Army's ARH Program falling apart.

N&P: Discuss governments, nations, politics and recent related news here.

Moderators: Alyrium Denryle, Edi, K. A. Pital

User avatar
MKSheppard
Ruthless Genocidal Warmonger
Ruthless Genocidal Warmonger
Posts: 29842
Joined: 2002-07-06 06:34pm

Army's ARH Program falling apart.

Post by MKSheppard »

Link

ARH Breaches Nunn-McCurdy Caps

Jul 10, 2008
Michael Bruno and Graham Warwick

The U.S. Army’s Bell ARH-70 Armed Reconnaissance Helicopter (ARH) program has filed a Nunn-McCurdy cost and schedule breach, but the Army’s second-highest general asserts the program already is advancing.

“The key performance parameters for ARH have been validated and revalidated,” said Army Gen. Richard Cody, vice chief of staff. “We have to go through this process by law.”

Cody said the July 9 filing triggers a mandated 60-day review process among the industry team, the Army’s Program Executive Office for Aviation and the Pentagon’s acquisition, technology and logistics office. But the armed service’s need for the new helo remains the same.

“We need an ARH,” Cody said. “We only have 340 Kiowa Warriors. We need over 368 today and we need 520 to fill out our reorganization and modernization.”

ARH is a “key” part of the triad with Apache Block III and manned/unmanned teaming concepts, said the four-star general, set to retire this year. “We need that helicopter, and I hope we get it. We can’t build new Kiowa Warriors,” he said.

Block III will be what Comanche would have been for Future Combat Systems, he further said.

After a program restructuring, the first unit equipped is now planned for July 2011. A Defense Acquisition Board (DAB) meeting once scheduled for July 2 to approve ARH low-rate initial production was pushed back to June 2009 while the DAB instead was asked to bless the restructuring and approve procurement of 10 production-representative test vehicles to keep initial operational test and evaluation on track for June 2010 (Aerospace DAILY, May 5).

Last year the Army looked at alternatives to a Bell model after problems in the program arose. But changes in management and its approach convinced the Army to continue work on the Bell Helicopter Textron model (Aerospace DAILY, Nov. 5, 2007).

Photo: Bell Helicopter

--------------------------------------------

and

Bell's friends rescue ARH
BOB COX
STAR-TELEGRAM STAFF WRITER

Bell Helicopter, faced with losing a $4 billion Army helicopter contract, called friends in high places and gained an 11th-hour stay of execution.

A trade publication reported Thursday that Army officials decided to cancel Bell's contract to develop the Armed Reconnaissance Helicopter outright but were overruled after the company received help from political supporters.

Inside Defense reported that acting Army Secretary Pete Geren, a former Democratic congressman from Fort Worth, interceded with his subordinates and gave Bell 30 days to submit a plan to fix the troubled program.

After a high-level meeting of Army officials Tuesday, Assistant Army Secretary Claude Bolton called Bell Chief Executive Richard Millman and told him that the contract was being terminated, according to several sources who declined to be identified because of their relationships with Bell and the Army. Bell officials, believing that they had not gotten a fair hearing, called area politicians. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, R-Texas, called Geren, the sources said.

A spokesman in Hutchison's office declined to comment on the matter. Army officials did not respond to questions.

After Geren weighed in, the Army's aviation program office transmitted a notice to Bell late Wednesday ordering the company to stop work on the program and submit a plan within 30 days "which describes a strategy that maximizes contract performance while minimizing negative cost and schedule impact to the government."

Bell spokesman Mike Cox said company officials are confident that they can address the Army's concerns and retain the contract.

"We are preparing a package that we, Bell, think represents the best path forward on the continued development of the ARH," Cox said. "Bell's commitment to the ARH remains strong."

During the next 30 days, if the Army approves, Cox said that "Bell and several of our key suppliers plan to continue development work at our own [expense]."

Bell won the $210 million contract to develop the ARH in mid-2005 with a proposal to turn its civilian model 407 helicopter into an armed aircraft capable of performing missions now handled by the Army's aging fleet of Bell OH-58D Kiowa Warrior aircraft. Four prototypes have been flown, including one that crashed in Mansfield last month, but development work is more than a year behind schedule and Bell is $100 million or more over budget.

Instead of getting enough aircraft to outfit an operational squadron by fall 2008, the Army now says it would be December 2009. And Bell has said it would lose between $2 million and $4 million per aircraft on the initial 48 helicopters at the contract price.

Brig. Gen. Steven Mundt, the Army's chief of aviation programs, said the service is ready and willing to listen to Bell's suggestions on how it will speed delivery and cut the cost. He said the cost could reach $10 million per aircraft, up from the contract price of $5.5 million for the initial 12 helicopters.

"The operative word is that the Army is 'concerned,'" Mundt said in an interview with Bloomberg News. "We fully support getting this airplane, but we want them to come to us and tell us, no kidding, what we are going to do. If it's not within the limits, we can't continue on that course. We've got to find someplace else to go."

Mundt said Bell Helicopter's contract "absolutely can be" terminated if the company can't make a compelling case.

"Our hope is that Bell is absolutely going to come with Textron and say: 'Hey, guys, sorry for any confusion. We got it. The program is good, and we're moving forward,'" Mundt said, "but we are not going to allow cost escalation like this, schedule escalation like this."

Bell spokesman Cox said the test aircraft "have accumulated over 500 flight hours in less than two years" and have "met several important milestones and won accolades from Army test pilots."

----------------------------------------

Now guys, this is the cheaper, "we can get it right now" alternative to the cancelled megabuck Comanche. :roll: If we hadn't cancelled Comanche, it would be rolling off the lines by now; and while a lot of it is sheer absurd overkill, it would have mostly been paid for and ready -- as opposed to having to start the dev cycle all over again....
"If scientists and inventors who develop disease cures and useful technologies don't get lifetime royalties, I'd like to know what fucking rationale you have for some guy getting lifetime royalties for writing an episode of Full House." - Mike Wong

"The present air situation in the Pacific is entirely the result of fighting a fifth rate air power." - U.S. Navy Memo - 24 July 1944
User avatar
Sea Skimmer
Yankee Capitalist Air Pirate
Posts: 37390
Joined: 2002-07-03 11:49pm
Location: Passchendaele City, HAB

Post by Sea Skimmer »

Comanche was to have cost about 23.5 million for the first dozen, and 17 million with mass production…. And now we have to pay half that to get a piece of civilian shit with no armor and hardly any weapons. Great move Pentagon (actually I think it was exactly one Army general in fact who killed RAH-66), great move. Your brilliant foresight of assuming that as time passes the cost of everything wont rise with inflation and then some is shown once again.
"This cult of special forces is as sensible as to form a Royal Corps of Tree Climbers and say that no soldier who does not wear its green hat with a bunch of oak leaves stuck in it should be expected to climb a tree"
— Field Marshal William Slim 1956
User avatar
SirNitram
Rest in Peace, Black Mage
Posts: 28367
Joined: 2002-07-03 04:48pm
Location: Somewhere between nowhere and everywhere

Post by SirNitram »

Lemme see if I'm getting this straight.

Army: Commanche canceled, it's replacement isn't ready yet and is cost-overruning like Bush with a new budget supplement. FCS is still a laughable joke.

Navy: It's big super-duper next-gen warship is going to have two and little more, because they're nearly unusuable. Apparently, Darkstar and Timothy Jones were recruited to design them.

Air Force: Insufficient F-22's to replace the fleet, no new bomber plans soon, wasting money on 'comfort capsules', it's fuel-tanker acquisition was a corrupt joke.

I think we can say that, while it took a while, the whole 'Military Industry Complex' finally came about. Money pours into the big military industrials, and they laugh their way to the bank while the military finds itself shit outta luck.

Nice job, Pentagon. Nice job.
Manic Progressive: A liberal who violently swings from anger at politicos to despondency over them.

Out Of Context theatre: Ron Paul has repeatedly said he's not a racist. - Destructinator XIII on why Ron Paul isn't racist.

Shadowy Overlord - BMs/Black Mage Monkey - BOTM/Jetfire - Cybertron's Finest/General Miscreant/ASVS/Supermoderator Emeritus

Debator Classification: Trollhunter
User avatar
RIPP_n_WIPE
Jedi Knight
Posts: 711
Joined: 2007-01-26 09:04am
Location: with coco

Post by RIPP_n_WIPE »

Whoa whoa whoa, they cancelled the comanche!!!

Holy shit that thing is like god o death helicopter!!! I was interested in joining the Army Air wing just to fly them.


WHAT THE FUCK!!!!

I am the hammer, I am the right hand of my Lord. The instrument of His will and the gauntlet about His fist. The tip of His spear, the edge of His sword. I am His wrath just as he is my shield. I am the bane of His foes and the woe of the treacherous. I am the end.


-Ravus Ordo Militis

"Fear and ignorance claim the unwary and the incomplete. The wise man may flinch away from their embrace if he girds his soul with the armour of contempt."
User avatar
Sea Skimmer
Yankee Capitalist Air Pirate
Posts: 37390
Joined: 2002-07-03 11:49pm
Location: Passchendaele City, HAB

Post by Sea Skimmer »

SirNitram wrote: Air Force: Insufficient F-22's to replace the fleet, no new bomber plans soon, wasting money on 'comfort capsules', it's fuel-tanker acquisition was a corrupt joke.
Northrop Grumman recently got 2 billion for a classified program, which rumor is represents funding for a demonstrator (not an actual prototype) for the ‘2018’ regional bomber requirement. Anyway, the crisis in the fighter force is a bigger problem now that the F-35 is projected to cost at least 3/4ths as much as F-22 while still having plenty of time left to further spiral in cost.

I think we can say that, while it took a while, the whole 'Military Industry Complex' finally came about. Money pours into the big military industrials, and they laugh their way to the bank while the military finds itself shit outta luck.

Nice job, Pentagon. Nice job.
I’d blame moronic Congressional oversight alongside the utter stupidity of both the military and civilian employees at the Pentagon. Congresses various defence committees are mostly staffed by idiots who had no idea what they are doing, so mostly they just end up meddling around with programs in extremely unhelpful ways, like ‘slowing down’ funding as if less money will somehow make it easier to develop high tech projects.
"This cult of special forces is as sensible as to form a Royal Corps of Tree Climbers and say that no soldier who does not wear its green hat with a bunch of oak leaves stuck in it should be expected to climb a tree"
— Field Marshal William Slim 1956
User avatar
SirNitram
Rest in Peace, Black Mage
Posts: 28367
Joined: 2002-07-03 04:48pm
Location: Somewhere between nowhere and everywhere

Post by SirNitram »

I'm not entirely sure the fighter force is the biggest concern, given the lack of real competition in that sector now and in the foreseeable. Indeed, with fuel costs spiking up and up and up, we may wind up with alot of museum peices while we try and come up with a new way to rule the skies.

As for Congress, no doubts there. But the ridiculous nature of the whole mess is that you've got three groups working pretty much to insulate against responsibility. The Pentagon will still demand bold new devices. The big defense industrials will still make promises it knows won't be acheived. And the Congressionals paid off by the defense industrials will ensure no one ever, ever gets a swat on the wrist, let alone a real consequence, for laughably bad overruns, late delivery, and missing features.
Manic Progressive: A liberal who violently swings from anger at politicos to despondency over them.

Out Of Context theatre: Ron Paul has repeatedly said he's not a racist. - Destructinator XIII on why Ron Paul isn't racist.

Shadowy Overlord - BMs/Black Mage Monkey - BOTM/Jetfire - Cybertron's Finest/General Miscreant/ASVS/Supermoderator Emeritus

Debator Classification: Trollhunter
User avatar
Ender
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 11323
Joined: 2002-07-30 11:12pm
Location: Illinois

Post by Ender »

I am firmly convinced the DoD and all its programs need a through audit by an independent team. Last time they did that was what, the 70s?
بيرني كان سيفوز
*
Nuclear Navy Warwolf
*
in omnibus requiem quaesivi, et nusquam inveni nisi in angulo cum libro
*
ipsa scientia potestas est
User avatar
Sea Skimmer
Yankee Capitalist Air Pirate
Posts: 37390
Joined: 2002-07-03 11:49pm
Location: Passchendaele City, HAB

Post by Sea Skimmer »

Ender wrote:I am firmly convinced the DoD and all its programs need a through audit by an independent team. Last time they did that was what, the 70s?
The GAO is supposed to do the job today, but the personal don’t understand weapons so they recommend canceling everything for inane or unrealistic reasons. An audit team for the DoD only would be an improvement.

I’m not fond of big penalties for defense contractors though, thanks to the 1990s mergers we only had a handful left, and it wouldn’t actually take that much to kill most of them off or at least drive them totally out of the defense sector. The military changes detailed requirements so often that its virtually impossible for any high tech system to come on one time and on budget anymore. That’s a big part of the reason why F-35 rose in cost so much, massive changes to the planned avionics several years into the design process.
"This cult of special forces is as sensible as to form a Royal Corps of Tree Climbers and say that no soldier who does not wear its green hat with a bunch of oak leaves stuck in it should be expected to climb a tree"
— Field Marshal William Slim 1956
User avatar
FSTargetDrone
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 7878
Joined: 2004-04-10 06:10pm
Location: Drone HQ, Pennsylvania, USA

Post by FSTargetDrone »

RIPP_n_WIPE wrote:Whoa whoa whoa, they cancelled the comanche!!!

Holy shit that thing is like god o death helicopter!!! I was interested in joining the Army Air wing just to fly them.
Yeap, over 4 years ago now. Guess you weren't following the program lately. :)
The Boeing-Sikorsky RAH-66 Comanche was cancelled on 23 February 2004, after 22 years, 6 program restructurings, and 6.9 billion dollars. The Army said it would use the $14.6 billion earmarked for 121 Comanches between 2004 and 2011 to buy 796 additional Black Hawk and other helicopters and to upgrade and modernize 1,400 helicopters already in the fleet. The Army wants new proposals to develop and build a new armed reconnaissance aircraft. The Army plans to initiate programs for a total of 303 light utility helicopters and 368 armed reconnaissance planes.
Image
User avatar
RIPP_n_WIPE
Jedi Knight
Posts: 711
Joined: 2007-01-26 09:04am
Location: with coco

Post by RIPP_n_WIPE »

FSTargetDrone wrote:
RIPP_n_WIPE wrote:Whoa whoa whoa, they cancelled the comanche!!!

Holy shit that thing is like god o death helicopter!!! I was interested in joining the Army Air wing just to fly them.
Yeap, over 4 years ago now. Guess you weren't following the program lately. :)
The Boeing-Sikorsky RAH-66 Comanche was cancelled on 23 February 2004, after 22 years, 6 program restructurings, and 6.9 billion dollars. The Army said it would use the $14.6 billion earmarked for 121 Comanches between 2004 and 2011 to buy 796 additional Black Hawk and other helicopters and to upgrade and modernize 1,400 helicopters already in the fleet. The Army wants new proposals to develop and build a new armed reconnaissance aircraft. The Army plans to initiate programs for a total of 303 light utility helicopters and 368 armed reconnaissance planes.
Dude why?!?! That thing was rediculous. Internal bays, low profile, stealth. All in a fucking rotatry wing!! Not to mention if it looked cool!! I mean fuck if I was on a battlefield and saw THAT coming at me I'd just shit my pants, curl up into a ball and wait to die.

I am the hammer, I am the right hand of my Lord. The instrument of His will and the gauntlet about His fist. The tip of His spear, the edge of His sword. I am His wrath just as he is my shield. I am the bane of His foes and the woe of the treacherous. I am the end.


-Ravus Ordo Militis

"Fear and ignorance claim the unwary and the incomplete. The wise man may flinch away from their embrace if he girds his soul with the armour of contempt."
User avatar
Vympel
Spetsnaz
Spetsnaz
Posts: 29312
Joined: 2002-07-19 01:08am
Location: Sydney Australia

Post by Vympel »

Sea Skimmer wrote:Comanche was to have cost about 23.5 million for the first dozen, and 17 million with mass production….
You don't actually believe that? When was the last time their cost estimates for any military item came remotely close to reality? F/A-18E Super Hornet?
And now we have to pay half that to get a piece of civilian shit with no armor and hardly any weapons. Great move Pentagon (actually I think it was exactly one Army general in fact who killed RAH-66), great move. Your brilliant foresight of assuming that as time passes the cost of everything wont rise with inflation and then some is shown once again.
I'd be surprised if they could've ever got RAH-66 to work. It wasn't exactly an exemplary program. That said, I have no idea how one messes up such a clearly unambitious program. It's a civilian airframe, for pete's sake.
Like Legend of Galactic Heroes? Please contribute to http://gineipaedia.com/
User avatar
Julhelm
Jedi Master
Posts: 1468
Joined: 2003-01-28 12:03pm
Location: Brutopia
Contact:

Post by Julhelm »

Weight issues.
User avatar
Losonti Tokash
Sith Devotee
Posts: 2916
Joined: 2004-09-29 03:02pm

Post by Losonti Tokash »

Forgive me if I'm wrong, but wasn't the Comanche a piece of crap as well? With all the shit they loaded on it, I thought the only way it was able to fly was if they took pretty much all the armor, to the point where it was an attack chopper that could be brought down by small arms.
User avatar
Ma Deuce
Sith Marauder
Posts: 4359
Joined: 2004-02-02 03:22pm
Location: Whitby, Ontario

Post by Ma Deuce »

Dude why?!?! That thing was rediculous. Internal bays, low profile, stealth.
Radar stealth is of very limited use in helicopters, whose main threat is MANPADS, RPGs and AA guns. Since the Comanche had less armor (make that next to no armor) and firepower compared to an Apache, it'd be at a distinct disadvantage in most real world situations. One might argue the Comanche was a part recon bird and not a pure gunship, but I don't see why you can't use UAVs for reconnaissance and dispense with "recon helicopters" entirely.
Image
The M2HB: The Greatest Machinegun Ever Made.
HAB: Crew-Served Weapons Specialist


"Making fun of born-again Christians is like hunting dairy cows with a high powered rifle and scope." --P.J. O'Rourke

"A man who has nothing for which he is willing to fight, nothing which is more important than his own personal safety, is a miserable creature and has no chance of being free unless made and kept so by the exertions of better men than himself." --J.S. Mill
User avatar
Lonestar
Keeper of the Schwartz
Posts: 13321
Joined: 2003-02-13 03:21pm
Location: The Bay Area

Post by Lonestar »

Sea Skimmer wrote:Comanche was to have cost about 23.5 million for the first dozen, and 17 million with mass production…. And now we have to pay half that to get a piece of civilian shit with no armor and hardly any weapons. Great move Pentagon (actually I think it was exactly one Army general in fact who killed RAH-66), great move. Your brilliant foresight of assuming that as time passes the cost of everything wont rise with inflation and then some is shown once again.
I happen to know that General. General Thurman said "We're just trying to cram a porsche into a civic" or some other auto-motive metaphor.

I forget.

It made sense at the time when he explained it to me.
"The rifle itself has no moral stature, since it has no will of its own. Naturally, it may be used by evil men for evil purposes, but there are more good men than evil, and while the latter cannot be persuaded to the path of righteousness by propaganda, they can certainly be corrected by good men with rifles."
User avatar
MKSheppard
Ruthless Genocidal Warmonger
Ruthless Genocidal Warmonger
Posts: 29842
Joined: 2002-07-06 06:34pm

Post by MKSheppard »

Stop Organ Grinding against contractors, Nitram.

This mess is the direct result of about sixteen years of mismanagement at the Pentagon by senior military leaders and the appointed civilian leadership, plus the malfeasance of Congress and their audit arm. Dick Cheney also plays a part as SecDef under Bush I.

We'll start with the Navy first.

Navy

SSN-21/Centurion/NSSN/Virginia

The Cold War is over, why are we going to buy 12 to 29 Seawolf SSN-21s to defend against a threat which just evaporated? Cheney starts to talk about cancelling the program; and Congress gets into the whole thing, and eventually it's agreed to terminate the program at 2 boats and instead develop a cheaper alternative for our next generation SSN called Centurion or NSSN. This new program will also be oriented away from "legacy" missions and more towards "littorial" missions to stay "revelant" to Congress.

At the time the program was launched, the price was to be $1.5 billion per boat. By the time Centurion is in production as the Virginia SSN, it costs about $2 billion, with the latest Virginias funded in FY2007 costing $2.7 billion. By contrast, the third Seawolf, added to production orders by Clinton against the Navy's wishes because he made a campaign promise to keep the shipyards open, cost $1.9 billion (when corrected to FY07 dollars).

Let's not get into all the money that was wasted in R&DTE for the Virginias -- one of the program reports I have for early in the program shows a steady supply of about $400 million each year in R&DTE funding, that's about $567 million in today's dollars. Multiply that by several years, and well....

CVX/CVN(X)/Ford Class CVNs

In the 1990s, there was a huge debate over what to do for the Navy's carrier force's future, with a battle between the "Legacy" Big Deck Supercarrier and the "Transformational" Smaller Ship. A lot of concepts were explored during the development process of CVX before the "Legacy" side won and we got a very large "evolved" CVN with a a lot of new technologies, like an integrated electric propulsion system, electromagnetic catapults, etc.

Image
STUDY 3C (STEALTH MONOHULL)

That's one such study explored as part of the CVX process.

A-6/A-12/AFX/JSF

The sad story of why the Navy relies on the EKAF-18 Super Hornet begins back in the mid 1980s. Grumman was awarded a contract for the A-6F Intruder II.

The old attack radars would be replaced with the AN/APQ-173 multimode radar with longer range, and ISAR capabilities for long range ship recognition, plus an air to air mode for use with AIM-120s and AIM-9s, making the A-6F self-escorting to an extent.

There would be an all glass cockpit with it's HUDs, Tactical computers and datalinks common with the F-14D.

The Engines were to be two 10,800 lbf non afterburning F404-GE-400D turbofans, which were to have 99% commonality with the afterburning version which powered the F-18A/B/C/D. You could swap engine cores between the F-18 and A-6F with a few hours to remove the afterburner components.

The wing would be a new composite wing, eliminating a lot of the stress problems plaguing the A-6 fleet, and the airframes would be new-build.

However, the program died rather quickly, because the Navy needed the money to support the A-12 Avenger II program. A Grumman proposal for an A-6G which were to be re-winged A-6Es with the new electronics died also.

Now we move onto the A-12 Avenger II, also by Grumman. The Flying Dorito was to be a stealthy attack craft and all that entails. It of course suffered from cost overruns, and it's cost per airframe had gone up to about $165 million ($258.67 million today) by the time it was cancelled by SecDef Cheney; who did it in a way to cause the DoD to end up in a hugely expensive litigation lawsuit for unlawful breach of contract.

The Navy then sort of moved onto the AFX program, a sort of stealthy fighter/attack plane.

Image
Render of one proposed AFX design by our very own Julhelm.

The AFX only got a little far before it was killed by the Clinton Administration who decided that having the US Air Force developing it's own F-16 replacement, the US Navy developing a F-18 replacement, and the US Marine Corps looking at a Harrier replacement was too expensive, and cancelled both programs and directed the services to have to work with a "Joint" Aircraft.

Now, the F-35 is horribly over time and budget; with a lot of problems being due to the USMC VTOL version being horribly overweight. The present buy of 430 F-35Cs by the Navy and Marines will only put a single squadron of F-35Cs onto each carrier, with the rest of it being Super Hornets. The JSF also factors sort of into the F-22 buy (but that comes later).

By the way, as a closing word; the very first F-18E/F Super Hornets that we bought in FY1997 cost us a cool $219 million in today's dollars. By 2003, we had gotten the price down to a mere $80.7 million in today's dollars. Economies of scale -- this will come into play later in the F-22/F-35 section.

Air Force

B-2 Spirit

So, the original plan was to buy 132 B-2s when the program started. This was later reduced to 75 when the program started to spin up and was nearly finished for production. All well and okay. The production lines were being built and sized to operate efficiently around the planned 75 aircraft force.

And then Bush I in his '92 SOTU announces he's terminating B-2 production at 20 aircraft, mainly because the threat has evaporated and it's "too expensive". Like Congress later on, Bush I doesn't understand basic production economics. The first B-2As we ordered in FY92 cost $3.3 billion each in 2007 dollars, but by FY93, the cost was down to a mere $954.1 billion in today's dollars.

I've got some estimates on manhours for production of the B-2; and the first aircraft cost Northrop a cool 3.5 million manhours. They estimated that the 11th aircraft would only cost a million. You can see where the cost savings are coming from.

F-22/F-35

I think we all know the story of the F-22. Built to be the uberfighter to defeat the commies over the Fulda Gap. As the cost of the F-22 rose upwards as part of the development and integration cycle; DoD kept cutting numbers in response to Congressional pressure:

Original Goal: 750 x F-22As
1990 Goal: 648 x F-22As
1994 Goal: 442 x F-22As
1997 Goal: 339 x F-22As
2006 Goal: 183 x F-22As

Current cost of the F-22A is about $138~ million per aircraft.

As development cycle costs raised the price of the aircraft, this caused Congress to cut the numbers "to save money"; which in turn raised the cost per aircraft even more. Idiots.

So Congress looked towards the F-35 as the "Cheap" alternative to the expensive F-22, since it was programmed to cost quite a bit less than the F-22.

However, the F-22 was just finishing it's torturous development cycle, while the F-35 was only just beginning it.

Right now, there's only a $58 million difference between the F-22 and F-35; and the F-22 flies much higher and faster (the F-35 had supercruise deleted to save money in development); among other things. This is all based on an $80 million fly away cost for the F-35; which is only likely to go up, as F-35 numbers are cut. So it's very likely the total cost difference will be only $30~ million between the two. Brilliance.

Oh yes, part of the reason for funding the F-35; was because the F-22 was a Cold War "legacy" system, while the F-35 would be a transformational networked joint system.

I think I'll do the army next, along with such things as Block III Abrams, Crusader, etc -- it's enough to make you cry how we scrapped "legacy" systems in favor of "transformational" systems which then exploded in cost until they're nearly as expensive as the "legacy" systems, or more; while offering much much less capability.
"If scientists and inventors who develop disease cures and useful technologies don't get lifetime royalties, I'd like to know what fucking rationale you have for some guy getting lifetime royalties for writing an episode of Full House." - Mike Wong

"The present air situation in the Pacific is entirely the result of fighting a fifth rate air power." - U.S. Navy Memo - 24 July 1944
User avatar
Sea Skimmer
Yankee Capitalist Air Pirate
Posts: 37390
Joined: 2002-07-03 11:49pm
Location: Passchendaele City, HAB

Post by Sea Skimmer »

Vympel wrote:
You don't actually believe that? When was the last time their cost estimates for any military item came remotely close to reality? F/A-18E Super Hornet?
I was just checking and it seems the cost estimate for the initial did rise to about 24 million, and, would have gone up more because of yet another utterly stupid decision to cut numbers and more importantly the production rate to save money Total program cost was going to work out to about 40 million an airframe. Interestingly I also found that the Army did take steps to correct one of the real shortcoming of the aircraft, which was the initial inability to carry Hydra rockets internally for hitting soft targets, by developing a new launcher.

As it is, canceling the aircraft meant completely throwing away 7.5 billion dollars in R&D and contact cancellation fees.

I'd be surprised if they could've ever got RAH-66 to work. It wasn't exactly an exemplary program. That said, I have no idea how one messes up such a clearly unambitious program. It's a civilian airframe, for pete's sake.
It’s a civilian airframe but the Army still wants some advanced electronics to be carried around inside it, and because it’s so different and smaller nothing designed for RAH-66 can be reused.
Losonti Tokash wrote:Forgive me if I'm wrong, but wasn't the Comanche a piece of crap as well? With all the shit they loaded on it, I thought the only way it was able to fly was if they took pretty much all the armor, to the point where it was an attack chopper that could be brought down by small arms.
It’s a reconnaissance helicopter first and foremost, meaning it was never meant to withstand heavy anti aircraft fire, and in all reality no chopper can, the light attack role was secondary. OH-58D meanwhile has served for decades with ZERO armor, and the AH-1 Cobra has exactly one small piece of armor ahead of the gunner, plus sort of bullet resistant canopy glass…. So having only light armor on RAH-66 is not any real disadvantage. ARH-70 goes back to zero armor BTW. The protection standard was to be armor against 7.62mm gunfire for crew and engines, plus

The Comanche would have also been faster, far more agile, much more heavily armed (best armament to total weight ratio of any chopper) and fitted with much more modern sensors, besides being very stealthy against radar and with significant infrared, visual and acoustical signature reductions. That cant help but improve survivability. The crew crash protection standards are also much higher then previous Army helicopters. It did suffer from being overweight, but only slightly. This was expected to make it fail its requirement for rate of climb but not anything else.

By no means was it the best thing ever like F-22, but now we’ve got a situation in which our existing choppers are being shot out of the sky and we are stuck with absolutely no means to replace them. ARH-70 was supposed to be in mass production by the end of 2007 and now it looks like development may start all over again. I’d have rather just wasted money on RAH-66.
"This cult of special forces is as sensible as to form a Royal Corps of Tree Climbers and say that no soldier who does not wear its green hat with a bunch of oak leaves stuck in it should be expected to climb a tree"
— Field Marshal William Slim 1956
User avatar
MKSheppard
Ruthless Genocidal Warmonger
Ruthless Genocidal Warmonger
Posts: 29842
Joined: 2002-07-06 06:34pm

Post by MKSheppard »

Various CVX studies:

Image
"If scientists and inventors who develop disease cures and useful technologies don't get lifetime royalties, I'd like to know what fucking rationale you have for some guy getting lifetime royalties for writing an episode of Full House." - Mike Wong

"The present air situation in the Pacific is entirely the result of fighting a fifth rate air power." - U.S. Navy Memo - 24 July 1944
User avatar
Uraniun235
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 13772
Joined: 2002-09-12 12:47am
Location: OREGON
Contact:

Post by Uraniun235 »

Curiosity tangent: What are the definitions of "small", "medium", and "large" air wings? How does Nimitz compare?
"There is no "taboo" on using nuclear weapons." -Julhelm
Image
What is Project Zohar?
"On a serious note (well not really) I did sometimes jump in and rate nBSG episodes a '5' before the episode even aired or I saw it." - RogueIce explaining that episode ratings on SDN tv show threads are bunk
User avatar
Patrick Degan
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 14847
Joined: 2002-07-15 08:06am
Location: Orleanian in exile

Post by Patrick Degan »

Uraniun235 wrote:Curiosity tangent: What are the definitions of "small", "medium", and "large" air wings? How does Nimitz compare?
If memory serves, a Nimitz carries an air group of about 95 craft. That is standard for large fleet-carriers.
When ballots have fairly and constitutionally decided, there can be no successful appeal back to bullets.
—Abraham Lincoln

People pray so that God won't crush them like bugs.
—Dr. Gregory House

Oil an emergency?! It's about time, Brigadier, that the leaders of this planet of yours realised that to remain dependent upon a mineral slime simply doesn't make sense.
—The Doctor "Terror Of The Zygons" (1975)
Falkenhayn
Jedi Council Member
Posts: 2106
Joined: 2003-05-29 05:08pm
Contact:

Post by Falkenhayn »

Patrick Degan wrote:
Uraniun235 wrote:Curiosity tangent: What are the definitions of "small", "medium", and "large" air wings? How does Nimitz compare?
If memory serves, a Nimitz carries an air group of about 95 craft. That is standard for large fleet-carriers.
What percentage of actual operational strength is that? I thought one of the gripes about current naval organization was that no carrier air wing operates at more than 75% strength.
Many thanks! These darned computers always screw me up. I calculated my first death-toll using a hand-cranked adding machine (we actually calculated the average mortality in each city block individually). Ah, those were the days.
-Stuart
"Mix'em up. I'm tired of States' Rights."
-Gen. George Thomas, Union Army of the Cumberland
Falkenhayn
Jedi Council Member
Posts: 2106
Joined: 2003-05-29 05:08pm
Contact:

Post by Falkenhayn »

edit:

"gripe" is overharsh from what I intended.
Many thanks! These darned computers always screw me up. I calculated my first death-toll using a hand-cranked adding machine (we actually calculated the average mortality in each city block individually). Ah, those were the days.
-Stuart
"Mix'em up. I'm tired of States' Rights."
-Gen. George Thomas, Union Army of the Cumberland
User avatar
Sea Skimmer
Yankee Capitalist Air Pirate
Posts: 37390
Joined: 2002-07-03 11:49pm
Location: Passchendaele City, HAB

Post by Sea Skimmer »

Falkenhayn wrote: What percentage of actual operational strength is that? I thought one of the gripes about current naval organization was that no carrier air wing operates at more than 75% strength.
Nimitz was designed to carry about 80 fighter/attack planes and around 95-105 planes total. Today thanks to the complete elimination of fixed wing ASW and shortfalls in fighter numbers they typically have about 50 fighters and 15-20 other aircraft consisting of ASW choppers, rescue choppers, E-2 Hawkeye’s, COD planes and one or two other things… Any extra flight deck and hanger volume however can and has been used to support other things, like army helicopters. This was done for Haiti and Afghanistan. Having more free space also just makes it easier to work on the planes and keep operational rates high.

It should also be kept in mind that newer Nimitz also give over more hanger volume to maintenance and weapons workshops then the original design, so capacity for aircraft is reduced somewhat.
"This cult of special forces is as sensible as to form a Royal Corps of Tree Climbers and say that no soldier who does not wear its green hat with a bunch of oak leaves stuck in it should be expected to climb a tree"
— Field Marshal William Slim 1956
User avatar
Stark
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 36169
Joined: 2002-07-03 09:56pm
Location: Brisbane, Australia

Post by Stark »

Since lowering the buy on a decades-long, multibillion project is so obviously a bad idea, what's the motive? Does the money 'not spent' go to other military projects? Since the cuts of this sort are sometimes before the production even starts, are they cutting future expenditures?
User avatar
Sidewinder
Sith Acolyte
Posts: 5466
Joined: 2005-05-18 10:23pm
Location: Feasting on those who fell in battle
Contact:

Post by Sidewinder »

Ma Deuce wrote:One might argue the Comanche was a part recon bird and not a pure gunship, but I don't see why you can't use UAVs for reconnaissance and dispense with "recon helicopters" entirely.
A civilian who was promoting the Comanche program at a 2003 expo (held at Ft Bragg) said because a UAV's field of view is so limited, data from it must be subjected to time-consuming analysis and verification; he said something like, "By the time [the military intelligence personnel, their commander, and your commander] determine that what [the UAV] saw was an enemy formation, the enemy's already eating dinner in your mess hall."

Another problem I thought of is the possibility jamming and other electronic warfare techniques might render a UAV uncontrollable (we still don't have AI that can let a UAV fly itself instead of relying on a human pilot transmitting commands to it) or unable to send real-time data back to the control station. Comments on the possibility of this happening?
Please do not make Americans fight giant monsters.

Those gun nuts do not understand the meaning of "overkill," and will simply use weapon after weapon of mass destruction (WMD) until the monster is dead, or until they run out of weapons.

They have more WMD than there are monsters for us to fight. (More insanity here.)
Post Reply