Ukraine's pro-Western coalition folds

[Siege]

Ukraine's governing coalition has collapsed, the parliamentary speaker says, raising the prospect of the country being knocked off its pro-Western course and left leaning more towards Moscow.

"I officially announce the collapse of the coalition of democratic forces," announced parliament speaker Arseny Yatsenyuk.

Less than four years after President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko united in the "Orange Revolution," their political marriage lies not for the first time in ugly tatters.

Tymoshenko was expected to resign after the announcement and start trying to build a new coalition.

She should continue functioning as prime minister until the formation of a new cabinet, which must happen within 30 days - by mid-October - or Yushchenko can call new elections.

It is expected that her party, the Tymoshenko Bloc, will either form an alliance with the pro-Russian opposition Regions Party or new elections will be held - experts have mooted December 21 as a possible date.

The political crisis began when Yushchenko pulled his Our Ukraine party out of the coalition on September 3 after Tymoshenko sided with the pro-Moscow opposition to pass new laws.

Yushchenko, who believed the laws would be used to reduce his power and facilitate his possible impeachment, bitterly described the vote against him as a bid by Tymoshenko to establish a "dictatorship" and complained of a parliamentary "coup".

Tymoshenko in turn accused the president of having "destroyed" the governing coalition by pulling out of the alliance with her party.

Tymoshenko and Yushchenko were the icons of the 2004 pro-Western Orange Revolution and have each been considered Western-leaning politicians despite persistent and sharp disagreements on domestic political issues.

Last month, however, Yushchenko's backers accused Tymoshenko of "high treason" for allegedly siding with Moscow in its conflict with Georgia by abstaining from the vote over imposing new restrictions on Russia's Ukraine-based Black Sea fleet.

The crisis in Ukraine comes ahead of a presidential election due in 2009 or 2010, which is expected to pit Yushchenko against both Tymoshenko and the leader of the Regions Party, former president Viktor Yanukovich.

The outcome is sure to be awaited with unease both in Western capitals and in Moscow.

The crisis has set back Ukraine's NATO and EU aspirations as well as raising eyebrows in Washington. US officials badly want Tymoshenko and Yushchenko to work together to bring the ex-Soviet nation out of Russia's orbit.

US Vice President Dick Cheney paid a visit to Kiev earlier this month as he toured the region trying to bolster America's ex-Soviet allies following Russia's war with Georgia.

That conflict and the ensuing fallout have served as a reminder that Russia finds it hard to stomach NATO or EU encroachment eastwards into what it sees as its historic sphere of influence.

European officials have suggested Ukraine could be the next flashpoint for tensions between Russia and the West.

People in the southeast of Ukraine are mainly Russian-speaking, while those in the northwest predominantly speak Ukrainian and are more oriented towards integration with the West.

Yushchenko last month earned Russia's wrath by imposing restrictions on the Russian navy. Under a long-term lease arrangement, Russia's Black Sea fleet is based at Sevastopol on Ukraine's Crimean coast until 2017.

Ukraine also forms a key part of the pipeline transit route for Russian gas exports to Europe.

Yushchenko was swept to power by the so-called "Orange Revolution" in which 10 days of peaceful demonstrations forced a re-run of a presidential election that Yanukovich was widely accused of rigging.

Yushchenko sacked Tymoshenko as prime minister after earlier feuding in 2005.

© 2008 AFP

Assuming for a moment that the next coalition is going to be Tymoshenko/Yanukovich (which seems likely), I guess that'll be the end of the Ukrainan attempts to gain entrance into the EU and NATO. Which incidentally will probably be a good thing for EU-Russian relations: if the Ukrainan government stops pushing for membership, American stooges in the EU can't sponsor them, which means Russia won't be antagonized, which means relations can normalize. Which would be a good thing, in my opinion, at least for the EU.

[K. A. Pital]

Yushenko's rating is somewhere in the lowest of the low.

However, it's clear that he doesn't want to go down without a fight. He promised to bring Ukraine into NATO for the sake of his american friends... failure doesn't seem to be an option.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

What I don't understand is how and why the West would matter so much to him. Because of distance and location and goods available, trade with the West, no matter what, will not be the most dominant factor in the economy, vis a vis trade with neighbouring countries, in particular, Russia.

More so if Ukraine tries to fight for the cheap goods market, it already has been beaten to it by Poland, which is much closer to the EU and is already in the EU.

So from many points of view, antagonising your neighbour, which is probably your most important trade partner, is just plain stupid.

[Pablo Sanchez]

So from many points of view, antagonising your neighbour, which is probably your most important trade partner, is just plain stupid.

Simply put, a lot of Ukrainians, mostly in Western Ukraine, just really hate Russia. They hate Russia for the centuries of domination and treatment as an inferior ethnic group, and they blame Russia for the 1930s famine that was particularly devastating to Ukraine. That is, they have basically similar reasons for hating Russians as the Irish had for hating the English immediately after they got their independence, minus the issue of Ulster.

Ukraine is also afraid of being dissolved into a rump state, because parts of Eastern Ukraine plus Crimea wouldn't necessarily feel so bad about being part of Russia.

Ukraine has a few good reasons to seek help from outside; not to say that they overbalance the risk of seeking it.