Science: Fuck yeah (Oil 2.0)

[The Duchess of Zeon]

We can make corrections and compensations in the overall standard of living, by simply moving into the city cores. You're basing everything off oil and that doesn't accurately model the actual standard of living at all, because losses in oil production can be offset by moving closer to your place of work and an urban core with extensive resources still available.

Fossil fuels, not oil, although oil is the most important. Natural gas and coal are issues too, as I've previously stated. If you think living standards can't be affected by those, then think again. A massive nuclear build is all that could get around that.

We're not going to run out of coal for substantial lengths of time, and production peaking will not be nearly as urgent an issue when production of petroleum has already peaked, forcing us to take such matters seriously. We'll have plenty of coal left (It's also easier to extract) to fuel mass conversion.

Granted, as I've said before, that's America. The UK may well be donkey-fucked.

[Master of Ossus]

I'll go one better... well, three actually.

The first link provides a single cryptic line with no empirical support, and then calls for a mere $10 million/year to explore the impending disaster (which from the tone of the writing and the rest of the article they're not even worried about). None of the other three links work, but assuming that the quotations you pulled from them are accurate I am unimpressed by their findings. I especially love the statement that the American anthracite reserves are vanishingly small compared to the English ones, which you seem to cite in support of a lack of coal left in the world, despite the fact that the American anthracite reserves constitute a spectacular energy resource even after being mined for well over a century (much of which at a far greater rate than they are being used, today).

The only source that you quote which even attempts to quantify the alleged end of cheap coal seems to be concerned with production trends, rather than with physical reserves (for instance, noting increased Chinese use of nuclear power), but moreover does not recognize the potential for additional production facilities to be brought online. As I have said before, the Stone Age did not end because the world ran out of rocks. Coal has simply been outcompeted by oil to such a degree that only the absolute most inexpensive coal can be economical in comparison to oil--it has nothing to do with the physical quantity that is left in the ground, or even the physical quantity that is recovered.

[Admiral Valdemar]

We're not going to run out of coal for substantial lengths of time, and production peaking will not be nearly as urgent an issue when production of petroleum has already peaked, forcing us to take such matters seriously. We'll have plenty of coal left (It's also easier to extract) to fuel mass conversion.

Granted, as I've said before, that's America. The UK may well be donkey-fucked.

I'd hardly call less than a century at present rates all that much time when you need to replace that infrastructure ASAP and deal with your horribly poor power grid. The UK is at least next door to the largest NG and conventional oil deposits, it just means spending more money getting it and we can see that trillions being thrown away by the US today right now hasn't ended the thirst.

The first link provides a single cryptic line with no empirical support, and then calls for a mere $10 million/year to explore the impending disaster (which from the tone of the writing and the rest of the article they're not even worried about).

Aside from the hardly cryptic remark and the debunking of the "We have centuries of coal!" bullshit, yes, hardly anything.

None of the other three links work, but assuming that the quotations you pulled from them are accurate I am unimpressed by their findings. I especially love the statement that the American anthracite reserves are vanishingly small compared to the English ones, which you seem to cite in support of a lack of coal left in the world, despite the fact that the American anthracite reserves constitute a spectacular energy resource even after being mined for well over a century (much of which at a far greater rate than they are being used, today).

The only source that you quote which even attempts to quantify the alleged end of cheap coal seems to be concerned with production trends, rather than with physical reserves (for instance, noting increased Chinese use of nuclear power), but moreover does not recognize the potential for additional production facilities to be brought online. As I have said before, the Stone Age did not end because the world ran out of rocks. Coal has simply been outcompeted by oil to such a degree that only the absolute most inexpensive coal can be economical in comparison to oil--it has nothing to do with the physical quantity that is left in the ground, or even the physical quantity that is recovered.

I cannot do anything about EU and US servers being inundated. They were working perfectly fine when posted.

Additional production which no OECD nation is doing anywhere near fast enough, you mean? If the US was so confident of this resource, you'd be helping the Chinese out a lot more with their incredible growth. As I repeatedly say, it's production rates, not reserves that are key here. China is way over their national limit and needs to import, which is not easy with coal, as they have found out.

In any case, the more definitive report on this matter is the EWG one published last year. The myth that we have tonnes of coal to rely on and fall back on after oil needs to be axed here and now.

But even if wrong, using coal means you're just substituting one catastrophe for another: runaway climate change. Choose your poison.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

I'd hardly call less than a century at present rates all that much time when you need to replace that infrastructure ASAP and deal with your horribly poor power grid. The UK is at least next door to the largest NG and conventional oil deposits, it just means spending more money getting it and we can see that trillions being thrown away by the US today right now hasn't ended the thirst.

We have enough coal for 200 years or more. This has been established countless times, and even major accelerations in consumption will not change that. Your papers tend to focus on high-grade coal, which is a bit disingenuous, as even the reduced energy yield from low-grade coal is compensated for by the fact that open-pit mining is considerably easier than the deep-shaft mining required to recover most anthracite.


Also, you completely ignore the fact that though refining oil shale into oil may be pointless, we can burn the stuff, effectively giving us larger coal reserves.

[Admiral Valdemar]

We have enough coal for 200 years or more. This has been established countless times, and even major accelerations in consumption will not change that. Your papers tend to focus on high-grade coal, which is a bit disingenuous, as even the reduced energy yield from low-grade coal is compensated for by the fact that open-pit mining is considerably easier than the deep-shaft mining required to recover most anthracite.

No, they don't. All coal types are looked into and it is well established that expecting coal to last anywhere near centuries with a stable economy is foolhardy. The US peaked in energy production for coal years ago. What's the point in claiming you have so many years of coal that is next to worthless to extract?

Also, you completely ignore the fact that though refining oil shale into oil may be pointless, we can burn the stuff, effectively giving us larger coal reserves.

I sure hope you find carbon neutral oil shale then, or are you, yet again, ignoring this little thing called climate change?

[Master of Ossus]

No, they don't. All coal types are looked into and it is well established that expecting coal to last anywhere near centuries with a stable economy is foolhardy. The US peaked in energy production for coal years ago. What's the point in claiming you have so many years of coal that is next to worthless to extract?

The US peaked in energy production for coal in the 1920's. I tend to be unimpressed by claims that we're running out of coal imminently because our production has dropped off continually only because coal has been massively outcompeted by oil since then--it's not because we've run out of supply, but because demand has dropped off so precipitously.

[Galvatron]

Valdemar, do you foresee the economy getting so bad that luxuries like video games (e.g. Resident Evil are no longer being made because everyone is too broke to buy them?

[The Duchess of Zeon]

No, they don't. All coal types are looked into and it is well established that expecting coal to last anywhere near centuries with a stable economy is foolhardy. The US peaked in energy production for coal years ago. What's the point in claiming you have so many years of coal that is next to worthless to extract?

Again, that peak was not due to a maximum of resources being found, but rather reduced demand. Comparing coal and oil is bankrupt in that regard.

I sure hope you find carbon neutral oil shale then, or are you, yet again, ignoring this little thing called climate change?

Do we have a fucking choice, you damned nihilist? Do you want humanity to improve and escape from this rock, or are you just partying it up until you can kill yourself with a shot of sodium pentathenol? If the planet's atmosphere goes crazy, then we'll just have to adapt to that and make systematic preparations for the surviving of the human population and human technological achievement in underground arcologies.

But you've already given up on the future, preferring to spend your money on a PS3 instead of bothering to work toward your own survival and prosperity in the future and that of your ancestors. What you lack is moral courage... The moral courage to do whatever is necessary to preserve our civilization. You're just waiting to die, and that attitude suffuses everything you type with your immature, pathetic, self-absorbed and childish nihilism, an attitude which was never more apparent than in the "my girlfriend wants to be sterilized" thread that really, I am afraid, changed my opinion of you for the worse. You cherry pick only the very worst of the reports and constantly assume the worst from them, to where the point comes that you sound like you expect the total extinction of humanity within 200 years. And you think there's nothing to do about it, so we should all lay back and play Resident Evil on the couch.

Peak Oil threads have become less and less about peak oil and more and more about your own childish neuroses. Instead of constructively making proposals on how to preserve the continuation of human achievement (at the cost of the material prosperity of individuals, as I've proposed), you simply revel in the glee of telling people that they're all doomed, like a corner street-preacher screaming to the masses that they're going to burn in Hell.

And don't you dare try to throw this back on me by claiming I'm ignoring the problem, because I think I've made it very clear that I'm fucking not ignoring the problem, and take it in some respects more seriously than you. After all, I'm trying to preserve the important bits of humanity with my proposals, however brutal or depressing they may be. You just get off from pronouncing continuous doom without any productive alternatives being proposed, complain about how it's all to late, and ignore that ANYTHING is better than NOTHING. I fully expect that when you no longer have power for your fucking PS3 you're going to kill yourself, instead of working for the continued survival and achievement of the human race, because at heart you just don't care about anyone but yourself.

[Rye]

Valdemar, do you foresee the economy getting so bad that luxuries like video games (e.g. Resident Evil are no longer being made because everyone is too broke to buy them?

I doubt it. At worst, we'd just resort to selling preowned titles.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

Valdemar, do you foresee the economy getting so bad that luxuries like video games (e.g. Resident Evil 8) are no longer being made because everyone is too broke to buy them?

A lack of video games? Imagine a future where the electricity is shut off to your house Monday through Friday, 8 AM to 6 PM to conserve energy for vital industrial activities, and you're getting more like what it's going to be like.

[Admiral Valdemar]

Valdemar, do you foresee the economy getting so bad that luxuries like video games (e.g. Resident Evil are no longer being made because everyone is too broke to buy them?

Not unless society collapses, which I'm kind of hoping is a non-event, despite the below attack.

Again, that peak was not due to a maximum of resources being found, but rather reduced demand. Comparing coal and oil is bankrupt in that regard.

Uh, no. The US has peaked in coal energy. Period. Demand isn't going to put more coal in the ground, but whether we have enough coal for ten years or ten hundred is not my real concern.

Do we have a fucking choice, you damned nihilist? Do you want humanity to improve and escape from this rock, or are you just partying it up until you can kill yourself with a shot of sodium pentathenol? If the planet's atmosphere goes crazy, then we'll just have to adapt to that and make systematic preparations for the surviving of the human population and human technological achievement in underground arcologies.

But you've already given up on the future, preferring to spend your money on a PS3 instead of bothering to work toward your own survival and prosperity in the future and that of your ancestors. What you lack is moral courage... The moral courage to do whatever is necessary to preserve our civilization. You're just waiting to die, and that attitude suffuses everything you type with your immature, pathetic, self-absorbed and childish nihilism, an attitude which was never more apparent than in the "my girlfriend wants to be sterilized" thread that really, I am afraid, changed my opinion of you for the worse. You cherry pick only the very worst of the reports and constantly assume the worst from them, to where the point comes that you sound like you expect the total extinction of humanity within 200 years. And you think there's nothing to do about it, so we should all lay back and play Resident Evil on the couch.

Peak Oil threads have become less and less about peak oil and more and more about your own childish neuroses. Instead of constructively making proposals on how to preserve the continuation of human achievement (at the cost of the material prosperity of individuals, as I've proposed), you simply revel in the glee of telling people that they're all doomed, like a corner street-preacher screaming to the masses that they're going to burn in Hell.

And don't you dare try to throw this back on me by claiming I'm ignoring the problem, because I think I've made it very clear that I'm fucking not ignoring the problem, and take it in some respects more seriously than you. After all, I'm trying to preserve the important bits of humanity with my proposals, however brutal or depressing they may be. You just get off from pronouncing continuous doom without any productive alternatives being proposed, complain about how it's all to late, and ignore that ANYTHING is better than NOTHING. I fully expect that when you no longer have power for your fucking PS3 you're going to kill yourself, instead of working for the continued survival and achievement of the human race, because at heart you just don't care about anyone but yourself.

Being lectured about nihilism by the card carrying Stalinist. Somebody pinch me.

Yes, please do keep dwelling on that one, moderately expensive leisure purchase I made in the last four years. I'm sure I should take a leaf out of your book instead and go on a road trip. Then, with a clear head, we can get back to forming the gulags, the breadlines and making sure the speciesperseveres through a chaotic environment as we dig up and burn every last scrap of combustible material for the sake of progress. Because, dammit, we don't need to have fun or enjoyment in our lives so long as we stick the finger up at the universe and grasp on for dear life, no matter what.

Or, maybe, get a fucking clue and stop with the Freudian psychoanalysis bullshit too. I have repeatedly gone on about the total lack of anything I can do to deal with the real crisis should it devolve into something not even the worst peak oilists, sorry, nihilists could think of. In case you hadn't guess, I can't afford the likes of having a nice big garden, relying on PV and wind turbines and having a job and general life that doesn't require a lot of these precious hydrocarbons. And anyway, it's too late to go with that survivalist bullshit, which would never work anyway so long as other humans existed to keep you perpetually on your toes. I'd rather bite the bullet before going into that nightmare, thanks.

The nihilist part is still pretty funny. It must be why I work for one of the most successful contract research organisations on Earth producing life saving drugs, better yielding plants and more effective pesticides for the glorious species to use in the pursuit for dominion over nature. I guess when my job entails making your life that much more comfortable every day, I can perhaps catch a fucking break by getting a SINGLE games console and playing on it before hitting the hay, yes?

No matter. I'm just a horrible person who wants everyone and their disgusting brats to die, preferably very slowly and on video so I can replay the imagery over and over and masturbate furiously to it.

So sorry that your one alternative - burning unprocessed road surface - isn't actually a good idea. Oh noes, how annoying to point out holes in that plan too. We can't do without energy, because then how will we play Resident Evil, but we also can't burn shit because it will accelerate climate change. I guess there can be no third option (other than pentobarbiturate OD, something that is quite painless given the number of necropsies I've seen involving it. I'll go get the needles).

"What about hydrogen, Valdemar?"

"Terribly expensive, needs a massive overhaul of our energy infrastructure."

"How about bio-fuels?"

"Causes food prices to increase and poorer nations to go without food."

"Why not nuclear then?"

"Lobbyists and NIMBYs get in the way; too much capital to put up front."

"God, Valdemar, you're a fucking nihilist. Why don't you go clobber yourself to death with your fashionable gaming goods, you pessimistic sod, you."

[Mr Bean]

A lack of video games? Imagine a future where the electricity is shut off to your house Monday through Friday, 8 AM to 6 PM to conserve energy for vital industrial activities, and you're getting more like what it's going to be like.

On the plus side, bike power generators will get in vouge, you only need around 500 watts to power your avaerage TV and 360 or monitor and PC. So geeks everywhere will lose weight as they are forced to "bike for warcraft" and sending an equivalent amount of time on the Bike to power their gadgets as they would on the computer.

Unless they live down south where they can hire mexicans to bike for them.
I'm sooo damn politically incorrect right now.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

Uh, no. The US has peaked in coal energy. Period. Demand isn't going to put more coal in the ground, but whether we have enough coal for ten years or ten hundred is not my real concern.

Link? To a scientific report stating that we have absolutely removed more coal-energy from the ground that remains. Provide it immediately.

Being lectured about nihilism by the card carrying Stalinist. Somebody pinch me.

Yes, please do keep dwelling on that one, moderately expensive leisure purchase I made in the last four years. I'm sure I should take a leaf out of your book instead and go on a road trip. Then, with a clear head, we can get back to forming the gulags, the breadlines and making sure the speciesperseveres through a chaotic environment as we dig up and burn every last scrap of combustible material for the sake of progress. Because, dammit, we don't need to have fun or enjoyment in our lives so long as we stick the finger up at the universe and grasp on for dear life, no matter what.

Fun and enjoyment are in fact secondary to the survival of the species, yes, no matter what, though I can't convince you of that, so I wish you'd just get it over with and kill yourself.

Or, maybe, get a fucking clue and stop with the Freudian psychoanalysis bullshit too. I have repeatedly gone on about the total lack of anything I can do to deal with the real crisis should it devolve into something not even the worst peak oilists, sorry, nihilists could think of. In case you hadn't guess, I can't afford the likes of having a nice big garden, relying on PV and wind turbines and having a job and general life that doesn't require a lot of these precious hydrocarbons. And anyway, it's too late to go with that survivalist bullshit, which would never work anyway so long as other humans existed to keep you perpetually on your toes. I'd rather bite the bullet before going into that nightmare, thanks.

Then do so, certainly. I'm not stopping you. I, on the other hand, intend to educate myself into the useful position of nuclear engineer, as I am doing right now, and contribute positively and meaningfully toward our future. You are welcome to go the fuck to Hell instead if you want to.

The nihilist part is still pretty funny. It must be why I work for one of the most successful contract research organisations on Earth producing life saving drugs, better yielding plants and more effective pesticides for the glorious species to use in the pursuit for dominion over nature. I guess when my job entails making your life that much more comfortable every day, I can perhaps catch a fucking break by getting a SINGLE games console and playing on it before hitting the hay, yes?

Not if you want to spread continuous nihilistic ravings across this board which has POISONED THE ISSUE FOR SERIOUS DISCUSSION and made it a laughingstock!

No matter. I'm just a horrible person who wants everyone and their disgusting brats to die, preferably very slowly and on video so I can replay the imagery over and over and masturbate furiously to it.

"What about hydrogen, Valdemar?"

"Terribly expensive, needs a massive overhaul of our energy infrastructure."

"How about bio-fuels?"

"Causes food prices to increase and poorer nations to go without food."

"Why not nuclear then?"

"Lobbyists and NIMBYs get in the way; too much capital to put up front."

"God, Valdemar, you're a fucking nihilist. Why don't you go clobber yourself to death with your fashionable gaming goods, you pessimistic sod, you."

You've actually just proved my point for me. Since, you know, you could be working to change those opinions that people have, instead of screaming about doom. Or, since I'm apparently a Stalinist now, you could join one of my party cadres which are waiting all over the western world to spring up and institute a totalitarian police for our own good.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

P.S. that road trip used 12 gallons of gas and is the first luxury expenditure I've had in 1.75 years, fullstop. I haven't even bought a book in that long, let alone a DVD or a CD, just to make it clear what I consider luxuries. Also there were two people on that trip, sharing the same car, so it breaks down to 6 gallons per person.

[Galvatron]

Imagine a future where the electricity is shut off to your house Monday through Friday, 8 AM to 6 PM to conserve energy for vital industrial activities, and you're getting more like what it's going to be like.

I dont want to imagine that. It sounds depressing.

[Singular Intellect]

Imagine a future where the electricity is shut off to your house Monday through Friday, 8 AM to 6 PM to conserve energy for vital industrial activities, and you're getting more like what it's going to be like.

I dont want to imagine that. It sounds depressing.

That's because we're spoiled brats in terms of energy consumption. People in the past lived in homes without electricty and without the use of cars, and they got by just fine.

[Rye]

Imagine a future where the electricity is shut off to your house Monday through Friday, 8 AM to 6 PM to conserve energy for vital industrial activities, and you're getting more like what it's going to be like.

I dont want to imagine that. It sounds depressing.

It also sounds like bollocks to me. There are already a few houses with little wind turbines and solar panels on to supplement their energy needs. Any extra energy they make, they sell back to the national grid. In fact, IIRC, there's whole islands in the hebrides and the irish sea run on single turbines. Plus we've started on the track to building the next generation of nuke power and more renewables around the place, since as an island we're pretty well stationed for wind, tidal and wave power. While we may have to ration electricity at some point (assuming the worst), the reality seems much less grim than "no energy for residential zones inside standard work times!!".

[Singular Intellect]

Imagine a future where the electricity is shut off to your house Monday through Friday, 8 AM to 6 PM to conserve energy for vital industrial activities, and you're getting more like what it's going to be like.

I dont want to imagine that. It sounds depressing.

It also sounds like bollocks to me. There are already a few houses with little wind turbines and solar panels on to supplement their energy needs. Any extra energy they make, they sell back to the national grid. In fact, IIRC, there's whole islands in the hebrides and the irish sea run on single turbines. Plus we've started on the track to building the next generation of nuke power and more renewables around the place, since as an island we're pretty well stationed for wind, tidal and wave power. While we may have to ration electricity at some point (assuming the worst), the reality seems much less grim than "no energy for residential zones inside standard work times!!".

It strikes me that you don't seem to grasp just how incredibly vast the energy consumption we enjoy depends entirely upon oil.

[Erik von Nein]

It strikes me that you don't seem to grasp just how incredibly vast the energy consumption we enjoy depends entirely upon oil.

Do you even know how much electricity is generated via oil in western nations?

[Rye]

It strikes me that you don't seem to grasp just how incredibly vast the energy consumption we enjoy depends entirely upon oil.

What makes you think that? Of course oil is the lifeblood of everything, however, building a load more nukes and supplementing power needs in small, consumer-graspable ways, like buying mini turbines and solar panels for houses will considerably nerf the impact of a changeover when oil as we know it becomes non-viable. The developing and third world will take the brunt first, and I would also expect some thinning of the general population due to the emergence of some new disease like the spanish flu. Life in general will hopefully change to be less wasteful, but there's no reason to think it'll be totally miserable or won't resemble modern life.

[SirNitram]

It strikes me that you don't seem to grasp just how incredibly vast the energy consumption we enjoy depends entirely upon oil.

Do you even know how much electricity is generated via oil in western nations?

A fraction of the grid, dwarfed by King Coal and sometimes even by Nuclear and Hydro/Geo. The issues of where the electric will be needed post-peak are based on other factors.

[Singular Intellect]

I see that I fucked up implying oil was directly powering general electricity, as opposed to merely supporting the infrstructure that generates it.

My bad, I stand corrected.

[CaptainZoidberg]

A lack of video games? Imagine a future where the electricity is shut off to your house Monday through Friday, 8 AM to 6 PM to conserve energy for vital industrial activities, and you're getting more like what it's going to be like.

If it was that bad most suburban families would just install solar panels to provide a small amount of energy to boil water / run PS3.

The median American household income is about 50k / year, and a 200 watt solar panel costs about $1000 without government grants.

For context, a PS3 consumes 380 watts of power. And most HDTVs use about 200 watts of power.

So with only 3 of those panels you could play on your PS3 while the sun is out (obviously you'd use the power to boil water or perform other essentials).

[The Duchess of Zeon]

If it was that bad most suburban families would just install solar panels to provide a small amount of energy to boil water / run PS3.

The median American household income is about 50k / year, and a 200 watt solar panel costs about $1000 without government grants.

For context, a PS3 consumes 380 watts of power. And most HDTVs use about 200 watts of power.

So with only 3 of those panels you could play on your PS3 while the sun is out (obviously you'd use the power to boil water or perform other essentials).

Except solar cells have enormous energy costs to make, and the government will be requisitioning them for large solar cell farms which will provide electrical energy for factories which will be producing components for nuclear reactors, for electrical uranium mining equipment, and for the electric railroads, and so on. And solar cells simply might not be produced at all, even by the central government, if they don't give high enough energy yields.

That energy will be going somewhere--it will be going into building the components and equipment necessary to keep our society from collapsing. You cannot magically get that energy back with money by buying solar panels, as that will consume energy (for the production of the solar panels) which could have been spent building a nuclear powerplant.

Do you now see why peak oil will cause electricity shortages? Because the electricity will be needed to manufacture the components to replace everything that must be replaced, and to upgrade our other energy sources, when our oil-based economy fails.

[aerius]

If it was that bad most suburban families would just install solar panels to provide a small amount of energy to boil water / run PS3.

The median American household income is about 50k / year, and a 200 watt solar panel costs about $1000 without government grants.

Keep in mind that the average American has a negative savings rate and relies on HELOCs, credit cards, and other forms of debt financing to stay afloat. Now that banks are starting to actually enforce lending standards, that easy money is gone, and the average American ain't gonna be buying much of anything.