AU Labor wants F-22 export ban lifted

[Ma Deuce]

http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,23 ... 21,00.html

Labor wants US to sell secret F-22 fighter

By Mark Dodd
March 25, 2008 02:07am

DEFENCE Minister Joel Fitzgibbon will step up pressure on the US to overturn its ban on the sale of the F-22 Raptor fighter, amid growing federal government concern about delays and cost increases affecting the Joint Strike Fighter program.

Foreign sales of the F-22, described by many aviation experts as the world's best air superiority fighter, are banned by Congress, but there are signs that Washington might make a special exemption for Australia.

Mr Fitzgibbon said yesterday he intended to push US Defence Secretary Robert Gates to allow the sale of the world's most advanced operational stealth fighter to Australia at next month's NATO conference in Bucharest.

"Ongoing question marks over the delivery schedule of the JSF reinforces the need we have to look at other '5th Generation' aircraft such as the F-22 Raptor," he said.

"During my bilateral meetings with Secretary Gates at the upcoming NATO meeting in Bucharest, I will again be discussing this issue with him."

More delays and increased costs to the so-far unproven US-designed Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning are driving renewed interest in the previous off-limits F-22.

Reliable government sources told The Australian yesterday the RAAF might be able to buy the F-22 "off the shelf" under a congressional waiver, or a modified version stripped of some secretive technology.

Australia is part of an international coalition with purchase options on the multi-role JSF and has flagged an initial order of 100 of the jets, worth a minimum $16 billion.

But many defence strategists question the wisdom of the deal, given the retirement of the ageing F-111 fleet in 2010.

To bridge the capability gap, the Howard government ordered 24 F/A 18F Super Hornet fighters, at a cost of $6.5bn, to serve as frontline aircraft until the arrival of the JSFs in 2018.

Despite misgivings about the procurement process, Mr Fitzgibbon last week confirmed the Rudd Government would go ahead with the controversial purchase.

Well we've known for a while that the Australian Labor party has been arguing for an F-22 purchase, so it's no surprise that now they're in power they'd try to make it happen, even though it's probably a less than ideal choice for Australia's needs. On the other hand, I'm sure the USAF wouldn't mind the plane being sold to trusted allies to help spread around the cost. If the Australians succeed in obtaining an exemption to the ban, I'm almost certain that Japan will make another bid to acquire the F-22.

[HemlockGrey]

I'm almost certain that Japan will make another bid to acquire the F-22.

The problem with selling the F-22 to the Japanese is that funky Japanese defense acquisition regulations require that military equipment they purchase is disassembled and then reassembled in a Japanese factory, presumably to keep parts of the Japanese manufacturing sector humming. Since that would require we supply them with detailed plans to the aircraft, it obviously makes a few people apphrehensive.

[Ritterin Sophia]

I'm almost certain that Japan will make another bid to acquire the F-22.

The problem with selling the F-22 to the Japanese is that funky Japanese defense acquisition regulations require that military equipment they purchase is disassembled and then reassembled in a Japanese factory, presumably to keep parts of the Japanese manufacturing sector humming. Since that would require we supply them with detailed plans to the aircraft, it obviously makes a few people apphrehensive.

Especially so after that one company provided the specs for the milling machines to produce screws for quieter subs.

[Singular Intellect]

Wouldn't the sale of the F-22 even to really good allies increase the chances of all the advanced technology falling into enemy hands at some point?

[TithonusSyndrome]

Wouldn't the sale of the F-22 even to really good allies increase the chances of all the advanced technology falling into enemy hands at some point?

Not if it's sold to trusty Israel!

[montypython]

Still, the F-22 is extremely expensive, don't know how the Australian budget people will manage the financial gyrations to get them...

[Sam Or I]

Wouldn't the sale of the F-22 even to really good allies increase the chances of all the advanced technology falling into enemy hands at some point?

Very true, but it would also help keep the F-22 production line open, which is being threatened to be close down. The ability to make extra jets if need, in my opinion out weighs the risk of somebody stealing the technology.

[tim31]

I can't see it happening myself. There are just too many other defense projects currently miaowing for funding to see this through, unless they turf the Super Hornet contract(which they can't).

[The Duchess of Zeon]

Still, the F-22 is extremely expensive, don't know how the Australian budget people will manage the financial gyrations to get them...

The cost would be driven down enormously if the Australian government ordered a hundred of them, I can't emphasize that enough--so much of the cost is R&D that it isn't funny, if we were doing a full order the unit cost would be much lower.

[Sea Skimmer]

Especially so after that one company provided the specs for the milling machines to produce screws for quieter subs.

They sold eight complete industrial milling machines actually, but the importance of those machines was overstated, at most they made it easier for the Soviets to produce the quieter props they had already designed. Around the same time a Norwegian company illegally sold the Soviet over 200 high end computers, which was a much more serious loss of technology.

[tim31]

Still, the F-22 is extremely expensive, don't know how the Australian budget people will manage the financial gyrations to get them...

The cost would be driven down enormously if the Australian government ordered a hundred of them, I can't emphasize that enough--so much of the cost is R&D that it isn't funny, if we were doing a full order the unit cost would be much lower.

One hundred?? They're only buying 24 Super Hornets, even if they are supposed to just be an 'interim' replacement for the F-111! How much do you think a 100 unit purchase by the RAAF would shave off the unit price?

[weemadando]

I think that a 100 unit order would only be reasonable if there was a really viable "Strike" package available for conversion on F-22 airframes.

After all, that's what we'll be lacking once the F-111s go.

[Sea Skimmer]

The estimated flyaway cost for major follow on production of F-22 aircraft beyond the 183 already approved is estimated to be about 116 million; currently they cost about 140 million flyaway. The price of the F-22 has been driven up not only by low production but also by the way the USAF has had to place its production orders, funding aircraft in single year allotments. If a foreign government bought F-22 it would place a multi year contract (something the USAF has wanted to do but can’t for various reasons) which would make things cheaper since all the parts can be ordered at once, to be built at optimal production rates. However to actually fly and operate F-22s you’d easily need to buy another 50+ million dollars worth of parts, support equipment, weapons launchers and weapons per plane. Thats the reason why 100 x F-35s could cost 12-16 billion even though the flyaway cost of an F-35 is a fair bit lower then that of an F-22.

The F-35s ever increasing cost is really starting to make it look like a dubious investment in comparison to the F-22, except for one enormous issue, the F-35 will have the latest and newest electronics, while the F-22 already needs just about everything replaced to be fully compatible and easily upgradeable over the next 25 years. Work is already going ahead to design replacements for most F-22 avionics systems, but actually finishing that development work and then rebuilding every F-22 to carry them is no small cost. Japan would probably just spend a bunch of extra money to put its own electronics into a JF-22 if the US would allow it, but this isn’t a realistic option for Australia.

I think that a 100 unit order would only be reasonable if there was a really viable "Strike" package available for conversion on F-22 airframes.

After all, that's what we'll be lacking once the F-111s go.

It really sucks that the F-22 can’t accept conformal fuel tanks, but designing a setup of stealthy drop tanks and some kind of stealthy bomb pylon wouldn’t be the hardest thing to do. You’d have a performance penalty and a stealth penalty, but neither should matter too much for a long range standoff attack aircraft. Even a stock JDAM can fly more then 20 miles when released from a supersonic F-22, and the new JDAMs wing kits will let one sail go much further while still costing only about 40 grand per bomb. I get the impression that the F-111s only expect to carrier a pair of standoff missiles these days anyway.

[weemadando]

I think that dumping the JSF order for a pure F-22 fleet may be an interesting option and within Australia's price range. After all, we've been lied to time and time again about the delivery schedule, price and capabilities of the JSF so the gov't shouldn't have a problem axeing the contract.

[Sidewinder]

Well we've known for a while that the Australian Labor party has been arguing for an F-22 purchase, so it's no surprise that now they're in power they'd try to make it happen, even though it's probably a less than ideal choice for Australia's needs.

Considering the costs of acquisition, maintenance, and upgrades, it may make more sense for the RAAF to get the plane that replaced the F-111 in USAF service, i.e., the F-15E.

Anyways, I don't think Australia has a good chance to get the ban lifted, as the nation's location isn't THAT strategic (compared to Japan or Israel), it doesn't have THAT vocal a lobby (compared to Israel), and its economy isn't big enough to buy a significant number of Raptors and drive down costs of aquisition for the USAF, unless I missed a HUGE gold mine or MASSIVE oil fields in or near Australia.

On the other hand, I'm sure the USAF wouldn't mind the plane being sold to trusted allies to help spread around the cost. If the Australians succeed in obtaining an exemption to the ban, I'm almost certain that Japan will make another bid to acquire the F-22.

Considering the Japanese have sold sensitive US technology to the USSR for a quick buck (see here: "In 1987, Toshiba Machine, the subsidiary of Toshiba, was accused of illegally selling CNC milling machines used to produce very quiet submarine propellers to the Soviet Union in violation of the CoCom agreement, an international embargo on Western exports to East Bloc countries"), I doubt the US Congress is willing to lift the ban for them. If anything, the Israelis will likely get the F-22 first IF Congress lifts the ban.

[Shroom Man 777]

Australia has uranium

The F-35s ever increasing cost is really starting to make it look like a dubious investment in comparison to the F-22, except for one enormous issue, the F-35 will have the latest and newest electronics, while the F-22 already needs just about everything replaced to be fully compatible and easily upgradeable over the next 25 years.

What? I know the F-22 started its development in the 80s and 90s, but the notion of a plane that's just entered service becoming obsolete right as it hits the tarmac... Do other nations have this problem with their 4.5 generation planes as well?

If the Aussies buy F-22s, could they get ones that have up-to-date electronics?

[phongn]

What? I know the F-22 started its development in the 80s and 90s, but the notion of a plane that's just entered service becoming obsolete right as it hits the tarmac... Do other nations have this problem with their 4.5 generation planes as well?

Does that really surprise you? Consider the advancements made in the computer industry in the last ten years.

If the Aussies buy F-22s, could they get ones that have up-to-date electronics?

Sure, if they were willing to help pay for it.

[Cecelia5578]

Australia has uranium

The F-35s ever increasing cost is really starting to make it look like a dubious investment in comparison to the F-22, except for one enormous issue, the F-35 will have the latest and newest electronics, while the F-22 already needs just about everything replaced to be fully compatible and easily upgradeable over the next 25 years.

What? I know the F-22 started its development in the 80s and 90s, but the notion of a plane that's just entered service becoming obsolete right as it hits the tarmac... Do other nations have this problem with their 4.5 generation planes as well?

If the Aussies buy F-22s, could they get ones that have up-to-date electronics?

I thought the F-22 was fifth generation.

Anyways, acquiring the F-22 would do away with Australia's hopes of having fixed wing carrier aviation pretty much ever again.

[Chris OFarrell]

Australia has uranium

The F-35s ever increasing cost is really starting to make it look like a dubious investment in comparison to the F-22, except for one enormous issue, the F-35 will have the latest and newest electronics, while the F-22 already needs just about everything replaced to be fully compatible and easily upgradeable over the next 25 years.

What? I know the F-22 started its development in the 80s and 90s, but the notion of a plane that's just entered service becoming obsolete right as it hits the tarmac... Do other nations have this problem with their 4.5 generation planes as well?

If the Aussies buy F-22s, could they get ones that have up-to-date electronics?

I thought the F-22 was fifth generation.

It is. It also first flew in the early 1990s, its 2008 now. Granted a lot of the electronics and avionics inside it were developed and improved over that time, but the technology is still not bleeding edge. The JSF is a lot more current in terms of the computers and avionics then the F-22.

Really, the F-22 was almost too advanced for its time, hence the long development cycle, at least in part. Its a good thing the USAF didn't for the F-23, THAT would probably still be in R&D hell.

[Sidewinder]

Its a good thing the USAF didn't for the F-23, THAT would probably still be in R&D hell.

Details, please, so I can learn just WHY the F-23 would've been more difficult to develop than the Raptor? (Links are preferred.) Was it due to its unusual configuration, i.e., with the diamond-shaped wing and no vertical tail, requiring a VERY complicated flight control system?

[Sea Skimmer]

What? I know the F-22 started its development in the 80s and 90s, but the notion of a plane that's just entered service becoming obsolete right as it hits the tarmac... Do other nations have this problem with their 4.5 generation planes as well?

The systems aren’t obsolete per say, but because of the limitations of computer power and the protracted development of the plane the F-22 ended up being stuck with systems with a very limited ‘plug and play’ capability to accept upgrades without changing hardware. The F-22 will get some new capabilities from adding new pieces of hardware (it has significant volume reserved for this), some from software and some from replacing existing hardware. The F-35’s computer architecture meanwhile is intended to support very wide ranging plug and play abilities from the onset.

This is a shift that affected a whole lot more systems then just F-22 vs. F-35, the Sea Wolf vs. Virginia class SSNs would be a very similar example.

Details, please, so I can learn just WHY the F-23 would've been more difficult to develop than the Raptor? (Links are preferred.) Was it due to its unusual configuration, i.e., with the diamond-shaped wing and no vertical tail, requiring a VERY complicated flight control system?

The F-22 is across the board a generally more conservative design, requiring less effort to develop and involving less risk. This was pretty much the whole reason why it was chosen over the YF-23, and thank god for that given all the trouble F-22 already was. I'd be pretty confident the F-23 would have never been able to reach service, it would have been canceled by the mid 1990s amid even greater delays and cost overruns at the height of Russian weakness.

[MKSheppard]

Another reason to cancel F-35 - it can't even supercruise; that ability was deleted.

[Sidewinder]

Another reason to cancel F-35 - it can't even supercruise; that ability was deleted.

I doubt the US can politically afford to cancel the F-35, considering how many VERY IMPORTANT allies have made investments in the project. Doing so would raise a shitstorm magnitudes greater than that from canceling the V-22, as those allies will likely demand refunds and decide, "We can't trust the Americans to deliver their products, so from now on we're buying (French, German, British, Russian, take your pick)," when making defense acquisitions.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

We need the F-35, unfortunately, but that shouldn't stop us from cranking out ~400 or so F-22s in short order. We can always push production of the F-35 back a bit more, and we should certainly let the Aussies and Japanese buy them, along with Britain if they ever wanted them (though I doubt it). I trust the Israelis less, and we don't have any other allies quite so close.

[Sea Skimmer]

F-35 isn’t going to be canceled, but it is entirely possible that the US will cutback orders even further. Most export partners will never cancel, they’ve already invested real money, and the Germans-French-Russians-British cannot offer anything that’s really comparable at the moment. Typhoon and especially Rafael suffer from outdated systems, and Russia has nothing but third generation aircraft to offer. Real good ones no question, and available with western electronics but that’s just not a very good long term investment.

People are going to keep wanting to buy US because the plane is going to be supported and improved by the USAF for the next 30-40 years, if not even longer. I don’t think it’s the last manned fighter but development is going to be real slow for a while in the west. That makes it a pretty wise investment, even if it costs a whole lot up front.

The British are buying 100 STVOL F-35 for replacing carrier and land based Harriers BTW