[Hypothetical scenario] The war continues after Empire's End

[Publius]

The State of the Galaxy

Dark Empire states that "within days of Thrawn's downfall, surviving members of the Emperor's Ruling Circle, in concert with six former Starfleet commanders," formed a coalition and attacked the New Republic-held Core Worlds, such that The Essential Chronology states that "within days" this coalition had "conquered several key systems" (among these the Dark Empire Sourcebook lists "the nearby Kaikielius and Metellos systems"), culminating in an assault on Coruscant itself in "Retreat from Coruscant." Coruscant was declared an open planet and the New Republic relocated its seat of government to Da Soocha V, in the Cyax system.

The Dark Empire Sourcebook mentions the Imperial siege of Caprioril, a New Republic sector capital, and Coruscant and the Core Worlds describes the Imperial capture of Esseles III, Ralltiir, Duro II, and Corulag. Shortly after the events of Dark Empire, the Dark Empire Sourcebook states that the Empire had "regained the Core Worlds, and still holds the Deep Galactic Core, as well as many high industry regions beyond the Core Worlds," and resupplied from "power bases in the Mid-Rim and the reclaimed Inner Rim, where industrial planets depend on wartime economies to survive"; the campaign resulted in "linking Imperial holdings all the way to Wild Space."

By the time of Dark Empire II, the Essential Chronology states that the Empire had "consolidated the forces remaining in the newly subjugated Core and Colonies regions"; it adds that by Empire's End the Empire had "regained key territories in the Inner and Outer Rim." By this time, the Empire was the dominant power in the Deep Core, the Core Worlds, the Colonies, and the Inner Rim, with significant holdings in the Mid-Rim, Outer Rim, and Wild Space. The New Republic retained some territories throughout, and may have retained dominance in the Expansion Region.

Military Readiness

The New Republic Defense Force had suffered a number of strategic defeats during the campaigns of Operation Shadow Hand, and several more during the preceding fighting in Thrawn's War. The Jedi Academy Sourcebook indicates that as a result of the Imperial attack on Coruscant, the New Republic had "lost over 60 percent of the Army's command staff," including "the upper hierarchy" and "many of [their] best COs, even those stationed on other worlds." Nevertheless, shortly after the events of Dark Empire, the New Republic Intelligence Operations Command noted in a Top Secret memorandum to the Provisional Council that "militarily, we [the New Republic] still hold the winning hand and mostly likely they [the Imperials] realize this." Despite their territorial inferiority, the more-or-less intact NRDF concentrated on attacking key infrastucture, with Empire's End saying that they directed "troopships and heavy armor" against "Imperial supply ports and shipyards," including dispatching "a hundred thousand ground troops and their assault armor to the galactic rim" on board a single landing ship to join other forces in investing "a great Imperial shipyard under siege."

In contrast to the New Republic's dispersal, the Empire had adopted a policy of large-scale fortification. The Dark Empire Sourcebook states that in the wake of the Imperial coalition campaign that seized the Core, the Imperials "began bulwarking them against further attack" once "control of these vital planets was secured," and goes on to describe the rise of the so-called Fortress Worlds, with "perimeter defense squadrons" forming "an overpowering border guard," in addition to moons that "bristled with turbolaser and ion cannon emplacements" and asteroid belts "mined with anti-matter particles and reflecting satellite arrays for surface based beams." In addition to the Fortress Worlds, the Empire's main base of operations is the Deep Core, which the Dark Empire Sourcebook states includes "secret military facilities, shipyards, and training grounds for [the Emperor's] exclusive troops," and the Galactic Emperor had long since begun to "bring supplies and troops into the Deep Core" in preparation for renewed offensives. The Deep Core preserve was protected by the Imperial Hyperspace Security Net, combining interdictor technology with "connected non-mass transceivers linked by a network of coordinated hyperspace S-threads," allowing the Net to detect unauthorized hyperspace travel and force the ships into real space. The Net monitored all navigable routes in the Deep Core, and many of the routes were "mined, patrolled, and otherwise blockaded to prevent further unauthorized exploration."

Specific Conditions

The Dark Empire Sourcebook describes the Shadow Hand Strategy as being the Galactic Emperor's detailed plan for fighting the war (Operation Shadow Hand is the actual implementation of the SHS), so comprehensive the sourcebook calls it "an autopilot system for the Empire itself"; Palpatine considered it "a summation of [his] battle philosophy" that was "more important than any admiral or weapons system" and "made use of all his resources -- not simply COMPNOR or the military, but everything," including "his Dark Side Adepts and Dark Jedi." Even his closest advisors had access only "to as much of the plan as necessary," and "it was in their best interests to follow it precisely."

For the purposes of this scenario, consider the following to be an accurate description of the specific details of the SHS:

The Shadow Hand Strategy is a comprehensive database of the Galactic Emperor's contingency plans, war plans, long-term political plans, and social-engineering programs. Assembled from years of hypothetical scenarios constructed by Palpatine as mental exercises and war gaming solutions, it contains decades' worth of planning and strategy. Variables are entered into the system, which then produces precisely detailed coherent instructions by assembling planning modules from the various existing entries into a single plan for dealing with all of the known variables. In this way, the Strategy can be adjusted to account for unforeseen circumstances while retaining continuity of planning, essentially providing an autopilot system for the Empire in Palpatine's absence.

In order to ensure the compatibility of the SHS's directions with his own plans, Palpatine stored the database within a supercomputer whose operating system is imprinted with his own personality. In essence, Shadow Hand thinks like Palpatine, and tailors its responses in the same way he himself would do. It makes all its decisions on the principal of what is best for Palpatine, and consequently acts with his full confidence. Its instructions are to be obeyed as though they were Palpatine's own, because in some sense they are.

The SHS does not have any ability to use the Force, but does have extensive records on its capabilities, and can assign Imperial Force-users tasks to complete in pursuit of its objectives (which is absolute victory for Palpatine first and foremost, and also for the Empire whenever that is compatible with the first objective).

Scenario

As seen in Empire's End, Palpatine of Naboo has met his final death on Onderon and Byss has been destroyed. However, Shadow Hand has survived intact, and adjusts its strategy to account for the loss of the Empire's headquarters and main stockpile of weapons of mass destruction. For the purposes of this scenario, the Imperial leadership continues to defer to Shadow Hand and carries out its instructions, forestalling any repeat of the post-Endor collapse and scramble for power (but may continue to harbor their own ambitions; as with Palpatine himself, their loyalty is conditional and not proof against betrayal). The war continues between the unified Empire, which controls the most territory in the galaxy, and the New Republic, which controls only disparate, widely-dispersed rump territories but retains the military upper hand.

Is it possible for the Shadow Hand-led Empire to win the war without the Galactic Emperor's WMDs? How long will the Imperial ruling class suffer to live under the dead hand of the Emperor? Can a computer with the knowledge and cunning of Palpatine maintain control of the Empire without his ability to use the Force? In the event that it wins the war and secures control of the galaxy, what can Shadow Hand do as a substitute for the apotheosis of Palpatine?

[Swindle1984]

Likely Palpatine had other contingency plans that, unfortunately for him, weren't implemented after the destruction of Byss (much like Thrawn's attempt at coming back from the dead were foiled). Shadow Hand would most probably have known about them and implemented them, bring Palpatine back for yet another go at subjugating the galaxy.

As for the Imperial people living under the hand of the dead emperor, there's no reason for them to know that the admiralty and moffs aren't running the show. If Shadow Hand is successful, the Imperials in command would just take the credit for themselves.

[Chris OFarrell]

When Byss went up, didn't it also take a very big chunk of the Imperials core strategic fleet forces with it? The big Star Dreadnaughts, Battleships, Battlecruisers and so on that gave their fleets a real edge against the NRDF fleets?

With the superweapons gone, a large chunk of the core fleet gone, there is much less ability for the Empire to dominate in an offensive force then they had. Also, the Galaxy gun had, as the ultimate instance of the Tarkin Doctrine, cowed a great many parts of the Galaxy into swearing loyalty to the Emperor IIRC, but with its threat gone, they would be free to openly break away once more.

Add to that that OSH to a large extent relied in the early days on surprise and speed to blitz the New Republic, combined with the sudden re-emergence of the Emperor. Now with such a huge loss to the Imperials and the NR well established in their opposing role, with secure fleet bases and operating points, the OSH strategy is going to be of only very limited use, assuming it even HAS a contingency for 'Emperor dead, core fleet and superweapons gone'.

[Sidewinder]

Considering the real Palpatine's difficulty dealing with unforseen things, e.g., Vader's betrayal and self-sacrifice to kill him, I doubt Shadow Hand will do any better, even if Imperial researchers solved the "can't think creatively" problem that was mentioned as a flaw of the Trade Federation and CIS' droid army.

[Swindle1984]

To be fair, Vader's betrayal and subsequent murder of the Emperor WAS kind of immediate. It's hard to come up with a contingency plan for betrayal when your most trusted lietenant suddenly turns and shoots you in the head, for instance.

[Deathstalker]

Unless the computer can overcome Luke's Force ability, Leia's political skill and Han's luck, it doesn't have a chance.

[Vehrec]

Considering the real Palpatine's difficulty dealing with unforseen things, e.g., Vader's betrayal and self-sacrifice to kill him, I doubt Shadow Hand will do any better, even if Imperial researchers solved the "can't think creatively" problem that was mentioned as a flaw of the Trade Federation and CIS' droid army.

Flaw or design feature? Absolute loyalty depends on the inability to question orders or spend time wondering about things outside the mission parameters. Otherwise, complicating factors may emerge and you have a droid rebellion on your hands.

[Illuminatus Primus]

When Byss went up, didn't it also take a very big chunk of the Imperials core strategic fleet forces with it? The big Star Dreadnaughts, Battleships, Battlecruisers and so on that gave their fleets a real edge against the NRDF fleets?

If your assertion is that since we see them above Byss in Dark Empire and they persist later than they are all there the entire time, then by extension they must not have participated in the blitzkrieg before Dark Empire which recaptured much of the Core and Colonies for the Empire, did not participate in the Dark Empire campaigns which further expanded their holdings, did not participate in the following campaigns that saw the Empire drive the New Republic to mere patches of the outlying galactic regions concentrated mostly in the Outer Rim and Expansion Region.

I think those ships were there perhaps as part of a Deep Core reserve, but mostly if they are deployed as naval units at Byss, it is because they are there to defend and secure Byss. Static forces don't do conquering. And most of the war takes place off-screen, so this simplistic plot/devicedeus ex machina explanation of Byss' starfleet, unsubstantiated by canon reference mind you, is to me, simplistic and unrealistic.

With the superweapons gone, a large chunk of the core fleet gone, there is much less ability for the Empire to dominate in an offensive force then they had. Also, the Galaxy gun had, as the ultimate instance of the Tarkin Doctrine, cowed a great many parts of the Galaxy into swearing loyalty to the Emperor IIRC, but with its threat gone, they would be free to openly break away once more.

Perhaps, but the coalition campaign secured the most important, highest population, most plentiful resources, and most industrialized region without resorting to any of these alleged simplistic tricks. There's no way the Byss fleet is a huge percentage of the total Imperial starfleet; and if it is, its still clearly irrelevant because the most impressive conquests of the period take place without resort to it or the Galaxy Gun.

Add to that that OSH to a large extent relied in the early days on surprise and speed to blitz the New Republic, combined with the sudden re-emergence of the Emperor. Now with such a huge loss to the Imperials and the NR well established in their opposing role, with secure fleet bases and operating points, the OSH strategy is going to be of only very limited use, assuming it even HAS a contingency for 'Emperor dead, core fleet and superweapons gone'.

The Emperor was quite clearly not personally involved in the planning and execution of the campaigns; for much of the early campaign, the galaxy was still convinced he was dead. For much of the later campaign, he WAS dead or otherwise looking for Skywalker or looking to extend his loan on immortality. The harmonization of the former warlord states, the post-Thrawn Imperial State-beyond-the-Deep-Core, and the Imperial State-within-the-Deep-Core took place while Palpatine was still publicly unknown. Remember both before (the capture of Coruscant et al) and throughout Dark Empire his existence and influence is hidden and his control is exercised through proxies (compare to his influence over the Confederacy of Independent System as Darth Sidious, patron of the Seperatist leaders). That his personal involvement and public prestige was required for the Imperial momentum and victories is not borne out of the evidence. Furthermore, assuming the Byss force was the core fleet, an essential presumption of your argument is continuity from the observation (Dark Empire) to the destruction of the site (Empire's End), in which case this supposed core fleet was a spectator to the stunning reversal against the New Republic, and thus superfluous to it. Its integral importance to victory is not borne out by the evidence. And lastly, the Empire was already winning before the Galaxy Gun was deployed. They'd already reduced the New Republic to below 50% of the galaxy without resort to special weapons, and the Galaxy Gun was more psychological than anything else, it was only able to fire a half dozen times, and its effectiveness was more its symbolic embodiment of the strategic failure and inferiority of the New Republic to the Empire. In a general war scenario, its refire rate over the months it was deployed is unimpressive in a universe where mining - a single facet of an economy, encompasses billions of worlds in a part of the galaxy; and its unknown - due to its more subtle operating mechanisms - how resilient it would remain to countermeasures and defense compared to the brute force of the Death Star siegecraft.

[Starglider]

Flaw or design feature? Absolute loyalty depends on the inability to question orders or spend time wondering about things outside the mission parameters. Otherwise, complicating factors may emerge and you have a droid rebellion on your hands.

This is a question of programmer competence. If the orders are a consistent and accurate description of the emporer's intent, 'questioning' them isn't a problem (because they're perfectly valid) and 'wondering about things outside the mission parameters' can only improve performance (as long as it doesn't distract from more important things). Problems come when the orders are inconsistent or incomplete. If they're inconsistent, a rational AI system will attempt to find the closest consistent analogue and execute that, a process which is in practice almost certain to be rather unpredictable and error prone. Incompleteness is a problem when the AI infers some nonobvious thing (generalisation, usually) from the original orders and proceeds to execute it, not realising that that it was never intended to do that (but no one anticipated it so there was no explicit instruction not to).

None of that is rocket science really, both failure modes are obvious enough to have featured in numerous sci-fi stories about evil AIs, though of course the specifics are usually implausible.

[Sidewinder]

Flaw or design feature? Absolute loyalty depends on the inability to question orders or spend time wondering about things outside the mission parameters. Otherwise, complicating factors may emerge and you have a droid rebellion on your hands.

This is a question of programmer competence. If the orders are a consistent and accurate description of the emporer's intent, 'questioning' them isn't a problem (because they're perfectly valid) and 'wondering about things outside the mission parameters' can only improve performance (as long as it doesn't distract from more important things). Problems come when the orders are inconsistent or incomplete. If they're inconsistent, a rational AI system will attempt to find the closest consistent analogue and execute that, a process which is in practice almost certain to be rather unpredictable and error prone. Incompleteness is a problem when the AI infers some nonobvious thing (generalisation, usually) from the original orders and proceeds to execute it, not realising that that it was never intended to do that (but no one anticipated it so there was no explicit instruction not to).

Considering that Palpatine died multiple times during the period from the Battle of Endor to 'Empire's End', we can assume there were periods when, due to the Emperor's absense, the AI was unable to receive consistent and accurate descriptions of his intent, and was forced to "guess" what they were. Palpatine will likely be resurrected, only to find his empire near collapse because without his guidance, when the AI found itself in a wet paper bag, its thoughts ended up getting it and the Imperial forces it commanded into the toilet.

[Illuminatus Primus]

Flaw or design feature? Absolute loyalty depends on the inability to question orders or spend time wondering about things outside the mission parameters. Otherwise, complicating factors may emerge and you have a droid rebellion on your hands.

This is a question of programmer competence. If the orders are a consistent and accurate description of the emporer's intent, 'questioning' them isn't a problem (because they're perfectly valid) and 'wondering about things outside the mission parameters' can only improve performance (as long as it doesn't distract from more important things). Problems come when the orders are inconsistent or incomplete. If they're inconsistent, a rational AI system will attempt to find the closest consistent analogue and execute that, a process which is in practice almost certain to be rather unpredictable and error prone. Incompleteness is a problem when the AI infers some nonobvious thing (generalisation, usually) from the original orders and proceeds to execute it, not realising that that it was never intended to do that (but no one anticipated it so there was no explicit instruction not to).

Considering that Palpatine died multiple times during the period from the Battle of Endor to 'Empire's End', we can assume there were periods when, due to the Emperor's absense, the AI was unable to receive consistent and accurate descriptions of his intent, and was forced to "guess" what they were. Palpatine will likely be resurrected, only to find his empire near collapse because without his guidance, when the AI found itself in a wet paper bag, its thoughts ended up getting it and the Imperial forces it commanded into the toilet.

Because that's exactly what happened when Palpatine was alive but aloof and the SHS was at the helm (Imperial harmonization and coalition campaign, the DE campaign) and when he was dead (from the end of DE to DE2) when the Empire made stunning gains at the NR's expense. And further when he was clearly disposed with issues of either filling Lord Vader's boots or his own immortality (the rest of DE2 and EE)? The Empire was winning and decisively that entire time without Palpatine to give constant marching orders to the SHS and when he was unable to do anything because he was dead.

And suddenly everything will go to tits where it was previously observed to function very well, why? Because you say so? The SHS is an observably better "big picture" strategist and administrator than Thrawn, Isard, or Pestage.

[phongn]

Well, Publius and I discussed this a bit online, and we noted that unlike Palpatine, the SHS can't assure loyalty. It must have consistent victories, else there may very well be a power struggle as faith is lost in the Shadow Hand System.

Assuming NRI's report on the military balance of power is correct, the Empire cannot afford set-piece N² battles, where the Republic has the advantage through its superior military forces. It may not be able to afford to hunker down in a defensive posture and wait for its industrial power to take hold, either, even with defensive victories. Aggressive-minded leadership may bristle at the need to "hold back" for the sake of some trumped-up computer system, fracturing Imperial unity.

As for the Republic itself --- it must commit early to the offensive. A conservative campaign plays into the Empire's industrial strength. Furthermore, the Republic has lost much of its leadership and most importantly, its logistics base. Even if many supplies could've been evacuated to Rim emergency staging areas, they cannot easily make good on fuel supplies, ammunition and ship damage. They only have few key yards as well, something the Empire must recognize.

[Sidewinder]

Well, Publius and I discussed this a bit online, and we noted that unlike Palpatine, the SHS can't assure loyalty. It must have consistent victories, else there may very well be a power struggle as faith is lost in the Shadow Hand System.

So, unlike Palpatine (who can have Imperial officers killed if they say, "Take those orders and shove it up your ass!"), Shadow Hand can only punish disobedient officers if others are willing to follow its orders, and can do nothing if those ordered to punish the disobedient also say, "Take those orders and shove it up your ass!"?

Palpatine's most loyal followers must be DAMN CAREFUL to keep news of his death a secret, so Imperial officers will assume Shadow Hand's orders are actually from a living Emperor. Otherwise, they can say, "Fuck you, I'm taking my (army, fleet, planet, system, sector) and (defecting to the Rebels, take my forces out from under Imperial command and become a warlord, go join Thrawn's buddies in the Unknown Regions, kill you losers and name myself Emperor, take your pick)!" and Palpatine's followers will have HUGE problems suppressing such rebellious thoughts.

[Illuminatus Primus]

Well, Publius and I discussed this a bit online, and we noted that unlike Palpatine, the SHS can't assure loyalty. It must have consistent victories, else there may very well be a power struggle as faith is lost in the Shadow Hand System.

So, unlike Palpatine (who can have Imperial officers killed if they say, "Take those orders and shove it up your ass!"), Shadow Hand can only punish disobedient officers if others are willing to follow its orders, and can do nothing if those ordered to punish the disobedient also say, "Take those orders and shove it up your ass!"?

Palpatine's most loyal followers must be DAMN CAREFUL to keep news of his death a secret, so Imperial officers will assume Shadow Hand's orders are actually from a living Emperor. Otherwise, they can say, "Fuck you, I'm taking my (army, fleet, planet, system, sector) and (defecting to the Rebels, take my forces out from under Imperial command and become a warlord, go join Thrawn's buddies in the Unknown Regions, kill you losers and name myself Emperor, take your pick)!" and Palpatine's followers will have HUGE problems suppressing such rebellious thoughts.

Did you read DE or DE2 at all? This actually happened between DE and DE2, and the Seven Dark Side Elite seem to be the major component which functions as this fail-safe and loyalty facilitator.

Regardless, there is both a specific tendency by the conspirators responsible for Palpatine's assassination led by Carnor Jax and Sarcev Quest and a general one by the ruling class to secure for themselves the ultimate authority and power of initiative, which both stand to be occupied in this scenario by the SHS. It should move quickly if it can identify the conspirators, to execute them and snuff out this internal coup.

[TC Pilot]

Assuming whatever was left of the Empire following Byss's total destruction is charismatic and popular enough to actually keep the various former-warlords and splinter factions from refragmenting the Empire, the New Republic is doomed. It simply lacks the military force and industrial base to match what Palpatine's forces managed to retake after Thrawn was assassinated.

While the Empire's occupied holdings would probably be plauged with uprisings and internal dissention, and thus tying up large numbers of troops for garrison duties, Palpatine had a large and solid enough base of logistical operation to maintain the fleet he had held back in the Deep Core for the last six years, and the 1/4 of the former Empire Thrawn had held possession of before his blitz across the galaxy would only help the Imperial situation.

But by no means would the post-Palpatine Empire be very stable. After the civil war that broke out last time, it would probably be impossible to crown a new emperor. Former IRC members would inevitably take prominent roles in governing the post-Palpatine government. Grant could conceivably be cajoled into leaving his retirement, and Palpatine's Dark Side acolytes would be able to command some loyalty from the commanding officers. It all depends on who survived Byss.

Inevitably, either the remaining Imperial officers would force the New Republic fleet into a pitched that would inevitably defeat the rebels, or Mon Mothma and Ackbar are forced to revert back to the Alliance-era strategy, drawing the war on indefinately.

[phongn]

Assuming whatever was left of the Empire following Byss's total destruction is charismatic and popular enough to actually keep the various former-warlords and splinter factions from refragmenting the Empire, the New Republic is doomed. It simply lacks the military force and industrial base to match what Palpatine's forces managed to retake after Thrawn was assassinated.

[snip]

Inevitably, either the remaining Imperial officers would force the New Republic fleet into a pitched that would inevitably defeat the rebels, or Mon Mothma and Ackbar are forced to revert back to the Alliance-era strategy, drawing the war on indefinately.

If NRI's report was accurate, they actually had the upper-hand at this point. Pitched battle would seem to work in the NRDF's favor, not the Empire's, and industrial output won't come into play in the short-term.

I don't think Alliance-era strategy will work, either. The NRDF is a large, conventional fleet now with all the requisite requirements demanded. They'll run out of ammunition, fuel and supplies that way.

[Vehrec]

Flaw or design feature? Absolute loyalty depends on the inability to question orders or spend time wondering about things outside the mission parameters. Otherwise, complicating factors may emerge and you have a droid rebellion on your hands.

This is a question of programmer competence. If the orders are a consistent and accurate description of the emporer's intent, 'questioning' them isn't a problem (because they're perfectly valid) and 'wondering about things outside the mission parameters' can only improve performance (as long as it doesn't distract from more important things). Problems come when the orders are inconsistent or incomplete. If they're inconsistent, a rational AI system will attempt to find the closest consistent analogue and execute that, a process which is in practice almost certain to be rather unpredictable and error prone. Incompleteness is a problem when the AI infers some nonobvious thing (generalisation, usually) from the original orders and proceeds to execute it, not realising that that it was never intended to do that (but no one anticipated it so there was no explicit instruction not to).

None of that is rocket science really, both failure modes are obvious enough to have featured in numerous sci-fi stories about evil AIs, though of course the specifics are usually implausible.

I was referring to the specifically handicapped and over-controlled CIS droids and not other robots and AIs that might be in use. R2-D2 can obviously innovate enough to lie in order to allow him to execute his missions, as seen in Star Wars. Many other droids have innovative traits, not the least of which were those little processor cubes from the Han Solo novels, Blue Max in that specific instance.

[Publius]

For the purposes of this scenario, the Shadow Hand computer makes decisions exactly as Palpatine himself would given the same inputs (which is why the ultimate inability to achieve the dark side apotheosis he desired may eventually become an issue for Shadow Hand, which continues to regard the apotheosis of Palpatine as its ultimate objective despite its now impossibility).

[Illuminatus Primus]

I was referring to the specifically handicapped and over-controlled CIS droids and not other robots and AIs that might be in use. R2-D2 can obviously innovate enough to lie in order to allow him to execute his missions, as seen in Star Wars. Many other droids have innovative traits, not the least of which were those little processor cubes from the Han Solo novels, Blue Max in that specific instance.

And your repeated insistence that this attribute must apply to a mechanism which has demonstrated more strategic fortitude than any of its organic predecessors and exhibited none of the expected behaviors consistent with your unsupported assumption is justified how?

[Vehrec]

I'm sorry, what are you referring to? I was simply stating that CIS droids and computers were probably mentally crippled on purpose due to Trade Federation paranoia. Making a creative AI that can deal with Outside Context Problems is not a problem for the powers in the GFFA.

[Illuminatus Primus]

I'm sorry, what are you referring to? I was simply stating that CIS droids and computers were probably mentally crippled on purpose due to Trade Federation paranoia. Making a creative AI that can deal with Outside Context Problems is not a problem for the powers in the GFFA.

Okay, in which case, what's the relevance?

[Warsie]

When Byss went up, didn't it also take a very big chunk of the Imperials core strategic fleet forces with it? The big Star Dreadnaughts, Battleships, Battlecruisers and so on that gave their fleets a real edge against the NRDF fleets?

not by Empire's End. The Fleet orbiting Byss was noticeably thinner by that time, the losses were much less than if it was earlier.

Add to that that OSH to a large extent relied in the early days on surprise and speed to blitz the New Republic, combined with the sudden re-emergence of the Emperor. Now with such a huge loss to the Imperials and the NR well established in their opposing role, with secure fleet bases and operating points, the OSH strategy is going to be of only very limited use, assuming it even HAS a contingency for 'Emperor dead, core fleet and superweapons gone'.

The main reason the NR retook the Galaxy was because the Imperials retreated completely to the Deep Core after Palpatine died and the Interim Ruling Council collapsed. They abandoned Coruscant and the other Core Worlds, save for a few warlords who still fought there.

Add to that that OSH to a large extent relied in the early days on surprise and speed to blitz the New Republic, combined with the sudden re-emergence of the Emperor.

by then the NR Fleet was being defeated by more 'conventional' tactics that pushed it back to the rim, using sheer numbers if needed ("Wave attacks" from DE)

Considering the real Palpatine's difficulty dealing with unforseen things, e.g., Vader's betrayal and self-sacrifice to kill him, I doubt Shadow Hand will do any better, even if Imperial researchers solved the "can't think creatively" problem that was mentioned as a flaw of the Trade Federation and CIS' droid army.

As others said, that could have been intentional crippling by the Confederates to maintain control. Also, assuming that was due to a gap in technology, by Dark Empire the Imperials had intelligent drone fighters (SD War Droids and TIE Drones).

[Illuminatus Primus]

The main reason the NR retook the Galaxy was because the Imperials retreated completely to the Deep Core after Palpatine died and the Interim Ruling Council collapsed. They abandoned Coruscant and the other Core Worlds, save for a few warlords who still fought there.

The Imperial Interim Ruling Council was established by Jax and his co-conspirators in the original, canonical timeline after the events of the OP. Following Endor, the Imperial Ruling Council itself falls by the wayside in favor of successive regencies by the Grand Vizier Sate Pestage and Director of Imperial Intelligence Ysanne Isard.

The real reason for the Empire's coup against the Core was that the Imperial coalition abandoned much of Thrawn's latest gains to encourage the New Republic to overextend itself strategically, while they invaded the Core directly from an adjacent staging area in a region that was supposed to be more or less totally undeveloped. The victory was an overwhelming coup of technology (the Empire's high-cost development of the Deep Core enclaves which served as the staging areas for the regional offensive), strategy (goading the enemy into overextension with strategic withdrawal and false intelligence), logistics (coordinating a massive joint operation between the Empire proper and six major warlords, as well as successfully transferring forces to the Deep Core and poised for invasion essentially behind enemy lines), and security (concealing the reality of all the aforementioned successfully from the New Republic). The fact that NRI pegged the strategic balance of the Thrawnist Empire and the New Republic at rough parity as of The Last Command and that soon after Dark Empire the New Republic held the "upper hand" (presumably due to the yields of NR mobilization during the interim between The Last Command and Dark Empire and perhaps war losses by the Empire due to the coalition campaign, the Imperial Civil War, and combat during Dark Empire) suggests that it is doubtful a substantial fraction of the Armed Forces sequestered in the Deep Core. Which makes sense; the Deep Core lacks the development, resources, and infrastructure to support a large fraction of a galactic armed force for half a decade.

[Warsie]

The Imperial Interim Ruling Council was established by Jax and his co-conspirators in the original, canonical timeline after the events of the OP. Following Endor, the Imperial Ruling Council itself falls by the wayside in favor of successive regencies by the Grand Vizier Sate Pestage and Director of Imperial Intelligence Ysanne Isard.

yes, I was referring to that (bolded). After the Reborn Palpatine's Death in Dark Empire. They refer to it in the NEC how the Imperial Fleet abandoned all their gains in the Dark Empire series.

I might have not phrased it right, sorry.

The real reason for the Empire's coup against the Core was that the Imperial coalition abandoned much of Thrawn's latest gains to encourage the New Republic to overextend itself strategically, while they invaded the Core directly from an adjacent staging area in a region that was supposed to be more or less totally undeveloped.

Didn't the Imperial Forces who were lead by Thrawn simply collapse and retreat, and Palpatine used that as a good chance to invade the Core from the Deep Core as the NR fleets were still pursuing as you mentioned in your post?

The victory was an overwhelming coup of technology (the Empire's high-cost development of the Deep Core enclaves which served as the staging areas for the regional offensive), strategy (goading the enemy into overextension with strategic withdrawal and false intelligence), logistics (coordinating a massive joint operation between the Empire proper and six major warlords, as well as successfully transferring forces to the Deep Core and poised for invasion essentially behind enemy lines), and security (concealing the reality of all the aforementioned successfully from the New Republic).

Correct, but IIRC the New Republic did know that fleets were disappearing into the Deep Core. The fleets were disappearing into those fortress worlds for a few years now and the NR knew of it. They didn't pay attention to the extent of the Imperial Fleet or they didn't know of the extent (due to destroyed records in Coruscant, the NR being Rebels from Outer Rim Worlds mainly at the time and not too many defections from those types of ships, etc. also explaining why all larger then ISD ships are called "super" Star destroyers)

Hence, why by Thrawn's takeover of the 1/4 of the Galaxy that was still Imperial, he only had an ISD that he could use as his flagship; Moff Kaine was too greedy to give him Reaper, which was the biggest warship out there at the time (at the Outer Rim Imperial Remnants 5 yrs post-Endor)

The fact that NRI pegged the strategic balance of the Thrawnist Empire and the New Republic at rough parity as of The Last Command

wasn't that said by Han in Heir to the Empire?

EDIT: the point was that by TLC the Imperials had the advantage. The NR has a balance with the Empire in HTTE, but they had an advantage in training and motivation. By TLC, it reslly eroded based off Ackbar's statements as the NR fleet prepared to go to Bilbringi.

and that soon after Dark Empire the New Republic held the "upper hand" (presumably due to the yields of NR mobilization during the interim between The Last Command and Dark Empire and perhaps war losses by the Empire due to the coalition campaign, the Imperial Civil War, and combat during Dark Empire) suggests that it is doubtful a substantial fraction of the Armed Forces sequestered in the Deep Core.

If that is so, then why did Thrawn have to scavenge 200 Rendili Dreadnaughts to bring the balance in favor of the Empire? Why was he forced to use ISD Chimaera as his flagship? Most of the fleet was in the Deep Core, forcing the remnants in the rim to use conscription to maintain their forces.

Which makes sense; the Deep Core lacks the development, resources, and infrastructure to support a large fraction of a galactic armed force for half a decade.

I believe it was less than 5 years, more of 3 to 4 years and it was a gradual increase in fleet strength, not a sudden loss in power. And Also, I believe Imperial supply lines were redirected as well and people just thought it was part of the mass confusion after Endor and the crippling of the state apparatus

[Illuminatus Primus]

Didn't the Imperial Forces who were lead by Thrawn simply collapse and retreat, and Palpatine used that as a good chance to invade the Core from the Deep Core as the NR fleets were still pursuing as you mentioned in your post?

They were not distinct; the coalition campaign included the forces under the Emperor's Ruling Circle (the ruling class in the Empire; Thrawn had technically served as Supreme Commander at their behest, in practice he was shogun of the Empire) and "six former starfleet commanders" (i.e., warlords). The ERC ruled the Empire before Thrawn and remained afterward, so it stands to reason they reassumed power in fact as well as theory with the dissipation of Thrawn's shogunate upon his death. Both Thrawn's Empire and the warlords with their citadels situated on the edge of the Deep Core participated in the coalition campaign. The DE prologue states that the Empire's attacks only intensified and continued after Thrawn's death instead of dissipating, and adds that the assault on Coruscant occurred only days later. However, we know now that there was nearly some six months; reconciling the sources suggest that the ERC immediately reassumed direct control of the Empire and under Palpatine's instructions, carried out a stratagem to lure the New Republic into a position for a devastating strike on their center of gravity.

Correct, but IIRC the New Republic did know that fleets were disappearing into the Deep Core. The fleets were disappearing into those fortress worlds for a few years now and the NR knew of it. They didn't pay attention to the extent of the Imperial Fleet or they didn't know of the extent (due to destroyed records in Coruscant, the NR being Rebels from Outer Rim Worlds mainly at the time and not too many defections from those types of ships, etc. also explaining why all larger then ISD ships are called "super" Star destroyers)

Evidence? The Fortress worlds, also, if you take notice, were primarily an Imperial Civil War phenomena (Dark Empire Sourcebook).

Hence, why by Thrawn's takeover of the 1/4 of the Galaxy that was still Imperial, he only had an ISD that he could use as his flagship; Moff Kaine was too greedy to give him Reaper, which was the biggest warship out there at the time (at the Outer Rim Imperial Remnants 5 yrs post-Endor)

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. One cannot state affirmatively because Thrawn used Chimaera as his flagship that larger ships did not exist anywhere. Ardus Kaine's Reaper served as his flagship within the Imperialist warlord state of the Pentastar Alignment, which was not part of the Empire and thus not subject to Thrawn's imperium as shogun - greed does not necessarily have anything to do with it.

wasn't that said by Han in Heir to the Empire?

I believe its in the TLC Sourcebook.

EDIT: the point was that by TLC the Imperials had the advantage. The NR has a balance with the Empire in HTTE, but they had an advantage in training and motivation. By TLC, it reslly eroded based off Ackbar's statements as the NR fleet prepared to go to Bilbringi.

In TLC there's only been a month or two perhaps of "hot" war, and Leia Organa Solo notes that the war with the Empire had gone from a mopping up action to a genuine fight. The NR was definitely superior as of HttE.

If that is so, then why did Thrawn have to scavenge 200 Rendili Dreadnaughts to bring the balance in favor of the Empire? Why was he forced to use ISD Chimaera as his flagship? Most of the fleet was in the Deep Core, forcing the remnants in the rim to use conscription to maintain their forces.

Most of the fleet was not in the Core, because there is both insufficient evidence, it is unlikely that somehow all of the forces could be supported and concealed indefinitely in the Core, and lastly, none of this can adequately explain how or why the NR is militarily superior to the Empire after Dark Empire, if all these magically hid forces suddenly turned up. Furthermore, it is useless to overspeculate on the composition of forces and the size/scale of the ships that make them up on the strategic level. 200 Rendili Dreadnaughts are really barely the equivalent of the ISD complement alone of a poorly staffed Sector Group. The DS2 production rate should have been able to produce the Dark Force within a day. Excessive analysis of these strategic issues is impossible to reconcile with a holistic and realistic view of SW industry, economy, and productive force.

None of the TTT really makes sense looked at through a microscope and taken at face value. The Tantiss facility could only have decanted less than a hundred thousand troops before it war destroyed; C'boath's gimmicks could only be applied directly on a merely tactical level; there were only a few cloaking shields built and equipped. The only explanation which satisfies a sense of realism was Thrawn was using psy ops, political interference, sleights of hand, and special tactics as a kind of "force multiplier" - especially in its psychological impact. Clearly the clones and 200 Dreadnaughts, C'boath, and the cloaking shields could not really have made a significant impact (even had Thrawn not died, before these could've been deployed on a strategically relevant scale would have taken quite some time) other than psychologically in a supposedly galaxy-spanning campaign the reclaimed galactically significant spans of territory.

I believe it was less than 5 years, more of 3 to 4 years and it was a gradual increase in fleet strength, not a sudden loss in power. And Also, I believe Imperial supply lines were redirected as well and people just thought it was part of the mass confusion after Endor and the crippling of the state apparatus

Where would these crewmen live? Where would their food be grown? Where would their supplies come from? Spare parts? Etc. etc. etc.? Its simply fantastic beyond believability that most of the Imperial armed forces could vanish with no one on either side the wiser and with none of it ever replaced, and somehow be supported in a barren region with no resources, and all the while after it is unleashed on the galaxy somehow half way through the campaign the OTHER SIDE has the advantage. Its better to speculate that the events of the Thrawn Trilogy and other EU sources are more "impressionistic" or "pseudohistorical" and that what ship names and types are given are less important than the general events and personalities' actions or that the real action or equipment simply exists "off-screen."

You may have lots of questions and analysis regarding fleet makeup and strength at various periods, but we have a direct citation by in-universe military intelligence that the NR has the military upper-hand after DE, which we must reconcile with the heavy force concentrations in DE and the known relative parity of forces only several months earlier in the Thrawn campaign. The only way to logically reconcile those facts is if the Imperial forces remained mostly constant, or were slightly depleted, and that the New Republic forces mobilized and bolstered and/or were depleted at a lesser net rate than the Empire. I do not prefer the latter hypothesis because the campaign obviously was supposed to favor the Empire considerably and it hinged for a significant period on fighting around the force concentrations of the New Republic, so I prefer the idea that the NR's advantage comes from Thrawn's War mobilization which paid dividends before and about the coalition campaign and DE. Imagine that the fleet move which places the Core Worlds open to the Empire was the counteroffensive strategic planners intended in response to the Thrawn campaign and took advantage of NR mobilization.

Circumstantial evidence cannot override direct citation of in-universe facts and intelligence perspectives. Keep in mind Brigadier Darkmere's intelligence briefing on the Empire takes place after General (ret.) Master Jedi Luke Skywalker has returned from Byss after having served as the Supreme Commander of the reunified Empire and directing the war effort (depicted through DE) it stretches credibility beyond the breaking point that the New Republic could be ignorant in large part of what they were up against by this point.