Where is Osama Bin Laden?

[MKSheppard]

No link, unfortunatley.

------------

Where is Osama Bin Laden? An analysis
Posted on Friday, June 13, 2008 6:40 AM PT
Filed Under: Terrorism
By Robert Windrem, NBC News Producer

It isn't a comforting assessment.

A "Western military analyst" was asked earlier this month about reports that Osama Bin Laden was seen on the slopes of K2, the world's second highest mountain on the Pakistan-China border, or in the Khost Province of Afghanistan.

His response was stunning in both its honesty and its frustration.

"We don't have a clue where he is or even may be," the Western analyst said. "We have had NO credible intelligence on OBL since 2001. All the rest is rumor and rubbish either whipped up by the media or churned out in the power corridors of western capitals."

In fact, say U.S. officials, the last time U.S. operatives saw Osama Bin Laden--other than in his own videos--was in the famous Predator video shot in August 2000 where he is seen walking with a security contingent near his compound at Tarnak Farms in eastern Afghanistan. The Predators had not been armed yet.

The last time the U.S. heard Osama Bin Laden was at the battle for Tora Bora, when an NSA operative overhead him giving orders on a frequency not normally monitored and not recorded. There were some initial concerns about the identification but the agency later learned from other sources and materials that indeed that had been him.

But that unfortunately is it.

There have been suggestions Bin Laden was wounded, and some speculation he has died. One piece of evidence that suggested he had been hurt was the long interval between videotaped messages from him, but those were a long time ago. A tape released around Christmas 2001--and thus after the Tora Bora battle--was later determined (through time references in the tape) to have been made about November 17, 2001. After that, there were no contemporaneous videos until the October 29, 2004, tape, the infamous one released just before the U.S. presidential election. (Don't be surprised if he does that again; al-Qaida is very cognizant of election dates.)

Still, the US is confident about some aspects of Bin Laden's life on the run, drawn from interrogations of other high value targets as well as notebooks and computer hard drives captured with al Qaeda officials or found after they were killed.

Where does he live?
Not in caves. The general belief, gleaned from interrogations of his compatriots, is that Bin Laden lives in one of the many mud-walled compounds that can be found along the border with Pakistan and Afghanistan. If you fly in a chopper, you will see them--large multi-walled buildings that are continually expanded. The largest ones are those of the clan leaders.

How often does he move?

Bin Laden is NOT believed to move that often, either. He does not normally change locations every night or even very frequently. He is believed to stay long periods of time--months in some instances--in one place. In some cases, al-Qaida security personnel have married into local tribes and clans, making them part of the extended family and giving Bin Laden and others additional protection. When he does move, it is not with a large convoy of trucks. (He used to be driven around in a white Mitsubishi Pajero, accompanied by white Toyota Tundras, but those days are long gone.) The latest information--and it is not current--is that he moves on motorbikes. One reason is that cars and trucks can be spotted by the roving "J-Stars" aircraft. Motorbikes cannot be as easily seen. According to Pakistani officials, Bin Laden and other al-Qaida officials move mostly late at night. In the hours after the sunset prayers, they will move into a village and take over a guesthouse in a large compound.

How is his health?

As for his health, he is 50 years old, turning 51 (according to the best estimates) in July. He does NOT have kidney failure and does NOT need dialysis. He has had kidney stones. He is also seen as somewhat of a hypochondriac. He is missing a toe, lost in a battle against the Soviets. He reportedly has an enlarged heart and chronically low blood pressure, which he treats with drugs. There is even some dispute over his height. Is he tall? Yes. Is he 6'5"? Maybe not. As one intelligence official told me, "If you see a guy who is 6'4" tall and looks like him, kill him."

Who are his bodyguards?

His security personnel are directed by his brother-in-law and believed to include Chechen and Uzbeks as well as Arabs. And yes, there are reports that if he is about to be captured, his bodyguards have orders to "martyr" him. However, the default position of U.S. forces has always been to kill him, not capture him. Don't expect heroic efforts to save him, as in the case of Abu Musab al Zarqawi. The same holds true for Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri, Bin Laden's deputy. The U.S. has Bin Laden's DNA, which the Saudis provided. It's always helpful when you have 52 siblings.

How important is he now?

The U.S. believes that OBL is more of a titular, inspirational leader, with Zawahiri as CEO and the leading philosopher. There has been some tension, the U.S. believes, between their Saudi and Egyptian underlings. The Egyptians are in charge, but virtually every counter-terrorism official we talk to notes that North Africans, particularly Libyans, are rising within what they call al-Qaida Central.

Do Bin Laden and Zawahiri travel together?

OBL and Zawahiri have not traveled together since mid 2003, for security reasons. Although the U.S. does not have a clue where OBL is, they have been able to track and target Zawahiri multiple times, by his own accounts. The most recent targeting was January 13, 2006, in Damodola in Pakistan. The U.S. fired volleys of Hellfire missiles at two guesthouses, but Zawahiri had already left. U.S. and Pakistani officials have told us that they believe he was tipped off. Zawahiri himself has admitted he was there.

Who is the next most important leader?

The U.S. has deliberately put a high priority on taking out al-Qaida's Number Threes, killing or capturing five of them since September 11. They are the directors of international operations, the men who would organize attacks against the United States and United Kingdom. The big prize in each takedown are the computer hard drives, phonebooks and notebooks. To maintain operational security, al-Qaida requires that new courier and computer networks be formed. This obviously slows down planning. Moreover, the U.S. believes such takedowns are one of the few things that can push OBL's security team to pick up and move. The hope is that U.S. spy planes see some of that movement.

Al Qaida's current No. 3 is Sayed Sheikh, an Egyptian confidante of Zawahari.

[Questor]

Thanks for posting that, it answers some questions I have.

One question I do have: If OBL hasn't been seen since 2000, could the current tapes be the video equivalent of photoshops? I'm sure that the NSA/CIA/DOD have ways of telling, but would they tell us? (I'm not sure if *I* would tell, were I them. It might give away to much about our techniques.)

[weemadando]

In fact, say U.S. officials, the last time U.S. operatives saw Osama Bin Laden--other than in his own videos--was in the famous Predator video shot in August 2000 where he is seen walking with a security contingent near his compound at Tarnak Farms in eastern Afghanistan. The Predators had not been armed yet.

I thought the last sighting was the SAS patrol around the start of the Anaconda campaign who had eyes on and were told not to bag him as it needed to be an American unit that did it. And thus, he moved on through their area and he was long gone before the US forces arrived. Or was that before the Predator incident.

[Questor]

OK, change the year from 2000 to Tora Bora. I've got to check posts better before I hit submit.

[MKSheppard]

I thought the last sighting was the SAS patrol around the start of the Anaconda campaign who had eyes on and were told not to bag him as it needed to be an American unit that did it. And thus, he moved on through their area and he was long gone before the US forces arrived. Or was that before the Predator incident.

I'm really dubious of that claim, it sounds like something got inflated out of proportion to become a tall tale, because there's plenty of ways to reward non-american units for bagging Osama, like giving them a PCU, giving everyone a Bronze Star, etc etc

[Darth Fanboy]

Found the link if anyone's interested.

[weemadando]

I thought the last sighting was the SAS patrol around the start of the Anaconda campaign who had eyes on and were told not to bag him as it needed to be an American unit that did it. And thus, he moved on through their area and he was long gone before the US forces arrived. Or was that before the Predator incident.

I'm really dubious of that claim, it sounds like something got inflated out of proportion to become a tall tale, because there's plenty of ways to reward non-american units for bagging Osama, like giving them a PCU, giving everyone a Bronze Star, etc etc

My understanding was that it was still early enough in the piece that the raging hard-on the administration had for having some good ole boys bagging Bin Laden over-rode the realities of the situation.

[Shroom Man 777]

Osama bin Laden's not making much videos since he's pretty busy. It's not easy leading the Taliban to victory in A-stan and making daring and triumphant raids to liberate their imprisoned comrades, you know. The guy's got no spare time to post youtube videos.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

I doubt it matters whether he's alive or not. He has grown beyond a mere symbol, but something that actually festers in just about anyone's heart, for different reasons.

[Zixinus]

The reason why he's alive is because the politicians don't really want him dead. He is a symbol that makes people scared in their own favour. I am looking at you, Bush Administration!ű

If the USA really would have wanted Osama dead, he would be.

[Surlethe]

If the USA really would have wanted Osama dead, he would be.

Really? Why do you say that?

[Lonestar]

If the USA really would have wanted Osama dead, he would be.

The US government couldn't find Eric Rudolph after five years of hiding inside the USA, in an area of the country smaller than where Osama is probably hiding.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

If the USA really would have wanted Osama dead, he would be.

The US government couldn't find Eric Rudolph after five years of hiding inside the USA, in an area of the country smaller than where Osama is probably hiding.

It's possible to walk in a straight line north-northeast along the Afghan-Pakistan border, and in the western regions of Pakistan and northern regions, or more precisely, from Taxkorgan in China to the Indian Ocean coast in Baluchistan, a distance of 1,200 miles (1,920km, approx), while crossing only four roads, none of which are paved.

[Dark Hellion]

President Bush, like most ignorant American's severely underestimated the ability of a determined man to hide. One need only look at the inabilities of Federal Law enforcement to find fugitives within the U.S. itself, and you can easily extrapolate how hard it is to find a man in a third/fourth world nation where the populace is actively hostile to attempts at a search.

Most people don't like to admit that the U.S. isn't omnipotent, most especially the President, but over the last couple of years we have seen this disconnect become readily apparent.

[Sea Skimmer]

I thought the last sighting was the SAS patrol around the start of the Anaconda campaign who had eyes on and were told not to bag him as it needed to be an American unit that did it. And thus, he moved on through their area and he was long gone before the US forces arrived. Or was that before the Predator incident.

I’ve never heard of such an absurd tale, and it sounds exactly like retarded SAS internetwank to me, especially since in the end it turned out that almost all hostile forces in the Anaconda area of operations were Talaban, with only a very minimal A-Q presence. Even if such an absurd restriction existed, they would have just shot him anyway, had a green beret team airlifted in to take photos and the glory, and then all been sworn to secrecy.

[Lonestar]

I’ve never heard of such an absurd tale, and it sounds exactly like retarded SAS internetwank to me, especially since in the end it turned out that almost all hostile forces in the Anaconda area of operations were Talaban, with only a very minimal A-Q presence. Even if such an absurd restriction existed, they would have just shot him anyway, had a green beret team airlifted in to take photos and the glory, and then all been sworn to secrecy.

Similiar to when the Anzio VBSS team took that that freighter carrying those Scuds to Yemen, but the head of CTF-150 at the time was a Spanish Admiral so he staged a video of Spanish "special forces" roping down...the ship's crew was already zip-tied and being guarded by USN sailors.

[weemadando]

I thought the last sighting was the SAS patrol around the start of the Anaconda campaign who had eyes on and were told not to bag him as it needed to be an American unit that did it. And thus, he moved on through their area and he was long gone before the US forces arrived. Or was that before the Predator incident.

I’ve never heard of such an absurd tale, and it sounds exactly like retarded SAS internetwank to me, especially since in the end it turned out that almost all hostile forces in the Anaconda area of operations were Talaban, with only a very minimal A-Q presence. Even if such an absurd restriction existed, they would have just shot him anyway, had a green beret team airlifted in to take photos and the glory, and then all been sworn to secrecy.

Sadly not interwank, I finally found where I'd read ti....

p226

The Al'Qaeda leader slipped through the allied lines and across the border into Pakistan in the second week of December. He could have been stopped. A combined force of SAS and SBS commandos tracked him down and was just twenty minutes behind him but they were then pulled off to allow US troops to go in for the kill. It took several hours for the US special operations team to get there, by which time Bin Laden had escaped.

Not entirely certain of the provenance of the info, but the attached endnote relates to "From Buck Private to Chief of SOCOM" National Defence, 1 Feb 2004 and "Jennifer Kibbe, The Rise of the Shadow Warriors", Foreign Affairs, March/April 2004.

[MKSheppard]

Sadly not interwank, I finally found where I'd read ti....

Not everything in a book is real -- do I have to point out to you the numerous books released recently about the USS Scorpion, claiming a Soviet sub sank it?

[Zixinus]

Still, this is a single man and the world's most powerful nation backed up with the most powerful military alliance in the world. If the USA really wanted to kill the man and kick the nuts of his terrorists group, it would. But that's not what is really going on.

[Tanasinn]

Do you have any...uh, evidence for this claim?

[SirNitram]

Do you have any...uh, evidence for this claim?

Wandering off to play in Iraq instead of finishing the job?

[frogcurry]

It'd be interesting to see how long he lasted if you re-deployed every american soldier in Iraq to southern Afghanistan. The problem here seems to be more a lack of resources and effort preventing us kicking in every door in the border territories till they find him, rather than a fundamental inability to do so. Hunting successfully for a human being with little flying robots is still sci-fi for about a decade or so.

[weemadando]

Sadly not interwank, I finally found where I'd read ti....

Not everything in a book is real -- do I have to point out to you the numerous books released recently about the USS Scorpion, claiming a Soviet sub sank it?

Hey, I did say in the post that I wasn't sure of the provenance of the info, but given all the other shit that I've seen, heard and read on how fucking badly mismanaged the campaign in Afghanistan was initially I wouldn't be at all surprised if it were true.

[R.O.A]

If the USA really would have wanted Osama dead, he would be.

Really? Why do you say that?

There are some who believe that the United States actually know where Osama Bin Laden and other fugitives are but do not wish to or cannot act to stop them.

Its sort of like a real life version of Hunting Party, a film which was loosely based on the truth.

[loomer]

Osama is probably hiding somewhere really funny. Like two blocks away from the White House. Or under Bush's bed.

Or maybe he's hiding out on a hidden island with a doom fortress and tropical beaches.

"Hey Osama, do you want to nuke the infidels today?"
"No, not today. I have to work on my tan, and then there's the beach volleyball tournament."