SD.net's World OOC/Discussion thread MK II

[K. A. Pital]

That happened in real life.

Orthodox Priests blessed Tanks and Planes in World War II, and also now they blessed the Tu-160 heaviest in the world Mach 2 supersonic bombers

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

Well, in the most idealised situation, if Alexander has control of the army, but Ramsley control of Patriarchy, both can't move against each other without their own people turning on them... since the army is more loyal to Alexander but dare not move against the Patriarch, while the Patriarch doesn't command the loyalty of the army.

The only issue is the Sultan who obviously regards them both to be infidels.

[PeZook]

Well, in the most idealised situation, if Alexander has control of the army, but Ramsley control of Patriarchy, both can't move against each other without their own people turning on them... since the army is more loyal to Alexander but dare not move against the Patriarch, while the Patriarch doesn't command the loyalty of the army.

The only issue is the Sultan who obviously regards them both to be infidels.

We have to decide if our goal is order or unification or both.

Because this will determine our course of action.

[RogueIce]

How about forming a unified international line on this?

We could recognize all three of them as having a claim on their current territorries, and threaten that if any single one of them gets out of line, he will get destroyed.

This will, of course, lead to politicking and warlords trying to use this threat to manufacture a crisis and get rid of their rivals...we'd need observers and intelligence on the ground, since incidents will happen.

Then we'll need to pressure them to improve conditions in their own little fiefdoms, provide security and order and all that.

It's certainly a better solution than just propping up one and having him take over.

You point out the problem right there. They could easily play it into forcing the international community to take sides. Observers are not perfect.

And besides, as it stands no single one of them can even say they have real control over their territories. If hijackers again use them as a haven, we can't very well go in and stop them. Do we just rely on the Warlords to do something about it? They sure haven't in the past. And if they don't, then what? We act against a nation we've all gone and declared soverign?

Us taking sides, even if we're trying to be equal about it, just opens a can of worms I don't think any of us want to deal with. We don't want to get dragged into a war because some militiamen got trigger happy, after all. Or one of the Warlords manages to dupe our intelligence agencies and observers. You don't think that the minute we made such an announcement they wouldn't begin planning how to do just that?

[PeZook]

Us taking sides, even if we're trying to be equal about it, just opens a can of worms I don't think any of us want to deal with. We don't want to get dragged into a war because some militiamen got trigger happy, after all. Or one of the Warlords manages to dupe our intelligence agencies and observers. You don't think that the minute we made such an announcement they wouldn't begin planning how to do just that?

Yeah, that's exactly what I thought. It's what I'd do in their place after all - manufacture an incident and have both alliances come down on my enemy like a ton of bricks.

Well, okay - that's what I'd do if I was a crazy power-hungry warlord

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

We have to decide if our goal is order or unification or both.

Because this will determine our course of action.

Well, there are a couple of issues here. On one hand, I (as Emperor) would prefer status quo. Of course, this status quo constitutes a situation where all 3 sides have been raiding each other for the last few years without any overt invasion. (we seemingly apparently have united 2 of them which now turns our attention to the new dynamic of counter raids) Now, unification might be impossible because of the dormant religious dynamic (which just broke out into the open). So either, we settle for the lesser of two evils, which is a status quo of raids and counter raids with no move to destroy each other because neither is strong enough, or we force them to the bargaining table.

I just hope my Ecumenical Patriarch doesn't blare into my face to intervene and save some Orthodox Catholics.

[K. A. Pital]

And besides, as it stands no single one of them can even say they have real control over their territories.

If we place military bases there, with the help of the warlords, we can at least stabilize their own territories.

At least they will have to allow what essentially amounts to military presence, and a permanent one, in their lands.

Unless that is done, we can't accept any of them into the OMSK.

So if some of them are too uppity about letting foreign troops police their "nation" - well, proto-nation - so be it.

[RogueIce]

Yeah, that's exactly what I thought. It's what I'd do in their place after all - manufacture an incident and have both alliances come down on my enemy like a ton of bricks.

Well, okay - that's what I'd do if I was a crazy power-hungry warlord

Exactly. As it stands now, the truce benefits them. Neither one really has the power to overthrow the other two. And they can't expect outside support.

But us throwing our hats in the ring changes thing. Now they can manufacture an incident, and take out their warlords. And they'll have the rest of the world helping them.

Even unifying the two Orthodox ones makes things worse. If that happens, there's only two blocs out there. Much easier to manufacture an incident against one bloc, then try to potray it as two rivals. It'll be more likely that we'd catch it with two rivals.

And unifying them without the international recognition just outguns the third and makes him an easier target. And really, without international aid the two Orthodox guys will basically just be combining troops that are loyal to each of them: as soon as the Sultan is dealt with they'd be much more likely to target each other. The only way around that is with significant outside influence and assistance (to set it up the way Crossroads mentioned, and have it work). And that brings us back to the problem of backing a faction.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

Personally, I am however, for the stabilisation of their territories; i.e. all 3 of them. Sure, it's one big island, but force them to at least establish a form of government in each of their territories instead of the anarchy. Force them to establish embassies at each other's territories. Force them all to come to an agreement and quit the nonsensical counter raiding.

Now, we could in theory get all 3 powers to stablise each of the 3 warlords. One power per warlord. So each power is responsible for making sure each warlord behaves well. Of course, it should be noted that there must be some strict rules of engagements to be followed here to avoid some major bush fire.

[PeZook]

So either, we settle for the lesser of two evils, which is a status quo of raids and counter raids with no move to destroy each other because neither is strong enough, or we force them to the bargaining table.

Another option is to have them convinced to try and negotiate a proper truce of some sort and go from there, but I'm not sure if their egos will allow it.

A third solution is to occupy the place for fifty years and rebuild it from the ground up, but this has no guarantee of success either.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

So either, we settle for the lesser of two evils, which is a status quo of raids and counter raids with no move to destroy each other because neither is strong enough, or we force them to the bargaining table.

Another option is to have them convinced to try and negotiate a proper truce of some sort and go from there, but I'm not sure if their egos will allow it.

A third solution is to occupy the place for fifty years and rebuild it from the ground up, but this has no guarantee of success either.

Someone must police the truce. We have no UN now, so the issue of neutrality comes to the fore.

[K. A. Pital]

A third solution is to occupy the place for fifty years and rebuild it from the ground up, but this has no guarantee of success either.

I've approximated that we would need an 8,000,000 army (only ground forces) which means OMSK will have to be mobilized for what essentially is war footing.

8,000,000 army is well beyond what we have now.

I've based the estimates on WWII Germany occupation, making nods to WARPAC 70's planning and the advent of modern arms which makes things just a little easier.

[RogueIce]

Now, we could in theory get all 3 powers to stablise each of the 3 warlords. One power per warlord. So each power is responsible for making sure each warlord behaves well. Of course, it should be noted that there must be some strict rules of engagements to be followed here to avoid some major bush fire.

That is potentially even more dangerous if they are successful in deceiving any one us, the conflict could easily spread beyond Terra Libertia and to the powers themselves.

A third solution is to occupy the place for fifty years and rebuild it from the ground up, but this has no guarantee of success either.

I've approximated that we would need an 8,000,000 army (only ground forces) which means OMSK will have to be mobilized for what essentially is war footing.

8,000,000 army is well beyond what we have now.

I've based the estimates on WWII Germany occupation, making nods to WARPAC 70's planning and the advent of modern arms which makes things just a little easier.

Even beyond the issues of neutrality that Fingolfin brought up, and logistics as mentioned by Stas, is that unified government or not, the people of Terra Libertia still live there, and we would be foreign troops imposing our ways upon them. They would have every reason to fight back against us, and we would be forced to either simply fall back (making it a very expensive waste of time and lives) or take the fight to people who are simply, in their view, defending their homes from foreign occupiers.

[PeZook]

Personally, I am however, for the stabilisation of their territories; i.e. all 3 of them. Sure, it's one big island, but force them to at least establish a form of government in each of their territories instead of the anarchy. Force them to establish embassies at each other's territories. Force them all to come to an agreement and quit the nonsensical counter raiding.

The question is: How? How do you do that so that they don't immediately start trying to drag their backer into helping them fight a war and destroy their rivals? You know they'll try...

Now, we could in theory get all 3 powers to stablise each of the 3 warlords. One power per warlord. So each power is responsible for making sure each warlord behaves well. Of course, it should be noted that there must be some strict rules of engagements to be followed here to avoid some major bush fire.

This looks like a massive international incident in the making....unless we state strongly that no international military force will support any agressive moves. Or something.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

The question is: How? How do you do that so that they don't immediately start trying to drag their backer into helping them fight a war and destroy their rivals? You know they'll try...

Well, have OMSK support the Sultan, the other two a pick between FUN and MESS. That way, we won't have conflicts of interests.

This looks like a massive international incident in the making....unless we state strongly that no international military force will support any agressive moves. Or something.

That quite possibly will be the rules of engagement.

[RogueIce]

This looks like a massive international incident in the making....unless we state strongly that no international military force will support any agressive moves. Or something.

The problem being who would declare it aggressive? A warlord would feign an incident and say they have been attacked, and get their power to intervene. But then the accused warlord would turn around and say that they are innocent. And what if their power believes them? We then face a major crisis.

I wouldn't want to take that risk.

The only way to avoid that is if both sides back off and leave the warlords to their own devices. In which case, everything we did was just empty rhetoric and we're no better off than we were before (maybe even worse, as far as Terra Libertia is concerned).

[K. A. Pital]

Turning down the warlords? But what of the case when the plight of their people is genuine? I'm pretty sure that at least Alexander is not having an easy time, with a small shore territory.

I don't know. Personally we will need all of OMSK SC to assemble here (that mesn not just me and Fingolfin, but Shep and Bean) and decide what we do.

As for just dropping Ramsley, I can't. My Air Force Marshall is an Orthodox and she insisted (in RL!!!) that I support him. She has a strong lobby

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

Turning down the warlords? But what of the case when the plight of their people is genuine? I'm pretty sure that at least Alexander is not having an easy time, with a small shore territory.

I don't know. Personally we will need all of OMSK SC to assemble here (that mesn not just me and Fingolfin, but Shep and Bean) and decide what we do.

As for just dropping Ramsley, I can't. My Air Force Marshall is an Orthodox and she insisted (in RL!!!) that I support him. She has a strong lobby

And I have a Patriarch who breathes on me blaring at me in the churches.

But that aside, the issues here can be encapsulated as

1. Neutrality
2. Deception
3. Stabilization.

Unless we deal with all 3 issues, Terra Libertia will be nothing more than a group of 3 rogue states indulging in a mudslinging fest of blood.

[K. A. Pital]

I have an Idea!!!

Ramsley is Orthodox, and as such, your Patriarch being the Universal Patriarch should have a great leverage on him.

We can fortify his nation, but our troops would observe his borders as to secure peace.

If he really attacks someone, the Orthodox Patriarch can threat excommunication, and he'll fall in line.

If he doesn't he'll be considered a Heretic for rebelling against the OMSK, so we'll have a reason to clamp down on him and maintain peace.

[RogueIce]

Stas Bush (and everyone else, for that matter)
Let us not forget Saddamistan. He so far doesn't care about Libertia, and has seen no need to even comment on the thus-far small scale hostage rescue missions.

But how would he react to a major military operation down there? Remember, his state is the most likely to view such a thing as the other powers (moreso if it winds up just being one of us, which is a course you're dangerously setting the OMSK on) setting up a vassal state and a real threat to himself.

And while you may be able to sit back and say that ultimately he would be destroyed (whether from just the OMSK or the entire world, depending), such a sentiment will be of no comfort to those whose nations are devestated in the meantime. And he more than has the capability to do such a thing. And he has the proximity to do it to at least one nation of any pact (myself, Baal, and quite possibly Tongdijuana for the MESS, Zoria for the OMSK, and a good chunk of the FUN who reside in the Central Sea).

This is beyond the fact that the rest of the international community isn't going to sit by and let one bloc prop up a Libertopian warlord. Even if all of us go in as one, the risk remains. Indeed, it gets far greater in such a scenario.

And to be blunt, as the leader of a nation that would be on the very doorstep of such a conflict, I do not want to see it happen. Regardless of whether or not in the final analysis, the rest of the world is victorious.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

I have an Idea!!!

Ramsley is Orthodox, and as such, your Patriarch being the Universal Patriarch should have a great leverage on him.

We can fortify his nation, but our troops would observe his borders as to secure peace.

If he really attacks someone, the Orthodox Patriarch can threat excommunication, and he'll fall in line.

If he doesn't he'll be considered a Heretic for rebelling against the OMSK, so we'll have a reason to clamp down on him and maintain peace.

Excommunication has its limits though. The question is whether the army under either generals' pay is more loyal to him than to the Ecumenical Patriarch (in which case the Ecumenical Patriarch could in theory excommunicate the whole fucking lot, but they might dare to form their own church and break away),

But it is a possibility.

[PeZook]

Excommunication has its limits though. The question is whether the army under either generals' pay is more loyal to him than to the Ecumenical Patriarch (in which case the Ecumenical Patriarch could in theory excommunicate the whole fucking lot, but they might dare to form their own church and break away),

But it is a possibility.

Plus, he's crazy (I mean, just look at what he's wearing on parades!)

There's one method which was used with some success in history: Place international peacekeepers on the borders between the warlords. No military units go through, one way or another, and they are told to organize their countries.

The problem of deception still remains, of course: All three of those guys have the advantage in this field, because none of us know as much about Libertopia as they do.

And, of course, the peacekeepers would have to remain there God knows how long.

As for just dropping Ramsley, I can't. My Air Force Marshall is an Orthodox and she insisted (in RL!!!) that I support him. Laughing She has a strong lobby Wink

The fuck?

But he's a crazy kook!

[RogueIce]

I have an Idea!!!

Ramsley is Orthodox, and as such, your Patriarch being the Universal Patriarch should have a great leverage on him.

We can fortify his nation, but our troops would observe his borders as to secure peace.

If he really attacks someone, the Orthodox Patriarch can threat excommunication, and he'll fall in line.

If he doesn't he'll be considered a Heretic for rebelling against the OMSK, so we'll have a reason to clamp down on him and maintain peace.

Excommunication has its limits though. The question is whether the army under either generals' pay is more loyal to him than to the Ecumenical Patriarch (in which case the Ecumenical Patriarch could in theory excommunicate the whole fucking lot, but they might dare to form their own church and break away),

But it is a possibility.

The problem here is twofold. The other warlords will see that now, Ramsley has international backing. This could drive them into an attack out of fear. Which then gives the OMSK the perfect pretext to launch their own attack and gain a new continent. Especially as such a scenario is easily predictable. The argument would thus run that they knew that would happen, and so they went in knowing full well their presence would trigger this incident, and their excuse.

The other problem is, as alluded to above, Ramsley and whether or not he can dupe you. Which he could. And even if he doesn't, the obvious concern then becomes similar to the above: how do the rest of us know such a transgression occured, and it is not just the OMSK saying it happened so they can land themselves a new continent?

One bloc backing a Warlord instantly breeds mistrust over their intentions within the other two. Simply handwaving that away is either naive, or supremely arrogant.

[RogueIce]

There's one method which was used with some success in history: Place international peacekeepers on the borders between the warlords. No military units go through, one way or another, and they are told to organize their countries.

The problem of deception still remains, of course: All three of those guys have the advantage in this field, because none of us know as much about Libertopia as they do.

And, of course, the peacekeepers would have to remain there God knows how long.

Which is a problem, as you said. We'd all have to keep them there, for God knows how long. We can't pull them out or we go right back to the original problem, and whether some provocation was real or manufactured so that bloc can make a land-grab.

[K. A. Pital]

I support PeZook's DMZ suggestion.

But we will have to force Sultan (and possibly Skimmer, as Saddamistan impacts his opinion heavly) to the table.

UKB shall work with Alexander, who is so far being also prerared for the OMSK Summit and is taking tours around Omsk.