McCain proposes kicking Russia out of G-8

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McCain's proposal to kick Russia out of G-8 is bold and unlikely (McClatchy Newspapers & Yahoo News)

WASHINGTON — John McCain dropped a little-noticed bombshell into his March foreign-policy address: Boot Russia from the G-8, the elite club of leading industrial democracies whose leaders try to coordinate economic policies.

One major problem: He can't do it because the other G-7 nations won't let him.

But the fact that he's proposing to try, risking a return to Cold War tensions with the world's second-largest nuclear power after 20 years of prickly partnership, raises questions about McCain's judgment. It also underscores that many of his top foreign-policy advisers are of the same neo-conservative school that promoted the war in Iraq , argue for a tougher stance toward Iran and are skeptical of negotiating with North Korea over its nuclear program.

The Group of Eight , or G-8, as it's popularly known, makes decisions by consensus, so no single nation can kick out another. Most experts say the six other countries— Great Britain , France , Italy , Germany , Japan and Canada — would never agree to toss Russia , given their close economic ties to their neighbor. A senior U.S. official who deals with Russia policy said that even Moscow would have to approve of its own ouster, given how the G-8 works.

"It's not even a theoretical discussion. It's an impossible discussion," said the senior official, who requested anonymity because he wasn't authorized to speak publicly. "It's just a dumb thing."

Aside from that, many wonder whether McCain's suggestion would be wise policy. They fear that if McCain is elected and follows through on an attempt to toss Russia from the group, it could anger and isolate Russia , which has been increasingly assertive on the world stage, autocratic within its borders and is the second-largest producer of the hydrocarbons that feed the world's energy needs.

"In Europe , there's very little support ... for a policy like that," said Stephen Larrabee , an expert on Europe and Russia at the RAND think tank. "It's too late in the game to try and oust Russia ."

The proposal also seemed at odds with the theme of McCain's speech, which promised a less unilateral approach to world affairs than the Bush White House has pursued. That could reflect tension between two Republican foreign-policy camps vying for influence in McCain's campaign: the pragmatic realists and the hard-line neo-conservatives— with the neo-cons ascendant for now in Russia policy.

"There are a lot of important issues that we need Russia's support on. ...What's to be gained by tossing Russia out? We feel more self-righteous about ourselves?" said Andrew Kuchins , the director of the Russia and Eurasia program at the Center for International and Strategic Studies , a center-right think tank.

Randy Scheunemann , the foreign-policy director for McCain's campaign, acknowledged that "there would be very vigorous discussion" within the G-8 of a proposal to exclude Russia . But, he said, Russia was "on a different political and economic trajectory" when it joined the group a decade ago, and he said it's unlikely that the same invitation would be extended today.

Scheunemann vigorously disputed that the proposal is a product of McCain's neo-con advisers. McCain's position on the issue dates to 2003, he said.

The G-8 is an informal alliance of the world's leading industrialized democracies. Leaders gather annually to discuss a broad range of global issues, from the economy to security to the environment. Ministers from member governments then coordinate policies behind the scenes in accordance with decisions taken at the annual summits.

The alliance was known for years as the G-7 until Russia was admitted in 1997, at the behest of the Clinton administration, as a way to encourage further democratic and economic reforms under President Boris Yeltsin .

Russia has always been an odd fit for the group. While it's risen in recent years to join the ranks of the world's top 10 economies, that's due to its energy exports, not its modest industrial capacity. And its experiment with democracy has gone into reverse in recent years, which makes it doubly out of step with the seven industrial democracies.

McCain's proposal addresses concerns about Russia's behavior, which became more adversarial under President Vladimir Putin (who, though he leaves office this month, will become prime minister and remain Russia's dominant figure). Examples include its meddling in the affairs of neighbors such as Ukraine and Georgia , its threat to aim missiles at other European neighbors in response to President Bush 's plans for a Europe -based missile defense and its crackdown on political dissent.

"It's not from left field," said Derek Chollet , a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security , a bipartisan foreign-policy research institution. "As Russia has de-democratized, there's been this whole question of, `What do we do?' The title is industrialized democracies. If Russia is drifting away from democracy, what do we do with it?"

But McCain's solution "on a scale of one to 10 of possible action, is going to 11," Chollet said.

Instead, "you just have to be cold-hearted about this," said Colin Bradford , an expert in global governance at the Brookings Institution , a center-left Washington research center. "We all believe in human rights and democracy. ...But it doesn't matter what the internal regime looks like. You need them at the table. We've got to figure out the incentives" that will make Russia behave better.

Some agree with McCain's approach.

Ariel Cohen , a senior research fellow at the conservative Heritage Foundation , said McCain's proposal was "right on the money."

"It sends Russia a strong message to stop behaving the way it does," Cohen said. "As long as Russia doesn't behave like a democracy, why should it be in the G-8?"

Cohen added that there are plenty of other forums for Russia to be heard in the world, including bilateral talks, the United Nations and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe .

McCain clearly dislikes Putin. A line he likes to use on the campaign trail is that while Bush looked into Putin's eyes and saw his soul, McCain looked into Putin's eyes and "saw three letters: KGB." Putin was a longtime officer in the Soviet intelligence service.

The feeling appears mutual: McCain and campaign pal Sen. Joseph Lieberman , an independent Democrat from Connecticut , regaled reporters a few months ago with a story of the conference in Munich, Germany , "where Putin last year chose to give his first real strong anti-American speech ...when you saw a real change," McCain said.

"He looked over and glared at me and Joe in the front row a couple of times."

That may be because McCain and Lieberman had sponsored a bill in 2005 urging what McCain is proposing anew: that Russia's G-8 membership be suspended.

What's striking about McCain's proposal is how far it is from the Bush administration's long effort to engage Putin. Democratic presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama also have offered tough rhetoric on Russia .

Of course, Kuchins said, "they're all on the campaign trail. Bush has to actually govern."

[Karza]

Oh, good. I was starting to miss the Cold War. I'm no fan of Putin & Co, shit, having that bunch run things right next door makes me feel just a tad uneasy, but this wouldn't fucking help matters.

Fortunately, as the article says, there's no way in hell this could ever actually happen.

[Sidewinder]

Great, first Hillary (with "totally obliterate Iran") tries to woo the loony right-wingers nostalgic for the Cold War, now McCain. Has becoming a Darwin Award nominee been added to the requirements a person must meet to be a presidential candidate?

[Patrick Degan]

Oh, good. I was starting to miss the Cold War. I'm no fan of Putin & Co, shit, having that bunch run things right next door makes me feel just a tad uneasy, but this wouldn't fucking help matters.

Fortunately, as the article says, there's no way in hell this could ever actually happen.

This scenario can't, but we can see that McCain promises a new bellicosity which will set back relations to the bad old days if he becomes president.

[Pablo Sanchez]

I can't even fathom this as a policy initiative. It doesn't even qualify as stupid. It simply isn't possible to remove Russia from the G-8. Does McCain think that if he pretends hard enough, it will happen? What the fuck?

[Almightyboredone]

Does McCain think that if he pretends hard enough, it will happen? What the fuck?

Well, that does seem to fit with the standard operating procedure of the Republican party.

[Qwerty 42]

It's just posturing. It gives McCain the appearance of being hard on Russia while not actually accomplishing anything, and he knows full well that he isn't accomplishing anything, mark my words.

[K. A. Pital]

Muahaha. Seriously, this idiocy only gives Putin more and more credentials each day.

It's almost as if US politicians want to commit a series of forein policy suicides. Of course, given the legacy of Bush, that seems all the more likely.

[Flagg]

Alot of US politicians seem to not understand that when they say shit in this country, it doesn't stay here. See, people in other countries actually give a fuck about what possible US presidents have to say, and their media does news stories on US politics. It's easy not to realize that since the US media rarely even covers Canadian politics.

[Darth Wong]

That is so true. It's so common for US politicians to say something about a foreign country and then travel to that foreign country and say something completely different, as if we won't know.

[Hawkwings]

Does McCain think that if he pretends hard enough, it will happen? What the fuck?

Well, that does seem to fit with the standard operating procedure of the Republican party.

That's SOP for the majority of the American people, actually.

[Darth Wong]

This is the problem when you have a political environment in which "good judgment" is somehow seen as synonymous with "taking a hard line".

It's all well and good to take a hard line if the situation calls for it, but when "toughness" or "taking a hard line" are viewed as virtually synonymous with good foreign-policy judgment, you have a situation where it is assumed that every situation calls for a hard line, and that's not judgment at all. That's just reflex action.

[Pablo Sanchez]

It's just posturing. It gives McCain the appearance of being hard on Russia while not actually accomplishing anything, and he knows full well that he isn't accomplishing anything, mark my words.

After seven years with a GOP president, do you really believe that these people know when they're posturing for political ends, and when they're serious? I sure as shit don't. I wouldn't put any form of madness past them, and I would not be in the least surprised if a putative President McCain seriously put forward a completely asinine, totally useless initiative to kick Russia out of the G-8.

[K. A. Pital]

Totally useless action, very stupid, but maybe not so. Imagine what a great bogeyman at home would "evil Ruskies" generate! We know around 63% of Americans perceive Russia as enemy/threat, IIRC, so I think he could get domestic boons from idiotic foreign policy. After all, it's not uncommon.

[PeZook]

What, exactly, is he going to accomplish with that move? What concrete good can it bring to the US?

The only things I can imagine is souring relations with Russia and European countries who won't like being seen as American puppets by a pissed-off Russia. Yay for McCain, statesman exquisite!

[Starglider]

So, what are the odds that when McCain finds that he can't get Russia out of the G8, he pulls the US out of the G8 instead? Bunch of pinko liberal countries anyway...

[Pelranius]

And the Fox Na- I mean News Network cheers him on. Meanwhile, Hillary will undoubtedly be proclaiming how proud she is to be an American, along with the rest of the Democratic Party.

Then the G8 will probably get China and India to take our places.

[Sidewinder]

Imagine what a great bogeyman at home would "evil Ruskies" generate! We know around 63% of Americans perceive Russia as enemy/threat, IIRC, so I think he could get domestic boons from idiotic foreign policy. After all, it's not uncommon.

And to think, less than a decade ago, Americans perceived China as the enemy, and right-wing conspiracy theorists like Tom Clancy were saying the US should ally itself with Russia to counter the "Yellow Menace." I wonder if they'll say the US should ally itself with China to counter Russia?

By the way, what are Clancy's Russian counterparts suggesting to counter the increasingly bellicose US? Increase Russia's role in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, get India to become a pro-Russian member of the group, and turn it into an anti-NATO?