Has McCain actually already LOST?(Yes he has)

[Gandalf]

This election is over. McCain has already lost and he lost the day Palin was unveiled with her less than savoury views and history. Even before that point there was only a fools hope for him.

What makes her any less savoury than Bush was eight years ago?

Remember, she's basically Bush with boobies. She has his "just folks" style, right down to mispronouncing "nuclear". The GOP doesn't need to reach 100% of Americans, just the people who elected them last time. Palin speaks to that pretty loudly.

[Tribun]

Something that concerns me are the polls in Colorado.
The Dever Post has them tied at 44.

Eh, any idea how useful a poll from the Denver Post is?

[CmdrWilkens]

This election is over. McCain has already lost and he lost the day Palin was unveiled with her less than savoury views and history. Even before that point there was only a fools hope for him.

What makes her any less savoury than Bush was eight years ago?

Remember, she's basically Bush with boobies. She has his "just folks" style, right down to mispronouncing "nuclear". The GOP doesn't need to reach 100% of Americans, just the people who elected them last time. Palin speaks to that pretty loudly.

it doesn't matter if she is more or less avory than Bush because:

1) She isn't at the top of the ticket
and
2) Historically and current VP picks usually have a net influence (that is more likely-less likely) in the single digit range.


If it was her running for the presidency she might still have an outside chance (though I doubt it in the current climate) but she isn't and for all the attentiton, rightfully, focused on her she isn't moving polls and neither is Biden. Moreover claiming she speaks loudly to the Bush folks currently flies in the face of her net favorability ratings where more folks view her unfavorably than view her favorably. Bush was and is as intellectually incurious as it is possible to be but his handlers made sure that he hdi it just enough, Palin has left her glaring shortfalls out there for everyone to see.

[RedImperator]

Something that concerns me are the polls in Colorado.
The Dever Post has them tied at 44.

Eh, any idea how useful a poll from the Denver Post is?

Presumably they know Colorado well; the Denver Post is the newspaper of record for that state. It's not inconceivable that they've tied in Colorado; it's been close there all year, and Colorado hasn't been whipped quite as hard by the economy as, say, Pennsylvania has. That said, it's only one poll. There will probably be some more released tomorrow.

[RedImperator]

The only thing that has me worried is never underestimate stupid people in large numbers.

Oh for Christ's sake. Another one.

[CmdrWilkens]

Something that concerns me are the polls in Colorado.
The Dever Post has them tied at 44.

Eh, any idea how useful a poll from the Denver Post is?

Depends upon who their pollster was. That being said look at just the last two weeks of polling from Colorado:

9/21 Ciruli Obama +1
9/21 PPP Obama +7
9/22 CNN Obama +2
9/23 Rasmussen Obama +3
9/23 Insider advantage Obama +9
9/24 ARG McCain +3
9/28 Rasmussen Obama +1

Now those numbers are all up and down and left to right but when 7 of the last 8 polls have an Obama lead (if narrowly) I'm inclined to think he's in good shape. Moreover Obama has a huge ground organization in Colorado to GTV compared against a very tepid McCain organization. If you give Obama a 1 or 2 point edge due to ground game then even within the close run average that a tied poll would suggest he still has the advantage.

[Tribun]

This analysis from Ohio is interesting:
The article

Amid growing concerns about the economy, Ohio Democrats are coming home to Sen. Barack Obama, giving him a 7-point advantage in a new Dispatch Poll as the volatile presidential campaign swings into its final month.

The Illinois senator's lead of 49 percent to 42 percent over Republican Sen. John McCain comes at an especially opportune time for Obama because thousands of Ohioans already are casting ballots in the state's first presidential election allowing any registered voter to vote absentee. The new setup takes away some of the heft from the adage "the only poll that counts is the one on Election Day."

Ohio is even more critical to McCain's campaign this year since he pulled out of Michigan last week. Not only has no Republican ever won the presidency without carrying the Buckeye State, McCain almost has to run the 2004 electoral table to win, carrying every single state President Bush won four years ago, including Ohio.

The Arizona senator is scheduled to appear in Cleveland on Wednesday, while Obama plans a two-day bus trip across Ohio this week.

Although both are attempting to persuade voters that they would bring about the change America needs, the survey shows that Ohioans are buying that message more from Obama, by a margin of 10 percentage points.

"It is not only a matter of change, but change for the better, and Obama has the better chance of securing that change," said poll participant Graig E. Kluge, 36, a Cleveland Heights real-estate investment manager.

"John McCain voted with Bush 90 percent of the time in 2007-08 and at least 70 percent before that. McCain will not push for the change that is needed for this country -- he is going to be much like Bush."

When respondents were asked to compare the vice presidential qualifications of the two running mates, Democrat Joe Biden was an easy winner over Republican Sarah Palin -- although virtually all the responses came before Thursday night's debate between the Delaware senator and Alaska governor. Biden was deemed more qualified by 55 percent, Palin by 35 percent.

"Their qualifications are worlds apart," said Bruce Tromp, 42, a software engineer from Springboro, near Cincinnati. "Biden has years of experience and is a skilled politician. Palin doesn't even seem to understand the issues, let alone be able to form an intelligent opinion on them."

The poll of 2,262 likely Ohio voters was conducted Sept. 24 through Friday, a period that spanned the first presidential debate and the vice presidential matchup, as well as Washington's response to the Wall Street meltdown. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2 percentage points, meaning Obama's actual lead could range from 5 points to 11 points.

Obama has committed more resources to Ohio and Florida than any other states, and it's showing in his substantial TV ad buys, the widespread push to get early voters to the polls, and a ground game entrenched in places that Democrats seldom win.

McCain's best hope might stem from the fact that Ohio traditionally leans toward the GOP and more moderate candidates, and the state party has one of the best organizations in the country. However, the Dispatch Poll shows a playing field that currently holds 10 percent more self-identified Democrats than Republicans.

In the first Dispatch Poll on the general election, McCain held a 1-point lead. In that survey, just before the parties' national conventions, Obama was struggling to gain the support of Democrats and those who had voted for Sen. Hillary Clinton in the March primary and for Gov. Ted Strickland in 2006.

Obama has made progress on all those fronts. For example, he had the backing of only half of Clinton's supporters in August; now he has support from two-thirds. And Obama's percentage among Democrats has increased by 10 points.

Respondent Craig Holderby is one Clinton backer who now is solidly behind Obama.

The 53-year-old chemical technician from Hilliard said he likes Obama's "fresh ideas," his youth and energy, and his lack of connections to big corporations or lobbyists.

"John McCain has turned into the right-wing neo-con that is willing to do or say anything to become president. He was a much better person (in) 2000 and before," Holderby said.

But it's not difficult to find McCain supporters -- and Obama detractors -- among those taking part in the poll.

"McCain is easily the best qualified," said Jack Wood, 44, a manager from Bexley. "His experience speaks for itself, and he has a history of bipartisanship, cooperation. He's demonstrated a willingness to compromise with Democrats on many issues and that gets things done."

Wood added, "Obama is greatly inexperienced and is a polarizing figure. He claims he'll be a uniter, but he has the most liberal Senate voting record in an unpopular partisan Congress."

Tracy Clyburn, 42, a medical transcriptionist from Amelia, east of Cincinnati, said, "I don't feel that Barack is a 'true American.' I don't believe that Barack has as much concern for out country as does McCain. It seems like he is in it for the fame. I really don't feel he has the experience to lead our country."

Robert Neeley Sr., 73, of Fairfield in southwestern Ohio, retired from the U.S. Air Force, goes even further.

"He is anti-American and his disrespect to our flag and our Bible proves it. He is a Muslim because his name and his beliefs show it. He is for everything that a Christian is against.

"I don't believe that he was actually born in the U.S. He has a lot of bad baggage."

[RedImperator]

If McCain loses Ohio, he's sunk. There just aren't 20 loose electoral votes on the map where he can make that up.

[Thanas]

I am actually looking at Palin at this point - it seems to me that she is setting herself up for another shot four years later or some other position. Notice how she didn't defend McCain in the debate - she made damm sure that everybody knew her. The debate was not really about the election, it was about what a good small time woman she is (I may be wrong, but that was the impression I got). Now we have her disagreeing with McCain's decision to pull out in Michigan.

It seems to me that she is trying to brand herself as the conservative candidate of the future.

[Eframepilot]

It seems to me that she is trying to brand herself as the conservative candidate of the future.

I'm not sure whether I should feel amused or terrified by that. Though the majority of the country doesn't like her much, the Republicans (and especially their Christofascist core) are madly in love with her. It's plausible that, with their irrational hatred of Obama and detachment from reality, they could wed themselves to her in a similar way to how the Democrats did with Obama in 2004. Despite her many, many, many, many flaws, they might actually run her in 2012.

If Obama has turned the country around by then, she would go down as hard as Goldwater in 1964. If things are still terrible, though...

[irishmick79]

If McCain loses Ohio, he's sunk. There just aren't 20 loose electoral votes on the map where he can make that up.

Yep. McCain absolutely has to defend OH, NC, VA, FL and CO right now. He loses any one of them, then the pressure is on him to pick off one of the Kerry states that Obama has to defend. He's not in good shape with the Kerry states, and if it is true that he's pulling out of PA as well as MI, his campaign is essentially sounding the retreat from a lot of Kerry ground. Regrouping from those losses and mounting an effective challenge in MN, WI and ME while at the same time defending Bush states against Obama's financial and organizational edge is a tall order indeed.

Right now McCain's campaign is on life support, and his best shot to change the momentum is probably in the debates. McCain is taking a huge gamble by taking the gloves off and going after Obama, because if he comes off like an angry old man on the attack during one of the debates, this election is over. Even if it pays off for him, it can stop the bleeding, but then the real question is how quickly can he make up lost ground?

[RedImperator]

I am actually looking at Palin at this point - it seems to me that she is setting herself up for another shot four years later or some other position. Notice how she didn't defend McCain in the debate - she made damm sure that everybody knew her. The debate was not really about the election, it was about what a good small time woman she is (I may be wrong, but that was the impression I got). Now we have her disagreeing with McCain's decision to pull out in Michigan.

It seems to me that she is trying to brand herself as the conservative candidate of the future.

I don't know if it's that so much as Biden was hitting McCain in places her talking points didn't cover. For her to defend McCain from Biden would have meant putting down the index cards and debating Biden on his own turf.

I do definitely catch a "Palin 2012" vibe coming from conservatives, but four years is a lifetime in politics. It remains to be seen how badly damaged Palin will be by this campaign (more than one commentator has likened her to a promising young prospect who's called up to the bigs too early, ruining his career).

[Thanas]

I am actually looking at Palin at this point - it seems to me that she is setting herself up for another shot four years later or some other position. Notice how she didn't defend McCain in the debate - she made damm sure that everybody knew her. The debate was not really about the election, it was about what a good small time woman she is (I may be wrong, but that was the impression I got). Now we have her disagreeing with McCain's decision to pull out in Michigan.

It seems to me that she is trying to brand herself as the conservative candidate of the future.

Ghetto edit: small town, not time. Damm it.

I don't know if it's that so much as Biden was hitting McCain in places her talking points didn't cover. For her to defend McCain from Biden would have meant putting down the index cards and debating Biden on his own turf.

Was it really? I mean, the debates were about general issues. Is it really too much to expect her own candidate's voting record to be brought up?

I do definitely catch a "Palin 2012" vibe coming from conservatives, but four years is a lifetime in politics. It remains to be seen how badly damaged Palin will be by this campaign (more than one commentator has likened her to a promising young prospect who's called up to the bigs too early, ruining his career).

Maybe. But I definitely think she is going to be a player in the future, if only because the conservative base will not blame her for the defeat - they will blame McCain. Now as for Palin, I do believe she will be damaged by the campaign, but I do not think it will matter to the base. Her electability is another issue, but the base loves her.

[Stormbringer]

This election is over. McCain has already lost and he lost the day Palin was unveiled with her less than savoury views and history. Even before that point there was only a fools hope for him.

What makes her any less savoury than Bush was eight years ago?

Remember, she's basically Bush with boobies. She has his "just folks" style, right down to mispronouncing "nuclear". The GOP doesn't need to reach 100% of Americans, just the people who elected them last time. Palin speaks to that pretty loudly.

Palin is an appeal to the base of the Republican party which effectively translates to the evangelical, anti-intellectual, and anti-government. That's her appeal and it did help solidify that base nicely. In that respect she's not much different than Bush, which certainly makes her less appealing to the crowd here. The gamble they took with her might have worked in better economic times as it would solidfy the Bush base nicely.

However, things have changed and the economic question is looming over the whole race like. People are scared as hell whether they'll have their job, life savings, and home. In that respect her folksy charm and gee shucks attitude are no help at all. In fact, they probably are acting as a repellent as they're too much like Bush. She's has the wrong sort of appeal to actually help in this race.

Amid growing concerns about the economy, Ohio Democrats are coming home to Sen. Barack Obama, giving him a 7-point advantage in a new Dispatch Poll as the volatile presidential campaign swings into its final month.

I wouldn't celebrate yet by any means. It's a single poll, not a continuing trend.

That said, it wouldn't surprise me. Ohio is a blue-collar state and is sharing in many of the same economic woes as Michigan, as I recall it has a lot of auto related industry, and there is simply going to a drastic re-shuffling of priorities.

I am actually looking at Palin at this point - it seems to me that she is setting herself up for another shot four years later or some other position. Notice how she didn't defend McCain in the debate - she made damm sure that everybody knew her. The debate was not really about the election, it was about what a good small time woman she is (I may be wrong, but that was the impression I got). Now we have her disagreeing with McCain's decision to pull out in Michigan.

It seems to me that she is trying to brand herself as the conservative candidate of the future.

The debate stance is probably more a result of the way she was prepped. No one was really expecting her to go on the offensive or even a vigorous defense. It was mostly about keeping from falling apart and embarassing herself. It may help her in the future but it was a calculation all about this election. It's the same strategy of weakness that's been driving her part in the campaign pretty much since her debut. She's been protected less the luster come off even faster. If she had actually gotten into a debate with Biden, she probably would have gotten metaphorically crushed.

I'd also point out, McCain is a very old man by now and has had numerous ailments. The last thing the Republicans want right now is a gaffe that makes people freaked out about the prospect of President Palin.

[Gandalf]

Palin is an appeal to the base of the Republican party which effectively translates to the evangelical, anti-intellectual, and anti-government. That's her appeal and it did help solidify that base nicely. In that respect she's not much different than Bush, which certainly makes her less appealing to the crowd here. The gamble they took with her might have worked in better economic times as it would solidfy the Bush base nicely.

However, things have changed and the economic question is looming over the whole race like. People are scared as hell whether they'll have their job, life savings, and home. In that respect her folksy charm and gee shucks attitude are no help at all. In fact, they probably are acting as a repellent as they're too much like Bush. She's has the wrong sort of appeal to actually help in this race.

How hard would it be to fix this with a few good press campaigns? Stop mentioning Obama, and just start talking economic issues. It doesn't matter whether or not the plan is feasible, it just has to convince enough people.

That leads to an interesting thought; If the current economic situation wasn't so serious, would the McCain/Palin ticket have legs?

[Tribun]

I just found out that the Colorado poll in the Denver Post was conducted by Mason-Dixon. Well, I think this answers my question how accurate it could be.

[Stormbringer]

How hard would it be to fix this with a few good press campaigns? Stop mentioning Obama, and just start talking economic issues. It doesn't matter whether or not the plan is feasible, it just has to convince enough people.

At this point, it's going to be very difficult for them to restore confidence in their ability to handle the economy. Both of them have suffered badly in that area and there's a lot of distrust. The challenge would be three-fold in that they would have to chip away at Obama's lead, actually find a policy America will accept, and then actually get it out the door. That's not easy to do in the course of a month.

That leads to an interesting thought; If the current economic situation wasn't so serious, would the McCain/Palin ticket have legs?

In better times, they almost certainly would have been the favorites at least. The Republicans have a definite edge but they're not at all invincible. And the McCain Palin ticket is far from their A-game.

[Falkenhayn]

Why Palin '12 and not Huckabee?

He'll be 57, his evangelical/far-right credentials are impeccable, and he actually has charm, wit, intellect and charisma. He made sure to fight the good fight for evangelical christianity in the primary process, even though McCain had things sown up, and he did suprisingly well. His message, for the last bit of the campaign, had large elements of economically based christian populism, which right now makes him look prescient. He's untainted by Bush, McCain, Palin's idiocy, and has a biblically grounded reason to distrust Wall Street. He's got a great life story, and successful executive experience (in Arkansas), and people won't remember him as a laughingstock. He's Palin, if Palin were actually someone to take seriously.

[Covenant]

Palin '12 because they've invested so much into this you betcha doggone ya' hey thar Sarah Sixpack image that it would be easy to see it translate across the years into a continued Republican tactic. It's also possible they're grooming the ginger-haired young Republican that we've seen in the economic woes, but Sarah could definately be dragged out of Alaska to have a second round of it. There's something about these moderately attractive women with terrifying politics that really excites that specific part of the population--it's the Ann Coulter fanclub group, I swear.

But Sarah's got no substance, so it's possible that the republican handlers are just gritting their teeth through this as all the congressmen spin for the cameras. She might be so unpleasent to work around that after the election they'll just bury her in a coal mine up north and forget about her. I tend to believe this is more likely, she's just not an experience candidate, and she's also not a change candidate. She's dumb and the only reason she's even able to tread water is this kind of no-thought gut-driven populism of the "I don't know much about things but I do know somthing about rednecks" variety.

But, if the Republican base continues to stuff you betcha wax in their ears, maybe she'll be their chosen banner to wave in '12. I have to imagine that the average republican voter is smarter than that, but I do admit I have no clue why anyone identifies with her, so I might be missing some really big aspect of her appeal.

[RedImperator]

I just found out that the Colorado poll in the Denver Post was conducted by Mason-Dixon. Well, I think this answers my question how accurate it could be.

Mason-Dixon is a respectable outfit, though they're strongest, obviously, in the South. I wouldn't write them off, but I would like to see more data before I worry about Colorado.

[Tribun]

The GOP has just sunk to a new low:

The Republican National Committee is hosting a conference call right now outlining the Federal Election Commission complaint it will file Monday accusing the Obama campaign of taking contributions from foreign nationals who are banned by U.S. law from giving to U.S. federal candidates.

"A wide scale problem for the Obama campaign," said RNC Chief Counsel Sean Cairncross.

So they realise they are outgunned on the money sector and try to accuse him now "he has too much money".

[Bounty]

How are they even going to make this stick? I'm sure there are US citizens abroad who sponsor Obama, just like there are non-vote-eligible foreigners in the US who buy an Obama shirt. Weeding through ever one of those donations sounds like it'd be virtually impossible.

And won't this backfire on them horribly? They get a few cheap points for the "hur hur Manchurian candidate, sponsored by frenchies" rhetoric, but I'd be surprised if there weren't a few foreign sponsors for McCain.

[Pablo Sanchez]

Palin '12 because they've invested so much into this you betcha doggone ya' hey thar Sarah Sixpack image that it would be easy to see it translate across the years into a continued Republican tactic. It's also possible they're grooming the ginger-haired young Republican that we've seen in the economic woes, but Sarah could definately be dragged out of Alaska to have a second round of it.

How is she going to stay in the news for the next four years if she goes back to Alaska? She was a complete non-factor in national politics until she was picked by McCain, and she will be so again if they lose. The consequence of being abruptly catapulted to national fame is a meteoric crash.

[Qwerty 42]

How are they even going to make this stick? I'm sure there are US citizens abroad who sponsor Obama, just like there are non-vote-eligible foreigners in the US who buy an Obama shirt. Weeding through ever one of those donations sounds like it'd be virtually impossible.

And won't this backfire on them horribly? They get a few cheap points for the "hur hur Manchurian candidate, sponsored by frenchies" rhetoric, but I'd be surprised if there weren't a few foreign sponsors for McCain.

Didn't McCain conduct a fundraiser overseas? That weasels around the rule because it doesn't technically mean that a foreign national donated.

[CmdrWilkens]

Palin '12 because they've invested so much into this you betcha doggone ya' hey thar Sarah Sixpack image that it would be easy to see it translate across the years into a continued Republican tactic. It's also possible they're grooming the ginger-haired young Republican that we've seen in the economic woes, but Sarah could definately be dragged out of Alaska to have a second round of it. There's something about these moderately attractive women with terrifying politics that really excites that specific part of the population--it's the Ann Coulter fanclub group, I swear.

But Sarah's got no substance, so it's possible that the republican handlers are just gritting their teeth through this as all the congressmen spin for the cameras. She might be so unpleasent to work around that after the election they'll just bury her in a coal mine up north and forget about her. I tend to believe this is more likely, she's just not an experience candidate, and she's also not a change candidate. She's dumb and the only reason she's even able to tread water is this kind of no-thought gut-driven populism of the "I don't know much about things but I do know somthing about rednecks" variety.

But, if the Republican base continues to stuff you betcha wax in their ears, maybe she'll be their chosen banner to wave in '12. I have to imagine that the average republican voter is smarter than that, but I do admit I have no clue why anyone identifies with her, so I might be missing some really big aspect of her appeal.

The thing is that she would still have to suffer through Troopergate and having been attached to the losing ticket. While Deomcratic candidates often come back after being on bad tickets (e.g. Edwards) the Republicans tend to dump unsuccessful tickets and relegate them to the minors again. Take a look at Dole who was a well respected, in Republican circles, senator who should easily have been able to stick around but after he got trounced he was gone.

While the base may like Palin they like Huckabee more and after watchign her go down in flames this election the party leadership will do its level best to keep her on the sidelines for the rest of her political career. Not in the least she openly pushed her Lt Governor to take on an established Congressman and has undercut support for Stevens once it became convenient for her. Despite Stevens' and Young's own troubles the party doesn't like backstabbers...when they lose. If she wins then she is in like flynn but if not then she will be demoted for daring to challenge the party elders.