Obama: No More Debates before May 6

[Oni Koneko Damien]

McCain is despicable, but he's the known despicable that people now come to expect from the republitards. The Hildebeast is just pathetic, sort of like the little stupid twerp who isn't capable of hanging out with the biggest, stupidest bully in the yard, but tries to emulate him in every way and generally earns the ire of all the other kids in the playground.

But the true idiots here are the American public. They've not only been fed every fucking bone in the pile, but the feeders are now actively digging in the local graveyard for more shit to hand them in regards to why they should ditch these two fucknuts and go with Obama...

...and they still won't.

Joe Q. Public has been given every chance in the world to see reason, and then some. *All* that he has to do is stop apathetically going along with whatever the TV tells him for just a few seconds and seriously think about things. Yet the vast majority of the US public, as these polls indicate, aren't willing to do that.

If Obama gets the nomination, I'll start having some faint glimmer of hope in the populace again and will happily immerse myself in any local politics to give him what little leg up I can help provide. If Hillary takes the nomination, fairly or otherwise... fuck it. The US citizens had a chance for positive change handed to them on a silver fucking platter, and they rejected it. Fuck them, fuck the country. The US deserves the corrupt, psuedo-fascist playground of McCain or the immature, 'I swear I'm not republican!' bullshit of Hillary if they are this easily manipulated.

If Obama doesn't get the nomination, I say fuck US politics. The citizenry and the people in power are obviously not interested in any sort of improvement, and I have better things to do on election day than waste my time with a meaningless vote against the media-led will of a herd of cattle.

A five-year-old is capable of more in depth critical thought than this bunch of mindless sheep.

[SirNitram]

For those thinking the nomination could go the other way...

Please introduce me to this new method of addition. Unless someone seriouisly thinks Hillary can start winning 70+% of every state left. She didn't manage that in Pennsylvania.

[Oni Koneko Damien]

If McCain wins things don't improve, but they don't get worse either, the general impression is that he's Bush Mk.2, more of the same.

It's a really sad day when a Bush-clone is seen as the lesser-evil. But I don't agree with the assessment that things won't get worse under McCain. Bush has things on a growing downhill slide, and McCain will gladly continue that. Bush had the benefit of starting at the very top of the hill, economically, and working up speed from there. McCain, on the other hand, will be taking up the reigns when the US has already picked up a good deal of speed on its economic/diplomatic/military downward spiral and things will only speed up with 'more of the same'.

In other words, 'more of the same', in my opinion, means 'A whole lot worse, a whole lot faster'.

[Rye]

For those thinking the nomination could go the other way...

Please introduce me to this new method of addition. Unless someone seriouisly thinks Hillary can start winning 70+% of every state left. She didn't manage that in Pennsylvania.

Are nominations actually determined by voter popularity and not the whims of the party? Is that what happened with John Kerry? I don't recall him being as popular as Dean, for instance, was that not the case?

[SirNitram]

For those thinking the nomination could go the other way...

Please introduce me to this new method of addition. Unless someone seriouisly thinks Hillary can start winning 70+% of every state left. She didn't manage that in Pennsylvania.

Are nominations actually determined by voter popularity and not the whims of the party? Is that what happened with John Kerry? I don't recall him being as popular as Dean, for instance, was that not the case?

It's controlled by delegates, which are assigned to candidates by the votes in various states. What happened to Dean? He had enthusiasm but he lost the votes.

Oh, there are Superdelegates, yes.. But Obama's lead and the massive fundraising empire(Not to mention new voters, infrastructure, and inspiration) he's built up mean he's already caught up to or surpassed Clinton in those 'party machine' folks who are elected, and has tightened the SuperDel gap considerably.

Here's the bottom line: Unless Hillary does absurdly well in the next primaries, she must terrify the vast majority of remaining Superdelegates to reach the required number. Obama can coast on his present poll numbers and still will need only a third of them. And he's been gaining alot more than her lately.

The only possible way she makes up the lead is if Michigan and Florida get seated as-is, which won't happen. They broke rules. Both states have voted against re-votes. So that leaves split down middle(No gain for Hillary), or seat the Supers from those according to the votes.

So yes, shock, amazement, popularity matters. Dean got people excited but didn't get enough of them.

[Strider]

Here's the bottom line: Unless Hillary does absurdly well in the next primaries, she must terrify the vast majority of remaining Superdelegates to reach the required number. Obama can coast on his present poll numbers and still will need only a third of them. And he's been gaining alot more than her lately.

At this point, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Hil did terrify enough Supers into going over to her at the convention through some despicable means. She's proven to be at least an equal, if not a greater evil than McCain at this point, if only because if she gets elected, then in 2012 we'll definitely have to choose between her and another republican, meaning that Clinton's election secures another eight bloody years of republican or republican-lite in the White House.

[Gerald Tarrant]

Here's the bottom line: Unless Hillary does absurdly well in the next primaries, she must terrify the vast majority of remaining Superdelegates to reach the required number. Obama can coast on his present poll numbers and still will need only a third of them. And he's been gaining alot more than her lately.

At this point, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Hil did terrify enough Supers into going over to her at the convention through some despicable means. She's proven to be at least an equal, if not a greater evil than McCain at this point, if only because if she gets elected, then in 2012 we'll definitely have to choose between her and another republican, meaning that Clinton's election secures another eight bloody years of republican or republican-lite in the White House.

There were quite a few stories about Hillary Clinton's vindictiveness as the first lady. Some superdelegates may be thinking, "What if we vote for Obama and Hillary wins?" I'm not talking about Vince Foster conspiracy garbage, rather the more mundane ability of a President to spoil the electoral chances of those superdelegates that annoy her. I don't think that anyone is worried about a backlash if they vote against Obama and he wins. The Clinton reaction when Governor Richards endorsed Obama is kind of indicative of the problem superdelegates are facing. So what we have is a collective action problem, no one wants to be the first to act (and heaven forbid endorse the wrong candidate) and ruin their political career. So the Supers are probably going to wait for as long as they can, and hope the mess resolves itself.

[Rye]

It's controlled by delegates, which are assigned to candidates by the votes in various states. What happened to Dean? He had enthusiasm but he lost the votes.

Did Kerry seriously get the popular vote? That's hilarious.

Here's the bottom line: Unless Hillary does absurdly well in the next primaries, she must terrify the vast majority of remaining Superdelegates to reach the required number. Obama can coast on his present poll numbers and still will need only a third of them. And he's been gaining alot more than her lately.

The only possible way she makes up the lead is if Michigan and Florida get seated as-is, which won't happen. They broke rules. Both states have voted against re-votes. So that leaves split down middle(No gain for Hillary), or seat the Supers from those according to the votes.

So yes, shock, amazement, popularity matters. Dean got people excited but didn't get enough of them.

I was more concerned with the media's influence over the political situation. I'm thinking of Fox calling Florida for Bush preemptively and everyone else falling in line afterwards and the knock on effect that had on the whole process. In this case, there's been the manufactured horse race which I fear the decision makers buying into, and if they believe both are about equally as popular, they may opt for the one that is more in line with the safety of the establishment. Someone might start a meme that Hillary is nominated and influence the rest of the process, someone might cheat somewhere, etc.

Maybe I'm being paranoid, but I won't trust anything till Obama's the new president.

[SirNitram]

The Media has exactly one preference here: McCain. Watch anytime they fawn over him, bring him doughnuts, or call him the 'Coolest kid in school'. They will trash and slime both Dems. They always do.

Yes, you're paranoid about Clinton. Any more and I expect you'll bring up Vince Foster(A retarded claim by the Right Wing in the throes of their full-on Clinton Hate).

[Adrian Laguna]

It's a really sad day when a Bush-clone is seen as the lesser-evil. But I don't agree with the assessment that things won't get worse under McCain. Bush has things on a growing downhill slide, and McCain will gladly continue that. Bush had the benefit of starting at the very top of the hill, economically, and working up speed from there. McCain, on the other hand, will be taking up the reigns when the US has already picked up a good deal of speed on its economic/diplomatic/military downward spiral and things will only speed up with 'more of the same'.

I was talking about foreign policy, and how the rest of the world views the United States. Certainly the internal situation under McCain would suck balls, but in terms of how other countries deal with us, they just have to do the same thing they do with Bush. Foreign countries can expect to be able to count on McCain to stick to his guns, so even if they don't like him at least the predictability makes it possible to deal with it. Clinton, on the other hand, is liable to do anything if she feels it suits her. Having to deal with that is a rather scary prospect.