I! CAN'T! DRIVE! FIFTY FIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIVE!

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I! CAN'T! DRIVE! FIFTY FIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIVE!

Post by Invictus ChiKen »

If certain people have there way... Sorry the article just begs the title...

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The Insanity of Drive-55 Laws
By STEPHEN MOORE
July 24, 2008; Page A15

It didn't seem possible that politicians could think up a sillier energy proposal than Barack Obama's windfall profits tax on oil companies, but Republican Sen. John Warner of Virginia has done just that.

Earlier this month, Mr. Warner suggested a return to the federal 55-mile-per-hour speed limit on America's highways, as a way to save on national gasoline consumption. "I drive over 55 miles an hour, . . . sometimes 65," he said on the Senate floor. "But I am willing to give up whatever advantage to me to drive at those speeds with the fervent hope that modest sacrifice on my part will help those people across this land . . . dealing with this financial crisis."

Meanwhile, environmental groups across the country are also pushing a lower national speed limit to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The notion here is that if people simply lift the pedal off the metal on the highways, they will help avert an environmental apocalypse.

Mr. Warner may be willing to drive slower to save gas. The vast majority of Americans surely are not. The original 55 mph speed-limit law, enacted in October 1974 after the OPEC oil embargo as a way to save energy, was probably the most despised and universally disobeyed law in America since Prohibition. In wide-open western states, driving at 70 mph or even 80 mph on miles upon miles of straight, flat, uncongested freeways is regarded as a God-given right. In the 1970s and '80s, the federal speed limit was a daily reminder of the intrusiveness of nanny-state regulation.

States were bullied into complying. If they didn't, they risked losing federal highway money -- which came from the gas taxes paid in part by their own residents. The law -- "double nickel," as it was called -- was so hated in Montana that the state legislature passed a law capping speeding tickets at $5. In Wyoming, the highway patrol told speeders to hold on to the tickets they issued because they were good for the whole day.

In 1995, the newly ascendant Republican Congress repealed the 55 mph limit. Most states acted quickly to allow speeds of up to 65 mph or even 75 mph on their interstates, and for good reason. As an energy saving policy, the double nickel was a bust. The National Motorists Association reports that about 95% of American drivers regularly exceeded the federal speed limit. Does it make sense to resurrect a law that 19 out of every 20 Americans disobeyed?

In the first few years when the law was strictly enforced, according to the Congressional Research Service, gasoline consumption was reduced by about 167,000 barrels a day. But over time the law was increasingly ignored, and average speeds on the highway fell by only a few miles per hour. The National Research Council estimated in 1984 that Americans spent one billion additional hours a year in their cars because of the speed limit law.

Mr. Warner repeats the myth that a lower federal speed limit will increase traffic safety. Back in 1995, Naderite groups argued that repealing the 55 mph limit would lead to "6,400 more deaths and millions more injuries" each year. In reality, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration data reveal that in the decade after speed limits went up (1995-2005), traffic fatalities fell by 17%, injuries by 33%, and crashes by 38%. That's especially significant because in 1995 far fewer drivers were gabbing on their cell phones or text messaging while driving.

In a study for the Cato Institute in 1999, I compared the fatality rates in states that raised their speed limits to 70 mph or more (mostly in the South or West) with those that didn't (mostly in the Northeast). There was little difference in safety. Of the 31 states that raised their speed limits to 70 mph or more, only two (the Dakotas) experienced a slight increase in highway deaths. The evidence is overwhelming that traffic safety is based less on how fast the traffic is going than on the variability in speeds that people are driving. The granny who drives 20 mph below the pace of traffic on the freeway is often as much a safety menace as the 20-year-old hot rodder.

Retail gasoline stores report that Americans have already reduced their gas purchases by about 5% this year -- presumably by driving less and buying more fuel-efficient cars. At $4.59 a gallon, motorists don't need to be lectured by politicians on the financial savings from cutting back. Those who want to stretch their dollars can drive 55 mph on their own (though they are well advised to stay in the right lane).

But many liberal and green do-gooders want the double nickel precisely because they want to force everyone to share in the sacrifice required. As an egalitarian friend once told me, he loves traffic jams because they are the ultimate form of democracy.

To the left, fairness means we all suffer equally together. In light of this alleged moral imperative, it doesn't matter if a lower speed limit means Americans would spend two billion extra hours on the road, or that, according to the Labor Department, assuming a $15 per hour average wage means the speed limit could cost the economy between $20 billion and $30 billion a year in lost output.

Calls for a 55 mph speed limit -- and for that matter most other government energy conservation plans, such as urging people to ride a bus or a bicycle rather than driving a car -- reflect a mindset that oil and gasoline are more valuable than human time.

But America is not running out of energy. We have potentially hundreds of years of oil and natural gas and coal supplies in America alone, if Congress would only let us drill for it. What is in short supply -- the only truly finite resource, as the late economist Julian Simon taught us -- is the time each of us spends on this earth. And most of us don't want to spend it sitting longer than we have to in traffic.

Mr. Moore is the senior economics writer for The Wall Street Journal editorial board.
This was from the opinion section but seems to have been taken to the floor.
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Post by Vympel »

But America is not running out of energy. We have potentially hundreds of years of oil and natural gas and coal supplies in America alone, if Congress would only let us drill for it. What is in short supply -- the only truly finite resource, as the late economist Julian Simon taught us -- is the time each of us spends on this earth. And most of us don't want to spend it sitting longer than we have to in traffic.
What a fucking dickhead. I don't need to say anything more erudite than that.
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Post by Mr Bean »

More to the point as pointed out in a previous thread, the 55 mile per hour limit only made sense when cars were most fuel efficent around that speed, most cars built after 1990 have a "sweet spot" for fuel efficiency anywhere from 60 Mph to 73 Mph when they get the best gas millage.

Ignoring the dumbass bit about "Lolz infinte fuel supply" he is basicly right about the traffic thing. I remember that shit all the time at DC(There is no godamn stop sign at the end of a highway on-ramp!) and little old ladies doing 50 while traffic is doing 70 on a 55 Mph road(Saw it every day on 275) heck I saw in Ohio, I saw it in Florida when one lane is doing much less than another those that follow traffic guidelines(Stay right unless passing) have to do multiple lane changes to avoid the slow moving cars else they need slam on the breaks both of which are bad from a safety prospective. In a perfect world all cars are within five mph of the same speed which makes lane changing accidents less likely (They can always not look but unless they panic it's not going to be anything but a tap) and makes slam on the breaks things much less likely as there is little need.

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Post by Phantasee »

I can't imagine driving on a highway in a country as crowded as the United States, particularly the Eastern half. So much congestion! I understand that in a city, but when it's so built up like the East Coast is, it's practically one city, isn't it? Wide open plains like we have in Alberta and Saskatchewan make the driving a lot less hectic (but then, we have nowhere to go).
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Post by CaptainZoidberg »

I think we should lower the national speed limit to make electric cars more economically viable.
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Post by Ma Deuce »

CaptainZoidberg wrote:I think we should lower the national speed limit to make electric cars more economically viable.
There's no reason a properly engineered electric car can't be made to drive at current highway speeds: Hell, even the EV1 could hit 80 mph. In order to make the highway speed limits low enough so they're safe for a lot of the current "neighborhood electric vehicles" (most of which are built by very small companies that don't have a lot of money for R&D, much less mass production), you'd have to lower highway speeds to those currently found on residential streets. Lowering speed limits that drastically on arteries that are already at or near maximum capacity is not a good idea.

Rather, the solution would be to offer significant government incentives for major automakers to develop electric cars, as well as rebates for customers who buy them.
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Post by Admiral Valdemar »

For EVs, they should focus more on battery life and size rather than top speed. Electric drives offer far superior torque and therefore acceleration, which is really all you need to get a decent highway car with a legally acceptable top speed (who the hell needs to go 150 MPH?).

This lower speed limit is indeed redundant given modern car design and speed laws already in place. 60-70 us more than enough to be both efficient mechanically and by traffic order.
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Post by Sea Skimmer »

Morons, with modern cars we should be raising speed limits, not lowering them to save gas. Just because 55mph saved gas with two ton cars with 100hp carbureted engines and the aerodynamics of a polished brick does not mean the same is true today. Factor in higher congestion since now more cars must use the same road at once and savings will be nonexistent, assuming consumption doesn’t actually rise. For many modern vehicles 45-55 is actually about the worst possible range of speeds for economy.

No one follows speed limits anyway, so its just another demonstration of the ‘quick solution’ retard mentality Congress has on energy policy
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Post by Starglider »

Sea Skimmer wrote:Just because 55mph saved gas with two ton cars with 100hp carbureted engines and the aerodynamics of a polished brick does not mean the same is true today.
You've said this before but you still haven't backed it up with a source. Meanwhile the EPA still claims that the graph looks like this;

Image

and here's a test done by a car magazine with various modern cars;

Image

Now, can you refute that or not?
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Post by Admiral Valdemar »

Good to see the speeds I take (55 MPH on main roads, 60 on motorway) are giving me the results I thought I was getting. I've known many people complain about fuel costs, not only because they have bigger cars, but because they drive like maniacs e.g. pushing over 70, rapid stop-start accelerating between junctions or bends, etc.

Would be nice to have such data for all makes and models, though, and with litres/100 km, not that other silly system.
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Post by Phantasee »

Wait, the Opel Zafira in cyan, that's a diesel, right? You're telling me a VW with a diesel and an Opel with a diesel will give me better mileage than a Prius?

Is this common for diesel engines in cars? Fuck hybrid, I'm going diesel, if this is true.
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Post by Sikon »

In the 1970s, the cars of the time had typically around 13% less fuel efficiency at 65 mph than at 55 mph. Yet, even then, studies had concluded that the lower speed limits did not result in reduction of national highway fuel consumption by more than merely about 2% ... not remotely close to 13%.

Why? One of the factors is that lower speed limits mean more time is spent traveling on the road.
a lower speed limit means Americans would spend two billion extra hours on the road
More cars still on the road at a given time can lead to additional congestion. The nominal benefit of more fuel efficiency from ideal mpg versus mph charts is primarily countered by other factors like that in reality.

Besides, today is not the 1970s, and modern vehicles are more efficient at higher speeds. The following chart illustrates that; there is not available data updated for 2008, but one can guess at it, given the trends as more older vehicle designs have been phased out:

Image

When savings were only 2% of highway fuel consumption even with the vehicles of three decades ago, one would be talking about no more than around 1% reduction today at most, even if the increased number of vehicles still on the roads enroute to their destinations at a given time didn't lead to enough extra stop-and-go to cancel that entirely.

U.S. oil consumption in the transportation sector is about 17% of total world oil consumption, so one is talking about ~ 0.2% nominal reduction in world oil consumption from a U.S. speed limit change, at most, if any net reduction at all.

At least it probably won't happen. A moderate majority of the public does realize that speed limits should vary as appropriate by location rather than a simplistic nationwide 55-mph cap:
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 59% of voters oppose the lower speed limit and 34% support it. Democrats are fairly evenly divided on the proposal with 43% in favor and 49% opposed. Republicans oppose the lower speed limit by a two-to-one margin and unaffiliated voters oppose it by a three-to-one margin. [...]

Just 26% of voters believe that slower driving will lead to lower gas prices. Sixty-one percent (61%) say it will not.
From here.

And right they are about gas prices, as nobody would see that great difference from at most around a 0.2% change in oil demand.
a lower speed limit means Americans would spend two billion extra hours on the road, or that, according to the Labor Department, assuming a $15 per hour average wage means the speed limit could cost the economy between $20 billion and $30 billion a year in lost output.
Yes, on the order of $200-$300 billion equivalent economic cost per decade if such was implemented now.

Even with 1970s vehicles, the speed limit reduction only saved, as the article mentions, around 0.167 million barrels a day or just 0.06 billion barrels a year, despite all of its economic cost.

Spend $200 to $300 billion in a decade in economic cost to theoretically maybe reduce world oil consumption by around 0.2%, if at all? Is that an intelligent idea?

For that economic expense, one could instead convert U.S. electricity generation from 20% nuclear to become mostly nuclear power. Or one could get around 3+ billion barrels of synthetic oil produced by thermal depolymerization at around $80 a barrel. Or one could produce ~ 100+ billion gallons of cellulosic ethanol from forestry and agricultural waste at up to several dollars a gallon. Etc.

That reducing speed limits to 55-mph maximum nationwide is seriously proposed as if superior to other measures illustrates how little a substantial number of voters (and their representatives) are capable of quantitatively comparing costs versus benefits, objectively outside of ideology.
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Post by Starglider »

Phantasee wrote:Wait, the Opel Zafira in cyan, that's a diesel, right? You're telling me a VW with a diesel and an Opel with a diesel will give me better mileage than a Prius?
Easily, for highway driving. A Prius only makes sense if you do a lot of a) stop-start city driving and/or b) short trips with the engine cold.
Is this common for diesel engines in cars?
Yes. For an amusingly over-the-top Prius review that points this out, see here.
Besides, today is not the 1970s, and modern vehicles are more efficient at higher speeds. The following chart illustrates that; there is not available data updated for 2008, but one can guess at it, given the trends as more older vehicle designs have been phased out:
That's bullshit. The 1997 line still peaks at 55mph and shows over a 20% increase in fuel consumption at 70mph. I've posted actual data from mid-2000 cars that also peak at 55mph. Your 'guess' is unsupported by any reasoning other than a simple linear extrapolation - and since progress in ICE technology has stagnated (you can only go to computer controlled fuel injection once) and the laws of physics haven't changed there is no basis for this.

If you want to refute '55mph is optimal' or '70mph uses at least 20mph more fuel' post some actual test data, not 'hmm maybe possibly by 2008 we might be at this line?'.

I don't personally believe that dropping the speed limit to 55mph is worth the hassle either, but as far as I can tell '70mph+ is the optimum car driving speed' is pure wishful thinking.
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Post by Broomstick »

Starglider wrote:
Besides, today is not the 1970s, and modern vehicles are more efficient at higher speeds. The following chart illustrates that; there is not available data updated for 2008, but one can guess at it, given the trends as more older vehicle designs have been phased out:
That's bullshit. The 1997 line still peaks at 55mph and shows over a 20% increase in fuel consumption at 70mph. I've posted actual data from mid-2000 cars that also peak at 55mph. Your 'guess' is unsupported by any reasoning other than a simple linear extrapolation - and since progress in ICE technology has stagnated (you can only go to computer controlled fuel injection once) and the laws of physics haven't changed there is no basis for this.
It's not just the engine, stupid.

Since the 1970's cars have gotten lighter thanks to material engineering. Less weight means less fuel burned to move a given distance or speed. Also computer-aided design - something virtually unheard of in the 1970's - has made it much easier to come up with efficient, aerodynamic designs. Less wind resistance means better fuel economy whether you're talking airplanes or automobiles (this has also been applied to heavy hauling trucks, too). In particular, more aerodynamic design has contributed significantly to fuel efficiency gains since 1970.

Now, that doesn't answer the question as to whether or not lowering the speed limit to 55 today will make a significant difference in overall fuel consumption since there are human factors at work here and not just machines.
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Post by Sikon »

Starglider wrote:Your 'guess' is unsupported by any reasoning other than a simple linear extrapolation - and since progress in ICE technology has stagnated (you can only go to computer controlled fuel injection once) and the laws of physics haven't changed there is no basis for this.
Average fuel efficiency of U.S. passenger cars on the road went from 21.2 to 22.4 mpg between the years of 1996 and 2006, a 6% increase over ten years. (2007 figure for that not yet available).

Average new vehicle fuel efficiency of U.S. passenger cars went from 28.7 to 31.3 mpg for 1997-model versus 2007-model vehicles, which is a 9% increase.
Starglider wrote:
Sikon wrote:Besides, today is not the 1970s, and modern vehicles are more efficient at higher speeds. The following chart illustrates that; there is not available data updated for 2008, but one can guess at it, given the trends as more older vehicle designs have been phased out:
The 1997 line still peaks at 55mph and shows over a 20% increase in fuel consumption at 70mph.
As illustrated in the graph, a typical 1997 vehicle obtained ~ 29 mpg at 65 mph, far more efficient at higher speed than the ~ 16 mpg obtained at that speed by a 1973 vehicle. The 1997 plot shows about 9% less mpg at 65 mph compared to 55 mph (e.g. 251 versus 277 pixels from the base line) while about 17% less mpg at 70 mph compared to 55 mph.

More importantly, even when there were 1970s vehicles, Senator Warner's own studies only concluded a 2% net increase in highway fuel efficiency after the countering factors in the real-world.

The same factors which made the ~ 13% nominal efficiency gain for 1970s vehicles going at 55 mph instead of 65 mph become 11% less or about 2% on average ... also result in the 9% nominal efficiency gain for 1997 vehicles at 65-mph versus 55-mph approaching still closer to zero. One of those factors can be congestion with more time spent on the roads to reach where one is going, more vehicles on the road at a time, and more vehicles still traveling on an unit length of road. And that's not even considering 2008 vehicles.

As previously discussed, the actual net fuel savings in the real-world is close to 1% (if not a negative number) of U.S. highway fuel consumption, far from having over 20% savings.

Meanwhile, the speed limit decrease causes around $200 to $300 billion in a decade in economic harm, to nominally change world oil consumption by ~ 0.2% ... compared to better uses of that same amount of economic output such as getting on the order of 10+%/decade of U.S. gasoline consumption converted to synthetic fuel from biomass waste or using $200 to $300 billion to convert the U.S. electricity supply to primarily nuclear power, etc.
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Post by Sikon »

Sikon wrote:One of those factors [...]
Of course, there are other factors too. If a speed limit on a given stretch of road is lowered from 65 mph to 55 mph, that doesn't necessarily mean the average driver really drops by 10 mph in speed. For example, maybe I drop from 66 mph to 61 mph on average, just a 5 mph instead of a 10 mph difference.

But the existence of other factors in addition to congestion doesn't hurt my point. The important thing is the net result after all factors, as studies conclude from observations.
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Post by Ariphaos »

I did an analysis looking at the rate of change of economic growth - in the spring of 1995, the US economy received an increase of about $100 billion to its GDP, as if recovering from a minor recession that never happened. I believe it was the largest single-quarter increase that did not actually follow a recession, but I'd have to dig out the spreadsheet again to be sure.

"Near-infinite fuel supply" is of course idiotic, though I am more optimistic about the future of biodiesel than most here. But people spending time in cars means people are not being otherwise productive, and more cars on a road at a time means increased traffic jams, which also mean that at some point lowering speed limits will increase fuel usage.
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