US friendly nation on their bothers. Aside from the fact that they don't want refugees streaming across the border, the Chinese aren't blind when they see that Japan and S.Korea are pretty close US allies and that the US is as usual playing that game of containment.
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Post by Fingolfin_Noldor »

EDIT: I meant to say borders. Damn it.
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Post by brianeyci »

I was answering Sidewinder: he was asking, why doesn't China just tell NK to shut up.

I don't see how if China did tell NK to shut up, that NK would suddenly become a US friendly nation. More chance of pigs flying.
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Post by Fingolfin_Noldor »

brianeyci wrote:I was answering Sidewinder: he was asking, why doesn't China just tell NK to shut up.

I don't see how if China did tell NK to shut up, that NK would suddenly become a US friendly nation. More chance of pigs flying.
Er yes, but you are suggesting things that is simply incorrect. They are not waiting for Kim to die, or anything. They would rather N. Korea not collapse or anything. Also, Kim is as delusional as his generals if not more and he's probably grooming a successor like his father before him.

In any case, China wouldn't mind keeping everyone on the edge to remind them of the need of China to keep things in order.
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Post by K. A. Pital »

NK bureaucracy is not delusional. Kim may be, but hardly in a "we are teh awesome" way. Kim knows well enough that he commands little more than a failed state, IMHO. His bureaucrats know that full well, as far as I could gather from Lankov.
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Post by Fingolfin_Noldor »

Stas Bush wrote:NK bureaucracy is not delusional. Kim may be, but hardly in a "we are teh awesome" way. Kim knows well enough that he commands little more than a failed state, IMHO. His bureaucrats know that full well, as far as I could gather from Lankov.
Well, Kim might be delusional in that he's somewhat detached from reality, but he has displayed incredible adroitness when it comes to defending his turf.
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Post by Shroom Man 777 »

I wonder why Kim hasn't spawned an heir from his loins' most glorious outpourings.
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Post by loomer »

He likes to ride the bomb too much.
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Post by Lusankya »

I thought he had an heir, except the heir's more interested in sneaking into Tokyo Disney than in growing up and ruling a 3rd world shithole.
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Post by Shroom Man 777 »

Lusankya wrote:I thought he had an heir, except the heir's more interested in sneaking into Tokyo Disney than in growing up and ruling a 3rd world shithole.
Hah! Sounds like me and my dad :lol:
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Post by Jadeite »

Shroom Man 777 wrote:I wonder why Kim hasn't spawned an heir from his loins' most glorious outpourings.
You mean like his three sons and one daughter?
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Post by Broomstick »

Guardsman Bass wrote:He makes these threats pretty much any time the US and South Korea conduct joint military exercises. It's probably hot air.
The problem with dismissing the rantings of DPRK as "hot air' is that one day it might not be.
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Post by Fingolfin_Noldor »

Lusankya wrote:I thought he had an heir, except the heir's more interested in sneaking into Tokyo Disney than in growing up and ruling a 3rd world shithole.
He has about two sons if I recall right.
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Post by Shroom Man 777 »

I looked it up, he has three sons. The eldest isn't in line to the "throne" since he likes to breakdance and wants to go to Disneyland, so they say he's living in Macau :lol:
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