Obama Competitive in Georgia, Really?

[Lord MJ]

http://www.ajc.com/news/content/news/st ... ab_newstab

The last time a presidential race was competitive in Georgia, the Atlanta Braves were defending world champions and gasoline cost about $1 a gallon.

Now, defying a dozen years of electoral history, Barack Obama — and a number of political pundits and experts — believes Georgia could be in play for a Democrat running for the White House.
Alex Brandon/AP
(ENLARGE)
Barack Obama fills sandbags in Quincy, Ill., Saturday. His backers believe he can take some 'red' states like Georgia.


There are signs aplenty that Georgia could be a real contest when a new president is elected in November. None more illustrative than the following quote:

"I'll be coming back to this great state. It'll be competitive in the general election. I know it's a long time between now and November, but this is going to be a tough campaign, and I'll need every single vote."

Who said that?

Try U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona, the Republican nominee. He made those remarks in a visit to Atlanta in March shortly after securing the GOP nod. That was three months ago and things can, as we've seen, change.

What's the McCain campaign's position now?

"I think the state will be competitive," McCain spokesman Jeff Sadosky said Wednesday. "But, at the same time, we feel very, very good about where we are in the state."

Sadosky is probably right on both counts.

First, there's the history. Democratic challenger Bill Clinton won Georgia in 1992, beating incumbent Republican President George H.W. Bush. But the incumbent Clinton won the White House again in 1996 while losing Georgia by less than 2 percentage points to Republican Bob Dole.

In 2000, Republican George W. Bush took 55 percent to beat Democrat Al Gore and Bush amped up his margin in 2004, dismissing Democrat John Kerry here 58 percent to 41 percent.

Second, there's polling. The most recent Georgia presidential poll, released last week by Rasmussen Reports, shows McCain with a 10-point lead, although that's down from May when Rasmussen found McCain with a 14-point spread. Ominously for the Democrat, however, the poll also found more than 50 percent of Georgia voters had an unfavorable view of Obama, compared to 37 percent for McCain.

The average of all polls taken here since early May puts McCain's lead at about 12 percentage points.

Third, there's just plain common sense. Georgia remains a red state. Republicans control the Governor's Mansion, the state House and Senate, seven of the 13 congressional seats and both U.S. Senate seats. Overcoming that GOP advantage would be a huge undertaking for Obama.

Obama's supporters say the man is up to the challenge.

"In the coming weeks, we will be building our movement for change in Georgia because we believe that Georgia voters deserve to hear what is at stake in this election," Obama spokeswoman Amy Brundage said. Those efforts included training 250 volunteers in Atlanta on Saturday to boost voter registration programs.

Obama backers believe he has the ability to "expand the map," meaning he can compete in states that for the past dozen years or more have been solidly Republican. Obama's campaign announced last week that it will have paid staff in all 50 states, which is unheard of for modern presidential campaigns that typically allocate precious resources only to states where candidates believe they truly have a chance to win.

Obama already has staff working in Georgia. Eight full-time Obama workers have been organizing get-out-the-vote plans and voter-registration rallies. Obama's team also has apparently inquired about television advertising rates in the state, although the campaign has yet to decide whether Georgia warrants spending that kind of money.

McCain's campaign includes its Georgia operation as part of its overall Southeastern strategy, with a headquarters in Tallahassee. He does not yet have paid staff here.

"We are cognizant of the importance of the state and its electoral votes, but at the same time are fairly confident about the race as it's shaping up," said Sadosky, McCain's spokesman.

Georgia has 15 electoral votes. It takes 270 to win the presidency.

For Obama to "expand the map" and make Georgia truly competitive, he has work to do. His bruising primary fight with U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton showed Obama struggles to win rural, blue-collar, white voters. In Georgia, that's an important constituency for any candidate.

Over the past two decades, Democrats in Georgia have believed they needed to win 90 percent of the black vote and about 37 percent of the white vote to win statewide. That assumes African-Americans make up 25 percent of the total electorate casting ballots, as they did in the 2004 presidential election. About 72 percent of all registered black voters cast a ballot that year.

But Obama has changed the math. Since 2004, more than 400,000 Georgians have been added to the voter rolls and about 160,000 of them are African-American, compared to 150,000 whites, according to data from the Georgia Secretary of State.

Enthusiasm for Obama, especially among black voters, has been massive. If African-American turnout exceeds 72 percent, as many believe it could, that would lower the percentage of the white vote Obama needs to win here.

Finally, there is the Bob Barr effect. Barr is the former Republican congressman from Georgia who is now the Libertarian Party candidate for president. A poll by the Atlanta-based media company Insider Advantage in May showed Barr getting 8 percent of the vote in Georgia, compared to 45 percent for McCain and 35 percent for Obama. That was, however, before either Barr or Obama secured their parties' nominations.

Barr is working to raise money and awareness of his campaign to become a credible threat to McCain. Insider Advantage CEO Matt Towery has said Barr's potential share of the vote is enough to make Georgia "competitive."

Some national news and political organizations are also beginning to include Georgia in their list of battleground states.

Real Clear Politics, a Web site that acts as a clearinghouse for national news and polling, has Georgia as one of a handful of Southern states on its battleground list. The others include Virginia, North Carolina, Mississippi, Louisiana and Florida.

Ultimately, it might not become clear for some time if Georgia will be a battleground. Both campaigns will probably spend some money in the next few months but wait until after their national conventions in August and September to decide where to make a final push.

Because Obama is expected to have far more money to spend, his most realistic outcome here might be to force McCain to defend the state, which would pull attention and resources from more competitive states like Pennsylvania and Ohio.

As of the most recent campaign finance reports, filed with the Federal Election Commission in May, Obama had $46.56 million cash on hand, compared to McCain's $21.76 million.

Georgia state Sen. David Adelman (D-Atlanta), a member of Obama's national campaign committee, said the financial advantage cannot be discounted, and should offer Obama electoral advantages not enjoyed by his predecessors.

"Like all political campaigns, the more resources we have, the better chance we will have to expand the general election map," he said. "I think Sen. Obama is a map-changer."

Too bad I'm moving in a couple weeks, could be interesting.

[Mayabird]

First, congrats on escaping from Georgia!

Second, I hadn't heard about all this Bob Barr nuttiness. Seems he jumped on the Libertarian boat a couple years ago and I just now found out. I know he hasn't a snowball's chance of getting elected, but outside of Georgia where he has name recognition, how much (or little) of the vote nationwide could Barr end up getting?

[Glocksman]

First, congrats on escaping from Georgia!

Second, I hadn't heard about all this Bob Barr nuttiness. Seems he jumped on the Libertarian boat a couple years ago and I just now found out. I know he hasn't a snowball's chance of getting elected, but outside of Georgia where he has name recognition, how much (or little) of the vote nationwide could Barr end up getting?

Barr is fairly well known among the hard right wing outside of Georgia because of his work on the Clinton impeachment.
IMHO, he could be McCain's 'Nader' if the election is close.

[Mr Bean]

The issue these polls have is what was had elsewhere.
They don't factor in turnout Yes McCain might have a 10 point lead now, but if even 10% of those people stay home, you can be sure Obama will win the state by 8%-20%. Your talking about someone who managed to bring 90% of the vote in some demographics.

When's the last time you heard of any nominee bringing in 90% of Registered anythings? Typicaly Democrats get 65%-90% of the black vote by default. But how many people turn out? Your talking about Obama who managed to pull some insane numbers in states where he got 88% turnout with 92% of the African American vote... those are insanely good numbers.

If Obama can count on roughly 1 million registered African American voters to vote for him(Of a possible 1.3 mil total) your talking about him only having to win 35% of the white vote in that state. Even if 50% of the White Vote goes to McCain, even if 60% of the White vote goes McCain Obama can still win because of African American turnout.

That changes of course if the white-turnout breaks 60%, which it might but it's been a long time since that's happened. We know in frigging Primaries that Obama been able to get 75% or more turnout of the AA vote.

[CmdrWilkens]

The problem comes down to the Georgia MACHINES. There are no machines to orgnaize voter turnout for the democrats, to drive people to the polls and canvass the hell out of their neighborhoods in the days leading up to the vote. Now Obama is committed to putting ground orgaizations in palce everywhere, which he is definately doing, but Georgia will take at least one more election cycle and a bit more of a de-Baptistizing of the close suburbs to become competitive outside of a turly nationwide landslide. North Carolina could switch (demographic trends are finally starting to favor the dems and the polls have been pretty promising at times, especially the senate polls) but the also have quite a few pockets of solid democratic turnout machines, the same groups which made Obama's win there in the Primary so dramatic. Georgia simply doesn't have any good organizations in palce that can drive him from 10 points behind. Moreover that is 10 points behind before one factors leaners/undecideds/margin of error or the distance to the actual election. So while I think Georgia could be winnable in 2012 for an Obama second term I just don't see it switching this year.

[Illuminatus Primus]

All Obama has to do is win one, or put the South in general in play, force the much weaker, broke, and lower stamina McCain to fight and spend for what his Republican strategists have been counting on for decades as gimmees. Texas was polling only a few points for some, and my friend has a friend who's a precinct captain down there who says it could be won with hard work. Put Richardson on the ballet and play hard for the Hispanics, if McCain loses Texas, he's finished.

[Patrick Degan]

I think Georgia is quite playable. Obama has proven very adaptable in his organisation and you've got a lot of Republican discontent combined with a weak candidate and a potential spoiler sapping away what strength he has.

However, what makes the idea of the South suddenly being turned into a battleground for the GOP particularly nasty for them is not only in terms of the presidential race but the congressional and senate races which will also be up in November. This forces the GOP to have to fight for every inch of ground just to maintain what they've got and this time it's the Democrats who have the advantage in terms of money, organisation, and a dynamic candidate at the top of the ticket. Which means the GOP has to defend everywhere. And as Sun-Tzu pointed out, a force which has to defend everywhere will be weak everywhere.