Is there a pattern to civilizations and nations in history?

[WesFox13]

You know, looking at the civilizations of history, I've noticed a pattern where Civilizations and Nations rise, prosper and then fall, never to be heard from again. I have to ask, Is this able to be applied to our modern day nations? I mean I have a feeling that the USA could collapse. To me it's not a matter of if but When it could fall. Am I just being idiotic or is there some truth to this?

[CmdrWilkens]

Sure its entirely possible but at this poitn I'd bet on the US being more like Rome. We collpase, take the rest of the continent with us, and centuries later when everyone finally digs themselves out of the hellhole we become the basis for the sucessor states occupying the same territory.

[K. A. Pital]

It's possible for a nation to decline in power and be reduced just to one of the nations instead of being a superpower or just a world power, but it's hardly unlikely the US, with it's industrial technology and it's material resource and human resource base, all of which are formidable, be reduced to a Third World shithole.

It can lose it's superpower status, yes, become just one of "great powers", but I doubt it can cease to be a world power alltogether.

[Straha]

You know, looking at the civilizations of history, I've noticed a pattern where Civilizations and Nations rise, prosper and then fall, never to be heard from again. I have to ask, Is this able to be applied to our modern day nations? I mean I have a feeling that the USA could collapse. To me it's not a matter of if but When it could fall. Am I just being idiotic or is there some truth to this?

You are probably the 500,456,731th person to come up with the idea.

You'd be idiotic to think the USA could last forever. Nothing is permanent.


That being said there are patterns in history, loose patterns. The real problem with them is that you can almost never predict when the patterns will strike. Take the idea of "Empires Falling". The Roman Empire fell over four hundred years of decline. Longer if you include the Byzantine Empire in it. The Ottoman Empire fell due to exhaustion and external partition. The Soviet Union fell apart due to a lack of political will to hold it together and severe economic collapse. The British Empire fell apart by its own volition. You can keep going on and on; Macedon, The First Islamic Caliphate, Athens, Egyptians, etc. etc. etc.

The end result is that the vague pattern exists but beyond that you really can do no more than speculate vaguely.

[thejester]

You know, looking at the civilizations of history, I've noticed a pattern where Civilizations and Nations rise, prosper and then fall, never to be heard from again. I have to ask, Is this able to be applied to our modern day nations? I mean I have a feeling that the USA could collapse. To me it's not a matter of if but When it could fall. Am I just being idiotic or is there some truth to this?

I think Stas is probably more correct, though with effects of peak oil...who knows? IMO the power of the US likely to decline in comparison to that of other nations, but I doubt there would be anything like the kind of collapse that saw the end of the Roman Empire. Look at the European nations that dominated world politics a century ago - none wield nearly as much power, yet all are stable political entities.

[Coyote]

I think these days, and in th enear future, what is more likely to happen will be that the society will morph and change dramatically, but th eoverall structure will stay the same-- for example. we'll have an entity called "the United States of America" occupying more or less the same geographical area for generations to come, but the structure of the government, the nature of society, the interactions of the people... will all change so much as to effectively be a totally different people claiming the same heritage.

It is not unheard of-- Rome was a Republic, then became an Empire, and yet still considered the earlier history valid, and later still they moved the capitol to Constantinople and (from their point of view) lived on for centuries later. The USA started out with a capitol in New York, then Philadelphia, and finally Washington DC and was largely a Confederacy for much of its formative years, but it is still considered part of US history. There are many other examples.

A complete and utter collapse is not likely. More likely, we'd see an ancient Egyptian or Asia-style perspective of "eras" or "dynasties" --point beginning point A and ending point Z look nothing alike, but the slow, gradual changes from A to B, then B to C, and on to D... will be more comprehensive.

[CaptainZoidberg]

Sure its entirely possible but at this poitn I'd bet on the US being more like Rome. We collpase, take the rest of the continent with us, and centuries later when everyone finally digs themselves out of the hellhole we become the basis for the sucessor states occupying the same territory.

Rome was still powerful even after the "Fall of Rome", it's just that there was no longer a strong Emperor who took direct military action, but rather a Pope that had vast ideological sway and ability to control the feudal society below him.

As for the US, I think we lack precedent to really say what will happen. Of course, no nation can last forever, but in a world order where the US cannot lose territory (MAD), and the government can easily adapt to changes and dissent (through the democratic system), I find it difficult to imagine a literal end to the United States of America.