Four months out: How do you think the US election will go?

[Gandalf]

The US Presidential election is just over four months away. It will most likely be McCain/Other Guy versus Obama/Other Guy.

How do you think it will end in November?

[Coyote]

Obama. McCain cannot even exite his own base, both far-rightists or moderate libertarianists with a little 'L'.

There is the possibility that the GOP convention will pull an upset and actually replace McCain with some other coronted party hack favorite. Rumblings about anointing Romney have been heard, for example. But even if they find a good runner that excites the base, if the GOP does this they'd look disorganized and fickle (or as Rush, Beck and th eother windbags will say, "decisive"), and loose a lot of potential middle-grounders.

[Einhander Sn0m4n]

I'd say 90% chance of an Obama victory, 7% McCain, and 1% coup by Bush. The other 2% is the Unforeseen WTF factor.

[Big Phil]

It'll definitely be Kang... only a moron would vote for Kodos.

[CaptainZoidberg]

Considering that Obama has a solid lead in the 2000/2004 swing states (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa) and might be able to take some typically Republican states like Virginia or North Carolina, it's pretty difficult to imagine McCain winning.

Not only will he have to defend his territory, he's going to have to win states like Ohio where Obama has a 5%+ lead. No small feat...

[Kanastrous]

It'll definitely be Kang... only a moron would vote for Kodos.

Hey, I'm voting for Kodos.

Why do you hate freedom?

[Solauren]

Unless the Republicans pull a fast one and put someone with an insane amoung of popularity on the ticket (i.e not Mccain), I see an Obama victory.

However, I can't see them getting an ammendment change to let Arnold Swartzenager run for president that quickly...

[Guardsman Bass]

Obama, probably. History alone suggests that that will probably be the case; it is fairly rare for a party to hold on to the Presidency after a full eight years in the White House.

Broadening this to the Congressional Elections, I imagine the Republicans are going to get pounded.

[Macunaima]

I'm guessing Obama as well. It has been an interesting primary season to watch -- around here, Warner Home Video has not yet released the seventh season of The West Wing, but then again, who needs it?

Now, funny thing around here is how I'm seeing a negative take about Obama from lots of left wing people in Brazil. They seem to secretly wish that Obama lose the election so it could confirm their black-and-white belief that "americans are all a bunch of racist assholes that will never allow a black person to be POTUS".

No matter how you argue about Obama, his person, his campaign strength, its positive effect on a great deal of the American public and all that jazz, there are a lot of people who never let go their arguments among the lines that "he'll never pass the primaries", or now the general election, or take oath, or finish the presidency, or even built his library and so on. And all in a "just because I say so" style, of course.

[Guardsman Bass]

Now, funny thing around here is how I'm seeing a negative take about Obama from lots of left wing people in Brazil. They seem to secretly wish that Obama lose the election so it could confirm their black-and-white belief that "americans are all a bunch of racist assholes that will never allow a black person to be POTUS".

That's kind of bizarre. But aren't they already sort of disproven? After all, even if Obama loses, he's still a first - the first major non-white nominee of a party for president in the U.S.

[RedImperator]

Looking at polls to determine the outcome at this point is a fool's errand. This time four years ago, John Kerry was up ~10 points. Michael Dukakis was up 16 points. June polls help the campaigns figure out where their strategy is working and where it isn't. They don't help anyone predict the election. If you do want to make predictions, you would have to look at the candidates' strengths and weaknesses, economic conditions, the national mood, which party holds the White House, et cetera. And as has been repeated ad nauseum, almost all those factors favor Obama. But there are still too many wild cards to make solid predictions and plenty of time for McCain to make his case, and seeing as I'm superstitious, I'm not making any hard prediction. I have my private suspicions, but I'm keeping them to myself.

[Guardsman Bass]

Really? That's too bad, Red. Usually I enjoy reading your opinions on politics.

[aerius]

I predict a massive fuckjob of some sort. 2000 had the Florida ballot bullshit, 04 had the Swiftboaters and Kerry's campaign making like the Hindenburg. This year? Who knows, but I'm betting on some stupid crap coming out of left field and throwing everything for a loop.

[Noble Ire]

I agree completely with RedImperator. Trying to gauge the outcome of the general election more than four months before it happens, before either candidate has selected a running mate or even attended their party's convention, is a fool's errand. At the moment, the poor state of the economy and general disgruntlement with the current administration means that Obama has an edge, but never underestimate the fickleness of the American electorate and its willingness to vote against its own interests on the flimsiest pretense. A single scandal, a few mispoken words, or an unforeseen circumstance of any sort could cripple either man's chances, and nineteen weeks is a very, very long time.

[TC Pilot]

Obama, probably. History alone suggests that that will probably be the case; it is fairly rare for a party to hold on to the Presidency after a full eight years in the White House.

What are you talking about? In the last century, a political party has been in the White House for three terms or more for 56 years (McKinley-Roosevelt-Taft, Harding-Coolidge-Hoover, Roosevelt-Truman, Reagan-Bush).

[The Yosemite Bear]

I am currently in the belief that Obama will win, however Bush and Cheney will refuse to hand over power on January 19th, stating the War on Terror requires a continuous state of Emergency.....

[Admiral Valdemar]

I hope Obama wins. Just as I hoped in 2000 and 2004.

[Yogi]

I think I read somewhere that a Black candidate automatically does 10% worse in an actual election as compared to the polls. Unless Obama's utterly clobbering McCain, he'll lose because he's Black.

That, and he's fighting three opponents at once: McCain, the Media, and the stupidity of the Democratic Party. This wouldn't be the first time that they've snatched defeat from the jaws of victory

[White Haven]

McCain's certainly not sparing the internet media blitz...I'm getting more than a little sick of McCain talking points on the bottom of every political thread.

I still think Obama will pull it out, but...well, as has been said, the Democratic party has a hefty load of Stupid to fight against internally, so who can say?

[Fire Fly]

Way too early to tell; all of the polls show an Obama advantage but that will only make the Republicans play harder and dirtier.

[J]

Too early to say, there's at least half a dozen things I can think of off the top of my head which can throw all my guesses out the door, and I'm almost certain a Black Swan event of some sort will completely muck it up.

[ArmorPierce]

I think when you have the lead on the outset like this it is your campaign to loose. Something that may be given a pass for McCain will not be the same for Obama for the reason that people are trying to pin something on him. At this point one single thing can turn race on its head.

[Adrian Laguna]

Obama will turn McCain into road kill, old senile road kill.

[Guardsman Bass]

Obama, probably. History alone suggests that that will probably be the case; it is fairly rare for a party to hold on to the Presidency after a full eight years in the White House.

What are you talking about? In the last century, a political party has been in the White House for three terms or more for 56 years (McKinley-Roosevelt-Taft, Harding-Coolidge-Hoover, Roosevelt-Truman, Reagan-Bush).

Reagan-Bush is a good example. Roosevelt-Taft and Coolidge-Hoover works, but I'm slightly wary of counting them as such, since both Coolidge and Roosevelt only came into the Presidency because their Presidents (McKinley and Harding) died in office. FDR is clearly an exception, but I'm hesitant to count Roosevelt-Truman, since Truman only came into office because FDR died right at the beginning of his 4th term, and Truman barely managed to get re-elected by the skin of his teeth.

[Darth Wong]

I've said this before, and I'll say it again: I have absolutely zero faith in the American voting populace. It wouldn't surprise me at all if some kind of carefully timed baseless swift-boat smear totally destroys Obama's campaign, by attacking him on some ridiculous triviality which happens to push the right emotional buttons.