10 Reasons why $4.00 Gas is Good for USA

[Coyote]

An interesting little thing from TIME Online. Basically a slideshow running down the 10 reasons why huge gas hikes are probably the best thing for the United States.

With so much Gloom & Doom being talked about with regards to Peak Oil, I thought this might look at some other consequences.

Among the reasons:
1 Globalized Jobs Return Home-- it's no longer cheaper to outsource.
2 Sprawl Stalls-- suburban sprawl (and it's accompanying negatives) is reversing.
3 Four-Day Workweeks-- Sick leave, absenteeism and turnover plummets.
4 Less Pollution-- Cutting back on excess travel.
5 More Frugality-- Planning travel in more efficient manners.
6 Fewer Traffic Deaths-- Fewer cars--> Fewer car accidents.
7 Cheaper Insurance-- qualify for cheaper rates by driving less.
8 Less Traffic-- Obviously.
9 More Cops on the Beat-- foot and bicycle patrols mean more community involvement, more fit cops.
10 Less obesity-- Combined with greater health awareness and gas prices, people walk & bike more.

The slides are brief and to the point, but a lot of these point out the overall net good that American gas prices are having on the economy. Other things being inferred but not directly mentioned is that communter services (particularly rail) is in higher demand, so it won't be long before we see investments in that infrastructure and more rail building (I am, I admit, projecting my own desire, but it makes sense, I think).

[Solauren]

1 Globalized Jobs Return Home-- it's no longer cheaper to outsource.

I'll remember that next time I talk to a telemarketeer or call center overseas

2 Sprawl Stalls-- suburban sprawl (and it's accompanying negatives) is reversing.

Along with a housing market crash for properties away from easy transit. Although, I agree, this is a good thing. I can afford a farm cheaper.[/quote]

3 Four-Day Workweeks-- Sick leave, absenteeism and turnover plummets.

Yeah, RIGHT. Employeers can respond with; Call Pooling, Public Transit, or find yourself another job.

4 Less Pollution-- Cutting back on excess travel.

True Enough.

5 More Frugality-- Planning travel in more efficient manners.

Or greater debt.

6 Fewer Traffic Deaths-- Fewer cars--> Fewer car accidents.

Not sure about this. After all, the idiots that cause accidents are the ones that won't really care about the price of gas, and might in fact be stealing it.

7 Cheaper Insurance-- qualify for cheaper rates by driving less.

I'll believe that when I hear it from an insurance agent.

8 Less Traffic-- Obviously.

Unless everyone switches to fuel efficienct or alternate fuel cars.

9 More Cops on the Beat-- foot and bicycle patrols mean more community involvement, more fit cops.

It also means slower response times in some situtations.

10 Less obesity-- Combined with greater health awareness and gas prices, people walk & bike more.

Can't disbute that, unless people switch to alternate fuels or more fuel efficient cars.

[Col. Crackpot]

US Fuel consumption is declining for the first time in forever. Sales of SUV's and large passenger trucks are in free fall. Sales Ford Explorers are down 52%!!! Toyota Tundras down 38%!!

Market Forces are forcing greater fuel efficiency and greener choices in transportation. Quite frankly I hope gas stays this expensive. If for no other reason than that of there being fewer douchebags in Escalades on the road.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

I wonder how much gasoline would be saved if the federal government legislated that the work week had to consist of 4 x 10-hour days and that a fifth day, no matter the hours, was overtime.

[Knife]

I wonder how much gasoline would be saved if the federal government legislated that the work week had to consist of 4 x 10-hour days and that a fifth day, no matter the hours, was overtime.

Only possible for your typical blue collar cubical worker drone. Off the top of my head, medical, utilities and public transportation can't be done this way.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

I wonder how much gasoline would be saved if the federal government legislated that the work week had to consist of 4 x 10-hour days and that a fifth day, no matter the hours, was overtime.

Only possible for your typical blue collar cubical worker drone. Off the top of my head, medical, utilities and public transportation can't be done this way.

For jobs that need daily coverage, have one 4 x 10-hr shift and one 3 x 12-hr shift.

[Admiral Valdemar]

The job I'm in couldn't. During the seventies, the company had a full time service going, even when power was off for days at a time and we didn't have the generator capacity we do now.

That said, there are plenty of jobs that could be done via telecommunications rather than people physically moving to an office. The commute will have to become something done out of necessity, not because the company wants people in a cubicle and can't be arsed to pay for decent networking solutions.

[Colonel Olrik]

7 Cheaper Insurance-- qualify for cheaper rates by driving less.

I'll believe that when I hear it from an insurance agent.

Hmm, this is very much the standard in the EU, at least in the couple countries I've had insurance. Without even changing insurer I'm paying a third less now than two years ago when I was driving almost twice as much.

[Rogue 9]

I wonder how much gasoline would be saved if the federal government legislated that the work week had to consist of 4 x 10-hour days and that a fifth day, no matter the hours, was overtime.

Only possible for your typical blue collar cubical worker drone. Off the top of my head, medical, utilities and public transportation can't be done this way.

Nor most of the service sector, at least not without offsetting it by hiring more people, which most employers really don't want to do. Restaurants, for instance, are not going to start closing for nearly half the week so that everyone has a four-day week, and staying open longer would start requiring even more staff than it already does.

Which is obviously good for the staff, at least until the business goes under from the expense. I work as a baker for a bagel and sandwich shop. It does fairly good business and business isn't dropping off all that much even with the economic situation and the price hikes the boss has had to do to keep up with the price of flour because the customer base consists of fairly well-off people to begin with, and even that's marginal.

[Col. Crackpot]

If my bank went from 7 days a week service to 4 days a week service the state of Rhode Island would burn.

[Knife]

I wonder how much gasoline would be saved if the federal government legislated that the work week had to consist of 4 x 10-hour days and that a fifth day, no matter the hours, was overtime.

Only possible for your typical blue collar cubical worker drone. Off the top of my head, medical, utilities and public transportation can't be done this way.

For jobs that need daily coverage, have one 4 x 10-hr shift and one 3 x 12-hr shift.

Most places already have stuff like that, either 3 on 4 off, 4 on 3 off or other arrangments. Point being is people working all the time still makes energy use, just by a larger group of people. 4 tens just makes those people use less, but more people needed to fill the gaps will still have to go to work on the 3 off and that costs gas, and heat and well you get the point.

The individual will save gas, over all I don't think gas will be saved.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

Only possible for your typical blue collar cubical worker drone. Off the top of my head, medical, utilities and public transportation can't be done this way.

For jobs that need daily coverage, have one 4 x 10-hr shift and one 3 x 12-hr shift.

Most places already have stuff like that, either 3 on 4 off, 4 on 3 off or other arrangments. Point being is people working all the time still makes energy use, just by a larger group of people. 4 tens just makes those people use less, but more people needed to fill the gaps will still have to go to work on the 3 off and that costs gas, and heat and well you get the point.

The individual will save gas, over all I don't think gas will be saved.

Well, let's see. Let's imagine it was all arranged through 12-hour shifts. You'd have four shifts for continuous coverage, and then the shifts alternate working sundays. So it works out to 3.5 days a week per four shifts, i.e., 7 trips for each individual on each shift per week. There are four shifts. To get the same coverage out of 8-hour shift groups, you'd need 3 full-time and 2 part-time shifts (assuming 12-hour shifts for the weekenders for 24-hours a week). That leads into 10 trips for each of the full-time shifts and 4 for each of the part-time shifts. So 30 + 8 / 5 = 7.6 trips per individual per shift per week. You've just reduced gas expenditure at that job by 8%.

[Darth Wong]

1 Globalized Jobs Return Home-- it's no longer cheaper to outsource.

I'll remember that next time I talk to a telemarketeer or call center overseas

Those kinds of jobs are crap anyway.

2 Sprawl Stalls-- suburban sprawl (and it's accompanying negatives) is reversing.

Along with a housing market crash for properties away from easy transit. Although, I agree, this is a good thing. I can afford a farm cheaper.

Those properties were overvalued before, thanks to the distorted economics of cheap gas.

3 Four-Day Workweeks-- Sick leave, absenteeism and turnover plummets.

Yeah, RIGHT. Employeers can respond with; Call Pooling, Public Transit, or find yourself another job.

That would have to happen at the legislative level.

4 Less Pollution-- Cutting back on excess travel.

True Enough.

5 More Frugality-- Planning travel in more efficient manners.

Or greater debt.

Not if the banks are forced to do their jobs properly. This is where government regulation comes in.

6 Fewer Traffic Deaths-- Fewer cars--> Fewer car accidents.

Not sure about this. After all, the idiots that cause accidents are the ones that won't really care about the price of gas, and might in fact be stealing it.

That doesn't follow at all. Care to provide evidence of this correlation?

7 Cheaper Insurance-- qualify for cheaper rates by driving less.

I'll believe that when I hear it from an insurance agent.

8 Less Traffic-- Obviously.

Unless everyone switches to fuel efficienct or alternate fuel cars.

CNN reported that Americans drove 30 billion fewer miles last year as a result of high gas prices. You're quite simply wrong on this one; the data is in, and high gas prices DO reduce traffic.

9 More Cops on the Beat-- foot and bicycle patrols mean more community involvement, more fit cops.

It also means slower response times in some situtations.

In emergency situations, they would still use cars.

10 Less obesity-- Combined with greater health awareness and gas prices, people walk & bike more.

Can't disbute that, unless people switch to alternate fuels or more fuel efficient cars.

As before, the data is in. High gas prices DO make people drive less. And these alternate -fuel cars are expensive as hell.

[Solauren]

My initiate response was to the idea that these will be long term benefits.

I think I should probably expand upon my responses

1 - Globalized Jobs Return Home -
I have no doubt alot of manufacturing jobs will return back to there source contient, or even increase planet wide as the price of shipping a product increases. You'll either see 'Made in Germany' cars only avialable in Germany, or else you'll see Germany car companies opening up manufacturing plants (perhaps entire assembly lines) overseas.
Unfortunately, anything (private sector) that can be telecommuted will probably still be outsourced. This includes some very well paying jobs.
For example, Information Technology related jobs. i.e Programmers. Why pay $30/hour for a programmer that lives in say, New York, when you can hire one to work over the Internet in India for $5/hour?
Unfortuantely, increase manufacturing could lead to increased pollution levels, unless there is government anti-polluion laws put into effect that are effective (is that even possible in the US?)

2 - Sprawl Stalls.
I was agreeing that's a good thing, long term. I'm just thinking of the effects more short term.

3 - Four Day Work weeks.
I agree, a 4 day work week would have to be legislated. And I can't see it happening. The second you do that, you'll have Government unions getting involved, and trust me, if you think Public Servant strikes are bad, you should see Government Unions involved in legistlation.....

5 - More Frugality - Since when as the United States ever regulated the economic sector?
Canada will be fine. I agree. The US on the other hand...

6 - Fewer Traffic Deaths.
Okay, here's my thinking -
Now a days, the majority of car accidents appear to be caused by inconsiderate idiots that shouldn't be driving in the first place.
i.e the kind that talk on cell phones while driving, or don't obey the rules of the road.
Those people, in my experience, are self-absorbed enough they'll just complain about the gas prices, or if they are scummy enough, steal the gas.
Now, I admit, I have no statistical backing for this. Hopefully, I'm mostly wrong, and the majority of them will get off the roads.

8 Less Traffic
I agree, short term, there will be less traffic. However, this is where market demand comes in. (See Below)

9 More Cops on the Beat
I was thinking about the time for a large scale response, and the needed increase in man power to properly cover a large metropoliton area with the same effectiveness and protection level as having a largely vehicle equiped force. It becomes a question of emergency force projection. That's my concern.

However, on the plus side, this could increase the number of police stations throughout a city, possibly approaching the number of fire stations. This is a good thing as far as I'm concerned, but I go of topic.

10 Less Obesity
I was thinking Long term, (See Below). I have noticed at work, the number of mountain bikes locked up outside has increased so that all the racks are full by 9:30 (thankfully, I get there at 8 or so).

Short Term, I agree, however, that higher fuel prices should be good for the US.

I'm just thinking long term, will the effects hold, or will someone come up with a new form of fuel that will undo alot of this?

American culture is so in love with the car, there will be a great enough demand for more fuel efficient, or cheap-alternate fuel cars, they'll end up on the road in a few years. For example, my much repeated 'car that runs on air' that was developed by a french company (MDI), copyrighted and prototype (I believe in france, you have to have a working model of a device to patient it) and has been liscenced to the company that's going to be making the 'Nano' car for sale in India (Tata Motors).

Now, the Nano and the air car have similiar profiles. Both are compact and made of light weight materials. One would think that they might have similiar manufacturing and economic profiles as well. If the AirCar is safe, and Tata Motors could upgrade the Nano to run on that technology, and then sell it globally.

Can you imagine how fast the Nano would sell in North America with high gas prices, at $2,500 USD (price listed on the only article I cound find the Nano, no price specs on the Air Car, sorry), if it ran on mostly on air, was considered safe?

Long term, we should expect to see vehicles back out on the road, with a vengance. It's just a question of market demand and technological innovation.

And once they return, we'll be seeing more Traffice, probably less Beat cops, and more fat-asses on cell phones causing car accidents.

[Ender]

One thing I'm reading though is that schools are shifting to a 4 day week. And long term that will fuck us so hard it isn't even funny.

[Uraniun235]

One thing I'm reading though is that schools are shifting to a 4 day week. And long term that will fuck us so hard it isn't even funny.

Where is this occurring? I haven't heard so much as a hypothetical scenario about this at the school district I work at, nor anything from the local or regional news outlets.

Although on this note, the district I work at has already been going to four-day weeks over the summer break for years now.

[Guardsman Bass]

I wonder how much gasoline would be saved if the federal government legislated that the work week had to consist of 4 x 10-hour days and that a fifth day, no matter the hours, was overtime.

Interestingly enough, my Governor (Jon Huntsman of Utah) is actually trying to set this up, so that all public employees of the state government work 4 10-hour shifts instead of 5 days.

[Guardsman Bass]

One thing I'm reading though is that schools are shifting to a 4 day week. And long term that will fuck us so hard it isn't even funny.

If you made the school days longer, and assigned more homework over the weekends (or gave the kids weekend projects, or required community service hours, or something), you could probably still make up for it.

For example, when I went to high school, we had 5 days of school from 7:30 AM to 2:30 PM, give or take a few minutes- about seven hours a day, for about 35 hours of school a week. If you wanted to concentrate that on four days, you could have 4 9-hour days, from 7 AM to 4 PM with a half hour lunch, or so.

[Rogue 9]

That presumes that the children will on the whole put up with a nine hour school day; I'm not convinced they would. My father teaches music lessons (I help him when the lesson requires a bassist), and the students who come in directly after school for their lessons are already starting to get cranky, inattentive, and/or hyperactive. I can't imagine they'd be learning much by the end of the day if their school day was nine hours.

[Rye]

$4 a gallon, I presume? I would wet my pants if our petrol cost that much, it'd be Christmas come early.

Will that issue with more cops on the beat really happen, though? I would have assumed the greater fuel bill would just get passed on at the next budget.

[Admiral Valdemar]

Four dollars is pocket change. We haven't seen real price rises yet, nor have we seen any demand destruction. Anything the US stops using, the Chinese and Indians will use. They have a fair few billion in US dollars to subsidise that gasoline, so while Americans are stuck with four, five, six, seven and so on for a gallon of refined dino-juice, the Chicoms will be enjoying those SUVs no one can manage to sell any more over here.

I guess this is really what we deserve. Not that I'm happy about it, though as Rye says, four dollars? Piece of cake. I'll happily take that now, though truth be told, at twice that, I'm still sitting pretty next to some people.

By the way, maybe we should follow the Marshall Islands' route, and declare a state of emergency as they have done this month.

[CmdrWilkens]

On the school front I'd be more than happy to try and steer high schools towards two mode split which could easily favor the 4 day week: (this is based on HoCo high schools which are at ~30hrs/wk)

A) VoTech, as manufacturing returns and as more technician/repair/skilled labor jobs areout there this needs to come back and there is nothing to say you can't do 3 hours of "traditional" educaiton in the morning, long break (1-1.5hrs) for lunch followed by 3 hours of vo-tech.

B) College Prep, go onto the M/W and T/Th class schedule system and go with 1.5hrs long clases (that are really 1.25hrs) with 15min breaks in the middle just like many college classes and 2 hrs (really 1.5 with 2 breaks) classes. Thus you would get 4 days with 8 total classes (4 3 credit and 4 4 credit) with 2 of each per day and a total of 7.5 credit hours per day along with a half hour lunch period and 10 seperate 15min breaks you can probably avoid most crankiness. Hell you could even allow a bit of curriculum freedom and thus a period or two might be free every other day which would still give you 7 classes and probably about the equivalent of 24 credit hours per semester. If you start at 8am this would still be over by 4,

The only big yelp would be from the high school sports crowd that would point out that practicing in the winter after 4pm just ain't cutting it but aside from the fact that this schedule leaves Friday's as a game day I don't have an answer for that problem.

[Surlethe]

Four dollars is pocket change. We haven't seen real price rises yet, nor have we seen any demand destruction. Anything the US stops using, the Chinese and Indians will use. They have a fair few billion in US dollars to subsidise that gasoline, so while Americans are stuck with four, five, six, seven and so on for a gallon of refined dino-juice, the Chicoms will be enjoying those SUVs no one can manage to sell any more over here.

The really funny and ironic thing is that us being stuck with four, five, six, etc. per gallon of gas is going to start weaning us from the fuel before the really major price spikes and shortages, while countries who heavily subsidize their fuel will suddenly start hurting. They will still be headed up shit creek (without a paddle), so to speak, while we'll have started on our way out.

[Guardsman Bass]

The only big yelp would be from the high school sports crowd that would point out that practicing in the winter after 4pm just ain't cutting it but aside from the fact that this schedule leaves Friday's as a game day I don't have an answer for that problem.

Do they have to practice every day? You could probably work out an arrangement where the P.E. equivalent can be substituted for practice time.

[Solauren]

Or have the high school teams practice on the day off.