The Global Food Crisis

[MKSheppard]

If Ug99 breaks free in Asia there will be, and god help us all if the spores make their way to North America before we complete a changeover to resistant varieties of wheat.

You mean like SARS/birdflu/whatever was supposed to kill us all?

[Darth Wong]

If Ug99 breaks free in Asia there will be, and god help us all if the spores make their way to North America before we complete a changeover to resistant varieties of wheat.

You mean like SARS/birdflu/whatever was supposed to kill us all?

This is the sad thing about our great success at stopping major pandemics like smallpox: people with a short view of history can actually tell themselves stupid shit like "contagious disease fears are just a load of horseshit". Not like those terrifying WMDs in Iraq.

[Alan Bolte]

I think Ossus is sort of right. If you live in the U.S., there's no need to stock up on food because there won't be enough to go around in three months, rather it looks smart to stock up because prices are soaring right now and even if you don't lose your job you certainly aren't getting a raise in line with food and fuel price increases. I find it unlikely that prices will properly go back to normal in three months, but they could easily level off or fall a bit by then. Hell, they could do it tomorrow, things are so volatile. Some of it is driven by panic, to be sure, but mostly it's rational self-interest.

[J]

If Ug99 breaks free in Asia there will be, and god help us all if the spores make their way to North America before we complete a changeover to resistant varieties of wheat.

You mean like SARS/birdflu/whatever was supposed to kill us all?

Kenya and several other African countries have already lost half their wheat crops to Ug99, and tests on the spores which have blown over to Yemen indicate the new strain may be even more virulent. Unlike SARS or birdflu which were mostly contained with few deaths, Ug99 is out there, spreading, and killing 70-100% of all infected crops.

[The Yosemite Bear]

why am I thinking that PETA is just drooling over the prospect that we may be selling "Soylent Green" in some countries in the near future...

[Master of Ossus]

Because first-world countries magically produce enough rice? I'm sure the Norwegians and Icelanders will be surprised to hear that First-world = guaranteed rice consumption. Oh wait, the free market is magic, isn't it, Ossus?

Are you seriously claiming that the first world is going to run out of food within three months (which, incidentally, coincides with harvest time for many US crops)? THAT is what I was responding to, you idiot. I can see how you'd miss that, though, given that I quoted such a statement in my post.

Moreover, the infrastructure in the US essentially allows American crops to be transported throughout the entire country, if not the entire first world, essentially costlessly in comparison with food imported from third-world areas. So, yeah, I don't think that Norway and Iceland are in any real danger, either, of running out of rice (and we all know how much rice those countries have traditionally consumed). The US can easily produce enough food to feed itself, and in fact exports food throughout the world. So, no, I seriously doubt that the US is in any trouble, let alone in the next three months.

For the record, our bag of Cal Rose was almost empty--that's why I was going to get rice, you dumbass.

I don't give a shit about you--I care about the people who are buying out Costco's as if the US actually is running out of rice.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

Are you seriously claiming that the first world is going to run out of food within three months (which, incidentally, coincides with harvest time for many US crops)? THAT is what I was responding to, you idiot. I can see how you'd miss that, though, given that I quoted such a statement in my post.

There may not be enough food to meet demand, yes. That is quite a different thing from running out, as we consume about twice as much food as we need to, for us to be healthy, but in economic terms it would still be a shortage, as some people like to eat 4,000 calories a day. Now, certainly if we diverted all corn to food and feed instead of the insanity which is bio-diesel, any threat of shortage would vanish rapidly. But we're too stupid to do that.

Moreover, the infrastructure in the US essentially allows American crops to be transported throughout the entire country, if not the entire first world, essentially costlessly in comparison with food imported from third-world areas. So, yeah, I don't think that Norway and Iceland are in any real danger, either, of running out of rice (and we all know how much rice those countries have traditionally consumed). The US can easily produce enough food to feed itself, and in fact exports food throughout the world. So, no, I seriously doubt that the US is in any trouble, let alone in the next three months.

I'm well aware of our infrastructure. The question is if it will arrive here; we don't produce that much rice.


P.S. Milk has reached $6.74 a gallon in Georgia.

[Master of Ossus]

I'm well aware of our infrastructure. The question is if it will arrive here; we don't produce that much rice.

P.S. Milk has reached $6.74 a gallon in Georgia.

Uh... we grow a HELL of a lot of rice, given domestic consumption. 88% of all rice consumed in the US was grown in the US, and the US also supplies over 13% of ALL exported rice in the world and is the third largest exporting nation, after only Thailand and Vietnam.

Source.

As for your claim that there won't be enough food to meet demand, do you even know what these terms mean? US consumption of food has historically been so high precisely because the marginal cost of food has been totally negligible. That's also why places like McDonald's and Burger King have historically increased all of their portion sizes--it costs them NOTHING compared to labor and capital costs. Even if that state of affairs changes, then US consumption patterns will change, but demand will still be met.

[Broomstick]

Went out shopping today - stocked up on a few things partly because we were running low on almost everything and also we got the tax refund check so I felt free to spend without worry on essentials.

Mind you - I've always bought 3-6 weeks worth of non-perishables because it's a good compromise between price and my household storage capacity.

Rice has gone up this year, but around here has not notably jumped in price in recent weeks. Then again, this is corn and wheat country where I live. Although there is some rice consumption in the the upper Midwest/Chicago it's not huge (outside of Chinatowns and other ethnic enclaves).

Aldi had cheap-ass white rice available in up to 10 lb bags (about 4 kilos for you metric types), other varieties (including the long-grain brown I tend to favor) in 2 lb bags (just under 1 kilo). No limits on any of it, but then the people around here who buy at Aldi usually don't have a lot of money on hand to sink into anything and aren't a demographic heavy on rice consumption.

I DID note one anomaly: Couscous is now more expensive than quinoa. It's not that quinoa dropped in price - it didn't - but couscous jumped dramatically. Couscous around here is almost invariably brands imported from the Middle East/Northern Africa, areas affected by Ug99 and, if I recall, also known to eat rice in larger quantities than the US. As I told the Other Half, when our current stock of couscous is gone that's it - we'll be eating quinoa instead.

As a bonus, frozen vegetables were about 40% off this week, yay sales! We will be eating a LOT more green leafy stuff in the near future.

My garden has been slowed by cool weather, and something was digging in one of the beds, and I lost some of the current developing crops to one thing or another but I expected some losses. Assuming no major disaster it should still help out with the food bills over the summer. Breaking sod is a bastard of a job to do by hand, but I opened up about 40 square feet of the backyard so far. Good black prairie dirt, and the sod alone is as thick as my fingers are long. I might be able to open up some more before the planting season is over, but much more than that will have to wait until next year. The Other Half was commenting about the desirability of a deep freeze. Hmmm... "stimulus" check....

[KlavoHunter]

I did a test run earlier today, to test the waters, so to speak, at the grocery stores here in Madison.

I purchased 2 20-pound bags of rice, 10 pounds of assorted dry beans, and 6 cans of tomato sauce (As the recipe on the back of the Roman Beans suggested). Total cost of this was $43. Not bad, for potentially ~2 months' worth of staples.

The rice racks were roughly half-empty at the local Woodman's, and while I was looking at it, two other shoppers were also looking and taking bags - neither of those shoppers were Asian, it must be pointed out.

[Broomstick]

US round-eyes DO eat rice, you know! Not quite like Asians do, but most Americans would miss it sooner or later if it disappeared from their diet. Some traditional dishes, aside from Chinese-American ones, include chicken and rice and beans and rice - both traditional staples of the American south and also of other, impoverished segments of the population. The fact these same groups also often eat things like grits, hominy, and so on doesn't mean they won't miss rice. Especially since corn-into-fuel will make the grits, hominy, cornbread, etc. all more expensive.

Kinda wish I liked buckwheat, but it's never really appealed to me much, and I can't find millet for sale around here outside of bird food....

[KlavoHunter]

US round-eyes DO eat rice, you know!

I know I was pointing it out because some morons like to point their finger and go "HURR, it's just the asians buying up all the rice!", rather than acknowledge that there's a crisis coming on.

[Chris OFarrell]

Its times like these I'm glad Australia is rather paranoid about rust outbreaks.

http://www.biotechnews.com.au/index.php ... p;4;fpid;2

Of course it really does help to have the whole landmass locked off by water. Not an impenetrable defense, but it is a great help.

[Master of Ossus]

US round-eyes DO eat rice, you know!

I know I was pointing it out because some morons like to point their finger and go "HURR, it's just the asians buying up all the rice!", rather than acknowledge that there's a crisis coming on.

Oh, fuck you and your strawmen. The US consumes rice, but (like virtually all countries) exhibits a strong preference for DOMESTIC STRAINS OF RICE (e.g., Cal Rose, brown rice and southern long-grain in the US, basmati variants in India, jasmine in Thailand, etc.). Moreover, American consumption of rice, per capita, is very small compared to most other parts of teh world. US per capita consumption is less than 25 pounds per year, and that includes all of the rice we use as an intermediate good in making cereals, beer and other grain products, etc. Compared with countries like Korea (60+ kilos), China (~90 kilos, estimated by the Chinese government), and Taiwan (~62 kilos), that's not that much. But, moreover, virtually all of their rice is supplied domestically, explaining the very small overall world market for rice that Chris alluded to (noting that Australia--a drought-stricken country--remains one of the world's largest exporters).

But moreover, let's take a look at your earlier statements and check for self-consistency, shall we?

Man, you guys eat a lot of rice. I think I've had one box of Rice-O-Ronie in about 5 years.

I don't; this would be new for me

Hmmm... it seems you don't buy rice on a regular basis. That didn't stop you from planning to buy ONE HUNDRED POUNDS of it, ostensibly as some sort of insurance policy to protect yourself from the impending collapse of Western civilization.

Moreover, you have totally ignored my point about how the US produces more than enough rice to satisfy domestic demand (indeed, US rice typically constitutes 13% of WORLD EXPORTS and had a bumper crop even as production in other countries fell), that even Costco and Sam's Club (that started this retarded alarmism of yours) have only placed restrictions on exotic imported rices from the very countries whose production has fallen off!

Frankly, I'm willing to bet money that your 100 pounds of rice will largely spoil because you won't eat it, and that you're not going to apologize to the people in the world who WILL starve for lack of food, and because people like you pulled US rice off the export market in the first place. I say this not to single you out: I'm sure that a significant fraction of the people buying rice, right now, are doing it because Chicken Littles like you and the US news media are incapable of realistically assessing the situation, and none of them are going to apologize, either. In the meantime, enjoy your Cal Rose (or whatever you decided to get). And if anyone ever DOES claim that it's just Asians buying up rice, proudly raise your hand and describe how you, in fact, have been buying up rice, too, and effectively taking it out of their starving little mouths.

And next time, try to at least maintain a SEMBLANCE of self-consistency?

[HemlockGrey]

I don't understand how people can buy a huge bag of rice and say "Yes, this is what I shall eat for the next three months". Until the world comes apart at the seams and I have to shoot my way into Sam's Club I need more variety in my diet.

[Sarevok]

One would think there would be a few million dead from famine in Asia before Americans even have to consider stockpiling rice. Rice is not the main grain consumed in America. And America is still one of the largest food producing nations. There is no massive famine taking place in countries hit hard by food shortages. It's just a shortage at this stage. Stockpiling food in America of all places at this time does seem like overreacting.

[The Yosemite Bear]

right, and I work in a 4 star restaurant's kitchen. The cooks are actually discussing this over earthday, and how they could modify their menus to appear to be more sensitve to the situation.

[KlavoHunter]

Oh, fuck you and your strawmen.

What the fuck? I wasn't referring to YOU saying that. But if you want to be a cock, be my guest.

But moreover, let's take a look at your earlier statements and check for self-consistency, shall we?

Man, you guys eat a lot of rice. I think I've had one box of Rice-O-Ronie in about 5 years.

I don't; this would be new for me

Hmmm... it seems you don't buy rice on a regular basis. That didn't stop you from planning to buy ONE HUNDRED POUNDS of it, ostensibly as some sort of insurance policy to protect yourself from the impending collapse of Western civilization.

I rarely cook rice personally, yes. How does this invalidate what I have to say? In fact, this SUPPORTS my statements - people who would, on average, not be buying large quantities of rice, are doing so.

No. It's not an insurance policy for the collapse of civilization. If that happens, a bit of rice isn't going to save me. You misunderstand me completely.

I personally am buying it in anticipation of what Alan Bolte said - Here, let me quote him.

I think Ossus is sort of right. If you live in the U.S., there's no need to stock up on food because there won't be enough to go around in three months, rather it looks smart to stock up because prices are soaring right now and even if you don't lose your job you certainly aren't getting a raise in line with food and fuel price increases. I find it unlikely that prices will properly go back to normal in three months, but they could easily level off or fall a bit by then. Hell, they could do it tomorrow, things are so volatile. Some of it is driven by panic, to be sure, but mostly it's rational self-interest.

Bolding mine.

Prices ARE going to go up, and having the ability on-hand to feed myself one or two meals a week from stocks laid in earlier, when prices were lower, instead of blowing progressively larger portions of a relatively fixed paycheck on food for every single day, seems awful smart to me. Do you honestly think I plan on eating rice and beans every single day for the next 6 months or a year? No.

Moreover, you have totally ignored my point about how the US produces more than enough rice to satisfy domestic demand (indeed, US rice typically constitutes 13% of WORLD EXPORTS and had a bumper crop even as production in other countries fell), that even Costco and Sam's Club (that started this retarded alarmism of yours) have only placed restrictions on exotic imported rices from the very countries whose production has fallen off!

I have made no point on that subject - Marina did. I mean, I'm flattered that you've confused the Countess and myself. But how about you wipe the vitriol from your face, quit squinting, and attribute the arguments to whoever actually brought it up?

Frankly, I'm willing to bet money that your 100 pounds of rice will largely spoil because you won't eat it,

You have no idea how long rice lasts when properly stored, do you? And I have every intention of storing it properly. In this manner, it will be perfectly good to eat, whether it potentially be a few months from now, when potentially there is nothing to eat, or potentially a few years from now when I realize "Gosh, I sure was silly back then.". (Though I think I'll buy myself a nice rice cooker, and get in the habit - it's really quite healthy.)

And, hey, if I AM wrong, and I never need any of what I'm buying - Well, I'm only down about $40, and, hell, I'll even come on here and give you the concession you're aching for.

and that you're not going to apologize to the people in the world who WILL starve for lack of food, and because people like you pulled US rice off the export market in the first place. I say this not to single you out: I'm sure that a significant fraction of the people buying rice, right now, are doing it because Chicken Littles like you and the US news media are incapable of realistically assessing the situation, and none of them are going to apologize, either. In the meantime, enjoy your Cal Rose (or whatever you decided to get). And if anyone ever DOES claim that it's just Asians buying up rice, proudly raise your hand and describe how you, in fact, have been buying up rice, too, and effectively taking it out of their starving little mouths.

I'm sorry, am I supposed to apologize for planning ahead to ensure my own self-interest?

And next time, try to at least maintain a SEMBLANCE of self-consistency?

How about you quit rushing around, foaming at the mouth, looking for an argument with the wrong person entirely? No wonder I don't look consistent, if you're attributing someone else's posts to me.

[His Divine Shadow]

I'd like some kind of bioreactor I could keep at home on the farm and feed with it organic waste, we produce loads of biomatter, plants and such from the greenhouses and whatnot. It just goes in the compost heap now. Would be awesome if we could feed it into some device and get ethanol or something from the waste.

[His Divine Shadow]

Oh, above message was meant to be a reply to Gil Hamiltons latest post

[TheMuffinKing]

I'd like some kind of bioreactor I could keep at home on the farm and feed with it organic waste, we produce loads of biomatter, plants and such from the greenhouses and whatnot. It just goes in the compost heap now. Would be awesome if we could feed it into some device and get ethanol or something from the waste.

Do you recycle the compost as fertilizer?

[The Grim Squeaker]

I'd like some kind of bioreactor I could keep at home on the farm and feed with it organic waste, we produce loads of biomatter, plants and such from the greenhouses and whatnot. It just goes in the compost heap now. Would be awesome if we could feed it into some device and get ethanol or something from the waste.

Get some animals, we feed our table scraps to our chickens, and if there's still any left then we dump it onto the vegeteable patches. (But mainly it goes to the 5-6 chickens, and we're a 6 person family).
Your only expense will be 2 initial chickens and a cage or coop (We keep them semi free-range), and you'll have a half dozen+ eggs a day

[salm]

A question concerning the biofuel debate: Our politicians keep telling us that the worldwide space used for growing crops for biofuel is only 3% of the whole space used for growing crops. Therefore the space used for biofule is insignificant and doesn´t affect the price of food on a notable scale. According to them the current food shortage is caused by other things.

Are they bullshitting and in reality it´s more than 3% or are they bullshitting and in reality 3% only sounds little but really affects the food prices or are people simply overreacting?

[Admiral Valdemar]

A question concerning the biofuel debate: Our politicians keep telling us that the worldwide space used for growing crops for biofuel is only 3% of the whole space used for growing crops. Therefore the space used for biofule is insignificant and doesn´t affect the price of food on a notable scale. According to them the current food shortage is caused by other things.

Are they bullshitting and in reality it´s more than 3% or are they bullshitting and in reality 3% only sounds little but really affects the food prices or are people simply overreacting?

They are correct in a sense. The immediate price increases are down to speculation, bad harvests and energy costs. Bio-fuels are a big drain potentially when made from food crops, as they often are in the West, rather than jatropha or palm. Cellulosic would be the Holy Grail, yet the cost and effectiveness is not there yet nor would it ever replace all liquid fuels.

On another note, saw an article about wheat dropping 40% in price. Shall try and find the piece.

[PainRack]

You mean like SARS/birdflu/whatever was supposed to kill us all?

Pneumonia with a 10-15% fatality rate IS deadly no matter how you spin it. Or are you now so wonderfully well versed in history where smallpox had something like 20-30% fatality rate amongst resistant population in Europe, and up to 90% fatality amongst native american indians?

Ditto to Avian flu, which hasn't made the species jump yet.(well, except for that case of possible human to human transmission).