The VP-Debate

[Superman]

They just made a fool of Kudlow on CNBC. The big segment he touted as a victory for Palin, the general's name she brought up, was incorrect. It was McKiernan not McClellan.

Excellent.

A bunch of people even laughed at him while his face turned red. Kudlow is such a lying fuck head. There's no way she won that. He's like Rush Limbaugh, he can't be critical of his own party, even when the facts are obvious.

[Aratech]

See, that is the kind of shit i'm talking about. It's like watching her pathetic performance in this debate has truly opened my eyes to how utterly wrong of a leader she would be for America.

I don't know weather to laugh or cry anymore

Do what I do: laugh merrily if things go your way, and laugh bitterly if they don't, while shaking your head and wondering how people can be such gullible idiots.

[Medic]

After seeing Palin get thouroughly demolished in this debate, is anyone else as utterly terrified as I am that this crazy retard bitch is so close to the most powerful office in the country?

I'm actually more fearful that because many here fear that she was demonlished, that somehow the polls will show the reverse. Last week's Obama/McCain debate had a surprising fear of McCain holding his own by many, and when the polls came out, it was quite a different story. I can't possibly see how someone would think she did well, but then 30% of the public still supports Bush.

Correction: NPR reported %26 just earlier this week. (the POTUS's approval rating; his lowest yet, IIRC)

[Gandalf]

No matter what happens in the election, Palins award is in heaven!

Yeah, what the hell was with that line?

[Aratech]

They just made a fool of Kudlow on CNBC. The big segment he touted as a victory for Palin, the general's name she brought up, was incorrect. It was McKiernan not McClellan.

Excellent.

A bunch of people even laughed at him while his face turned red. Kudlow is such a lying fuck head. There's no way she won that. He's like Rush Limbaugh, he can't be critical of his own party, even when the facts are obvious.

To be fair, I don't think that Larry boy is quite as overweight, or quite as pig headed. Could be wrong there though. They're all bitter old men regardless, who are too busy giving the GOP a blowjob to realize that outside of their pathetic target audience, the world thinks they're pathetic nutjobs.

[Covenant]

We'll see how it goes. Honestly, so long as she spoke in complete sentences and was able to avoid long pauses, she was going to do pretty well. That was, afterall, the big thing. Since she simply avoided half of the questions and filled that space with something she wanted to talk about she avoided ever having to address areas of weakness in her prep work.

I mean, imagine it, if someone wanted to debate about the stuff we do here and they were only asked to fill 500 words, and not be judged on that content? The republicans will be kind to her, the democrats won't, and the media will break along whatever line seems to generate the most revenue (except the opinion shows like Olbermann and O'Reilly, which will break politically) and the independant voters will need to kinda figure it out based on what they listen to.

She could easily 'win' because she actually had cogent points. Like I said earlier, she can repeat those. I expected this. I knew she'd come prepared, but I didn't expect she'd actually answer entirely different questions. I did hope she'd say some crazy things, like she did about the V.P. position's expansion of power. Biden did a good job identifying with people though. Sure, Palin will have come out of this looking like someone who is, you know, in posession of at least College Sophmore's brain. That's good for her. But I think Joe did a great job, and he may have really helped give a bunch of bigoted white men an okay reason to vote for Obama, as well as be gentlemanly enough to let women vote for the Democrats.

[Crossroads Inc.]

Actually can we go back to FOX for a moment? I am genuinely curious exactly how they are spinning this to have Palin come out as victor in this.

[Superman]

To be fair, I don't think that Larry boy is quite as overweight, or quite as pig headed. Could be wrong there though.

True. I don't think he's as hypocritical as Limbaugh either. Kudlow will, at least, listen to opposing viewpoints and have them as guests on his show. Limbaugh's show is nothing more than a daily dose of conservative propaganda.

[Qwerty 42]

Actually can we go back to FOX for a moment? I am genuinely curious exactly how they are spinning this to have Palin come out as victor in this.

Some floormates of mine felt that Biden was being a dick throughout the affair, so that would probably be it.

[CmdrWilkens]

The thing is that the Vp debates have, historically, moved the polls AT BEST by a point. Right now McCain/Palin needed a game changer and, as I made the point about time elsewhere, they on;y have 30 some odd days to make that game changer. Thsi certainly wasn't because her open invitation at the end to get interviewed more is just begging for the next disastrous interview. Yes she exceeded her basement level expectations but Biden also did better than expected and certainly kept a strong narrative plus some zingers. Thsi could break either way but what it won't do is stop the bleeding McCain is taking from the economy tanking and that is what he needed. Moreover her expectation level going forward is that she can do at least this well in the future so when she stumbles again its news.

I think the kicker out of this will be whether the late night shows and the entertainment folks keep harping on her for being unintelligible or evasive. If she still has the whole late-night/SNL crowd lost then it will be hard to pull her favorable/unfavorables back up to the point that she isn't a drag on the ticket.

[Aratech]

Actually can we go back to FOX for a moment? I am genuinely curious exactly how they are spinning this to have Palin come out as victor in this.

Some floormates of mine felt that Biden was being a dick throughout the affair, so that would probably be it.

Indeed, what are the diehard Palin supports but one giant walking style over substance fallacy?

[Medic]

Actually can we go back to FOX for a moment? I am genuinely curious exactly how they are spinning this to have Palin come out as victor in this.

The... old fuck, host of the Grapevine pointed out she is attractive, ... some other idiot said she was 'confident... intelligent... sensed when she was winning the debate' and as an example of that latter point, when she asked the moderator 'can we go to Afghanistan for a moment?'

Of course he didn't note the context (though he did quote the EXACT TIME, eastern standard, when she said this) leading to this query by Palin, that she asked if she could change the subject to this after Biden stridently took down her arguments pertaining to Iraq and support of Israel and Bush's failures in those.



I stopped watching Fox News though so I can't articulate more than that. The Twilight Zone moment was too damned much. I couldn't believe my ears (or eyes; the guy took a roll call vote by raising hand 'who won' and it was overwhelming in her favor in the crowd of... 20-some).

Fun fact though: I turned the station to MSNBC, Fox News AND CNN all within a minute of the end of the debate, literally, just to get a QUICK, DIRTY check on what the Media is framing this debate as.

ALL THREE STATIONS mentioned Palin was 'folksy' ('but was that enough?') and the context sounded positive.
Really puts the "mainstream media" in perspective.


I'm watching Olbermann now for a healthy dose of reality.

[Darth Yoshi]

"Attractive"? Seriously? Like that has anything at all to do with VP qualifications. But I suppose when reality hates you, you take what you can. *shakes head*

[Metatwaddle]

I watched the debate at a bar in Newark, DE, where the Delaware Obama campaign was having their party. Everyone seemed to think Biden curbstomped her - including people who thought McCain won the presidential debate. While he spoke, there were cheers; while she spoke, there was derisive laughter and the occasional "she's full of shit". It was a great time.

She spoke in complete sentences, but her answers were content-free and they didn't even answer the questions Iffil asked. I thought Iffil did a decent job considering the format, although I wish there had been a few more follow-up questions. I think Biden clearly won this one.

[Medic]

Hehe, Olbermann's guest at the moment ("Rachael Maddow" ... in quotes cause I didn't read it but typed it by sound) : "this is the woman that said Dick Cheney's only bad decision was shooting Harrey Whittington in the face."

This after she noted with a fair bit of trepidation that Palin calling for an EXPANSION of the Vice Presidency should be alarming to everyone, after 8 years of... Cheney / Bush.
Hell, Palin even made reference to the "Palin / McCain" ticket in a campaign speech. (for you know, the 1st 3-4 days after the Republican Convention where she was seen and active and not in a bunker as elusive as the type Osama Bin Laden must be hiding in)


I'm not taking that was a mere gaffe, personally.

[RedImperator]

My immediate impressions:

1) Biden won on the merits. He demonstrated a command of the issues without bloviating about them, he didn't commit any gaffes, he smiled, he was charming, he was polite, he told a sad story at the right moment, and he hammered McCain over and over again.

2) On the other hand, Palin needed to salvage her reputation, and I think she did that. She had her talking points memorized and delivered them well. The Republicans won the expectations game (how could they not?), and by that measure, Palin exceeded them. Ultimately, the McCain campaign will get more out of this debate than the Obama campaign.

3) It doesn't actually matter that much. Veep debates, as CmdrWilkens pointed out, have never had a huge impact on the race, and right now, the McCain campaign needs a huge impact. I do think this one could have more impact than most; more than with previous veeps, people are aware Sarah Palin may wind up in the Oval Office, and she's now demonstrated she can, in fact, speak in complete sentences. But overall, this wasn't any kind of game changer.

[Superman]

My prediction is that polls are going to show an overwhelming victory for Biden. The last debate was given to Obama, even though a case could probably be made for a tie. This debate wasn't even close to a tie.

[Duckie]

Superman vindicated, Mediacurves Stats Up!

Survey of about 1000-1200 people on the debate, live:

Washington Bailout

Code: Select all

D- 88% Biden, 12% Palin
I- 62% Biden, 38% Palin
R- 20% Biden, 79% Palin

Economic Meltdown

Code: Select all

D- 85% Biden, 15% Palin
I- 67% Biden, 33% Palin
R- 24% Biden, 76% Palin

Taxes

Code: Select all

D- 89% Biden, 11% Palin
I- 72% Biden, 28% Palin
R- 24% Biden, 76% Palin

Bankruptcy Bill

Code: Select all

D- 88% Biden, 12% Palin
I- 69% Biden, 31% Palin
R- 22% Biden, 78% Palin

Climate Change

Code: Select all

D- 83% Biden, 17% Palin
I- 64% Biden, 36% Palin
R- 16% Biden, 84% Palin

Benefits for Same-Sex Marriage

Code: Select all

D- 87% Biden, 13% Palin
I- 65% Biden, 35% Palin
R- 17% Biden, 83% Palin

Iraq War Exit Strategy

Code: Select all

D- 88% Biden, 12% Palin
I- 68% Biden, 32% Palin
R- 20% Biden, 80% Palin

Threat to the US [Iran/Pakistan]

Code: Select all

D- 87% Biden, 13% Palin
I- 66% Biden, 34% Palin
R- 18% Biden, 82% Palin

Use of Nuclear Weapons- Mediacurves has this duplicated by accident, the two were averaged to get the answers- in any case the differences were minor

Code: Select all

D- 85% Biden, 15% Palin
I- 67% Biden, 33% Palin
R- 18% Biden, 82% Palin

VP Responsibilities

Code: Select all

D- 87% Biden, 13% Palin
I- 72% Biden, 28% Palin
R- 23% Biden, 73% Palin

Winning the Debate

Code: Select all

D- 87% Biden, 11% Palin
I- 69% Biden, 31% Palin
R- 19% Biden, 80% Palin

Percentages are subject to rounding errors, sometimes do not add up to 100%.

Analysis-

Biden won the debate by the same margin as the Obama-McCain one, perhaps slightly stronger, and so gained a minor victory.

Biden's strongest 3 areas among Democrats- Taxes, Bailout Bill, Bankruptcy
Biden's strongest 3 areas among Independents- VP Responsibilities, Taxes, Bankruptcy Bill

Palin's strongest 3 areas among Independents- Bailout Bill, Climate Change, [Same Sex Marriage/Nuclear Weapons (TIED)]
Palin's strongest 3 areas among Republicans- Bailout Bill, Climate Change, [Threat to US/Nuclear Weapons (TIED)]

Biden's weakest 3 areas among Democrats- Economic Meltdown, Climate Change, Nuclear Weapons
Biden's weakest 3 areas among Independents- Bailout, Climate Change, Same-Sex Marriage

Palin's weakest 3 areas among Independents- VP Responsibilities, Taxes, Bankruptcy Bill
Palin's weakest 3 areas among Republicans- VP Responsibilities, Economic Meltdown, Taxes

Overall, Biden came out strong on Taxes and Bailout strongly, but seemed to almost draw the climate change and same-sex marriage debates. He, in absence of the expectations effect, should be awarded a minor win to moderate win.

Palin did not win a single section, but her strong areas on the bailout bill, climate change, nuclear weapons, same sex marriage, and iran/pakistan she came close to a wash. Palin's single worst issue was the VP responsibilities, where she was demolished among independents.

Both candidates took a very moderate stance on the economy, scoring higher with independents and less with their own party than expected.

A party effect was not witnessed- in the first debate Obama supporters and McCain supporters said their candidate won the debate despite losing all the issues. However, this did not appear happen here- if anything.

[Duckie]

Mediacurves

Ghetto edit, sorry, forgot my link.

[Cairber]

CBS instant poll and CNN instant poll both have Biden as the winner (no link at the moment, I am watching it on TV). I think the Obama camp will get something out of this debate. If you watched CNN, the independent voter tracker was a group of undecideds from Ohio and they really liked Biden a lot better.

In my canvassing over the past few days for Obama, Biden is BIG for him here in PA. People are always telling me how they like him. I think this debate shows that he is also a huge plus in Ohio, which is seen in that tracker CNN had on the screen. This debate, I think, will push Obama into the +3 range in the polls for Ohio next week.

[Medic]

*snip point 1*

2) On the other hand, Palin needed to salvage her reputation, and I think she did that. She had her talking points memorized and delivered them well. The Republicans won the expectations game (how could they not?), and by that measure, Palin exceeded them. Ultimately, the McCain campaign will get more out of this debate than the Obama campaign.

3) It doesn't actually matter that much. Veep debates, as CmdrWilkens pointed out, have never had a huge impact on the race, and right now, the McCain campaign needs a huge impact. I do think this one could have more impact than most; more than with previous veeps, people are aware Sarah Palin may wind up in the Oval Office, and she's now demonstrated she can, in fact, speak in complete sentences. But overall, this wasn't any kind of game changer.

Actually, I think a commentator on CNN had one great comment, ties into your 2nd 2: Palin helped HERSELF but not McCain. She didn't hurt McCain, directly, but neither did she ameliorate Biden's ripostes in her running mates direction, since her entire tact that debate was 'answer the question tangentially at best... and go into stump-speech mode.'

Among undecideds / independents, I'd call this in Obama / Biden's favor, if not by much, but in their favor and not a flat 'tie.'

[Superman]

I think anything less than Palin falling over and crying would be viewed as a debate victory by her supporters. The bar has been set so damn low that one of Fox's poll questions was "Did she do better than you expected?" I just wish her idiot followers would stop pretending that this isn't the case.

[Duckie]

Like I said, Biden's got a 69% victory in Independents over Palin's 31%, which puts him above Obama's victory level in the last debate. Without the expectations being lowered, it would have been called a "Sound Victory".

[Aratech]

I think anything less than Palin falling over and crying would be viewed as a debate victory by her supporters. The bar has been set so damn low that one of Fox's poll questions was "Did she do better than you expected?" I just wish her idiot followers would stop pretending that this isn't the case.

Bah! You're nothing more than a woman hating misogynist, trying to keep Palin from her rightfully earned place in the world!*


*Sorry if this is out of place, but I had one of those rabid fangirls proclaim something similar to me when I pointed out just how out of touch this lady was with reality.

[Medic]

FNC's text-message poll: 86-12 in Palin's favor as to who won it.
What can I say? I tried.

Just goes to show you though that this is very much an 'iPod nation.' (it was an N&P story... either you get my reference or you don't, cause I'm not digging back to link and drank too much to care... they turned off the AC in the barracks in September!... it's so fucking hot in here )

Point is, people tend to expose themselves ONLY to points of view they agree with, which is unfortunate.