American Infidel wrote:This report only deals with the outer continental shelf. If I were trying to discredit the drilling option, I would go with a report that also takes other sources into consideration over this one.
Sigh:
Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting,
Energy Information Administration (EIA) May 2008 report wrote:The opening of the ANWR 1002 Area to oil and natural gas development is projected to increase domestic crude oil production starting in 2018. In the mean ANWR oil resource case, additional oil production resulting from the opening of ANWR reaches 780,000 barrels per day in 2027 and then declines to 710,000 barrels per day in 2030. In the low and high ANWR oil resource cases, additional oil production resulting from the opening of ANWR peaks in 2028 at 510,000 and 1.45 million barrels per day, respectively. Between 2018 and 2030, cumulative additional oil production is 2.6 billion barrels for the mean oil resource case, while the low and high resource cases project a cumulative additional oil production of 1.9 and 4.3 billion barrels, respectively.
Crude oil imports are projected to decline by about one barrel for every barrel of ANWR oil production. Opening ANWR results in the lowest oil import dependency levels during the 2022 through 2026 time frame, when oil import dependency falls to the minimum values of 46 and 49 percent for the high and low oil resource cases, respectively. During that timeframe, the mean resource case and AEO2008 reference case project an average oil import dependency of 48 and 51 percent, respectively. Because ANWR oil production is declining after 2028, U.S. oil dependency rises to 51 percent in 2030 in the mean resource case, compared to 54 percent in the AEO2008 reference case. The high and low resource cases project a 2030 oil import dependency of 48 percent and 52 percent, respectively.
Additional oil production resulting from the opening of ANWR improves the U.S. balance of trade. Cumulative expenditures on foreign crude oil and liquid fuels between 2018 and 2030 are reduced by $202 billion dollars (2006 dollars) in the mean oil resource case and reduced by $135 and $327 billion dollars in the low and high oil resource cases, respectively.
Additional oil production resulting from the opening of ANWR would be only a small portion of total world oil production, and would likely be offset in part by somewhat lower production outside the United States. The opening of ANWR is projected to have its largest oil price reduction impacts as follows: a reduction in low-sulfur, light crude oil prices of $0.41 per barrel (2006 dollars) in 2026 for the low oil resource case, $0.75 per barrel in 2025 for the mean oil resource case, and $1.44 per barrel in 2027 for the high oil resource case, relative to the reference case.
ANWR Production Uncertainties
There is much uncertainty regarding the impact of opening ANWR on U.S. oil production and imports, due to several factors:
• The size of the underlying resource base. There is little direct knowledge regarding the petroleum geology of the ANWR region. The USGS oil resource estimates are based largely on the oil productivity of geologic formations that exist in the neighboring State lands and which continue into ANWR. Consequently, there is considerable uncertainty regarding both the size and quality of the oil resources that exist in ANWR. Thus, the potential ultimate oil recovery and potential yearly production are highly uncertain.
• Oil field sizes. The size of the oil fields found in ANWR is one factor that will determine the rate at which ANWR oil resources are developed and produced. If the reservoirs are larger than expected, then production would be greater in the 2018 through 2025 timeframe. Similarly, if the reservoirs are smaller than expected, then production would be less.
• The quality of the oil and the characteristics of the oil reservoirs. Oil field production rates are also determined by the quality of oil found, e.g., viscosity and paraffin content, and the field’s reservoir characteristics, i.e., its depth, permeability, faulting, and water saturation. This analysis assumes oil quality and reservoir characteristics similar to those associated with the Prudhoe Bay field. If, for example, the oil discovered in ANWR has a considerably higher viscosity than the Prudhoe Bay field oil, e.g., over 10,000 centipoise, then oil production rates would be lower than projected in this analysis.
• Environmental considerations. Environmental restrictions could affect access for exploration and development. Also, legal challenges to the BLM’s leasing program and to its approval of seismic data collection and of specific oil field projects could significantly delay ANWR oil development and production.
Although there is considerable uncertainty regarding future ANWR oil production, the current upper limit to ANWR oil production is the transportation capacity of TAPS. TAPS has maximum throughput capacity of 2.136 million barrels per day. 3 The high ANWR oil resource case comes closest to reaching this pipeline capacity, when total North Slope oil production peaks at 1.9 million barrels per day in 2026.
That report, available through the
Centre For American Progress website (you click on the .pdf link labeled "increase domestic crude oil production starting in 2018") lays out a case showing that ANWR won't be the black gold strike it's cheerleaders say it will, that it's effect on prices will be negligible, and that it will take a decade at least to bring online —which means it will do
dick for consumers in the long-term and less than
dick for them in the short-term.
The plain and simple fact is that oil is a dying option for this nation's energy needs —a reality the GOP consistently refuses to deal with.
Really, who do you think you're dealing with around here?
