al-Sadr is in Iran

[Jadeite]

Link

NAJAF, Iraq (AFP) - Five Iraqi Shiite MPs are in Iran to hold talks with radical cleric Moqtada al-Sadr in a bid to end the fighting between his militiamen and security forces, an aide to Sadr told AFP on Thursday.

Sheikh Salah al-Obeidi said the lawmakers, led by deputy parliament speaker Sheikh Khalid al-Attiya, travelled to Iran on Wednesday.

"The members of the parliament led by Sheikh Khalid al-Attiya went to Iran to meet Sadr there and other leaders of the Sadr movement who are in Iran to negotiate with him a way out of the crisis," Obeidi said.

It was the first acknowledgement by Sadr's people that he is in Iran.

Rather smart move really, it makes it a lot harder for us to kill him while he's there.

[Mr Bean]

Rather smart move really, it makes it a lot harder for us to kill him while he's there.

Us killing him would hand Iraq over to Iran. Al-Sadar is the only major Shiite group who wants to keep away from Iran. He's safe meeting in Iran despite this because he has enough Lt's to kick the fight back into high gear if he dies on this little trip you see another full scale civil war break out.

Here's the kicker folks, Al-Sadar is much more popular in polling, which is why Talabani has been trying to break his group before the next election, because he knows if Al-Sadar is alive and well his group will lose. It might have something to do with the estimated 40% corruption rate or the fact that even the Iraq press notes that Talabani has been running the government like a mob business. But hey we support him and Al-Sadar is the evil "terrorist". Rather than the "highly popular opposition leader". You can't even call him a terriorist since both he and Talabani have access to Death squads and both have used them against each other and against the Sunnis.

[cosmicalstorm]

Isn't his stay in Iran old news?

[SirNitram]

Very old. When I posted the negotiations where Maliki's folks came, hat in hand, to ask him to please stop, he was in Iran. Jadeite is very silly if he thinks this is news.

But yea. Sadr is the sole Nationalist Shiite of note. Unless you want Iran's sphere growing, you need to find a way to deal with having Sadr.

[Rogue 9]

If that's the case, you'd think Iran is the last place he'd want to be; after all, if they want Iraq and he's all that's effectively in their way, you'd think they'd simply wise up and kill him.

[SirNitram]

If that's the case, you'd think Iran is the last place he'd want to be; after all, if they want Iraq and he's all that's effectively in their way, you'd think they'd simply wise up and kill him.

Given he's in a religious city, seeking religious training, in a highly religious culture, that'd be inviting open revolt against the powers that be after reformers are already making gains in Iran politically. The default assumption, against the idiocy of Cheney, Bush, and Sheppard, is that the Iranians are not suicidal morons.

[Mr Bean]

If that's the case, you'd think Iran is the last place he'd want to be; after all, if they want Iraq and he's all that's effectively in their way, you'd think they'd simply wise up and kill him.

Again see Lt's. He's not gone full force yet because he want to rule a mostly intact Iraq. He's Lieutenants however would go amok if he died in Iran.

[Simplicius]

If that's the case, you'd think Iran is the last place he'd want to be; after all, if they want Iraq and he's all that's effectively in their way, you'd think they'd simply wise up and kill him.

It's quite a leap to assume that Iran considers Sadr an obstacle to be removed when they have been supplying his militia with weapons for months.

Sadr is a tool of limited utility for the Iranians. He can't net them influence because he is a member of the opposition and a nationalist, but he can run US forces on a merry chase and provide a check on Maliki et al. if Iran thinks one is needed.

Also, why are people leaping to assume that Iran "wants Iraq"? Would you want to puppeteer a country in which a third of the population sees you as Enemy Number 1 - and if you wouldn't, why would Iran? Seriously, as long as Iraq and its central government remain weak and Iran has easy access to resource-rich, Shiite-majority parts of the country - i.e. Basra - Iran's strategic goals for Iraq are probably pretty well fulfilled.

[Mr Bean]

Also, why are people leaping to assume that Iran "wants Iraq"? Would you want to puppeteer a country in which a third of the population sees you as Enemy Number 1 - and if you wouldn't, why would Iran? Seriously, as long as Iraq and its central government remain weak and Iran has easy access to resource-rich, Shiite-majority parts of the country - i.e. Basra - Iran's strategic goals for Iraq are probably pretty well fulfilled.

Excuse me I should clarify my position, they don't want Iraq as in land and goverment, but they do want a Iraq hostile to the west and friendly to Iran for the first time in a long time. They fund both Talabani and Al-Sadar to ensure they can't lose(Unless the Kurds win... hah) if Talabani wins, they get a country which is VERY friendly to Iran. If they get Al-Sadar they get at worst a country that is neutral to Iran.

None of this Tom Clancy 'reestablish the Caliphate" bullshit.

[SirNitram]

Also, why are people leaping to assume that Iran "wants Iraq"?

To establish the Caliphate! There's a prophecy about it!

And idiots think that because American religious leaders openly discuss the annihilation of a race and destruction of millions of lies, just to bring about a prophecy, the Muslims must too.

(I'm referring to the 'Let's hurry God up and get Iran to attack Israel, killing most of them, and triggering Rapture' screed, the most powerful political endorser of which is John Hagee.)

[cosmicalstorm]

Isnt a major reason for the Iranian support of the Iraqi guerillas simply to keep the Americans busy?
Im sure that if Iraq had been the cakewalk Cheney etc. dreamed about, the bombs would have been hailing over Teheran and Damascus in no time.