Trouble in South Ossetia escalates

[CaptainChewbacca]

Why does Putin always look like he's five second away from snapping someones neck when he's in a photo with Bush?

He is, just not necessarily Bush. He always looks like that.

[Vympel]

The Estonian president made a statement yesterday saying that he thinks the Russian operation in South Ossetia was planned far in advance for precisely a situation like this so that they could move instantly when they got an excuse. I am not as familiar with the disposition of Russian military forces in the region as some others here, but from where I'm standing, he does have a point. A coordinated combined air, sea and land offensive such as we are seeing doesn't happen spontaneously without preparatory activity, unless those preparations were gradually put in place in advance so that everything can get moving as soon as they get a green light.

I don't really buy it. The 58th Army (and especially the units that launched the counter-attack first) is a high-readiness unit and they likely ad plans for this sort of contingency irrespective of any dastardly plan to exact vengeance on Georgia. If they really wanted to do so, the 58th would've been first in line for top of the line equipment from way back when, instead, friendly fire hazards about with BMP-1s/2s and T-72Bs on both sides, and the perverse situation of Georgia having thermal-sight equipped upgraded T-72AVs and the Russians having no such capability.

Of course, the Russians have destroyed all those T-72s now ... maybe they just decided the VVS would make up any shortfall in terms of T-90s and BMP-3s.

[Androsphinx]

The Estonian president made a statement yesterday saying that he thinks the Russian operation in South Ossetia was planned far in advance for precisely a situation like this so that they could move instantly when they got an excuse. I am not as familiar with the disposition of Russian military forces in the region as some others here, but from where I'm standing, he does have a point. A coordinated combined air, sea and land offensive such as we are seeing doesn't happen spontaneously without preparatory activity, unless those preparations were gradually put in place in advance so that everything can get moving as soon as they get a green light.

I would be astonished if there weren't Russian plans to invade Georgia. As for the timing and disposition of troops, the Russians have only been able to do this because invaded S. Ossetia. That's not the sort of thing one can just arrange to happen.

Of course, the Estonians have their own disputed border with Russia, so are understandably concerned for their own reasons.

[CaptainChewbacca]

America has plans to invade the VATICAN, I don't see why its so hard to believe Russia has a plan for 'No more mister nice guy'.

[K. A. Pital]

Of course Russia has a war plan with Georgia, and considering the amount of troops in the Caucasus, one easily executed. Hell we almost came to war during the Pankissi gorge crisis (which was still under Shevarnadze IIRC).

More than that, Russian response was inadequate. Most of the people from the *cough* KGB *cough* whom I know report that Russian PCs mistook the huge offensive by Georgia for the usual "let's bomb Tshinvali a little", by the time Georgians were shouting "Victory!" in Tshinvali it was already too late.

The higher echelons figured out the situation around 6+ hours after the Georgian "blitzkrieg", which is really a lot of "nap" time.

Frankly, if we bombed the crap out of all Georgian military bases the same instant they moved troops to storm Tshinvali, I'd have more respect for our military planners. Better reaction time. Less possibilities for the war in SO itself.

[Thanas]

The full Georgian OOB lists 243 tanks but I've heard of only 165 in theatre, I would guess that means the other 78 were in Iraq?

Or non operational. The number of tanks varies wildly according to what OOB you believe, I have seen numbers ranging from the low 80s up to 200.

There seems to be no definite figure.

[Siege]

It is terribly childish of me, but part of me can't stop grinning gleefully every time I see George W. Bush stampfoot in impotent rage over this "dramatic and brutal escalation" of violence on the part Russia. Oh no, a superpower is giving the UN the finger and doing whatever the hell it pleases -- and it isn't the USA! The humanity!

What's that saying again? "What comes around, goes around"? Sounds about right to me. Of course the immense irony of his statements is probably lost on Mr. Bush entirely, but still.

[Ubiquitous]

It is terribly childish of me, but part of me can't stop grinning gleefully every time I see George W. Bush stampfoot in impotent rage over this "dramatic and brutal escalation" of violence on the part Russia. Oh no, a superpower is giving the UN the finger and doing whatever the hell it pleases -- and it isn't the USA! The humanity!

What's that saying again? "What comes around, goes around"? Sounds about right to me. Of course the immense irony of his statements is probably lost on Mr. Bush entirely, but still.

It's not simply childish of you, it is in-humane and brutal. I for one am pretty sick that everywhere on the internet I look for a proper debate on this, it has turned into yet an other America thread, when the reality is this has very little to do with the US and everything to do with a very real and scary change of tactics by a power that is dangerously out of control and possibly lurching the world back to the Cold War days. It shows how dangerously out of touch some people are that they can no longer differentiate right or wrong: if it gives America a bloody nose, it must be good and should be defended.

[DPDarkPrimus]

America has plans to invade the VATICAN, I don't see why its so hard to believe Russia has a plan for 'No more mister nice guy'.

What would that be?

"Deploy 2 tanks, 1 F-22, and 200 ground units. March from one side of the city to the other."?

[Tiriol]

It is terribly childish of me, but part of me can't stop grinning gleefully every time I see George W. Bush stampfoot in impotent rage over this "dramatic and brutal escalation" of violence on the part Russia. Oh no, a superpower is giving the UN the finger and doing whatever the hell it pleases -- and it isn't the USA! The humanity!

What's that saying again? "What comes around, goes around"? Sounds about right to me. Of course the immense irony of his statements is probably lost on Mr. Bush entirely, but still.

Personally I do not care one bit about what Bush or McCain or Obama or anyone else over there thinks of this or how ridiculous USA or anyone else in the Western world looks because of this. What I do care about, though, is that however you look at it, many innocents have died and suffered and they will continue to die and suffer because of Georgia's and Russia's actions.

[Siege]

It shows how dangerously out of touch some people are that they can no longer differentiate right or wrong: if it gives America a bloody nose, it must be good and should be defended.

Right. Surely you can produce the quote where I said that the war as a whole was "good and should be defended"? Oh, wait, you can't, 'cause that is not something I've claimed. Nice strawman though. This whole affair is a truly unfortunate mess, and I'd rather it hadn't happened in the first place, but it has and so I might as well appreciate the irony whilst it lasts.

[Admiral Valdemar]

Medvedev has called a cessation of all military actions.

[hongi]

Looks like I was wrong about the whole Russia looking to smash Georgia into itty-bitty bits. My bad.

[Broomstick]

The Estonian president made a statement yesterday saying that he thinks the Russian operation in South Ossetia was planned far in advance for precisely a situation like this so that they could move instantly when they got an excuse.

Like others, I'd be astonished if Russia DIDN'T have a plan for this sort of thing, and no doubt for every other nation bordering it. All the more reason Georgia was stupid to give Russia a bloody nose.

[Androsphinx]

More excellent coverage from McClatchy, highlights in italics with some interesting examples of the Law of Unintended Consequences in bold

Why these people aren't the only respected news source in America, I don't know

WASHINGTON — Bush administration officials, worried by what they saw as a series of provocative Russian actions, repeatedly warned Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili to avoid giving the Kremlin an excuse to intervene in his country militarily, U.S. officials said Monday.

But in the end, the warnings failed to stop the Georgian president — a Bush favorite — from launching an attack last week that on Monday seemed likely to end not only in his country’s military humiliation but complete occupation by Russian forces.

The cost of the fighting in lives has yet to be tallied. But President Bush on Monday made it clear that the outcome was sure to mark a turning point in Russia’s relations with the West. It might also prove costly for the West’s relationship with the budding democracies of Eastern Europe, which now must contemplate a world where the United States could do little to protect a close ally in the face of a determined Russian onslaught.

"Russia has invaded a sovereign neighboring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people," President Bush proclaimed after returning from China. "Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century."

"These actions jeopardize Russia's relations with the United States and Europe," Bush said. "It's time for Russia to be true to its word to act to end this crisis."

Pentagon officials said that despite having 130 trainers assigned to Georgia, they had no advance notice of Georgia’s sudden move last Thursday to send thousands of Georgian troops into South Ossetia to capture that province's capital, Tskhinvali.

Not only did the U.S. troops working alongside their Georgian counterparts not see any signs of an impending invasion, Georgian officials did not notify the U.S. military before the incursion, a senior U.S. defense official told McClatchy.

But the Bush administration had fretted for months over what officials saw as intensifying Russian moves that it feared were aimed at provoking Georgia into a conflict over South Ossetia or Abkhazia, another secessionist province.

Russia has been angry over Georgia's close links with Washington, and has been determined to stop the admission to NATO of its former vassal, which is located on strategic energy and transportation routes to Central Asia.

The Russian actions against Georgia "seemed designed to provoke a Georgian over-reaction," said a senior U.S. official. "We have always counseled restraint to the Georgians."

Some experts, however, wondered whether the administration might have inadvertently sent Saakashvili mixed messages that would have led him to believe he could count on U.S. support if he got into trouble.

Bush lavished praise on the U.S.-educated Georgian leader as a "beacon of democracy." He gave military training and equipment to Georgia, which supplied the third-largest contingent to the U.S.-led coalition in Iraq, and had promised NATO membership, they said. He visited the country in 2005 and addressed a huge crowd from the same podium as Saakashvili.

"The Russians have clearly overreacted but President Saakashvili . . . for some reason seems to think he has a hall pass from this administration," said former Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage.

U.S. officials had been warning of Russian actions designed to provoke Georgia for months.

In June, Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Fried told the House Foreign Affairs Committee that Russia's "unremitting" political and economic pressure included closing its border with Georgia, suspending air and transportation links, imposing an embargo on Georgian agricultural exports and allowing Russian banks to operate "virtually unregulated" with unlicensed Abkhazian banks.

Earlier this year, he said, Russia strengthened official ties with separatist leaders in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, shot down an unmanned Georgian surveillance drone, sent heavy combat troops with artillery as peacekeepers to Abkhazia and dispatched military personnel to repair a rail line without Georgia's permission.

He also said senior Russian officials were assigned to the internationally unrecognized self-declared governments in the two enclaves and that senior Russian military officers operated with the separatists' military forces.

The senior U.S. official said the Russians had also dragged their feet on a recent German-led effort to head off a conflict.

A "parade" of U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, visited Tbilisi to urge Saakashvili to avoid giving the Kremlin to act, a State Department officials said.

At the same time, U.S. officials said that they believed they had an understanding with Russia that any response to Georgian military action would be limited to South Ossetia.

"We knew they were going to go crack heads. We told them again and again not to do this," the State Department official said. "We thought we had an understanding with the Russians that any response would be South Ossetia-focused. Clearly it's not."

One problem in under-estimating the Russian response, another U.S. official said, was "a dearth of intelligence assets in the region."

U.S. "national technical means," the official name for spy satellites and other technology, are "pretty well consumed by Iraq, Afghanistan and now Pakistan," the official said, and there was only limited monitoring of Russian military movements toward the Georgian border.

Additionally, the United States had lost access to vital information when Russia dropped out of the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty in December to protest U.S. plans to build missile defense sites in Europe.

Under the treaty, Russia had been required to exchange reports on troop, armor and aircraft deployments with the United States and other members on a monthly basis. But once Russia dropped out, that information was no longer available.

"I wouldn't say we were blind," the official said. "I would say that we mostly were focused elsewhere, unlike during the Cold War, when we'd see a single Soviet armor battalion move. So, yes, the size and scope of the Russian move has come as something of a surprise."

Now, the United States is left with few options for countering what it calls Russia's "disproportionate" response to Georgia if the Kremlin persists in spurning a U.S.-backed European plan calling for a ceasefire, a pullback of all forces, an accord on the non-use of force and deployment of international monitors.

The delicacy of the situation was underscored by the U.S. decision to leave its military advisers in Georgia, though, with Georgia's troops no longer in Iraq, there was little for the advisers to do.

"While their utility in country may be very limited, removing them might inadvertently signal to the world that we are abandoning our ally, which we most certainly are not," said a senior U.S. military official.

[Coyote]

America has plans to invade the VATICAN, I don't see why its so hard to believe Russia has a plan for 'No more mister nice guy'.

What would that be?

"Deploy 2 tanks, 1 F-22, and 200 ground units. March from one side of the city to the other."?

"And make sure our infantry protect their bums."

[bobalot]

The Georgians started this thing and got totally owned. The anti-Russian bias int the media is amazing. Little Georgia being bullied by the Russians. What a load of shit. All these media articles are titled "Russia invades Georgia. 1500 dead." A casual observer wouldn't realize that the Georgians are responsible for most of the deaths. The title is technically true, but deliberately misleading.

Things were fine for years until Saakashvili started to talk shit about unification by force. It was only then, the border clashes really started up. A surprise attack coinciding with the opening day of the Olympics to draw away the worlds attention is obviously the mark of a "righteous cause".

These regions broke away more than 15 years ago. They are culturally and enthnically very different from the Georgians. They have far more in common with their neighbors in the north. The catalyst for their breakaway back then was the Georgians banning their regional parties( Source). They have been running their own affairs without hassle for a long time. It's not like the these separatist enclaves are recent Russian creations (as some seem have suggested). They have more or less been independent since 1991 for fucks sake.

A indiscriminate massed artillery assault on a densely populated city of their own supposed citizens, killing hundreds (if not thousands) is apparently something that a freedom loving democratic country like Georgia would do. The Ossetian refugees know real safety lies, they are all headed into Russia. Not that our media deems this piece of information worthy of reporting. They are happy to take the casualty figures and word their articles to imply that the Russians caused them.

The Russians see hundreds of people they consider to be basically Russian and their own peacekeepers getting killed (who were enforcing an agreement that Georgia itself agreed to.),and decide to intervene rather than looking like total pussies.

Apparently they are the bad guys if the media is to be believed.

Saakashvili who has jailed political opponents (anybody who opposes him is a "Russian stooge" and therefore a traitor,even people who formerly worked with him), charging other political opponents with trumped charges of treason, shut down opposition media and violently broken up opposition demonstrations is the good guy.

You can almost smell the bullshit factory otherwise known as the Western media.

[fgalkin]

It is terribly childish of me, but part of me can't stop grinning gleefully every time I see George W. Bush stampfoot in impotent rage over this "dramatic and brutal escalation" of violence on the part Russia. Oh no, a superpower is giving the UN the finger and doing whatever the hell it pleases -- and it isn't the USA! The humanity!

What's that saying again? "What comes around, goes around"? Sounds about right to me. Of course the immense irony of his statements is probably lost on Mr. Bush entirely, but still.

It's not simply childish of you, it is in-humane and brutal. I for one am pretty sick that everywhere on the internet I look for a proper debate on this, it has turned into yet an other America thread, when the reality is this has very little to do with the US and everything to do with a very real and scary change of tactics by a power that is dangerously out of control and possibly lurching the world back to the Cold War days. It shows how dangerously out of touch some people are that they can no longer differentiate right or wrong: if it gives America a bloody nose, it must be good and should be defended.

Oh really? The US is in this because the US is incapable of having allies, only puppets. Obviously Saakashvilli made the same mistake that many others did before him.

And "a power that is dangerously out of control and possibly lurching the world back to the Cold War days." What power would that be, precisely? Maybe you meant the UK, because it sure as hell ain't Russia.

And Medvedev has already called for an end to the fighting.

Have a very nice day.
-fgalkin

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

I never knew the CF in Europe treaty actually meant something with reference to the current conflict. This actually means the Russians might have calculated the move quite well.

[Vympel]

I'm not convinced CFE would've given them much information for them to twig, it's not like there's any reason to believe 58th Army received significant reinforcement or new / additional equipment. All stock standard, late-Soviet stuff.

[Dahak]

Apparently they are the bad guys if the media is to be believed.

Saakashvili who has jailed political opponents (anybody who opposes him is a "Russian stooge" and therefore a traitor,even people who formerly worked with him), charging other political opponents with trumped charges of treason, shut down opposition media and violently broken up opposition demonstrations is the good guy.

You can almost smell the bullshit factory otherwise known as the Western media.

I wouldn't be so quick to generalise the reports from *all* "Western" media.
In my opinion the coverage of German media on this conflict is more or less balanced (apart from maybe some extremes to either side...).
Most articles I read don't blame one side exclusively and no one ignores the fact that Georgia basically pulled the trigger on this.
Of course, there's some speculation that Russia might have prodded the reaction in this direction, but not like "Russians are masterminds behind this whole thing and made Georgia to attack".

[Coyote]

NBC last night on their news lead summed up the war and did, in fact, point out that it was the Georgians that invaded S. Ossetia, and the Russians counter-struck.

Of course now the overall flavor of the reporting is that while Georgia may have struck first, the Russians response was "disproportionate". Oh, well. I personally have an idea of just how damn destructive potential really exists when armies are massed for combined arms action, so I feel the Russian response has actually been fairly restrained, given the terrain and number/type of forces involved...

[Broomstick]

The Georgians started this thing and got totally owned. The anti-Russian bias int the media is amazing.

Which is ironic in the US, given how often we are the victim of anti-American bias ourselves. The Big Empire is always in the wrong, be it US or Russia.

[ray245]

The Georgians started this thing and got totally owned. The anti-Russian bias int the media is amazing.

Which is ironic in the US, given how often we are the victim of anti-American bias ourselves. The Big Empire is always in the wrong, be it US or Russia.

Although it is more or less impossible to justify if the actions done by any country is morally wrong or right in alot of circumstances...

[Darth Wong]

The Georgians started this thing and got totally owned. The anti-Russian bias int the media is amazing.

Which is ironic in the US, given how often we are the victim of anti-American bias ourselves. The Big Empire is always in the wrong, be it US or Russia.

Russia had far, far better justification for what they did here than America did in Iraq.