Freddie & Fannie bailout details

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Freddie & Fannie bailout details

Post by J »

It's now a done deal, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae have been declared insolvent and taken over by the government.

Department of Treasury press release
Washington, DC-- Good morning. I'm joined here by Jim Lockhart, Director of the new independent regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, FHFA.

In July, Congress granted the Treasury, the Federal Reserve and FHFA new authorities with respect to the GSEs, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Since that time, we have closely monitored financial market and business conditions and have analyzed in great detail the current financial condition of the GSEs – including the ability of the GSEs to weather a variety of market conditions going forward. As a result of this work, we have determined that it is necessary to take action.

Since this difficult period for the GSEs began, I have clearly stated three critical objectives: providing stability to financial markets, supporting the availability of mortgage finance, and protecting taxpayers – both by minimizing the near term costs to the taxpayer and by setting policymakers on a course to resolve the systemic risk created by the inherent conflict in the GSE structure.

Based on what we have learned about these institutions over the last four weeks – including what we learned about their capital requirements – and given the condition of financial markets today, I concluded that it would not have been in the best interest of the taxpayers for Treasury to simply make an equity investment in these enterprises in their current form.

The four steps we are announcing today are the result of detailed and thorough collaboration between FHFA, the U.S. Treasury, and the Federal Reserve.

We examined all options available, and determined that this comprehensive and complementary set of actions best meets our three objectives of market stability, mortgage availability and taxpayer protection.

Throughout this process we have been in close communication with the GSEs themselves. I have also consulted with Members of Congress from both parties and I appreciate their support as FHFA, the Federal Reserve and the Treasury have moved to address this difficult issue.

Before I turn to Jim to discuss the action he is taking today, let me make clear that these two institutions are unique. They operate solely in the mortgage market and are therefore more exposed than other financial institutions to the housing correction. Their statutory capital requirements are thin and poorly defined as compared to other institutions. Nothing about our actions today in any way reflects a changed view of the housing correction or of the strength of other U.S. financial institutions.

***

I support the Director's decision as necessary and appropriate and had advised him that conservatorship was the only form in which I would commit taxpayer money to the GSEs.

I appreciate the productive cooperation we have received from the boards and the management of both GSEs. I attribute the need for today's action primarily to the inherent conflict and flawed business model embedded in the GSE structure, and to the ongoing housing correction. GSE managements and their Boards are responsible for neither. New CEOs supported by new non-executive Chairmen have taken over management of the enterprises, and we hope and expect that the vast majority of key professionals will remain in their jobs. I am particularly pleased that the departing CEOs, Dan Mudd and Dick Syron, have agreed to stay on for a period to help with the transition.

I have long said that the housing correction poses the biggest risk to our economy. It is a drag on our economic growth, and at the heart of the turmoil and stress for our financial markets and financial institutions. Our economy and our markets will not recover until the bulk of this housing correction is behind us. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are critical to turning the corner on housing. Therefore, the primary mission of these enterprises now will be to proactively work to increase the availability of mortgage finance, including by examining the guaranty fee structure with an eye toward mortgage affordability.

To promote stability in the secondary mortgage market and lower the cost of funding, the GSEs will modestly increase their MBS portfolios through the end of 2009. Then, to address systemic risk, in 2010 their portfolios will begin to be gradually reduced at the rate of 10 percent per year, largely through natural run off, eventually stabilizing at a lower, less risky size.

Treasury has taken three additional steps to complement FHFA's decision to place both enterprises in conservatorship. First, Treasury and FHFA have established Preferred Stock Purchase Agreements, contractual agreements between the Treasury and the conserved entities. Under these agreements, Treasury will ensure that each company maintains a positive net worth. These agreements support market stability by providing additional security and clarity to GSE debt holders – senior and subordinated – and support mortgage availability by providing additional confidence to investors in GSE mortgage backed securities. This commitment will eliminate any mandatory triggering of receivership and will ensure that the conserved entities have the ability to fulfill their financial obligations. It is more efficient than a one-time equity injection, because it will be used only as needed and on terms that Treasury has set. With this agreement, Treasury receives senior preferred equity shares and warrants that protect taxpayers. Additionally, under the terms of the agreement, common and preferred shareholders bear losses ahead of the new government senior preferred shares.

These Preferred Stock Purchase Agreements were made necessary by the ambiguities in the GSE Congressional charters, which have been perceived to indicate government support for agency debt and guaranteed MBS. Our nation has tolerated these ambiguities for too long, and as a result GSE debt and MBS are held by central banks and investors throughout the United States and around the world who believe them to be virtually risk-free. Because the U.S. Government created these ambiguities, we have a responsibility to both avert and ultimately address the systemic risk now posed by the scale and breadth of the holdings of GSE debt and MBS.

Market discipline is best served when shareholders bear both the risk and the reward of their investment. While conservatorship does not eliminate the common stock, it does place common shareholders last in terms of claims on the assets of the enterprise.

Similarly, conservatorship does not eliminate the outstanding preferred stock, but does place preferred shareholders second, after the common shareholders, in absorbing losses. The federal banking agencies are assessing the exposures of banks and thrifts to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The agencies believe that, while many institutions hold common or preferred shares of these two GSEs, only a limited number of smaller institutions have holdings that are significant compared to their capital.

The agencies encourage depository institutions to contact their primary federal regulator if they believe that losses on their holdings of Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac common or preferred shares, whether realized or unrealized, are likely to reduce their regulatory capital below "well capitalized." The banking agencies are prepared to work with the affected institutions to develop capital restoration plans consistent with the capital regulations.

Preferred stock investors should recognize that the GSEs are unlike any other financial institutions and consequently GSE preferred stocks are not a good proxy for financial institution preferred stock more broadly. By stabilizing the GSEs so they can better perform their mission, today's action should accelerate stabilization in the housing market, ultimately benefiting financial institutions. The broader market for preferred stock issuance should continue to remain available for well-capitalized institutions.

The second step Treasury is taking today is the establishment of a new secured lending credit facility which will be available to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Home Loan Banks. Given the combination of actions we are taking, including the Preferred Share Purchase Agreements, we expect the GSEs to be in a stronger position to fund their regular business activities in the capital markets. This facility is intended to serve as an ultimate liquidity backstop, in essence, implementing the temporary liquidity backstop authority granted by Congress in July, and will be available until those authorities expire in December 2009.

Finally, to further support the availability of mortgage financing for millions of Americans, Treasury is initiating a temporary program to purchase GSE MBS. During this ongoing housing correction, the GSE portfolios have been constrained, both by their own capital situation and by regulatory efforts to address systemic risk. As the GSEs have grappled with their difficulties, we've seen mortgage rate spreads to Treasuries widen, making mortgages less affordable for homebuyers. While the GSEs are expected to moderately increase the size of their portfolios over the next 15 months through prudent mortgage purchases, complementary government efforts can aid mortgage affordability. Treasury will begin this new program later this month, investing in new GSE MBS. Additional purchases will be made as deemed appropriate. Given that Treasury can hold these securities to maturity, the spreads between Treasury issuances and GSE MBS indicate that there is no reason to expect taxpayer losses from this program, and, in fact, it could produce gains. This program will also expire with the Treasury's temporary authorities in December 2009.

Together, this four part program is the best means of protecting our markets and the taxpayers from the systemic risk posed by the current financial condition of the GSEs. Because the GSEs are in conservatorship, they will no longer be managed with a strategy to maximize common shareholder returns, a strategy which historically encouraged risk-taking. The Preferred Stock Purchase Agreements minimize current cash outlays, and give taxpayers a large stake in the future value of these entities. In the end, the ultimate cost to the taxpayer will depend on the business results of the GSEs going forward. To that end, the steps we have taken to support the GSE debt and to support the mortgage market will together improve the housing market, the US economy and the GSEs' business outlook.

Through the four actions we have taken today, FHFA and Treasury have acted on the responsibilities we have to protect the stability of the financial markets, including the mortgage market, and to protect the taxpayer to the maximum extent possible.

And let me make clear what today's actions mean for Americans and their families. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are so large and so interwoven in our financial system that a failure of either of them would cause great turmoil in our financial markets here at home and around the globe. This turmoil would directly and negatively impact household wealth: from family budgets, to home values, to savings for college and retirement. A failure would affect the ability of Americans to get home loans, auto loans and other consumer credit and business finance. And a failure would be harmful to economic growth and job creation. That is why we have taken these actions today.

While we expect these four steps to provide greater stability and certainty to market participants and provide long-term clarity to investors in GSE debt and MBS securities, our collective work is not complete. At the end of next year, the Treasury temporary authorities will expire, the GSE portfolios will begin to gradually run off, and the GSEs will begin to pay the government a fee to compensate taxpayers for the on-going support provided by the Preferred Stock Purchase Agreements. Together, these factors should give momentum and urgency to the reform cause. Policymakers must view this next period as a "time out" where we have stabilized the GSEs while we decide their future role and structure.

Because the GSEs are Congressionally-chartered, only Congress can address the inherent conflict of attempting to serve both shareholders and a public mission. The new Congress and the next Administration must decide what role government in general, and these entities in particular, should play in the housing market. There is a consensus today that these enterprises pose a systemic risk and they cannot continue in their current form. Government support needs to be either explicit or non-existent, and structured to resolve the conflict between public and private purposes. And policymakers must address the issue of systemic risk. I recognize that there are strong differences of opinion over the role of government in supporting housing, but under any course policymakers choose, there are ways to structure these entities in order to address market stability in the transition and limit systemic risk and conflict of purposes for the long-term. We will make a grave error if we don't use this time out to permanently address the structural issues presented by the GSEs.

In the weeks to come, I will describe my views on long term reform. I look forward to engaging in that timely and necessary debate.

Federal Home Finance Agency press release (PDF File)
STATEMENT OF FHFA DIRECTOR JAMES B. LOCKHART
Good Morning
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac share the critical mission of providing stability and liquidity to the housing market. Between them, the Enterprises have $5.4 trillion of guaranteed mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and debt outstanding, which is equal to the publicly held debt of the United States. Their market share of all new mortgages reached over 80 percent earlier this year, but it is now falling. During the turmoil last year, they played a very important role in providing liquidity to the conforming mortgage market. That has required a very careful and delicate balance of mission and safety and soundness. A key component of this balance has been their ability to raise and maintain capital. Given recent market conditions, the balance has been lost. Unfortunately, as house prices, earnings and capital have continued to deteriorate, their ability to fulfill their mission has deteriorated. In particular, the capacity of their capital to absorb further losses while supporting new business activity is in doubt.

Today’s action addresses safety and soundness concerns. FHFA’s rating system is called GSE Enterprise Risk or G-Seer. It stands for Governance, Solvency, Earnings and Enterprise Risk which includes credit, market and operational risk. There are pervasive weaknesses across the board, which have been getting worse in this market.

Over the last three years OFHEO, and now FHFA, have worked hard to encourage the Enterprises to rectify their accounting, systems, controls and risk management issues. They have made good progress in many areas, but market conditions have overwhelmed that progress.
The result has been that they have been unable to provide needed stability to the market. They also find themselves unable to meet their affordable housing mission. Rather than letting these conditions fester and worsen and put our markets in jeopardy, FHFA, after painstaking review, has decided to take action now.

Key events over the past six months have demonstrated the increasing challenge faced by the companies in striving to balance mission and safety and soundness, and the ultimate disruption of that balance that led to today’s announcements. In the first few months of this year, the secondary market showed significant deterioration, with buyers demanding much higher prices for mortgage backed securities.
In February, in recognition of the remediation progress in financial reporting, we removed the portfolio caps on each company, but they did not have the capital to use that flexibility.

In March, we announced with the Enterprises an initiative to increase mortgage market liquidity and market confidence. We reduced the OFHEO-directed capital requirements in return for their commitments to raise significant capital and to maintain overall capital levels well in excess of requirements.

In April, we released our Annual Report to Congress, identifying each company as a significant supervisory concern and noting, in particular, the deteriorating mortgage credit environment and the risks it posed to the companies.

In May OFHEO lifted its 2006 Consent Order with Fannie Mae after the company completed the terms of that order. Subsequently, Fannie Mae successfully raised $7.4 billion of new capital, but Freddie Mac never completed the capital raise promised in March.

Since then credit conditions in the mortgage market continued to deteriorate, with home prices continuing to decline and mortgage delinquency rates reaching alarming levels. FHFA intensified its reviews of each company’s capital planning and capital position, their earnings forecasts and the effect of falling house prices and increasing delinquencies on the credit quality of their mortgage book.

In getting to today, the supervision team has spent countless hours reviewing with each company various forecasts, stress tests, and projections, and has evaluated the performance of their internal models in these analyses. We have had many meetings with each company’s management teams, and have had frank exchanges regarding loss projections, asset valuations, and capital adequacy. More recently, we have gone the extra step of inviting the Federal Reserve and the OCC to have some of their senior mortgage credit experts join our team in these assessments. The conclusions we reach today, while our own, have had the added benefit of their insight and perspective.

After this exhaustive review, I have determined that the companies cannot continue to operate safely and soundly and fulfill their critical public mission, without significant action to address our concerns, which are:

• the safety and soundness issues I mentioned, including current capitalization;
• current market conditions;
• the financial performance and condition of each company;
• the inability of the companies to fund themselves according to normal practices and prices; and
• the critical importance each company has in supporting the residential mortgage market in this country,

Therefore, in order to restore the balance between safety and soundness and mission, FHFA has placed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac into conservatorship. That is a statutory process designed to stabilize a troubled institution with theobjective of returning the entities to normal business operations. FHFA will act as the conservator to operate the Enterprises until they are stabilized.

The Boards of both companies consented yesterday to the conservatorship. I appreciate the cooperation we have received from the boards and the management of both Enterprises. These individuals did not create the inherent conflict and flawed business model embedded in the Enterprises’ structure.

The goal of these actions is to help restore confidence in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, enhance their capacity to fulfill their mission, and mitigate the systemic risk that has contributed directly to the instability in the current market. The lack of confidence has resulted in continuing spread widening of their MBS, which means that virtually none of the large drop in interest rates over the past year has been passed on to the mortgage markets. On top of that, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, in order to try to build capital, have continued to raise prices and tighten credit standards.

FHFA has not undertaken this action lightly. We have consulted with the Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Ben Bernanke, who was appointed a consultant to FHFA under the new legislation. We have also consulted with the Secretary of the Treasury, not only as an FHFA Oversight Board member, but also in his duties under the law to provide financing to the GSEs. They both concurred with me that conservatorship needed to be undertaken now.

There are several key components of this conservatorship:

First, Monday morning the businesses will open as normal, only with stronger backing for the holders of MBS, senior debt and subordinated debt.

Second, the Enterprises will be allowed to grow their guarantee MBS books without limits and continue to purchase replacement securities for their portfolios, about $20 billion per month without capital constraints.

Third, as the conservator, FHFA will assume the power of the Board and management.

Fourth, the present CEOs will be leaving, but we have asked them to stay on to help with the transition.

Fifth, I am announcing today I have selected Herb Allison to be the new CEO of Fannie Mae and David Moffett the CEO of Freddie Mac. Herb has been the Vice Chairman of Merrill Lynch and for the last eight years chairman of TIAA-CREF. David was the Vice Chairman and CFO of US Bancorp. I appreciate the willingness of these two men to take on these tough jobs during these challenging times. Their compensation will be significantly lower than the outgoing CEOs. They will be joined by equally strong non-executive chairmen.

Sixth, at this time any other management action will be very limited. In fact, the new CEOs have agreed with me that it is very important to work with the current management teams and employees to encourage them to stay and to continue to make important improvements to the Enterprises.

Seventh, in order to conserve over $2 billion in capital every year, the common stock and preferred stock dividends will be eliminated, but the common and all preferred stocks will continue to remain outstanding. Subordinated debt interest and principal payments will continue to be made.

Eighth, all political activities -- including all lobbying -- will be halted immediately. We will review the charitable activities.

Lastly and very importantly, there will be the financing and investing relationship with the U.S. Treasury, which Secretary Paulson will be discussing. We believe that these facilities will provide the critically needed support to Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae and importantly the liquidity of the mortgage market.

One of the three facilities he will be mentioning is a secured liquidity facility which will be not only for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, but also for the 12 Federal Home Loan Banks that FHFA also regulates. The Federal Home Loan Banks have performed remarkably well over the last year as they have a different business model than Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and a different capital structure that grows as their lending activity grows. They are joint and severally liable for the Bank System’s debt obligations and all but one of the 12 are profitable. Therefore, it is very unlikely that they will use the facility.

During the conservatorship period, FHFA will continue to work expeditiously on the many regulations needed to implement the new law. Some of the key regulations will be minimum capital standards, prudential safety and soundness standards and portfolio limits. It is critical to complete these regulations so that any new investor will understand the investment proposition.

This decision was a tough one for the FHFA team as they have worked so hard to help the Enterprises remain strong suppliers of support to the secondary mortgage markets. Unfortunately, the antiquated capital requirements and the turmoil in housing markets over-whelmed all the good and hard work put in by the FHFA teams and the Enterprises’ managers and employees. Conservatorship will give the Enterprises the time to restore the balances between safety and soundness and provide affordable housing and stability and liquidity to the mortgage markets. I want to thank the FHFA employees for their work during this intense regulatory process. They represent the best in public service. I would also like to thank the employees of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac for all their hard work. Working together we can finish the job of restoring confidence in the Enterprises and with the new legislation build a stronger and safer future for the mortgage markets, homeowners and renters in America.
Thank you and I will now turn it back to Secretary Paulson.
The quick & dirty summary:
  • Both common and preferred stock dividends are gone (a good start, taxpayer dollars going straight to dividend payouts is pretty outrageous)
  • The portfolios of both GSEs will run down starting in 2010 at 10% annual rate until at a "safe" level is reached (whatever that is)
  • Modest growth in their mortgage backed securities portfolio in 2009 (so let's gamble and lever up some more before running things down. The taxpayers will love that one)
  • Capital limits eliminated (who needs limits when Treasury, that means you, the taxpayer pays for everything!)
  • Treasury to buy some MBS as necessary on a temporary basis (blatantly illegal under the Federal Reserve Act)
  • Senior and subordinated corporate debt will be guaranteed going forward (despite the big black letters on the first page of the prospectus which says it's not), existing debt isn't and will presumably be dealt with in the run down.
  • The Treasury will buy as much preferred stock as necessary to keep the firms in the black (wow, let's throw money into a black hole, it's only taxpayer dollars anyway!)
  • Establishment of a new alphabet soup lending facility to Freddie, Fannie, and the Federal Home Loan Banks (jesus, another loan facility?!)
  • Preferred shares issued to Treasury will have a 10% coupon (it's like they're trying to kill them)
  • US Government gets warrants for 79.9% ownership interest (all shares are pretty much wiped out)
  • Statement which says "if you're a bank and our actions just made all your MBS papers and other Freddie & Fannie related assets go worthless, please call us, we'll work out a deal" (gotta love that corporate welfare)
  • Will take on 20 billion a month in debt to the US Taxpayer to fund all of the above, plus whatever else is required. (now you know why the debt ceiling was raised by $800 billion)
  • All authorities and activities expire in December 2009 (because by then they'll be retired and it's someone else's problem)
Well it could've been worse though this is more than bad enough. I guess it's like taking solace in being hit with a mere atomic bomb instead of a thermonuclear device.
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Post by The Duchess of Zeon »

I thought they'd fucking keep the dividend payments intact, I'm relieved they weren't at least that much of whores to capitalism.

More elaborately, I think this is bad news but we had no other choice. Taking in that much debt to the federal government (320 billion + the worthless shares in the two companies which make us actually owe money, basically) is going to have serious consequences, though on the other hand, what could we do? Letting them collapse would have triggered the second Great Depression. Hell, we may have a real depression rather than a recession simply at the news of this. Do you think there is going to be a stock market crash on Monday?
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Post by Admiral Valdemar »

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Post by weemadando »

I heard a great quote from an economist on BBC World Service overnight:

"It's not really capitalism when you privatise success but socialise failure."

Seemed a fairly apt description to me - so, are the Republicans more socialist than the Democrats? Because that was one of the discussions they were having, about how Republicans are all about minimising gov't, but seem to be spending a shitload (which the country doesn't have) on bailing out every business which looks wobbly.
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Post by SirNitram »

weemadando wrote:I heard a great quote from an economist on BBC World Service overnight:

"It's not really capitalism when you privatise success but socialise failure."

Seemed a fairly apt description to me - so, are the Republicans more socialist than the Democrats? Because that was one of the discussions they were having, about how Republicans are all about minimising gov't, but seem to be spending a shitload (which the country doesn't have) on bailing out every business which looks wobbly.


Only when it comes to rich people. Rich people get unlimited welfare and leniency. Because they're successful, you see, so they deserve to be treated like kings and fete'd as champions.

On topic, I'm wondering what the impact on banks will be. I know quite alot heavily invested in Freddie/Fannie Preferred Stock. That would be, yanno, bad.
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Post by Admiral Valdemar »

The Ponzi scheme is up. No matter how they cut this, they can't keep writing off these disasters willy nilly much longer. Something's got to give, and I don't think even the rich SOBs laughing all the way to the bank now will get off unscathed.
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Post by Alan Bolte »

The Duchess of Zeon wrote:Do you think there is going to be a stock market crash on Monday?
Could go either way, really, the only thing I'd really expect is enormous volume. On the one hand, there are many companies that hold GSE preferred stock, and that's going to lose what little value it has left. On the other hand, this is bad for US treasury bonds, and what's bad for treasuries tends to be bad for bonds in general, AFAIK. If people are taking money out of bonds, that's got to go somewhere, and it might go into stocks. Further, it's difficult to predict what the market will see as 'good news' or 'bad news,' especially for laymen like ourselves.

As to the decision itself, yes it's good that they don't collapse overnight, but did we really have to make all debtholders whole? Plenty of investors made big bets on that debt which should have lost money, then actively begged the government for a bailout. It certainly looks like scamming the taxpayer. But then, I'm not an expert. Of course, there are international implications with that debt, because much of it is held by foreign central banks, especially China and Japan.
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Post by J »

SirNitram wrote:On topic, I'm wondering what the impact on banks will be. I know quite alot heavily invested in Freddie/Fannie Preferred Stock. That would be, yanno, bad.
It'll kill them, but that's ok, the regulators will work out plans for them. Which likely translates to more handouts of your taxpayer dollars.

Bloomberg link
Regulators to Help Banks With Fannie, Freddie Shares (Update2)

By Alison Vekshin and Linda Shen

Sept. 7 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. regulators said they will help develop plans to restore capital at banks with ``significant'' holdings in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac after the government seized control of the two mortgage-finance companies.

The Federal Reserve and three other banking agencies ``are prepared to work'' with smaller banks whose stakes in Washington-based Fannie Mae and McLean, Virginia-based Freddie Mac represent a large share of their capital, the regulators said today in a joint news release.

The Treasury Department and the Federal Housing Finance Agency today placed the companies under a so-called conservatorship, replacing their chief executives and eliminating dividends. Common stockholders of the government- sponsored enterprises, weakened by a surge in mortgage defaults, will be last in line for any claims, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said at a Washington news conference. Preferred shareholders will be second in absorbing losses, he said.

The takeover is ``unambiguously bad'' for preferred shareholders who, along with holders of common stock, ``will in all likelihood be wiped out,'' Gimme Credit LLC analyst Kathleen Shanley said today in a statement. ``The government opted not to sweeten the pill for bank holders of preferred stock,'' in a move ``likely to set a precedent for any future rescue transactions,'' Shanley said.

`Outsized' Stakes

Regulators may be concerned the market will think smaller banks' capital will be completely depleted, said Ira Jersey, a Credit Suisse Holdings USA Inc. interest-rate strategist. He said his said research showed only ``five or six banks'' may have ``outsized'' stakes in the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac compared with their capital.

Small lenders have been the hardest hit as banks are being closed by federal regulators at the fastest pace in 14 years amid the worst housing slump since the Great Depression. This year's total reached 11 on Sept. 5 when Silver State Bank of Henderson, Nevada, was shuttered.

``Across the industry, banks do not have significant exposure to GSE equity securities,'' Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair said today in a statement. ``Any negative impact will be narrowly focused only on a few smaller institutions.''

Paulson urged banks to contact their primary federal regulator if they believe losses on holdings of common or preferred shares in Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac will cause them to fall below the government's benchmark for ``well-capitalized'' institutions.

Besides the Fed and FDIC, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Office of Thrift Supervision also signed onto today's release.

The OTS, which regulates savings and loans, expects the seizure of Fannie and Freddie to have ``a negligible impact'' since less than 1 percent of the institutions it oversees have significant concentrations of GSE stock, OTS spokesman Bill Ruberry said in an e-mail statement.
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Post by J »

Ack! I goofed. I shall place the blame on the larger than normal portion of red wine I had with my lunch.
Treasury to buy some MBS as necessary on a temporary basis (blatantly illegal under the Federal Reserve Act)
Correction, this is indeed perfectly legal, in fact Treasury does this already in their daily temporary open market ops. I had Treasury confused with the Federal Reserve. Ooops.
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Post by ArmorPierce »

So is the entire management team being replaced for allowing this to occur? I see that the CEO was replaced which is a good thing but surely he isn't the only one responsible.
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Post by J »

Watch the video, read the commentary. It's worse than I initially suspected as the existing debts are implicitly guaranteed by the continued (and guaranteed) solvency of Freddie & Fannie. I've been looking at the charts he's mentioned on my brokerage accounts and it's confirmed, everything is beginning to blow wide open. This is going to really suck once the market "gets it".
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Post by Broomstick »

OK, can you refine "really suck" a little better for those of us who aren't experts on these matters? Is this "cut back only to essentials" level of suck, "pawn the jewelry and good silverware" level of suck, or "stock up on canned goods and ammo in a rural bunker" level of suck?
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Post by SirNitram »

More banks get big writedowns, losses, and enter FDIC conservatorship as the old Freddie/Fannie stock sees it's value hit the floor and keep going, as opposed to the merely crappy constant downward trend in their value previous. A blitz on the new preferred stock, for the reason that this move basically backs it with the Full Faith And Credit of the US.

Federal debt grows, but since the only immediate threat had been if this didn't go through, the foreign banks funding that debt would begin turning off the tap, it'll be survivable.

Chaos on Wall Street. Interestingly, the Nikkei is rising presently, possibly because the Freddie-Fannie Debt is now entirely secure as opposed to obscenely risky.
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Post by J »

Broomstick wrote:OK, can you refine "really suck" a little better for those of us who aren't experts on these matters? Is this "cut back only to essentials" level of suck, "pawn the jewelry and good silverware" level of suck, or "stock up on canned goods and ammo in a rural bunker" level of suck?
Somewhere between the first & second, barring a completely unforeseen event coming out of left field. I think the big issue is the large open-ended addition to the federal debt, this will drive up the yeild of Treasuries which makes borrowing & funding the government's existing debt more expensive, not to mention the addition of new debt. As mortgage & lending rates are based off the yeild of Treasuries, they go up too which will slaughter the housing market and slow business & personal lending to a crawl. A lot of businesses which depend on loans & lines of credit for daily operations are going to go bankrupt. Between this and consumer spending taking a dive as credit cards are cut off, the government's tax revenues are going to fall, so either programs will have to be cut & taxes raised or the debt soars upward.

The unintended consequences part, quite a few pension funds are going to get killed. Either they own Freddie & Fannie shares or they're heavily invested in companies which do, or they're invested in sectors which the bailout is going to hurt. It's also going to hurt cities, hospitals, and other parties which rely on bond sales for their funding; yeilds once again are up which makes paying the interest a lot more expensive. Tax revenues are again headed down so they're going to be struggling with solvency as well, in fact several counties & cities have or are in the process of declaring bankruptcy. In addition to that, FDIC Fridays will become a featured weekly event as SirNitram mentioned, we might even see a good old fashioned bank run.

And all that puts further stress on the system making everything worse. Unless you're Goldman-Sachs and you got the inside tip from the Feds since they all used to serve on the GS executive board.
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Post by J »

Speaking of mutual funds taking a hit...

Bloomberg link
Fidelity, Wellington Lose After Fannie, Freddie Drop (Update1)

By Michael Patterson and Jeff Kearns

Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Fidelity Investments, Wellington Management Co. and Dodge & Cox topped the list of money managers loading up on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the second quarter before the mortgage lenders lost $18.9 billion in value.

Fidelity, the world's largest mutual fund manager, Wellington, the Boston-based hedge fund company, and San Francisco-based Dodge & Cox added the most to their stakes in Fannie Mae between April and June, according to data from June 30 government filings compiled by Bloomberg. Wellington was the biggest buyer of Freddie Mac on a net basis among fund firms.

Investors who bought on speculation the government would rescue shareholders bet wrong after the stocks tumbled more than 60 percent this quarter. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said yesterday the government will take over the companies, hurt by the biggest surge in mortgage defaults in at least three decades, by taking 79.9 percent of the common stock and all their dividends in return for buying $1 billion of preferred shares.

``This is a disaster for anyone who bought the stock,'' said Jack Ablin, who helps manage $65 billion as chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago. ``Based on what we know so far it seems like the stock is worth virtually nothing.''

Fannie, based in Washington, and Freddie, based in McLean, Virginia, lost more than 80 percent of their value this year as losses on subprime mortgages spurred more than $500 billion of writedowns among global financial companies. Together the companies' common stock lost $18.9 billion in market value since June 30, the last time mutual funds were required to disclose their holdings in government filings.

Federal Takeover

Adam Banker, a spokesman for Boston-based Fidelity, and Wellington's Lisa Finkel said their firms' policies are not to comment on individual holdings. Dodge & Cox spokesman Steve Gorski didn't return voice messages.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency will take over Fannie and Freddie under a so-called conservatorship, replacing the chief executive officers while infusing cash to preserve their businesses. The agency will receive warrants representing an equity stake of almost 80 percent of each company, reducing the portion owned by existing common shareholders.

Fannie Mae rose 62 cents to $7.04 in last week's final session, then fell to $5.50 in after-hours trading when the Wall Street Journal said a government takeover was imminent. Freddie Mac added 15 cents to $5.10 and slipped to $4.04 after hours.

Today's Plunge

In German trading before U.S. exchanges opened today, Fannie Mae lost $3.49 to $3.55 at 8:22 a.m. New York time. Freddie Mac declined $2.56 to $2.54.

Common shareholders are ``last in line'' for claims on Fannie and Freddie and will bear losses ahead of a new series of government preferred stock, Paulson said yesterday. That will result in little or no value for stockholders, according to Chicago-based bond analysis firm Gimme Credit LLC.

``The payoff would have been high if there had been a government bailout, but that wasn't the case,'' said John Davidson, president of PartnerRe Asset Management in Greenwich, Connecticut, which invests more than $12 billion and doesn't own Fannie or Freddie. ``If you haven't prepared investors, then I think the clients will want new managers.''

Wellington funds added a net 12.2 million shares of Fannie Mae in the second quarter, when the stock averaged $27.03 a share. The firm had 26.3 million shares as of June 30, or 2.4 percent of Fannie's stock. Since the end of the quarter, Fannie averaged $10.36, a price that would imply a loss of about $200 million on Wellington's new shares if none were sold.

Doubled Stake

Fidelity's funds added a net 10.3 million Fannie shares during the quarter, bringing their stake to 56.5 million, or 5.2 percent of the outstanding stock. Dodge & Cox reported owning 119.8 million shares as of July 31, based on a government filing required when a stake goes above 5 percent.

Wellington doubled its Freddie Mac stake to 21.5 million in the quarter, when the stock averaged $24.75. Since then, the price averaged $7.33.

Capital World Investors and OppenheimerFunds Inc. mutual funds were among the biggest sellers of Fannie and Freddie shares, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Capital World, which manages the American Funds series, sold a net 51.6 million Fannie Mae shares prior to a July 31 filing, reducing its stake to 16.2 million, or 1.5 percent of the company.

OppenheimerFunds, based in New York, sold 4.2 million Freddie Mac shares, leaving it with less than 0.1 percent of the outstanding stock.

Maura Griffin, a spokeswoman for Los Angeles-based Capital Group International Inc., the managers of American Funds, said the company doesn't comment on individual holdings. OppenheimerFunds Inc. spokesman Andrew Healy didn't return a call.

``It was a very risky investment and there was a 90 percent chance you could be wiped out,'' said Walter ``Bucky'' Hellwig, who helps oversee $30 billion at Morgan Asset Management in Birmingham, Alabama, and owns no Fannie or Freddie shares. ``If you're a long-only investor you just can't take that risk.''
FRE & FNM were trading in the $20-$30 range when the mutual funds were on their buying spree, those shares are currently worth about $1.15. That's a nice 95% loss. Oops. A lot of 401k plans loaded up on those shares as well, I'd say quite a few people just had a sizeable portion go poof from their retirement savings.
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Post by Broomstick »

OK, the BBC and NYTimes are both reporting that the stock market is up ... but conveniently not mentioning that stock holders in Freddie and Fannie are SOL.

So.... stocks up, foreign investors in US happy, pension plans fucked? Do I have that right?
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Post by aerius »

Stock market up for now, I'm guessing it's only short term since nearly half of this morning's gain is already gone. Foreign investors are a mixed bag, those with FNM & FRE debt are happy, those with US government debt aren't too pleased. I wouldn't say pension plans are fucked, at least not yet, but they're starting to eat some losses. If/when the situation starts getting out of control then the pension plans are screwed, but not yet.

Today and I'd guess the rest of this week will be a sorting out phase as everyone scrambles to figure out what the hell it all means and get themselves setup for what they think will happen. After that, who knows?
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Post by Col. Crackpot »

J wrote:
Somewhere between the first & second, barring a completely unforeseen event coming out of left field. I think the big issue is the large open-ended addition to the federal debt, this will drive up the yeild of Treasuries which makes borrowing & funding the government's existing debt more expensive, not to mention the addition of new debt. As mortgage & lending rates are based off the yeild of Treasuries, they go up too which will slaughter the housing market and slow business & personal lending to a crawl. A lot of businesses which depend on loans & lines of credit for daily operations are going to go bankrupt. Between this and consumer spending taking a dive as credit cards are cut off, the government's tax revenues are going to fall, so either programs will have to be cut & taxes raised or the debt soars upward.
There are a lot more things driving mortgage rates than treasury yields. Had the Fed let Fannie and Freddie crash and burn, rates would have spiked. Big, pounded by the hammer of Thor, kind of spike. The fact is, without the implied backing of the government through Freddie and Fannie, this would have hurt a lot more. In a quest to mitigate risk Underwriting guidelines would have changed for the draconian, rates would have spiked somewhere in the order of 2-3 percentage points (or worse) overnight and home prices would become so devalued by the subsequent drop in demand, they wouldn't be worth the sum total of the materials used to build them.
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Post by aerius »

Col. Crackpot wrote:There are a lot more things driving mortgage rates than treasury yields.
Of course there's other things, however, mortgage rates are always at a premium over Treasury yields. You're never going to see a 5% 10 year mortgage when the 10 year T-bill is sitting at 8%, at best the rate will be on par with the Treasury yield.
Had the Fed let Fannie and Freddie crash and burn, rates would have spiked. Big, pounded by the hammer of Thor, kind of spike. The fact is, without the implied backing of the government through Freddie and Fannie, this would have hurt a lot more. In a quest to mitigate risk Underwriting guidelines would have changed for the draconian, rates would have spiked somewhere in the order of 2-3 percentage points (or worse) overnight and home prices would become so devalued by the subsequent drop in demand, they wouldn't be worth the sum total of the materials used to build them.
All that is going to happen anyway, it's just been delayed a few months to maybe a couple years. Watch what happens when the US government has to raise its debt limit again to pay for the bailout, traders & foreign central banks will be dumping T-bills by the boatload which will spike the yield a few percentage points and take mortgages along with them.

As for "draconian" underwriting standards, that was the kept the housing market under control for nearly 70 years. The US got rid of those standards and this is the kind of crap that happens, lenders get greedy & stupid along with the public and pump up bubbles which then go kaboom and kill everyone.

Here's what should've been done:
  • Put F&F into conservatorship and rundown their assets
  • Bondholders get paid first, but will eat some losses, then preferred shareholders, then common shares. The bonds never had an explicit government guarantee anyway, so if they take some losses, tough shit. It says so in the goddamn prospectus in big black letters on the front page.
  • While that's going on, establish a new GSE to take care of mortgages going forward, and make sure it has proper underwriting standards. Full doc, 20% down, 36% DTI max, fixed rate, no downpayment assistance or any other funny bullshit. A true, no frills, prime mortgage.
  • This guarantees there's a sustainable housing market going forward, the taxpayers are protected, and the people who tried to game the system and profit off it get assraped.
This will crash housing prices overnight as few people will be able to get mortgage anymore at existing home prices, the price crashes down and once it reaches around 3X annual income people will be able to get mortgages for them, buy them, and stabilize the price at that level. The US government doesn't take on any more debt so Treasury yields stay put. The spread might blow open but let's face it, mortgage rates these days are well below historical norms. The historical average on a 30 year fixed is around 8-10%, and we're sitting at what, 6% & change? It can blow out 3% and still be in the average range, we've just been spoiled stupid by historical low rates.

That's what people don't get, the last 10 years are a historical anomaly. We've had retardedly easy credit & loans for everyone along with record low rates. People think the crap we have now is "normal" but it's not, we have to, and are going to get back to historical norms one way or the other. We can eat our losses now and do it the easier way, or we can try & drag it out as long as possible and have a big earth shattering kaboom at the end.
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Post by bobalot »

Wow. Privatize the profits during good times and socialize the costs during the bad times.

I don't understand, Universal health care is considered socialist while at the same time spending billions of taxpayers money to basically nationalize 2 banks is considered good policy.
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Post by aerius »

Well, I'd say it's a reasonable guess that WaMu and Lehman's had significant Freddie & Fannie exposure since they've both getting gangbanged up the ass after the bailout.

Also, the reason Fred & Fan had to be bailed out was that they had ~$220 billion in bonds that were due by the end of this month. That would've killed them on the spot, but now, you taxpayers get to pony up ~$220 billion so that Freddie & Fannie can pay off the foreign central banks and other investors who own the bonds. That's in addition to their continuing losses and future bonds payments. It's not a bailout to "save the market" or "help the home owners" or whatever bullshit they're claiming, it's a flatout transfer of your tax dollars into the hands of investors. That was the goal all along. Bear Stearns was the test run to see if the public would swallow it, they did, now they've pulled the big one.
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Post by Darth Wong »

McCain's approval rating isn't 0%, so the public obviously has much less of a problem with this than you'd expect. At least half of them want four more years of the same, with extra trailer trash!
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Post by Col. Crackpot »

aerius wrote:
All that is going to happen anyway, it's just been delayed a few months to maybe a couple years. Watch what happens when the US government has to raise its debt limit again to pay for the bailout, traders & foreign central banks will be dumping T-bills by the boatload which will spike the yield a few percentage points and take mortgages along with them.

As for "draconian" underwriting standards, that was the kept the housing market under control for nearly 70 years. The US got rid of those standards and this is the kind of crap that happens, lenders get greedy & stupid along with the public and pump up bubbles which then go kaboom and kill everyone.

Here's what should've been done:
  • Put F&F into conservatorship and rundown their assets
  • Bondholders get paid first, but will eat some losses, then preferred shareholders, then common shares. The bonds never had an explicit government guarantee anyway, so if they take some losses, tough shit. It says so in the goddamn prospectus in big black letters on the front page.
  • While that's going on, establish a new GSE to take care of mortgages going forward, and make sure it has proper underwriting standards. Full doc, 20% down, 36% DTI max, fixed rate, no downpayment assistance or any other funny bullshit. A true, no frills, prime mortgage.
  • This guarantees there's a sustainable housing market going forward, the taxpayers are protected, and the people who tried to game the system and profit off it get assraped.
This will crash housing prices overnight as few people will be able to get mortgage anymore at existing home prices, the price crashes down and once it reaches around 3X annual income people will be able to get mortgages for them, buy them, and stabilize the price at that level. The US government doesn't take on any more debt so Treasury yields stay put. The spread might blow open but let's face it, mortgage rates these days are well below historical norms. The historical average on a 30 year fixed is around 8-10%, and we're sitting at what, 6% & change? It can blow out 3% and still be in the average range, we've just been spoiled stupid by historical low rates.

That's what people don't get, the last 10 years are a historical anomaly. We've had retardedly easy credit & loans for everyone along with record low rates. People think the crap we have now is "normal" but it's not, we have to, and are going to get back to historical norms one way or the other. We can eat our losses now and do it the easier way, or we can try & drag it out as long as possible and have a big earth shattering kaboom at the end.
Are you smoking crack? Blow the brain tumor patient's head off with a 12 ga. He'll most likely die anyway and it will kill the cancer. Your plan will do nothing more than cause more foreclosures and short sales and push both struggling individuals and undercapatalized banks over the edge.

I'm not saying that a return to more traditional underwriting guidelines is a bad thing, but you can't shock the system by doing this overnight.
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Post by aerius »

Col. Crackpot wrote:Are you smoking crack? Blow the brain tumor patient's head off with a 12 ga. He'll most likely die anyway and it will kill the cancer. Your plan will do nothing more than cause more foreclosures and short sales and push both struggling individuals and undercapatalized banks over the edge.
Actually it's more like do you chemotherapy now or pray that the cancer doesn't kill you. It's the fastest way to kill the bubble and purge the crap out of the entire system, the longer it drags on, the worse everything gets, just like cancer. The dumbass Mickey D's worker who bought a $400k home is fucked anyway, there's no way he can refi or keep his home even if you give him 10 years to work things out, the home was unaffordable in the first place and ALWAYS will be. The idiots who HELOC'd their homes to buy cars & TV's aren't going to get above water either, their homes are already overpriced and there's no fucking way in hell they can appreciate another 25% so they can flip the homes and pay off their loans. Never going to happen.

On the other hand the people who actually put 20% down on their homes with 36% DTI or less will be just fine, they're not going to get put underwater and their debt loads are low enough that they're not going to default. Prime mortgage standards resulted from the Great Depression, and were designed to survive serious hard times. People who made prudent financial choices will make it through, there will be pain but they won't be wiped out in most cases. The tards who tried to speculate and game the system will get fisted up the ass as they rightly should.

As for banks going under, well shit, what the hell did you think would happen when you run banks like high risk hedge funds? The only way to save them is to reinflate the housing & real estate bubble and that's absolutely impossible as the money to do it doesn't exist. Total value of housing in the US is around $20 trillion, US GDP is around $13 trillion, ain't fucking possible, ain't fucking happening. Housing related losses to date are already ~$6 trillion, not even the government can pull that kind of money out of its ass.

The banks are toast no matter what happens, we can have a big kaboom now or a truly humongous kaboom in a couple years. Right now we still have some control over the situation and how it unwinds, add a trillion or two to the US national debt and squeeze the credit markets some more which is what's going to happen if this shit drags out and that control is gone. Right now the FDIC can still borrow from Treasury to pay out for failed banks, in the future when Treasury is having trouble selling T-bills the FDIC won't be able to borrow shit unless they fire up the printing presses and inflate the crap out of the USD. That's gonna fuck things up in ways you don't even want to think about.
I'm not saying that a return to more traditional underwriting guidelines is a bad thing, but you can't shock the system by doing this overnight.
We can do it now and have some control over the process, or we can wait till the markets force us to do it by cutting off credit and crashing the entire system. We waited too long, good solutions are no longer possible, we only have bad and worse. Put it this way, you're driving drunk and the cops just stopped you. You can get out your car now, get fined and do your community service or you can floor it and lead the cops on a high speed chase. They'll still get you, except now you'll get fined more and do jailtime. If you were smart you would've taken the bus home from the bar or you wouldn't have gotten drunk at the bar in the first place, but it's way too late for that now.
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Re: Freddie & Fannie bailout details

Post by J »

We're in the hole so let's keep digging, and pass me a bigger shovel won't you?

Bloomberg link
Fannie, Freddie to Buy $40 Billion a Month of Troubled Assets

By Dawn Kopecki

Oct. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Federal regulators directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to start purchasing $40 billion a month of underperforming mortgage bonds as the Bush administration expands its options to buy troubled financial assets and resuscitate the U.S. economy, according to three people briefed about the plan.

Fannie and Freddie began notifying bond traders last week that each company needs to buy $20 billion a month in mostly subprime, Alt-A and non-performing prime mortgage securities, according to the people, who asked not to be identified because the plans are confidential. The purchases would be separate from the U.S. Treasury's $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency, which placed the two companies in conservatorship on Sept. 7, directed them last month to start increasing their purchases of loans and mortgage-backed securities as the Treasury seeks to absorb underperforming and illiquid assets from financial companies.

``For now, they're under conservatorship and they have to be used to keep the flow of capital going to the housing market,'' former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said in an interview on Bloomberg Television's ``Conversations with Judy Woodruff.'' ``They're important to maintaining the flow of government finance'' and need to be used actively, he said.

Adding underperforming assets to Fannie and Freddie's combined $1.52 trillion mortgage portfolios would come at a time when the two mortgage-finance companies already hold as much as $210 billion of bad debt that may be eligible itself for the Treasury's relief program, their regulator said Oct. 5.

A spokesman for Washington-based Fannie, Brian Faith, and Doug Duvall at McLean, Virginia-based Freddie wouldn't comment.

Overall Goal

Neither Fannie nor Freddie has turned a profit in the past year, accumulating $14.9 billion in combined quarterly losses, largely related to bad subprime and Alt-A mortgage assets.

FHFA spokeswoman Stefanie Mullin declined to comment on the details of the program. Treasury spokeswoman Jennifer Zuccarelli wasn't immediately available to comment.

``The overall goal of the program will be to contribute greater stability and liquidity in the mortgage market, which should enhance consumers' access to mortgage financing and ultimately result in reduced mortgage interest rates,'' FHFA Director James Lockhart said in a Sept. 19 statement.

Subprime loans were given to borrowers with poor or limited credit records or high debt burdens. Alt-A loans were made to borrowers who wanted atypical terms such as proof-of-income waivers, without sufficient compensating attributes. About 35 percent of subprime loans in non-agency mortgage securities are at least 60 days late, while 15 percent of Alt-A loans are, according to a Sept. 9 report by FTN Financial Capital Markets.

Growth

Non-agency, or private-label, bonds are issued by banks and don't carry guarantees by Fannie, Freddie or government-agency Ginnie Mae. Freddie held about $207 billion in non-agency debt in its $760.9 billion portfolio as of August, according to its latest monthly volume summary. Fannie had about $104 billion of such securities in its $759.9 billion portfolio in August.

Regulators initially restricted Fannie and Freddie's growth when they seized control of the government-sponsored enterprises Sept. 7. To ``promote stability'' and lower mortgage costs to borrowers, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said the two would be allowed to ``modestly increase'' their mortgage portfolios to as much as $1.7 trillion through the end of next year and said they would no longer be run ``to maximize shareholder returns.''

Less than two weeks later, Fannie and Freddie were told to ramp up their mortgage bond purchases as the financial crisis deepened and credit activity came to near standstill.

Fannie and Freddie which own or guarantee almost half of the $12 trillion U.S. home loan market, were given access to $200 billion in emergency Treasury financing as part of their rescue package. The companies may also be able to sell their bad debt to the Treasury through its $700 billion financial-rescue program signed into law Oct. 3.

FHFA has said the companies plan to release third-quarter results next month as scheduled. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg project losses for both Fannie and Freddie at least through 2009.
We now have an answer to what "modest growth in MBS portfolio" entails. Between now and when Freddie & Fannie are placed into rundown in 2010, they will accumulate a further $600 billion in bad loans. Look for another raise in the national debt ceiling soon.
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I'm not sure why people choose 'To Love is to Bury' as their wedding song...It's about a murder-suicide
- Margo Timmins


When it becomes serious, you have to lie
- Jean-Claude Juncker
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