June 1st Puerto Rico Primary Thread

Qwerty 42 · Post by **Qwerty 42** » 2008-06-01 03:06pm

Polls just closed on the island. CNN has projected Clinton to take it by a large margin, a low turnout was reported. Clinton is unlikely to take a popular vote lead because of that: as few as 500,000 were expected.

Soontir C'boath · Post by **Soontir C'boath** » 2008-06-02 12:14am

About 385,000 showed up according to CNN with Clinton taking 68% of the vote. This primary was certainly no surprise in how it turned out.

Asst. Asst. Lt. Cmdr. Smi · Post by **Asst. Asst. Lt. Cmdr. Smi** » 2008-06-02 01:30am

Does this mean that Puerto Rico is one of the states that matters?

Invictus ChiKen · Post by **Invictus ChiKen** » 2008-06-02 01:47am

Good how many primaries are left?

CaptainChewbacca · Post by **CaptainChewbacca** » 2008-06-02 01:55am

Invictus ChiKen wrote:Good how many primaries are left?

I think just two, but I can't for the life of me remember which states.

Durandal · Post by **Durandal** » 2008-06-02 01:57am

Montana and South Dakota.

Darth Servo · Post by **Darth Servo** » 2008-06-02 02:18am

CaptainChewbacca wrote:
Invictus ChiKen wrote:Good how many primaries are left?
I think just two, but I can't for the life of me remember which states.

You know, there ARE webpages you can go to for that information. Something tells me cnn.com might be a good place to start.

The Duchess of Zeon · Post by **The Duchess of Zeon** » 2008-06-02 04:18am

Durandal wrote:Montana and South Dakota.

Both of which Obama should win, by the latest polling.

Gerald Tarrant · Post by **Gerald Tarrant** » 2008-06-02 04:56am

Hopefully Senator Obama wins big. Right now the popular vote is fairly evenly divided; which is one of Senator Clinton's remaining arguments for the nomination. Some counts even give her a slight edge in the popular vote Link. A big finish for the Obama campaign would be convincing at the convention.

Isolder74 · Post by **Isolder74** » 2008-06-02 12:53pm

Asst. Asst. Lt. Cmdr. Smi wrote:Does this mean that Puerto Rico is one of the states that matters?

Too bad it's not a State isn't it, huh.

General Zod · Post by **General Zod** » 2008-06-02 12:58pm

Gerald Tarrant wrote:Hopefully Senator Obama wins big. Right now the popular vote is fairly evenly divided; which is one of Senator Clinton's remaining arguments for the nomination. Some counts even give her a slight edge in the popular vote Link. A big finish for the Obama campaign would be convincing at the convention.

It's pretty much her only argument for nomination, considering how often I keep seeing it branded about. As it is her argument for winning the popular vote is also based on math that's fuzzier than my nutsack. The only way she wins in the popular vote is to ignore Michigan's uncommitted votes (or count them as hers), and ignore all of the caucus voting. Which is needless to say pretty screwy.

Patrick Degan · Post by **Patrick Degan** » 2008-06-02 01:23pm

General Zod wrote:The only way she wins in the popular vote is to ignore Michigan's uncommitted votes (or count them as hers), and ignore all of the caucus voting. Which is needless to say pretty screwy.

Well, at this point, so is she.

General Zod · Post by **General Zod** » 2008-06-02 01:31pm

Patrick Degan wrote:
General Zod wrote:The only way she wins in the popular vote is to ignore Michigan's uncommitted votes (or count them as hers), and ignore all of the caucus voting. Which is needless to say pretty screwy.
Well, at this point, so is she.

I'd say that goes without saying.

Post by **Darth Wong** » 2008-06-02 01:45pm

Right now all she's doing is trying to push as many Democrats as she can into the arms of John McCain. Mind you, I'm not so sure this is a conscious plan; from her record, it appears that she's always been Republican Lite anyway, apart from a brief dalliance with universal health care which she promptly abandoned when the health insurance companies came calling with offers of money.

CaptainZoidberg · Post by **CaptainZoidberg** » 2008-06-02 01:51pm

Darth Wong wrote:Right now all she's doing is trying to push as many Democrats as she can into the arms of John McCain. Mind you, I'm not so sure this is a conscious plan; from her record, it appears that she's always been Republican Lite anyway, apart from a brief dalliance with universal health care which she promptly abandoned when the health insurance companies came calling with offers of money.

Also if McCain wins big in 2008, she might have a chance as the nominee in 2012.

My best bet is that it is intentional.

Gerald Tarrant · Post by **Gerald Tarrant** » 2008-06-02 01:58pm

General Zod wrote:
Gerald Tarrant wrote:Hopefully Senator Obama wins big. Right now the popular vote is fairly evenly divided; which is one of Senator Clinton's remaining arguments for the nomination. Some counts even give her a slight edge in the popular vote Link. A big finish for the Obama campaign would be convincing at the convention.
It's pretty much her only argument for nomination, considering how often I keep seeing it branded about. As it is her argument for winning the popular vote is also based on math that's fuzzier than my nutsack. The only way she wins in the popular vote is to ignore Michigan's uncommitted votes (or count them as hers), and ignore all of the caucus voting. Which is needless to say pretty screwy.

Nooo. It's actually pretty straightforward, and unfortunately makes some sense

Code: Select all

                                       Obama                     Clinton
Popular Vote (w/MI
Uncommitted to Obama)**			17,627,421	48.7%	   17,692,976	48.9%				Clinton +65,555	+0.2%

One of the biggest problems here is that the vote totals from the caucuses aren't released. Using the estimated caucus numbers Obama has a slight edge. Real Clear Politics estimates Senator Obama netted 100k votes from his caucus wins Link

*(Iowa, Nevada, Washington & Maine Have Not Released Popular Vote Totals. RealClearPolitics has estimated the popular vote totals for Senator Obama and Clinton in these four states. RCP uses the WA Caucus results from February 9 in this estimate because the Caucuses on February 9 were the “official” contest recognized by the DNC to determine delegates to the Democratic convention. The estimate from these four Caucus states where there are not official popular vote numbers increases Senator Obama’s popular vote margin by 110,224. This number would be about 50,000 less if the Washington primary results from February 19th were used instead of the Washington Caucus results.)

I thought there were better methods for counting: I was fond of just cutting the FL and MI vote totals in half, with uncommitted going to Senator Obama. (That method would have left Senator Obama with a ~200k vote lead IIRC). And maybe someone will come up with a clever method to figure out what percentage of votes are Dittoheads participating in "Operation Chaos". But short of that, I think Senator Clinton is unfortunately making a fairly straightforward case for the popular vote argument. That's why Senator Obama needs to finish strong in Montana and South Dakota. If Senator Obama gets the nomination but loses the popular vote to Senator Clinton it really won't be good for the party, or his general election candidacy.

General Zod · Post by **General Zod** » 2008-06-02 01:58pm

CaptainZoidberg wrote: Also if McCain wins big in 2008, she might have a chance as the nominee in 2012.

My best bet is that it is intentional.

The chances of that happening are slim to none. Not only is she in her 60s, making her health a factor, the way she's handled herself so badly in this election will make anyone reluctant to nominate her for candidacy again. Even then there's no guarantee she'd get the nomination in 2012 considering how poorly she's fared now. That's without even going into her financial problems.

CaptainZoidberg · Post by **CaptainZoidberg** » 2008-06-02 02:13pm

General Zod wrote:
The chances of that happening are slim to none. Not only is she in her 60s, making her health a factor

But then she'll of course be more experienced.

and she'll have lots of other crazy tall tales about her time as Senator.

the way she's handled herself so badly in this election will make anyone reluctant to nominate her for candidacy again. Even then there's no guarantee she'd get the nomination in 2012 considering how poorly she's fared now. That's without even going into her financial problems.

Who else would run in 2012 should McCain win 2008? Richardson? Wesley Clark? There aren't a whole lot of options, and Clinton might be viable.

General Zod · Post by **General Zod** » 2008-06-02 02:19pm

CaptainZoidberg wrote: Who else would run in 2012 should McCain win 2008? Richardson? Wesley Clark? There aren't a whole lot of options, and Clinton might be viable.

They could always get Chelsea to run. It's about as likely as McCain winning this election by anything other than a narrow margin.

Gerald Tarrant · Post by **Gerald Tarrant** » 2008-06-02 02:23pm

CaptainZoidberg wrote: Who else would run in 2012 should McCain win 2008? Richardson? Wesley Clark? There aren't a whole lot of options, and Clinton might be viable.

Senator Jim Webb is a possibility, and a second Obama candidacy wouldn't be impossible (especially since he'll have another term of legislative experience under his belt). Governors always make decent candidates.

For Senator Clinton, the age factor, and the bad will she has generated won't help her in 2012.

Seriously though, 2008 is too early to be thinking of who will run in 2012. There's at least 3 years for potential candidates to distinguish (or embarrass) themselves in governance or legislative roles. Who knows what new names will appear on (or leave) the radar.

Gerald Tarrant · Post by **Gerald Tarrant** » 2008-06-02 02:24pm

General Zod wrote:
CaptainZoidberg wrote: Who else would run in 2012 should McCain win 2008? Richardson? Wesley Clark? There aren't a whole lot of options, and Clinton might be viable.
They could always get Chelsea to run. It's about as likely as McCain winning this election by anything other than a narrow margin.

She won't be legal Presidential Age 'til 2016

Ender · Post by **Ender** » 2008-06-02 06:11pm

Gerald Tarrant wrote: and a second Obama candidacy wouldn't be impossible (especially since he'll have another term of legislative experience under his belt).

I recall an early interview where he said that he and his wife had a deal - he got to run once. After that they would stay in IL politics. Given the obvious stress it puts on a family I can see why she would stipulate it - his kids are still very young. However, that was back before Iowa when he was still considered one of the token opponents to the obvious nominee (just as McCain was to Rudy). Now that he is the man in the spotlight, I wonder if their deal would change if he lost the nomination to backroom politics or McCain pulled a win out of thin air.

chitoryu12 · Post by **chitoryu12** » 2008-06-02 08:20pm

Yay! She gets....half a state. Whoop-de-fucking-do for her.

I normally don't even pay attention to the primaries. I'm just watching this to see her reaction when she bombs.

Qwerty 42 · Post by **Qwerty 42** » 2008-06-02 10:20pm

Gerald Tarrant wrote:
CaptainZoidberg wrote: Who else would run in 2012 should McCain win 2008? Richardson? Wesley Clark? There aren't a whole lot of options, and Clinton might be viable.
Senator Jim Webb is a possibility, and a second Obama candidacy wouldn't be impossible (especially since he'll have another term of legislative experience under his belt). Governors always make decent candidates.

For Senator Clinton, the age factor, and the bad will she has generated won't help her in 2012.

Seriously though, 2008 is too early to be thinking of who will run in 2012. There's at least 3 years for potential candidates to distinguish (or embarrass) themselves in governance or legislative roles. Who knows what new names will appear on (or leave) the radar.

A number of people were leaning on Senator Feingold to run this year, but he snubbed the possibility fairly early before the hype train could really build up. But he'd be a tough candidate to smear, appear from the "lol liberal Feingold" nonsense.

Drooling Iguana · Post by **Drooling Iguana** » 2008-06-02 11:03pm

[quote="CaptainZoidberg"Who else would run in 2012 should McCain win 2008? Richardson? Wesley Clark? There aren't a whole lot of options, and Clinton might be viable.[/quote]
Who'd heard of Obama in 2004?