The Iran Thread (Now with everything!)

[Admiral Valdemar]

They have nothing to lose if the US and Israel decide they really want to do it and fuck up the global stage with some attack. Iran is perfectly entitled to nuclear power, yet these hawks will beat every drum to the brink of war, before mentioning talks again (something that supposedly helped lower oil ten bucks this past day).

Sooner or later, end game will come into play. Who starts that phase is anyone's guess, but don't be fooled into thinking the Iranians will roll over and die like the Iraqi National Guard did in '03. It'll be a fight to the death for them.

[Darth Wong]

I have been intermittently working with an Iranian programmer who emigrated to the UK just a few months ago. He believes that a large minority of the Iranian religious government is ready and willing to play the escalation game with the US and Israel, because they genuinely believe that Allah will only intervene on their behalf when the situation gets desperate enough to necessitate it. I don't completely understand it, but it seems to be similar to the end-times bring-on-revelations thinking in the American far right, only even worse.

That doesn't surprise me (or, I suspect, anyone else here). If there is a sizable contingent in the US government that thinks it is necessary to bring on the End Times, there must surely be something similar in the Iranian government.

However, people over there are also more cognizant of ancient history than Americans are, and they would surely know on some level that it wasn't the power of Allah who drove out the first Crusaders from the Middle East. It was the cold steel blades of Saladin's armies.

[Starglider]

However, people over there are also more cognizant of ancient history than Americans are, and they would surely know on some level that it wasn't the power of Allah who drove out the first Crusaders from the Middle East. It was the cold steel blades of Saladin's armies.

You might think that, but unfortunately not. The two generations that have grown up in the nearly 30 years since the Shah was deposed have been educated almost entirely by religious fanatics. History is relevant only to the point that it supports the authority and message of the religious leadership - a leadership that consolidated its power base in the Iran-Iraq war, where Iran was countering superior weapons with massive human wave attacks. My colleague says that it was actually dangerous to know too much about anything other than religion (because the government fears intellectuals) and I believe him.

This is why Iran's industrial base is falling apart (to the point of now having regular power cuts in Tehran) - the country doesn't produce that many engineers and scientists to start with and all the good ones flee as soon as they can.

[Admiral Valdemar]

The Iranians have a truly terrifying new way to match and even surpass our missile shield programmes.

[Kitsune]

It appears as if a news of a Missile launch from Iran, part of the image is photo shopped. We have one person on another board who seems to disagree that it is not. Opinions here?

http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/0 ... ex.html?hp

[Admiral Valdemar]

I posted this in the thread on Iran.

[Resinence]

It's shooped. For one, they are both shots of the same launch, and the truck dissapears but the smoke from the extra missile is in the wrong place to cover it.

Now look at the trail for the 3rd (new) missile, there is a noticeable cutoff in the smoke that does not look natural and below that the smoke looks... strange, it's had a blur/smudge applied, and if you look closely he fucked up and smudged the pasted on launch smoke too much at the edge.

For fuck's sake he could have at least sourced the smoke he pasted on from a different frame so it wasn't IDENTICAL TO THE LAUNCH CLOUD NEXT TO IT.

[Ender]

The Iranians have a truly terrifying new way to match and even surpass our missile shield programmes.

Hey, it worked for Hezbollah.

[Falkenhayn]

However, people over there are also more cognizant of ancient history than Americans are, and they would surely know on some level that it wasn't the power of Allah who drove out the first Crusaders from the Middle East. It was the cold steel blades of Saladin's armies.

Kingdom of Heaven gives the propper religous meme.

Saladin: How many battles did the Muslims win before I came...or should I say, before God Willed that I should come?
Imam: That was because we were sinful.

I also wouldn't stick with that example. Saladin was a Shi'a Kurd, and master of Shi'a Egypt under the Ayubbids. Cross him with what Hezbollah did a while back and you get a potent message of "Sunnis caterwall and blow up kids, Shi'a Do The Bussiness."

[Rogue 9]

Their Photoshop skills are weak. Only one missile? Bah, they can do better than that!

[Admiral Valdemar]

I would laugh so hard if they had that on the front page of The Times or something.

[Spyder]

Why the hell would they bother? Oh no, we can't have people think we're weak by only having 3 missiles in the air! Quick, get us a forth!

[Stark]

Their Photoshop skills are weak. Only one missile? Bah, they can do better than that!

OH MY GOD IT'S ACE COMBAT

[Kitsune]

More like Missile Command

[Vympel]

I still love it how everyone shits their pants about this, as if Iran's primitive missiles are some sort of existential threat to our way of life. Funny how the Soviet Union's massive, practically-world-destroying ICBM arsenal was played up less.

[Darth Wong]

I still love it how everyone shits their pants about this, as if Iran's primitive missiles are some sort of existential threat to our way of life.

To be fair, these missiles are much more threatening than the imaginary Iraqi nuclear research RVs that the Bush Administration used as its casus belli.

[Sidewinder]

Funny how the Soviet Union's massive, practically-world-destroying ICBM arsenal was played up less.

The difference was the Soviet leaders thought of themselves as pragmatists, tried to convince other government leaders the same thing, and would thus "tone down" some of their anti-Western ranting. The hotline between the White House and the Kremlin also helped American and Soviet leaders clear up misunderstandings.

There is no hotline between the White House and Tehran. The ranting Iranian government leaders and figureheads is often accepted at face value because the West has no other POVs to compare them to, i.e., a senior Iranian official saying, "That jackass we made president was just talking shit. I can guarantee to the Arab nations that we will not initialize hostilities against them."

[Losonti Tokash]

Why the hell would they bother? Oh no, we can't have people think we're weak by only having 3 missiles in the air! Quick, get us a forth!

The reason they added the fourth was to literally cover up the fact that one of the missiles failed. At least that's what I've been told.

[Straha]

Iran's missile test this week did not demonstrate any new capabilities, according to a U.S. official familiar with the intelligence, and the test may not have included one of the longer-range missiles Iran claims was among those launched.

Iranian officials claimed the tests Wednesday and Thursday demonstrated a new variant of the Shahab missile that had a range of 1,250 miles. Such a missile would put much of the Middle East in striking distance, including Israel — as close as 650 miles from Iran — as well as Turkey, Pakistan and the Arabian peninsula.

The tests drew immediate criticism from U.S. officials. In Eastern Europe during the launches, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said the missile tests underscored the need for a U.S. missile shield in the region.

But an independent national security blog, ArmsControlWonk.com, Thursday analyzed video footage of the launch posted by the Iranian government. It determined the missiles were identical to a version of the Shahab missile first demonstrated in Iran in 1998 that has a known range of 746 miles.

In a post called "Same old Boring Shahab 3," it compared the diameter of the missile to its length and found it to be identical to the 1998 version.

Unless the Iranians built a larger missile with the same length to width ratio, dramatically improved the thrust of the rocket or decreased its internal structural mass, the missile could not achieve the range Iran claimed it did. Otherwise, it is the same knockoff of North Korea's Nodong-1, according to the blog.

Iran falsely claimed in February that it launched a two-stage missile that later analysis determined to be a one-stage Shahab missile, according to the Union of Concerned Scientists, a Washington, D.C. arms control advocacy think tank.

"Iran frequently exaggerates the capability of its missiles, and it appears it is continuing that tradition with this week's tests," said David Wright, co-director of the Union's Global Security Program.

The U.S. official familiar with the intelligence said the Iranian tests involved eight or nine missiles — most fired on Wednesday and one more several hours later early Thursday. It was a mix of missiles ranging from medium-range to close-range battlefield rockets. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss preliminary analysis, said the exact models had not yet been decisively determined by U.S. intelligence.

Pentagon press secretary Geoff Morrell said the test is being taken seriously, and was an attempt to destabilize the region.

"We don't believe this exercise to have been an illusion," he said Friday. Still, he added, "They were not testing new technologies or capabilities, but rather firing off old equipment in an attempt to intimidate their neighbors and escalate tension in the region. That is not the way to win the trust and confidence of the national community."

Tehran staged the missile tests as a show of strength in response to a recent Israeli military exercise.

An Iranian government photograph showing a cluster of missile launches was apparently altered to add a fourth missile lifting off from a desert range.

"There's no doubt the photo was doctored," said Mark Fitzpatrick, director of the Non-Proliferation Program for the London-based International Institute For Strategic Studies.

The image, posted Wednesday on Iran's Revolutionary Guard Web site, showed four missiles moments after launch, leaving trails of glowing exhaust and clouds of billowing brown dust.

Oh those crazy Iranians...

[Straha]

Analysis of Iranian television coverage has also indicated that one of the weapons actually remained on the ground but the video was doctored in an effort to cover up the failure.

The tests were the latest escalation in muscle-flexing between Iran and Israel as the threat of war grows over the Islamic regime's nuclear ambitions.

Ehud Barak, the Israeli defence minister, is to urge the Bush administration to adopt a tougher line against Iran and will try to persuade the American public of the need for military action during a three-day visit to Washington this week, a former top adviser said.

Iran claimed last week to have tested a new version of the Shahab missile with a 1,250-mile range that would put in range much of the Middle East, including Israel and Turkey and the Arabian peninsula, and Pakistan.However, a respected independent national security website, ArmsControlWonk.com, concluded that the missiles were identical to an earlier version of the Shahab, first unveiled by Iran in 1998 with a known range of 746 miles.

In a posting called "Same old Boring Shahab 3", it analysed Iranian video footage, comparing the diameter of the missile to its length and found it to be identical to the decade-old version.

Other defence analysts believe that the missile was a Shahab 3a model with a
900-mile range.

Iran also issued misleading statements about the ranges and doctored videos to make the firings seem more numerous and fearsome than reality, The New York Times reported.

Coverage showing what appeared to be many missiles being fired was apparently just one device, filmed from different angles. "Deception was rampant," said Charles Vick, an expert on the Iranian missile programme at Global Security, a prominent defence think tank.

Despite the deception, the Pentagon said it was taking the tests seriously, viewing them as an attempt further to destabilise the region.

"We don't believe this exercise to have been an illusion," said Geoff Morrell, a spokesman.

But he added: "They were not testing new technologies or capabilities, but rather firing off old equipment in an attempt to intimidate their neighbours and escalate tension in the region."

Tehran's show of strength followed a recent Israeli military exercise apparently designed to prepare for possible air strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran claims the programme is for civilian energy purposes, but Israeli and Western intelligence believe it is seeking atomic arms.

As Mr Barak arrives in Washington tomorrow there is increasing alarm among Israeli leaders at America's perceived reluctance to consider military action to stop Iran acquiring nuclear weapons, according to the Jewish state's former national security adviser, Uzi Dayan.

"We need to persuade the US not to take this issue off the agenda," said the retired major-general, a senior aide to Mr Barak when he was prime minister.

Mr Barak's visit is part of a series of Israeli efforts to convince Washington of the Iranian threat. Mossad chief Meir Dagan has just wrapped up a round of talks in the US, while the Israeli army's chief of staff, Gabi Ashkenazi, is expected to travel to Washington shortly.

Last week's missile tests sent oil prices soaring from $136 to $147 a barrel, delivering a windfall gain worth billions of dollars to Iran's oil-based economy.

[Edi]

A little slow on the uptake, aren't you? Though the original thread hasn't got the articles.

[Kitsune]

Can we just merge them?

[Edi]

I'd have done that already if I had mod powers in N&P.

[Mr Bean]

I'd have done that already if I had mod powers in N&P.

You could have asked but nooo, you make me drag it out of you.

Thread's merged to high hell

[Straha]

A little slow on the uptake, aren't you? Though the original thread hasn't got the articles.

I made a seperate thread because, unlike the earlier one which was solely on the doctored missiles, the new news story is that the entire thing was a fraud. They fired off ten year old missiles and claimed that they were something completely different. It's a mostly different subject and quite a bit more serious than "Iranians use Photoshop."