Master of Ossus wrote:Which has what to do with my point?
You argued that the NES and Game Boy had
no competition. I listed multiple competitors for the Game Boy that were in fact, SUPERIOR PIECES OF HARDWARE.
Fucking hell, the Sega Nomad was literally a portable Sega Genesis, it went up against the Game Boy Light, which was simply a slimline Game Boy. Your argument that the Game Boy had no competition FAILS UTTERLY. The idea that the NES had no competition at all is laughable, as several systems were launched around the same time.
I disagree. Nintendo is a sufficiently close competitor to compete with Microsoft for console gaming.
Again, you're being fucking retarded. This is literally you saying that minivans will take over the market of sports cars.
Wait, I thought that Wii wasn't competing with 360 and PS3. Can you please try to remain self-consistent throughout an entire post?
It's not direct competition, like I've said NUMEROUS TIMES. The consumers that buy Wiis and that buy PS3/360's intersect, but one does not wholly consume the other. Christ, have you never seen a Venn Diagram?
Fuck, what kind of economist are you? Even ignoring the Wii, the lower-priced 360 has sold more than the higher-priced PS3. There was even a marketing moment where Microsoft said something along the lines of "Buy a 360 and a Wii instead of a PS3, it's about the same price for even more fun!"
The Wii is in competition with the 360 and PS3:
In the first two years of PS2's run, it sold 25.5 million consoles. In the first two years of their respective existences, the GC and X-Box had each sold about 10 million consoles. By then, the PS3 had sold nearly 55 million consoles. I think that even you will agree that the PS2, GC, and X-Box were in more-or-less direct competition.
Those three consoles shared very similar performance, and in fact shared a great number of similar titles. This generation is very different. While Xbox and Playstation lept forward on the technological level, Nintendo merely slapped two gamecubes together and threw in a fancy widget. At this point, you're comparing two monster gaming computers to a modestly fitted tablet PC. What next, you're going to tell me that THOSE are substitute goods? Jesus, do you listen to yourself? How the fuck did you graduate if you abuse the terminology that much?
360 launched about 3 years ago, and since then has sold less than 20 million consoles. The other two consoles launched about a year later. (For purposes of comparison, I'm ignoring the various staggered launches which harm the previous generation). So in the first three years of last generation, about 75 million competing consoles had sold. If you discount the Wii, then in three years since the launch of the generation PS3 and 360 have sold less than 35 million consoles--half of what the PS2 generation pushed to consumers in the same time period (and, for much of that, the PS2 was unavailable). So unless you're saying that demand for gaming consoles has been cut in half from last generation, you can see reasonably clearly that the Wii does, in fact, compete with the other two consoles.
Demand has gone down, by and large, since we are in a depression at this point, people are less likely to buy luxury goods like gaming systems. One of the primary reasons the Wii has sold so well is because it has tapped a very different market from the usual console staple of the 14-34 year old male. There will always be that market demographic, and they will commonly demand games like what the 360 and PS3 have offered, but there is a NEW DEMOGRAPHIC involved here, one that doesn't give a shit about the high-end gaming systems.
Remember that to be in direct competition, the goods have to target the same group of consumers. Nintendo is clearly not targeting the same demographics as Sony and Microsoft. Why do you think I specifically used Sports Cars and Minivans in my example? Most soccer moms won't get a fucking sports car because they don't care about what the sports car can offer, they want a minivan because they can haul their kids and sports equipment around in it easily.
How do you NOT get this? By appealing to a different set of gamers, Nintendo is no longer directly competing with the other two companies because if you took the "serious" games out, you'd see a barely noticable drop in overall sales. The same goes for the casual games available on XBLA and PSN. While all three make some money from these other ventures, it's not their primary form of income. Just like a sports car has a trunk and could technically seat four people, it's not really well designed for that, and when they stop offering that as options, they still sell well. Minivans with great handling and performance do exist, but it's not the primary reason people buy them, and remove those options completely, and you'll still sell loads of them.
Indeed, even counting sales of last-gen consoles since the launch of the 360, we see that without the Wii, console sales have not quite kept pace this generation with last generation since the launch of the first console. Comparing first and second year sales of the PS3 and 360 against the GC, PS2, and X-Box present an even bleaker picture for this generation.
I think the bleaker picture you're looking at is for the economy in general. I mean, we ARE in the middle of a depression here in America, and Japan's economy has been pretty shitty for a while as well. But hey, let's blame the game industry, clearly they are sucking out loud. Wait, what does this have to do with anything? Oh, right, nothing.
All data, though, indicates that console gaming got MORE popular throughout last generation, suggesting that console gaming in general is growing. So where are these missing console sales? With the Wii, which shows that it competes with the other two consoles. (All data from VGChartz.com).
All you've got is sales data, which, while nice, does not show a causal relationship for anything without something else behind it, and you just don't have it. Again, I go back to my automobile examples. The market relationship between sedans, minivans, trucks, sports cars, and SUVs is not one of direct competition. A Ford sedan vs. a Toyota sedan is direct competition, THOSE are substitute goods. A Subaru Truck vs. a Kia Sedan or Coupe is NOT, because they do not provide the same services.
Sales totals would indicate that without the Wii, at best console gaming has been totally stagnant since last gen, even though we know that this isn't true. Therefore, the Wii must be drawing sales away from the 360 and PS3, which makes it a substitute good.
Ignoring the depression, ignoring the vast new demographics purchasing the Wii, ignoring the capabilities of the Wii compared to the other consoles, ignoring the library of the Wii compared to other consoles, only then can you shape the data to fit the conclusion YOU WANT.
Oh, please. You cannot pretend as if sports cars have NO COMPETITION from comparable vehicles. If major manufacturers started giving away minivans for free, do you seriously not think that this would have any effect at all on sales of sports cars?
Barely any. People who buy sports cars want them for specific reasons, the power, the handling, the glitz and style. While they may take a ridiculously offered minivan, their next move would be to sell it to help pay for a fucking sports car.
Jesus, what kind of moron are you? Is there no middle ground in that brain of yours? Something is either a substitute good or not at all related? Have you ignored everything I said thus far, or are you so mentally backwards as to not understand what I've written? I never claimed that there was ZERO competition, but rather, no DIRECT competition. Manufacturers don't price sports cars in comparison to minivans, they don't try to sell them to the same demographics, they don't try to bring up any comparison at ALL, save, "Wouldn't you rather be driving a sexy sports car instead of a lame car?". One vehicle's selling point is UTILITY FOR THE FAMILY, and the other is about compensating for a tiny dick, to put it in none too fine terms. What about this is so hard for you to comprehend?
Butter and garlic are probably complementary.
Ah, but they are both additives for food. Using the same level of simplistic analytical rigor you've used thus far, "both move people" and "both play games", it matches. So which is it, Mr. Consistency? Are you applying more rigor to food than cars and electronics?
I don't even think that's true, though.
The chart, here, suggests that consoles peak in their second and third calendar years after launch. Both Nintendo handhelds peaked in their third year post-release, and the magnitude of the differences here suggests pretty strongly to me that the actual consoles all enjoyed peak annual sales in their second year.
Handheld sales and console sales are commonly different from each other, but hey, looking at the chart you've shown, you can clearly see that after the first year and a half, the console sales have peaked.
Sorry, I guess I should have added six months to my estimate. My bad.
When I went through that same site's
tables, I found that the X-Box, PS2, and GC each peaked in their second calendar year (going one year out and then two years from release). <snip rest>
So...about 1.5 years after launch? I'm not overly surprised. Like I said, early initial peak followed by steadily declining sales over time. That I was off by a few months doesn't really damage the point I was making, which is there are more sales early on than there are later.
Well, I think you're being quite optimistic when you say that the price of games stays the same as under a more traditional sales model.
Oh really? The biggest increase in price we've had for games in the last ten years is $10 for HD games, and that was only in this generation. It's not even that new, as $60 PC games have debuted in the past.
Do I have to break out the inflation calculator again to show how a $10 increase in over 20 years of gaming is not a big deal?
I'll grant you this, but I do not view this as analogous to the situation with gaming consoles in that Microsoft had virtually no control over when new software is released, when advancements in hardware occur, and when new engines are constructed. In all of those, I can see that they have some minimal degree of influence, in that they can release new protocols or developer tools (or not), but this in no way approaches the degree of influence that a console manufacturer has over its developers and consumers.
It's not a perfect comparison by any means, but at this stage of the game, Microsoft is in the position to dictate when we use tech and how we use it. If they don't feel like conforming to some new piece of tech, they don't have to, and there's nobody in the PC gaming industry that can make them. If gaming falls completely under the dominion of Microsoft, we will see more stagnation in the general gaming market than you could possibly imagine. The general dearth of fun and original titles today will seem like a god-damned cornucopia of awesome and win if we ever have a total gaming monopoly like you're suggesting.
It's not even that it would be a malicious move, but one borne of fiscal necessity. They would make the games that sell the most copies, which means appeasing the masses, which means taking fewer risks on unknown properties. While the resulting games would start out pretty good, before long we'll have forgotten what a really innovative game is like until someone breaks the mold, which could take some time, as the bar for making a modern game gets higher and higher, with more money spent on art teams than programmers, with the primary resource being man-hours and funding. The list goes on, but you're looking at a gradual decline, and while there would be benefits, like systems that absolutely will run the games and a common platform with all titles available on it, in the end the consumer would lose until something upset the natural order, which might not be for decades after.
Obviously not enough to get people to go to other OSes that people are less familiar with. In any case, though, I've never said there weren't costs associated with monopoly. I've said that one competing console manufacturer is a sufficient check to prevent these abuses while delivering most of the benefits of full competition, and that the difference between two competing manufacturers and one is not as great as exclusivity issues to consumers.
One competitor is never enough. Look at ATi/Nvidia, at AMD/Intel, at 3Dfx/Nvidia, and so on. Most notably, look at 3Dfx/Nvidia. Once Voodoo stagnated from its own success, Nvidia got so far ahead of them that the company failed, leaving Nvidia the undisputed king of video cards until ATi came along. If ATi failed to remain competitive in this iteration of video cards, it would have fallen into obscurity as well. AMD and Intel have a similar problem, with Intel currently beating the living shit out of AMD. At this point, AMD is going to have to give up going head to head and just try to carve a niche into budget processors and pray Intel doesn't kick their ass there as well. Look at Sirius and XM Radio for another example, they got tired of competing with each other and just merged instead.
Duopolies are inherently unstable mixtures, as they provide too little competition. In rare cases, they can work to keep each other in check, but usually not for long. Either one eventually fails, or they merge together. Imagine if, after a while, Microsoft just buys out Nintendo. I mean, as successful as Nintendo is right now, it is primarily a gaming company, not the software giant that Microsoft is.
That's the state of affairs, right now, but there's little reason why that must always be the case.
Other than that different hardware and applications for each system belie different strengths, leading to exclusive titles, which lead to general advancement of consoles overall, which leads to the search for new innovations...you know, the usual stuff.
Conceded, although I haven't really seen any devs "graduate" from stuff like XBLA to "serious" games.
Well to be fair, it does take time. We're only now beginning to see the fruits of the XBLA Dev Tools.
Fair enough, but in a world with less competition we'd be getting more benefits from "exclusive" titles, but without the problems of leaving large numbers of consumers out in the dark because they bought into another system.
Eh, I don't think that would be the case. With less competition there's less drive to improve your product in some way. After all, you don't need to make your system better in some way than both X and Y, just X. Necessity is the mother of invention, and you don't need to come up with some new gadget to keep ahead of the pack, you generally won't. Consider a race. The more people in the race, the more you have to worry about being overtaken by any one person. If there's a geriatric in the race, you're not worried about them, you're worried about the lean, muscular guy coming up behind you. Remove enough people from the race, and there's a greater chance that all you have to worry about is the geriatric dude. It's a rough example, but hopefully it gets the point across. Once your main competitor slips, all you have to do is stay one step ahead of them and stay there, simply waiting for fatigue to finish him off. We gamers like to talk big about brand loyalty, but at the end of the day, we can be just as ruthlessly practical as anyone else.
So far as I can tell, they've been talking a lot with the qualifier of "third-party sales," which is a convenient way of throwing out Wii-Fit, Mario Kart Wii, and Smash Bros. Brawl in the year that they all released (as well as a whole bunch of other Nintendo titles that are still selling). So, basically, by excluding most of the competition's best games, they have been outselling the competition's software in America.
Haven't noticed that qualifier, but if so, then yes, that's bull.
I think you're attributing to competition what can be more reasonably attributed to advancement. It's profitable to release new systems, after a while, and there's good reason to advance them at a pace roughly commensurate with technological advances. Also, MS Live would have to be improved periodically just to try and get more owners to use Live.
I was referring more to the level of online function that XBL offers, which is to date unmatched by the PS3 or Wii. People bitch about paying for it, but so far nobody's offered anything better. The point is that something like XBL isn't really based off of technological advancement any more than the Wii's controller is, the tech has been there for a very long time, it's just that now it's being properly utilized to grant a competitive edge over rivals.
I don't know what you're getting at with the 1920's food example,
The Great Depression. Food was so plentiful that prices plummeted, which in turn meant that farmers could not afford to keep their farms, which in turn led to them LOSING their farms, which of course led to a food shortage and one of the major factors which caused the Great Depression.
Short version: Lower prices for food is good for the consumer, but generally bad for the supplier. You can only go so far in one direction (benefiting the consumer or the supplier) before the whole thing falls apart and nobody wins.
but I think you're attributing way too much of the advancement in consoles to competition. X-Box Live would still exist without Sony, and would probably be about as good as it is, anyway. I suppose that it's helpful for multiple companies to be able to generate ideas separately, but that can be achieved within a single company, too, without the duplication of efforts problem that influences consoles today. I also don't see how Nintendo would be so far removed from Microsoft's systems that innovations in things like on-line gaming presentation, controllers, etc. would not migrate back and forth between the companies.
The Xbox would likely not exist if not for the overall success of Sony, Sega, and Nintendo, because they helped to keep the console market alive and profitable, which led to Microsoft entering the field in the first place, to try and get a piece of the pie. Microsoft also knew that they needed an angle, and going back to the overall success and strengths of the PC gaming market, brought in online components.
As for Nintendo vs. Microsoft, one need only look at their conferences of the last few days to see the directions each are taking. The Wii is keeping largely to casual games and toys (programs without "win" conditions, as I define them), while Microsoft is continuing the trend of hard core gaming, online capabilities, media access, and so on.
PS. Again, can a neutral mod please split this long tangent?
Meh, apart from some few hotly contested points, we're moving more into civil discussion of the finer points of E3's consequences, though it is more a debate on the consequences of a gaming duopoly, I suppose.